“England”, don’t Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland’s joint interests in the United Kingdom get a say in the UN Security Council? No wonder Alex Salmond wants to break away from the Union!
Killing is never ok. How many times is it needed to repeat that? However, there’s a huge difference between killings that occur during a confrontation that both parties knowingly participate in and killing of unarmed demonstrators and bystanders, particularly when the obvious aim of the action is to kill and injure as many as possible. In the last case, it’s obvious that the killers want to scare people away from participating in legal demonstrations or even be in the same area, with whatever means available. Why is this so difficult to understand?
To the poster hiding behind guest:
All farmers in Thailand have too little access to social resources, but while farmers i Isan mostly harvest rice once per year, farmers in Central Thailand harvest three times, the same as many farmers in India, Cambodia and Vietnam. Because of this, farmers from Central Thailand obviously have a better economy as well as more frequent needs for mechanical farm equipment, which makes the investment more profitable. Also because of this, and among other reasons, the cost of growing rice per ton is higher in Thailand than in those other countries. Even with only one yearly harvest, the farmer has to eat all year.
This is also the reason why it is so important to build infrastructure in Isan, so that other industry can prosper and offer work possibilities, both in the cities and rural areas.
The damage the demonstrators are doing to the Thai economy is a dubious tactic, but the reds did the same in 2010 and the yellows again before that. With the current political landscape in Thailand, I doubt that this will end soon unless radical change is implemented. The politicians are mostly corrupt, greedy and incompetent with little thought for the country as a whole, and the losing party will take to the street after the next elections too, led by some charismatic (in Thai terms) bully.
I believe the only chance for this nation is to find a unifying leader who can be trusted by all. It would be tempting to suggest a “grand coalition” like they have in Germany at the moment, but unfortunately, Thai politicians of opposite views are very flexible if they cooperate towards a common target. Most of them have: It’s called money.
Do you think they’ll be informed about killings of children and other innocent bystanders at demonstration sites, terrorizing of farmers in red district that have the wrong political opinions and red leaders instigating violence to fight the opposition?
There’s a big difference between having armed guards at a demonstration site and attacking unarmed demonstrators and bystanders with the aim of killing or injuring as many as possible.
Do you condone killing children to achieve your political aims?
Hindu kings were of the warrior caste and never took on religious leadership. Buddhist kings did not represent any divinity because there is no divinity in Buddhism.
That Geertz said it does not necessarily make it true. We must not forget Mueller, the (in)famous historian who squeezed the vedic timeline in order to fit the biblical version of creation. Historians often have either an agenda or a preconceived idea about the history.
The problem with questioning an academic opinion is that one is expected to do extensive research and quote authorities. So they often go unchallenged.
What I understand is that, in SE Asia (as in India), the people tended to (or were forced to) adopt the religion of the king. The king enjoyed absolute power over the priesthood so he could effect religious rulings. But he was never the religious head nor did he represent divinity, like the Emperor of Japan did.
The Sultan becoming the head of the religion surely began with Islam, in the tradition of the Caliphate.
“anything too ugly, depressing and politically pointed is soon muffled by adorable shenanigans and beauty shots of the landscape” – according to the mixed-up-sounding review in the New York Times. The film isn’t destroyed like Oliver Stone’s Heaven & Earth by the presence of stunningly incongruous landscapes in every single scene, I hope.
It’s supposed to get a digital release sometime in March so I hope I’ll get to watch it. The character of Uncle Purple looks compelling – I just hope the camera stays off the landscapes and cute kids long enough to lend the film some edginess.
JFL.
Interesting point. But recognize that one of the most important reforms that came with the transfer of the management of elections from the Ministry of Interior to the ECT was that votes are counted publicly. Lots of people do go along to watch. This has got rid of ballot-stuffing and other crude manipulation. And it’s made it harder to fix the figures.
I’m not sure what figures from Khun Atchara you’re referring to. A lot of the press presentation was confusing because in the reporting of no votes and spoiled votes, sometimes the percentages were based on the full electorate and sometimes on the turnout. That’s why I’ve based everything on the full electorate.
