I was reading the wikipedia page on rice production in Thailand and noticed this incredible nugget:
“The government wanted to promote urban growth and one of the ways it accomplished this was by taxing the rice industry and using the money in big cities.[5] In fact, during 1953, tax on rice accounted for 32 percent of government revenue. The government set a monopoly price on exports, which increased tax revenue and keep domestic prices low for Thailand. The overall effect was a type of income transfer from farmers to the government and to urban consumers (who purchased rice). ”
So for a long time, the poor in the Northeast (and elsewhere) were actually subsidizing the rich in Bangkok. This lasted apparently until 1985.
I wonder if research into Thai economic policies of the last two hundred years would support the theory of Northeasterners as the helots of Thailand?
That would make it easier to understand why the Yellows are so outraged over agricultural subsidies which are standard everywhere in the world. The US, Japan, EU etc all subsidize their farmers. I’m not saying I agree with those policies but the particular outrage in Thailand may be related to the fact that historically the rich in Thailand are accustomed to being subsidized by the poor not the other way around.
…And just in case you remain uncertain whether the ‘Allah’ issue has yet reached
the lowest depths of absurdity, a PAS member
of Malaysia’s Parliament has ‘reassured’ Malays that if they somehow accidentally step into a church or somehow accidentally get sprinkled with holy water, they won’t get transformed into Christians. He didn’t say anything about werewolves, however.
Former Malaysian PM Mahathir has asked Catholic priest Father Lawrence Andrew to respect the Malaysian high court’s decision on banning the use of the word, ‘Allah’ in the Malay version of the Bible, among non-Muslims, and cease using the word “Allah” during Christian prayer services. Mahathir has also accused “Liberals” of leading Malaysia into a “Syria-like” situation
(so maybe the Inquisition analogy is not so far off after all).
Imam Muhammad Musri of the Islamic Society of Central Florida (USA) said: “Could the real problem be the anger of poor Malay Muslims over the rising prices of fuel and basic commodities? And could this be an attempt by some in the Malaysian government to deflect that anger?”
Apparently, at least one Imam in the United States, no expert on Malaysia, seems to understand the real basis for the ‘Allah’ controversy in Malaysia far better than current and prior Malaysian Prime Ministers.
A minor observation – I couldn’t possibly proffer anything on navigating the system above; but if it’s day-to-day relief wrt religious observance you’re looking for, why not attempt the CICOT (in a similar vein to their involvement aside the bureaucratic hand-wringing over the Rohingya?)
Insightful article with the historical parallel drawn but I hardly think not celebrating or being involved in other religious/cultural festivities apart from one’s own amounts to us Malays having ‘self-segregated ourselves from the lives of other races’. Quite the shallow, simplistic argument there, ignoring many other facets of interactions and confining the analysis to just one small issue. Just because I don’t celebrate deepavali, that doesn’t make me care for my Indian friends less does it? Whether one celebrates christmas/deepavali/thaipusam/wesak day/cny/aidilfitri etc or not is said person’s personal choice – and he/she shouldn’t be judged to have ‘self-segregated’ him or herself simply by choosing not to participate – as that choice does not impair one’s ability to interact meaningfully with members of other races. Quite a bit tyrannical there one would think, that viewpoint.
Malaysians do not have to share the same beliefs and practices, nor be seen to be so culturally and religiously ‘correct’, to be united and in harmony – we need only be able to mutually and genuinely respect and care for one another to achieve such ideals.
The idea that everyone should celebrate everyone else’s festivities lest they’re fit to be deemed guilty of ‘self-segregation’ is in itself, an illiberal, nationalistic idea. This kind of insecure, maybe even borderline pretentious attitude the author is impliedly promoting (celebrate my celebration, or not you’re a bigoted supremacist unworthy to call yourself a Malaysian!) belies an inherently untrusting prejudice I’d say. Made more manifestly apparent by the author’s ‘Malays don’t abandon their parents’ cynical remark. Only an obsessively racial person would perceive such connotations from a simple, innocuous (I’d argue) advertisement, in my humble opinion.
