Nonsense. Do a google search on “Distant conquered territory that benefit only the conquered” and you get exactly one hit: the made-up definition created for this post by Plan B. A REAL definition (that I did not make up) is “a country or area under the full or partial political control of another country, typically a distant one, and occupied by settlers from that country.” That definition fits Sai Latt’s thesis and has little to do with the “useless careless” form of analysis invariably offered by Plan B. Let’s face it: Javanese-dominated Indonesians have colonized the rest of the country. Burmans have colonized the rest of Myanmar, even the Siamese have colonized the rest of the country called Thailand. Don’t be thick.
Hi, Ed–I also wonder whether part of the reason is that a lot of Indonesians don’t fully understand the electoral system, i.e. they don’t understand that their vote in the legislative elections has an effect on which candidates will emerge as viable contenders in the presidential race. I found a lot of enthusiasm for Jokowi, but when I asked people about what they would do in the legislative race, many responded, “Golput!”
Thanks for your comment, Tom. The PDI-P candidates I met with mostly relied more on party structures than other candidates I spoke to but they were pretty much the same in terms of pork barrel and/or vote buying. They were mostly incumbents, though, so it’s possible that newcomers who didn’t have such resources relied more exclusively on Jokowi. And I should stress that I wasn’t mostly looking at the public campaign events – though I went to some – but asking them about how they built voter bases and voter lists.
I do agree it’s time to promote jokowi as a nation leader not just as a candidate from PDIP,he’s the real clean leader,different from other candidates,he deserves to be the Indonesian leader who will pay respect ti Human Rights,labors,and better concepts and budget controls
Thoroughly enjoyed this article, Ed. My own observations lead me to hypothesise that the *anticipated* Jokowi effect may have undermined the effectiveness of some PDIP candidates’ campaigns. Several of the (admittedly small number of) PDIP candidates and jurkam I saw on the campaign trail made heavy reference to Jokowi, ostensibly at the expense of more concrete promises to improve the lot of their local constituencies. Watching one incumbent encouraging a room full of less-than-enthused kades to cheer as he asked “Do you want Jokowi for president? Then you have to vote PDIP!” struck me as lazy campaigning. Did the expected Jokowi boost, particularly so close to the election, lull too many PDIP candidates into a false sense of security? I get the sense that some PDIP candidates actually relied too heavily on their party affiliation and overplayed the Jokowi factor – rather than running overly personalised campaigns, they might have failed to keep up with the pace set by candidates from other parties.
I believe the factor you mentioned won’t be a factor for quick count since they only cared about the party, not the candidates.
Iggy’s comment are more make sense. We, Indonesian people, are smarter than PDIP (Struggle Indonesian Democratic Party). They tried to dupe us by choosing Jokowi as their candidate but we knew the different between Jokowi as a person and his party.
And Jokowi Effect is actually a nonsense. PDIP lost in the current two regional governor election, North Sumatera and West Java, even though they put Jokowi as a campaign spokeperson.
Here, me and my friend, are joking today. Jokowi Effect are nothing amazing than ‘Bang Haji Effect’. Bang Haji refer to the Dangdut icon Rhoma Irama, from PKB.
> “The point is the voting system is not fit for purpose, logically, morally and very likely legally for a truly representative democracy.”
I understand you’re arguing logically, you might even think you’re arguing from a moral standpoint, but legally? – in nine paragraphs I was hoping you’d expand. And why is this only about Thai democracy?
You’re obviously passionate, Rohin, and that’s admirable. But your proposals would have made no difference at the last election, correct? The anti-democratic elements prevented enough candidate registrations, and padlocked enough polling stations, that the elections were declared null and void. Or are you saying that with ‘NOTA’ there would have been none of these obstructions and voting could have proceeded, and would not have been nullified?
If the balance is such that “you give us NOTA or we padlock the polling stations” then I think we need to hold off until there’s a whole lot more maturity and rule of law – or else next time round they’ll be obstructing voting again demanding further tweaks. The electoral process needs some kind of sanctity.