The spoiled votes were not unusually high in the south. Remember that in most of the southern provinces, the election was obstructed, so we have results for only the four ‘far south’ provinces and Prachuap. Against a national average for spoiled votes of 5.7% of the electorate, the four far south provinces recorded: 6.7, 6.5, 3.9, 7.7. Around the average. In Prachuap, spoiled votes were only 2.9% (but the turnout was very, very low).
If there is any suspicion about the ‘spoiled vote’ count, it’s in the north. There were only six provinces where the spoiled voted exceeded 10% (of the electorate), and these were all in the north (Phetchabun, Nan, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Mae Hong Son). As I noted in the original post, both the spoiled and ‘no’ votes are unusually high in the north, and I don’t know why. Does anyone have any suggestions?
By the way, a couple of days after the original post, a revised version of the same figures became available. The adjustments were all very small, except for Bangkok. In the earlier figures, the percentages for no-show:bad+no:valid in Bangkok were 83:5:11. In the revised they are 74:8:18. As noted in the original post, because of the obstructed vote in five constituencies, these figures significantly overestimate the ‘no-show’ percentage, but it’s impossible to correct the calculation with the data available.
I’m not charging Chris Baker with the combination and obfuscation … I imagine that it is a ‘righteous’ member of the Thai ‘middle class’, a slave of the Absolute Democracy, who has furnished the numbers combined – so that all the king’s horses and all the king’s men cannot take the ‘no!’ slash ‘no vote!’ apart again.
As Alex points out with his link above, a voter stirring his/her stumps and casting any vote at all was voting for democracy.
I thought so too. I usually read Chris’s stuff with genuine interest and quite a lot of agreement.
That said, a few other pundits on the local scene are perhaps about as transparent as the various governments they love to hate and favor. I often get the impression, when I look at this site, that many of the posters are feeling the pinch of an expensive education. And necessity is the mother of invention. Which I strongly doubt is really conducive to having an open mind about systems that don’t quite fit neatly with the current international obsession with ‘growth’. Making enough for a luxury yacht before the next spring tide, so to speak.
As Suthep is undoubtedly a free-market neanderthal, it automatically follows that there is not a single grain of truth in any of his complaints. Only being hugely corrupt and nepotistic is not nearly enough to curry global favor these days. The fashion-conscious pundit will likely swallow almost any bollocks if it is wrapped up in a professional-looking PR package run by a celebrity spin-doctor. Kamnan Suthep really does need to get a life. And presumably one that involves meetings in Manchester and Dubai, houses in Hong Kong and Croydon, and meetings with voodoo men in Myanmar. Go out and consume conspicuously Kamnan Suthep, and the whole world will soon think your bullshit and hypocrisy is absolutely wonderful stuff. So get with the system! Dozens of NM academics can’t be wrong!
The truth lies all around us, but it is remarkable how few people really notice it. Or perhaps the difference is that I am actually on the ground here, and get to hear about and see some of the victims of this nasty little mafia war. One enterprising local businessman who was assassinated at the end of the street – probably because he was in business competition with a brother-in-arms. And a couple of local mayors who brought into the package. One ended up bumping off his rival. Punished? Not in the slightest! And many more. Of course, it DOES work both ways. I stick to just working for a basic wage here. Outsiders are crazy to think about running an actual business. Anymore than that and you inevitably end up having to do favors for people you despise.
Re: George’s comment. One could just as easily say the same about Peua Thai and the Redshirts. I recently met an old acquaintance who works in a university – who mentioned marrying a few years back. Happy? Not really? No one locally wanted to know them. It appears the partner is a known Peua Thai vote canvasser. And also now a partner in a rather dodgy rice trading start-up. But not in his own home area. The derogatory term ‘carpetbagger’ easily springs to mind. And is probably entirely deserved. That’s the price you pay for trying to continually jump the queue.
You are on pretty weak ground talking about infrastructure contracts too. I wouldn’t deny there is a lot of truth in what you say, but Thaksin governments have a very long history of winning big on big contracts. And their desire to hang on in government at any cost is almost certainly an indication that MPs haven’t yet extracted quite as much out of the system as they had hoped.