With all due respects (absolutely no pun intended) the continual west useless careless policy exists as followed:
1) Defining Myanmar with a jaundice eyes such as federalism, Right wing military, elitist and the worst-Democracy.
without ever defining “with context to Myanmar”. Has one ever seen federalism invoked in Thailand or else where?
2) CONVENIENTLY using HRW critreia to define a Buddhist citizenry on the Muslim as well as well as against the Kachin and Karin who happened to be Christians sure constitute the useless careless policy in light of knowing well NEVER admitting the harm to the citizenry and the paranoia induced on the ruling junta.
3) Just because Obama perfunctory visit, do not signify an end to the west continual useless careless policy.
Until “A SEMBLANCE OF DIGNITY’ to an ‘ALL MYANMAR CITIZENRY”, which by the way DASSK is highlighting, as opposed to pick and choose at will, there will not be any civilized solution forthcoming, as history as repeatedly illustrated in Germany, Japan post war and to a certain extend Vietnam recently.
By the way the “quelling” this protagonist described is directly quoted from the historical source of M. Charney ‘History of Modern Myanmar’ even though he called the defined the invasion of British as 1st Anglo Burmese War.
[…] Melati Timur n├гo concorda com o argumento de que o fato de crist├гos usarem o nome de Al├бenfraqueceria a fé dos mu├зulmanos: Why is the Muslim faith deemed the more fragile, more in need of […]
Mr. Cohen, Thank you for your posts. We disagree on only a few points and it is mostly a matter of perspective, not the major issues. My perspective was informed by listening to Bamar street folk, the educated, visits to history museums in Kachin State and in Yangon, and from reading Burmese history in Burmese. Yes, those texts were SPDC-era, but I found little to suggest that there were material distortions or errors in those volumes.
My concern, which admittedly is partly informed by Tatmadaw views, is that should the KNU, ARNO, KNPP, SSA and hosts of other factions (armed to the teeth with black market and very modern weapons) take power, we’ll have Yugoslavia on the Irrawaddy. The Tatmadaw didn’t defeat the KMT, the BCP, and the KNU insurgents in years past just to see the Union bust up.Like it or not, Thura Shwe Mann and Thein Sein and yes, Than Shwe were Myanmar’s Tito(s), holding things together in not-too-gentle manner. The Western noise-makers egging on the insurgents of all stripes–terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers (yes, the KNU; their own partisans told me so)–will not care if ethnically-mixed Myanmar families have no place to live in the post-Union horror show of ethnic cleansing and race-based local politics. This is what the border KNU and KIO say they want. In other words, they want no-go zones excluding those of other than their race. Like today’s Iraq, Syria and parts of the ex-USSR.
Oh, another problem: in Kachin State, there are 66 Kachin sub-groups. Which one gets primacy? Same for Shan and Chin states. Speaking as an Anglo living in New Mexico USA, I’m understanding of the need for all to live together.
I don’t have to agree with you, nor you with me, for me to be informed by what you say. George Thomas
I live in the US Southwest where the Anglos are now in the minority and getting more so. Our Anglos (with few exceptions) utterly disdain and dismiss Latino migrants with the flippant “what part of ‘illegal’ do you not understand?” Both the Buddhist Burman and Rakhaing Muslims feel the same way about the Rohingya. The other day, a Republican Party commentator noted that a big part of the White demographic is profoundly nervous and upset about the changing US population demographic. Which is how they justify the Supreme Court decision to gut the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I suggest examining the log in our own eye before harping on the mote in Myanmar’s. George Thomas
Excerpts from the CNBC article: Do Thai protestors have the government in checkmate?
“As Thailand’s anti-government protestors mass in Bangkok for Monday’s planned mass protest, signs are emerging they are likely to get their demand for an unelected government, analysts said.”