Is it also possible that some voters are sophisticated enough to distinguish between candidates for the legislature and for the presidency? They may favor Jokowi for president, but prefer local representatives from other parties.
They would do this either on the basis of polling/media hype suggesting PDI-P would gain 20% of the legislative vote, or make the fair assumption that the PDI-P will cobble together a coalition to nominate him if they fall short, as looks likely.
I wonder whether anyone did any exit polling about how people had just voted, versus their presidential round voting intentions.
Apart from various weakness (or the way I view it) that Jokowi carries around, one of the main question would be, “Who would be in charge if he were to be elected? The party leader/chief/etc or the President?”
I do not live in Jakarta and I have not experienced much of so called achievement by Jokowi but there are few points that are obvious.
1. He either did not intervene or fail to control price increase due to inflation by the sudden 70% increase in Salary in 2013. 1 Kg of Garlic went from Rp.20,000,- to Rp.100,000,- in less than a month time. The news was also posted in Singapore Straits times.
I have no heard a single word for “restraint” on these price hike, and I certainly did not read any news about him telling merchants not to increase price during Lebaran (which Malaysia did).
2. Building of Jakarta MRT. Which really makes me wonder, if Jakarta is sinking at the rate of 10cm and planned “solution” seawall was “expected” to be built in 2025. What will remain of Jakarta and the new MRT in 10 years time, assuming average sink rate annually is 10cm (some area seems to sink at 30cm).
Jokowi definitely seems to be better choice, but I definitely do not see he will win by landslide, at least not at current state.
Those poor Malaysians are currently in a state of deep funk. They’re currently disassociating themselves from the ‘nation-state’ – from pulling their kids out of schools, to habitually demeaning the state itself as vehicle run for, and by muslims only. The Indonesians seem to have embarked on a campaign of thumbing their noses at their neighbours – perhaps this is an evolutionary phase – sadly the Malaysians went through it too.
> “the total sale of batik crafts amounted to as much as RM 62.5 million, which is 0.0118% of Malaysia’s GNP”
Wow. I don’t know why so many decimal places when we have ‘as much as’ in that sentence – not really worth mentioning at all, is it? Would it not have been more useful to compare the market to, say, leather goods, bondage accessories or hijabs?
But anyway those discontented middle classes in Malaysia don’t care about Indonesia or batik* – they just don’t like the direction the country is going.
* ‘wax-resistant dyeing technique’ – ah, that form of resist dyeing, using wax …
I agree. Pasuk Phongpaichit pointed out since the 1990s, there has been a tectonic shift in whare political power resides. The provincial elites began asserting themselves as early as the 1970s, and over the decades have taken a larger share of the stakes. In addition, the provinces have become a lot more prosperous since Thaksin was first elected. The combined effects of cheap health care and the Village Funds has changed tens of millions of lives for the better. Sure, there have been abuses, but I don’t think the Bangkok elite really grasp what they are proposing to take away from the people in the provinces.
[…] Petir) standing for the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), in a Jakarta electorate in whichIndonesia’s overseas diaspora makes up half the constituency. Destiya Purna Panca (better known as Destiara Talita) is also running on a PKPI ticket. A men’s […]
The main attractions in legislative election are local identities and faces which adorns the huge ballot paper, it would hardly be Jokowi.
Voters tend to vote for persons who they know in person or someone who is perceived to represent the local identities, regardless of which party he or she represents.
Yes, reading the last few posts about the Jokowi effect I think I agree. Party politics and the behaviour of presidential candidates must shape legislative results to an extent. But we also know that caleg ran highly personal campaigns, received little party support, and most believed that using money and building personal relationships with their electorate were the key ingredients for success. If this is true, perhaps the high hopes that Jokowi’s popularity would boost the popularity of individual PDIP candidates across the country were a little misplaced…..