Imagine having your relatives and friends slaughtered, and your property destroyed. And all for the sake of a couple of stupidly thuggish succession factions, who mostly have little more in mind than monopolizing the country’s wealth for their own sake. You may not have to imagine much longer. Highly likely outcome = Two separate states STILL repressively controlled by either the ancient ammart or the nouveau riche ammart. (Or an army mafia State vs a police mafia state.) There will obviously be a FEW winners from such a scenario. Not the you and I amongst us who already live here (rather tenuously), for sure. And most certainly not the people who already act as cannon fodder for the color-coded goon squads. Or the vast majority who don’t fall into the above categories. It will, of course, have little or no impact on academics – apart from creating an interesting local example of civil war to analyze in great depth and get all excited about.
The very least we can do to avoid the now seemingly almost unavoidable is to stop showing even the slightest support or sympathy for either faction.
Disappointed, You forget to mention many other important characteristics of thai lakorn
-the hero can rape the heroine and it is okay because he love the heroine so much he rape her and they will be end up together anyway. The hero can not be charged with anything.
-the heroine is always a virgin, if not, she has lost it to the hero, obviously
-the hero will save the heroine just in time before the villains rape her.
-you can instantly tell who is the female villain just by her revealing dress and her flashy makeup
-The female villain is a flirty girl. She tried to seduce the hero but he will never sleep with her unless she drug him, causing the hero and heroine to break up.
-At the end the female villain is raped or go crazy or become a handicapped and she deserves all of this because she is a bad girl.
I have read thai lakorns for ten years from Thai Rath when I was in Prathom to Matayom. Finally I gave up and decided they are all the same. Nowadays, not a thing has change. Just different set of there 4 characters in different settings.
I have stated several times that I don’t believe there’s a role for Khun Suthep i a future democratic Thailand. Furthermore, I do not think he was in Trat killing people last night. Is your posting a way of rationalising the massacre? Do you believe shooting peaceful, innocent demonstrators and bystanders is acceptable?
I’m troubled by the combination of ‘No! votes’ and EC generated ‘no votes!’. In the USA, anyway, ‘spoilage’ is the favored way to corrupt the vote. Ohio may be the state champion, there.
But never have I seen such high spoilage votes as Khun Achara showed in the South of Thailand.
I presume the percentage of EC-generated ‘no votes!’ was high throughout the country … but for some reason their relative percentage was kept secret here.
The success, or not, of the police operation hardly matters as the protesters have a sure-fire way of ‘retaking’ any area of Bangkok they desire. It goes like this: 1) walk/drive in the general direction of the target, 2) stay put once you’ve got there. It even works with airports. The police have no option but to clear out – and that was before the court decision last week.
Thank you my friend. You have said it all: “While farmers in some parts of the country are poor, farming is an industry, and the farmers use the tools available to them. Farmers in Thailand have used tractors and combine harvesters for decades. Harvesting by hand is still done in some of the poor areas, particularly where the yield is low, but that’s not where the bulk of the rice comes from.”
You have just confirmed that there are great disparities among the Thai farmers. Could it be that in all these years the rural Isaan and Lanna farmers have limited access to social resources and other governmental resources distribution? Is this the reason why these areas are so poor? Why are you so excite about the protestors/PDRC doing harm to the Thai’s economy and to the Thai people? This is aught to be a moral issue for everyone on this forum. A little reminder of what to come for society where gap between the rich and the poor widen too large. According to Lancet, “it is now well established that the more unequal the society, the worse the outcomes for all-including those at the top.”
FYI: Don’t tell me I know nothing about rural Isaan, Bangkok, or Thailand.
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The weakness of the Thai royalists
“England”, don’t Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland’s joint interests in the United Kingdom get a say in the UN Security Council? No wonder Alex Salmond wants to break away from the Union!
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Killing is never ok. How many times is it needed to repeat that? However, there’s a huge difference between killings that occur during a confrontation that both parties knowingly participate in and killing of unarmed demonstrators and bystanders, particularly when the obvious aim of the action is to kill and injure as many as possible. In the last case, it’s obvious that the killers want to scare people away from participating in legal demonstrations or even be in the same area, with whatever means available. Why is this so difficult to understand?