“Elections will almost certainly fail to resolve any of Thailand’s conflicts even if they happen,” Credit Suisse said in a note. “We now see judicial intervention to appoint an unelected caretaker government as the single most likely scenario.”
“The current government has only temporary caretaker status,” Credit Suisse said. “If circumstances prevented a new parliament from being formed, a new prime minister could not be elected, and the current cabinet would fall into legal limbo. The constitution provides no guidance as to what happens if a caretaker government loses its legal status, but we suspect that the Constitutional Court would ask the King to replace it with an unelected caretaker government.”
The bank’s analysts expect judicial intervention could come anytime from this month through early March, marking the end of the 30-day post-election period for forming a government.
“We see a significant risk that another multi-year cycle of political instability has begun,” Credit Suisse said.
“Judicial intervention brought down the last pro-Thaksin government in 2008 under similar circumstances,” the bank said. “If the courts ousted the current government, we would see a high risk of pro-Thaksin Red Shirt protesters replacing the anti-Thaksin protestors on the streets,” it added.
Some still expect the election process to play out, albeit far more slowly than usual.
“From what we have been hearing, it could be as far as October of this year (before there’s a government),” Nithi Wanikpun, an analyst at Nomura, told CNBC. “That process can be dragged on until later because we have six months from February 2 to get enough members of parliament,” he said.
“The Election Commission will be obliged to run a by-election or re-election in those 28 districts (without candidates) until we get more than 95 percent (of the total seats filled),” he said. “That would be an ongoing process. The law allows more than six months.”
But he added, if after six months there still aren’t enough members of parliament, “I don’t know what would happen.”
But K. Nomi thinks there is a err … pattern to target certain politicians in one party but not the other? Do you agree the three above mentioned had been given due process and justice had been served (or waiting to be served because two former ministers above are fugitives just like the ‘targetted’ Thaksin), and the Pattaya godfather is currently an invalid at a posh hospital (if the well-connected MP sons are to be believed).
But what you are suggesting K. Nomi are so ridiculous to even merit any serious debate:
(1) K. Nomi wants to see both Thaksin and Suthep tried(convicted) preferably by an independent international court … for corruption. For corruption? By an international court? That’s ridiculous and I don’t recall any sovereign country in the world ever being compelled or voluntarily agreeing to such course of justice for their corrupt present or past leaders.
(2) K. Nomi says “…If only one side is always prevented from corruption, but its OK for the other side …” Are you serious?
(3) What K. Nomi wants is fairness. And K. NOmi’s version of fairness goes like this: “Specifically targeting one corrupted man … will not reduce corruption.””… it has to be a little more encompassing than that – perhaps a few from every side, if only to give an impression of fairness.” Wow. That’s unbelievable simplicity of Nomi justice. The Thai judge wallops Suthep with his gavel (but a heavy hammer would be preferable) then turns to deliver a similarly equitably measured blow to Thaksin.
You are definitely iiiiinhaling much too much of Thaksin toxic-cannabis K. Nomi ….
Below is a link to the 2005 Asia Times article I was referred to, which offers some quite interesting insights, such as the fact that 5 planes operated out of the Hua Hin Royal Rainmaking Centre alone at that time (including an appropriately named “King Air” model (most likely a “Super King Air 350” plane)and that on the day the reporter visited, 7 – 10 tonnes of rainmaking chemicals were used in various formulas. Considering that at that time, “40-60 cloud seeding flights” were operating per day, I wonder if any research has been conducted into the environmental impacts of these vast quantities of chemicals raining down on the nation from the atmosphere. Is it totally benign or are there chronic or acute ecological or human health impacts resulting, when used on a regular and intensive scale, as around Hua Hin? The Wikipedia page links and evidence seem inconclusive, but at least show there has been some research in US and Australia, so I wonder if there has been any similar dedicated research conducted in Thailand specifically?