Fine observation, as usual. If this politically-iliterate biz girl can offer her two cents, here’s what she thinks:
The so-called Jokowi Effect. I remember the afternoon it gained mass attention (although it might’ve been coined beforehand). It was the afternoon JCI jolted after Mega’s mandat announcement. I’m quite politically illiterate, but capital market was something I dealt with and survived during the tumultous 1997-1999 krismon. Markets always temporarily jolt and dive for various reasons– biz, political, weather, you name it– but market will absorb that shock and return to previous normal again soon. That jolt that afternoon was normal, rather expected even, but it was just that. It was never a true market shift that can only comes from fundamental changes, like what hapened during the aforementioned Asian monetary crisis. But the hullaballoo about that afternoon’s jolt was immediately factored in to build grand assumptions about a Jokowi Effect by every political pundit and his cousin.
Secondly– has anybody ever thought that maybe not even enough Jakartans, let alone Indonesians, are wowed by Jokowi’s achievement records to date to catapult him into the highest office? Perhaps Indonesian voters are just that simple & straightforward. I know I am.
Shhuh, gotta board my flight. Laters, Oom. Thanks and cheers.
[…] Reports from the ABC suggest that the PDI-P cleaned up in Australia, with polling booths in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane reporting more than a 50% share of the vote to the PDI-P. Voters from Indonesians overseas are counted toward the Jakart II electorate. […]
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Colonialism and ethnic conflict in Burma
Nonsense. Do a google search on “Distant conquered territory that benefit only the conquered” and you get exactly one hit: the made-up definition created for this post by Plan B. A REAL definition (that I did not make up) is “a country or area under the full or partial political control of another country, typically a distant one, and occupied by settlers from that country.” That definition fits Sai Latt’s thesis and has little to do with the “useless careless” form of analysis invariably offered by Plan B. Let’s face it: Javanese-dominated Indonesians have colonized the rest of the country. Burmans have colonized the rest of Myanmar, even the Siamese have colonized the rest of the country called Thailand. Don’t be thick.
Why was the Jokowi effect limited?
Hi, Ed–I also wonder whether part of the reason is that a lot of Indonesians don’t fully understand the electoral system, i.e. they don’t understand that their vote in the legislative elections has an effect on which candidates will emerge as viable contenders in the presidential race. I found a lot of enthusiasm for Jokowi, but when I asked people about what they would do in the legislative race, many responded, “Golput!”
Why was the Jokowi effect limited?
Thanks for your comment, Tom. The PDI-P candidates I met with mostly relied more on party structures than other candidates I spoke to but they were pretty much the same in terms of pork barrel and/or vote buying. They were mostly incumbents, though, so it’s possible that newcomers who didn’t have such resources relied more exclusively on Jokowi. And I should stress that I wasn’t mostly looking at the public campaign events – though I went to some – but asking them about how they built voter bases and voter lists.
The Jokowi Effect: No Breakthrough Against Oligarchy
I do agree it’s time to promote jokowi as a nation leader not just as a candidate from PDIP,he’s the real clean leader,different from other candidates,he deserves to be the Indonesian leader who will pay respect ti Human Rights,labors,and better concepts and budget controls
Why was the Jokowi effect limited?
Thoroughly enjoyed this article, Ed. My own observations lead me to hypothesise that the *anticipated* Jokowi effect may have undermined the effectiveness of some PDIP candidates’ campaigns. Several of the (admittedly small number of) PDIP candidates and jurkam I saw on the campaign trail made heavy reference to Jokowi, ostensibly at the expense of more concrete promises to improve the lot of their local constituencies. Watching one incumbent encouraging a room full of less-than-enthused kades to cheer as he asked “Do you want Jokowi for president? Then you have to vote PDIP!” struck me as lazy campaigning. Did the expected Jokowi boost, particularly so close to the election, lull too many PDIP candidates into a false sense of security? I get the sense that some PDIP candidates actually relied too heavily on their party affiliation and overplayed the Jokowi factor – rather than running overly personalised campaigns, they might have failed to keep up with the pace set by candidates from other parties.