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Shorter J├╕rgen Udvang: Killing is ok as long as the deaths are red shirts.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
To the poster hiding behind guest:
All farmers in Thailand have too little access to social resources, but while farmers i Isan mostly harvest rice once per year, farmers in Central Thailand harvest three times, the same as many farmers in India, Cambodia and Vietnam. Because of this, farmers from Central Thailand obviously have a better economy as well as more frequent needs for mechanical farm equipment, which makes the investment more profitable. Also because of this, and among other reasons, the cost of growing rice per ton is higher in Thailand than in those other countries. Even with only one yearly harvest, the farmer has to eat all year.
This is also the reason why it is so important to build infrastructure in Isan, so that other industry can prosper and offer work possibilities, both in the cities and rural areas.
The damage the demonstrators are doing to the Thai economy is a dubious tactic, but the reds did the same in 2010 and the yellows again before that. With the current political landscape in Thailand, I doubt that this will end soon unless radical change is implemented. The politicians are mostly corrupt, greedy and incompetent with little thought for the country as a whole, and the losing party will take to the street after the next elections too, led by some charismatic (in Thai terms) bully.
I believe the only chance for this nation is to find a unifying leader who can be trusted by all. It would be tempting to suggest a “grand coalition” like they have in Germany at the moment, but unfortunately, Thai politicians of opposite views are very flexible if they cooperate towards a common target. Most of them have: It’s called money.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Do you think they’ll be informed about killings of children and other innocent bystanders at demonstration sites, terrorizing of farmers in red district that have the wrong political opinions and red leaders instigating violence to fight the opposition?
The weakness of the Thai royalists
There’s a big difference between having armed guards at a demonstration site and attacking unarmed demonstrators and bystanders with the aim of killing or injuring as many as possible.
Do you condone killing children to achieve your political aims?
Malaysia’s “Devarajas”
Hindu kings were of the warrior caste and never took on religious leadership. Buddhist kings did not represent any divinity because there is no divinity in Buddhism.
That Geertz said it does not necessarily make it true. We must not forget Mueller, the (in)famous historian who squeezed the vedic timeline in order to fit the biblical version of creation. Historians often have either an agenda or a preconceived idea about the history.
The problem with questioning an academic opinion is that one is expected to do extensive research and quote authorities. So they often go unchallenged.
What I understand is that, in SE Asia (as in India), the people tended to (or were forced to) adopt the religion of the king. The king enjoyed absolute power over the priesthood so he could effect religious rulings. But he was never the religious head nor did he represent divinity, like the Emperor of Japan did.
The Sultan becoming the head of the religion surely began with Islam, in the tradition of the Caliphate.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Be careful what you celebrate Jo:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/396657/popcorn-is-the-buzzword-of-the-day
https://twitter.com/ShitNigSays/status/437089519624413184/photo/1
Banning The Rocket
“anything too ugly, depressing and politically pointed is soon muffled by adorable shenanigans and beauty shots of the landscape” – according to the mixed-up-sounding review in the New York Times. The film isn’t destroyed like Oliver Stone’s Heaven & Earth by the presence of stunningly incongruous landscapes in every single scene, I hope.
It’s supposed to get a digital release sometime in March so I hope I’ll get to watch it. The character of Uncle Purple looks compelling – I just hope the camera stays off the landscapes and cute kids long enough to lend the film some edginess.
Thai election by the numbers
JFL.
Interesting point. But recognize that one of the most important reforms that came with the transfer of the management of elections from the Ministry of Interior to the ECT was that votes are counted publicly. Lots of people do go along to watch. This has got rid of ballot-stuffing and other crude manipulation. And it’s made it harder to fix the figures.
I’m not sure what figures from Khun Atchara you’re referring to. A lot of the press presentation was confusing because in the reporting of no votes and spoiled votes, sometimes the percentages were based on the full electorate and sometimes on the turnout. That’s why I’ve based everything on the full electorate.
The spoiled votes were not unusually high in the south. Remember that in most of the southern provinces, the election was obstructed, so we have results for only the four ‘far south’ provinces and Prachuap. Against a national average for spoiled votes of 5.7% of the electorate, the four far south provinces recorded: 6.7, 6.5, 3.9, 7.7. Around the average. In Prachuap, spoiled votes were only 2.9% (but the turnout was very, very low).
If there is any suspicion about the ‘spoiled vote’ count, it’s in the north. There were only six provinces where the spoiled voted exceeded 10% (of the electorate), and these were all in the north (Phetchabun, Nan, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Mae Hong Son). As I noted in the original post, both the spoiled and ‘no’ votes are unusually high in the north, and I don’t know why. Does anyone have any suggestions?
By the way, a couple of days after the original post, a revised version of the same figures became available. The adjustments were all very small, except for Bangkok. In the earlier figures, the percentages for no-show:bad+no:valid in Bangkok were 83:5:11. In the revised they are 74:8:18. As noted in the original post, because of the obstructed vote in five constituencies, these figures significantly overestimate the ‘no-show’ percentage, but it’s impossible to correct the calculation with the data available.
Thai election by the numbers
I’m not charging Chris Baker with the combination and obfuscation … I imagine that it is a ‘righteous’ member of the Thai ‘middle class’, a slave of the Absolute Democracy, who has furnished the numbers combined – so that all the king’s horses and all the king’s men cannot take the ‘no!’ slash ‘no vote!’ apart again.
As Alex points out with his link above, a voter stirring his/her stumps and casting any vote at all was voting for democracy.
Thai election by the numbers
I thought so too. I usually read Chris’s stuff with genuine interest and quite a lot of agreement.
That said, a few other pundits on the local scene are perhaps about as transparent as the various governments they love to hate and favor. I often get the impression, when I look at this site, that many of the posters are feeling the pinch of an expensive education. And necessity is the mother of invention. Which I strongly doubt is really conducive to having an open mind about systems that don’t quite fit neatly with the current international obsession with ‘growth’. Making enough for a luxury yacht before the next spring tide, so to speak.
As Suthep is undoubtedly a free-market neanderthal, it automatically follows that there is not a single grain of truth in any of his complaints. Only being hugely corrupt and nepotistic is not nearly enough to curry global favor these days. The fashion-conscious pundit will likely swallow almost any bollocks if it is wrapped up in a professional-looking PR package run by a celebrity spin-doctor. Kamnan Suthep really does need to get a life. And presumably one that involves meetings in Manchester and Dubai, houses in Hong Kong and Croydon, and meetings with voodoo men in Myanmar. Go out and consume conspicuously Kamnan Suthep, and the whole world will soon think your bullshit and hypocrisy is absolutely wonderful stuff. So get with the system! Dozens of NM academics can’t be wrong!
Thai election by the numbers
The truth lies all around us, but it is remarkable how few people really notice it. Or perhaps the difference is that I am actually on the ground here, and get to hear about and see some of the victims of this nasty little mafia war. One enterprising local businessman who was assassinated at the end of the street – probably because he was in business competition with a brother-in-arms. And a couple of local mayors who brought into the package. One ended up bumping off his rival. Punished? Not in the slightest! And many more. Of course, it DOES work both ways. I stick to just working for a basic wage here. Outsiders are crazy to think about running an actual business. Anymore than that and you inevitably end up having to do favors for people you despise.
Re: George’s comment. One could just as easily say the same about Peua Thai and the Redshirts. I recently met an old acquaintance who works in a university – who mentioned marrying a few years back. Happy? Not really? No one locally wanted to know them. It appears the partner is a known Peua Thai vote canvasser. And also now a partner in a rather dodgy rice trading start-up. But not in his own home area. The derogatory term ‘carpetbagger’ easily springs to mind. And is probably entirely deserved. That’s the price you pay for trying to continually jump the queue.
You are on pretty weak ground talking about infrastructure contracts too. I wouldn’t deny there is a lot of truth in what you say, but Thaksin governments have a very long history of winning big on big contracts. And their desire to hang on in government at any cost is almost certainly an indication that MPs haven’t yet extracted quite as much out of the system as they had hoped.