Network monarchy’s twilight
I was there 40 years before Thaksin and watch the precursors of Democrats rip off the Thai people… DUH!
Why was the Jokowi effect limited?
I believe the factor you mentioned won’t be a factor for quick count since they only cared about the party, not the candidates.
Iggy’s comment are more make sense. We, Indonesian people, are smarter than PDIP (Struggle Indonesian Democratic Party). They tried to dupe us by choosing Jokowi as their candidate but we knew the different between Jokowi as a person and his party.
And Jokowi Effect is actually a nonsense. PDIP lost in the current two regional governor election, North Sumatera and West Java, even though they put Jokowi as a campaign spokeperson.
Here, me and my friend, are joking today. Jokowi Effect are nothing amazing than ‘Bang Haji Effect’. Bang Haji refer to the Dangdut icon Rhoma Irama, from PKB.
Hot on the hustings–Indonesia’s ‘caleg cantik’
caleg cantik.. they only a doll, politic doll..
Thailand’s fairest reform?
> “The point is the voting system is not fit for purpose, logically, morally and very likely legally for a truly representative democracy.”
I understand you’re arguing logically, you might even think you’re arguing from a moral standpoint, but legally? – in nine paragraphs I was hoping you’d expand. And why is this only about Thai democracy?
Thailand’s fairest reform?
You’re obviously passionate, Rohin, and that’s admirable. But your proposals would have made no difference at the last election, correct? The anti-democratic elements prevented enough candidate registrations, and padlocked enough polling stations, that the elections were declared null and void. Or are you saying that with ‘NOTA’ there would have been none of these obstructions and voting could have proceeded, and would not have been nullified?
If the balance is such that “you give us NOTA or we padlock the polling stations” then I think we need to hold off until there’s a whole lot more maturity and rule of law – or else next time round they’ll be obstructing voting again demanding further tweaks. The electoral process needs some kind of sanctity.
Why was the Jokowi effect limited?
Is it also possible that some voters are sophisticated enough to distinguish between candidates for the legislature and for the presidency? They may favor Jokowi for president, but prefer local representatives from other parties.
They would do this either on the basis of polling/media hype suggesting PDI-P would gain 20% of the legislative vote, or make the fair assumption that the PDI-P will cobble together a coalition to nominate him if they fall short, as looks likely.
I wonder whether anyone did any exit polling about how people had just voted, versus their presidential round voting intentions.
A sight for sore eyes?
“don’t pick me: the mandate will be heavy for me” < like it!
The Jokowi Effect: No Breakthrough Against Oligarchy
Apart from various weakness (or the way I view it) that Jokowi carries around, one of the main question would be, “Who would be in charge if he were to be elected? The party leader/chief/etc or the President?”
I do not live in Jakarta and I have not experienced much of so called achievement by Jokowi but there are few points that are obvious.
1. He either did not intervene or fail to control price increase due to inflation by the sudden 70% increase in Salary in 2013. 1 Kg of Garlic went from Rp.20,000,- to Rp.100,000,- in less than a month time. The news was also posted in Singapore Straits times.
I have no heard a single word for “restraint” on these price hike, and I certainly did not read any news about him telling merchants not to increase price during Lebaran (which Malaysia did).
2. Building of Jakarta MRT. Which really makes me wonder, if Jakarta is sinking at the rate of 10cm and planned “solution” seawall was “expected” to be built in 2025. What will remain of Jakarta and the new MRT in 10 years time, assuming average sink rate annually is 10cm (some area seems to sink at 30cm).
Jokowi definitely seems to be better choice, but I definitely do not see he will win by landslide, at least not at current state.