Thailand’s election: 2 February 2014
Imagine having your relatives and friends slaughtered, and your property destroyed. And all for the sake of a couple of stupidly thuggish succession factions, who mostly have little more in mind than monopolizing the country’s wealth for their own sake. You may not have to imagine much longer. Highly likely outcome = Two separate states STILL repressively controlled by either the ancient ammart or the nouveau riche ammart. (Or an army mafia State vs a police mafia state.) There will obviously be a FEW winners from such a scenario. Not the you and I amongst us who already live here (rather tenuously), for sure. And most certainly not the people who already act as cannon fodder for the color-coded goon squads. Or the vast majority who don’t fall into the above categories. It will, of course, have little or no impact on academics – apart from creating an interesting local example of civil war to analyze in great depth and get all excited about.
The very least we can do to avoid the now seemingly almost unavoidable is to stop showing even the slightest support or sympathy for either faction.
Suthep’s romantic tale
Disappointed, You forget to mention many other important characteristics of thai lakorn
-the hero can rape the heroine and it is okay because he love the heroine so much he rape her and they will be end up together anyway. The hero can not be charged with anything.
-the heroine is always a virgin, if not, she has lost it to the hero, obviously
-the hero will save the heroine just in time before the villains rape her.
-you can instantly tell who is the female villain just by her revealing dress and her flashy makeup
-The female villain is a flirty girl. She tried to seduce the hero but he will never sleep with her unless she drug him, causing the hero and heroine to break up.
-At the end the female villain is raped or go crazy or become a handicapped and she deserves all of this because she is a bad girl.
I have read thai lakorns for ten years from Thai Rath when I was in Prathom to Matayom. Finally I gave up and decided they are all the same. Nowadays, not a thing has change. Just different set of there 4 characters in different settings.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
I have stated several times that I don’t believe there’s a role for Khun Suthep i a future democratic Thailand. Furthermore, I do not think he was in Trat killing people last night. Is your posting a way of rationalising the massacre? Do you believe shooting peaceful, innocent demonstrators and bystanders is acceptable?
Thailand’s election: 2 February 2014
There are people who are actually “proud” of the destruction of the Nation as a legal entity!
Thai election by the numbers
I ‘eyeballed’ Chris Baker’s graphic and split out the results by region and province. Interesting … I thought so anyway.
I’m troubled by the combination of ‘No! votes’ and EC generated ‘no votes!’. In the USA, anyway, ‘spoilage’ is the favored way to corrupt the vote. Ohio may be the state champion, there.
But never have I seen such high spoilage votes as Khun Achara showed in the South of Thailand.
I presume the percentage of EC-generated ‘no votes!’ was high throughout the country … but for some reason their relative percentage was kept secret here.
Thailand’s election: 2 February 2014
The success, or not, of the police operation hardly matters as the protesters have a sure-fire way of ‘retaking’ any area of Bangkok they desire. It goes like this: 1) walk/drive in the general direction of the target, 2) stay put once you’ve got there. It even works with airports. The police have no option but to clear out – and that was before the court decision last week.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Thank you my friend. You have said it all: “While farmers in some parts of the country are poor, farming is an industry, and the farmers use the tools available to them. Farmers in Thailand have used tractors and combine harvesters for decades. Harvesting by hand is still done in some of the poor areas, particularly where the yield is low, but that’s not where the bulk of the rice comes from.”
You have just confirmed that there are great disparities among the Thai farmers. Could it be that in all these years the rural Isaan and Lanna farmers have limited access to social resources and other governmental resources distribution? Is this the reason why these areas are so poor? Why are you so excite about the protestors/PDRC doing harm to the Thai’s economy and to the Thai people? This is aught to be a moral issue for everyone on this forum. A little reminder of what to come for society where gap between the rich and the poor widen too large. According to Lancet, “it is now well established that the more unequal the society, the worse the outcomes for all-including those at the top.”
FYI: Don’t tell me I know nothing about rural Isaan, Bangkok, or Thailand.