Anti-Malaysianism gone wild
Those poor Malaysians are currently in a state of deep funk. They’re currently disassociating themselves from the ‘nation-state’ – from pulling their kids out of schools, to habitually demeaning the state itself as vehicle run for, and by muslims only. The Indonesians seem to have embarked on a campaign of thumbing their noses at their neighbours – perhaps this is an evolutionary phase – sadly the Malaysians went through it too.
> “the total sale of batik crafts amounted to as much as RM 62.5 million, which is 0.0118% of Malaysia’s GNP”
Wow. I don’t know why so many decimal places when we have ‘as much as’ in that sentence – not really worth mentioning at all, is it? Would it not have been more useful to compare the market to, say, leather goods, bondage accessories or hijabs?
But anyway those discontented middle classes in Malaysia don’t care about Indonesia or batik* – they just don’t like the direction the country is going.
* ‘wax-resistant dyeing technique’ – ah, that form of resist dyeing, using wax …
Network monarchy’s twilight
I agree. Pasuk Phongpaichit pointed out since the 1990s, there has been a tectonic shift in whare political power resides. The provincial elites began asserting themselves as early as the 1970s, and over the decades have taken a larger share of the stakes. In addition, the provinces have become a lot more prosperous since Thaksin was first elected. The combined effects of cheap health care and the Village Funds has changed tens of millions of lives for the better. Sure, there have been abuses, but I don’t think the Bangkok elite really grasp what they are proposing to take away from the people in the provinces.
Indonesia’s Overseas Vote: Time for Secession?
[…] Petir) standing for the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), in a Jakarta electorate in whichIndonesia’s overseas diaspora makes up half the constituency. Destiya Purna Panca (better known as Destiara Talita) is also running on a PKPI ticket. A men’s […]
The Jokowi Effect: No Breakthrough Against Oligarchy
The main attractions in legislative election are local identities and faces which adorns the huge ballot paper, it would hardly be Jokowi.
Voters tend to vote for persons who they know in person or someone who is perceived to represent the local identities, regardless of which party he or she represents.
Over-reading the ‘presidential effect’
Yes, reading the last few posts about the Jokowi effect I think I agree. Party politics and the behaviour of presidential candidates must shape legislative results to an extent. But we also know that caleg ran highly personal campaigns, received little party support, and most believed that using money and building personal relationships with their electorate were the key ingredients for success. If this is true, perhaps the high hopes that Jokowi’s popularity would boost the popularity of individual PDIP candidates across the country were a little misplaced…..
The Jokowi Effect: No Breakthrough Against Oligarchy
Dear Oom W,
Fine observation, as usual. If this politically-iliterate biz girl can offer her two cents, here’s what she thinks:
The so-called Jokowi Effect. I remember the afternoon it gained mass attention (although it might’ve been coined beforehand). It was the afternoon JCI jolted after Mega’s mandat announcement. I’m quite politically illiterate, but capital market was something I dealt with and survived during the tumultous 1997-1999 krismon. Markets always temporarily jolt and dive for various reasons– biz, political, weather, you name it– but market will absorb that shock and return to previous normal again soon. That jolt that afternoon was normal, rather expected even, but it was just that. It was never a true market shift that can only comes from fundamental changes, like what hapened during the aforementioned Asian monetary crisis. But the hullaballoo about that afternoon’s jolt was immediately factored in to build grand assumptions about a Jokowi Effect by every political pundit and his cousin.
Secondly– has anybody ever thought that maybe not even enough Jakartans, let alone Indonesians, are wowed by Jokowi’s achievement records to date to catapult him into the highest office? Perhaps Indonesian voters are just that simple & straightforward. I know I am.
Shhuh, gotta board my flight. Laters, Oom. Thanks and cheers.
Lynda Ibrahim
Indonesia’s Overseas Vote: Time for Secession?
[…] Reports from the ABC suggest that the PDI-P cleaned up in Australia, with polling booths in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane reporting more than a 50% share of the vote to the PDI-P. Voters from Indonesians overseas are counted toward the Jakart II electorate. […]