Even for an Uber-sensationalist, the phrase “Sri Lanka Solution” does bring in chills. Ironically it is not quite “Solution” either. Rather like the Furer’s Final Solution which brought out multiple times more of the same problem on both sides. Meaning, Tamils are simply biding time again. Through the Sri Lanka history true Buddhist-Hindu total annihilation has happened so many times with current day Sri Lanka Buddhism being boomerang from Burma and Thailand. Hence monks featuring regularly with military expeditions, a sort of scenario Burmese counterparts of today would be desperate to copy.
Your last two remarkable paragraphs definitely are THE best way forward for the current situation which today’s Burma has neither willingness or ability to follow through.
Burma again will pridefully grab abysmal failure right from the jaws of victory.
The very reason the name Rohingya as an entity came about rather mainstream and were truly recognized, was partially because some of them were/are very well educated. But mainly because U Nu did give them position and leverage. Why he did so was because most of the history of Burma (except for the fashionable All Burma Arakan-Love Fest of the last two years) real Burmese haters were not the Rohingya. But the Arakanese. Perhaps since the time of looting their Phayar (or Phayars as 4 were looted and only one made to Mandalay). Or because of their own ration of usual Burmese military cruelty as seen in the bordering countries be it Thailand (Yopdaya) or Chitagong Hill Tracts where those are still being remembered well after 2-3 hundreds years.
For those cruel acts of the past (like looting and grazing to the ground of Thaton, eg) there is no single repentant Burmese ever alive or dead (kudos to chauvinistic school instructions!). Rather like Sinhalese of today (devout Buddhists) regarding Mullaittivu or any other massacre or like today’s Burmese regarding the say- 38 times stabbing to a 90 year old woman, etc.
So, alas, today’s faux-unity of the racist Burmese and racist Arakanese is simply only on the topic of Rohingya and Rohingya only.
Also thanks for another great example. Ed Barneys’ point was exactly that. Neural connections in the heads of naturally insecure mortals would always recognize the comforting words like “democrat” always and unthinkingly as noble, upright, trustworthy, benevolent and being a savior or even wise even though uncalled for. Eg. Wilson (that is Woodrow) brought “democracy” to Europe even though he had to be told about it by Ed. By the power of a single word, millions of deaths taste sweet!
Might as well throw my hat in the prognostication ring too.
There are some parts of Jaimee’s prediction that are unlikely IMHO. The coupmakers et al *don’t care* how on edge or worn down or scared the metropolitan public is, they’re going to do whatever they want anyway, just as they always have. No need for elaborate planning. Just one monkey leading the parade, hoping for a coup but playing for time even if he doesn’t get it.
Suthep just wants *some window of time* – whether by coup, by appointment, or by concession from the opposition – with which to “reform” the election process to make it so those “uneducated” red shirts don’t show them up so handily come the next election time. And the one after that one. And forever more.
Once that’s done, once it’s no longer a level playing field as regards the electoral process, everything can go back to the way it was.
Your avg BKK flag-donning whistle-blowing protester [to Suthep]: “Hey wait, YOU said you were going to reform CORRUPTION”
Suthep: “We got rid of the red shirts. They were the source of the corruption”
YABFDWBP: “Hold on. We also wanted strong statutes punishing Saw Waws and Saw Saws for corrupt vote-buying practices. You said..”
Suthep: “Yeah, and Americans wanted hope and change. Go back to Kansas, Dorothy-siri.”
“Oh, and btw, thanks for handing me that cash. Heheh.”
They (royalists, yellow shirts, established middle/upper class) thought the coup was enough to get rid of HIM. But then proxies kept coming back. They thought then maybe time would make him fade away. Hmm….. how to get rid of these blasted proxies? Have to take a more nuanced approach… some electoral law smoke and mirrors masquerading as change-the-public-wants-because-we-tell-them.
A disappointment of astronomical proportions awaits the analytically-thinking-challenged followers of Suthep.
The red shirts are not used to waiting but now this forced waiting is going to give them a new edge. If robbed of yet another election, they’re not going to take this lying down. And it’ll be much, much uglier than last time. All bets will be off.
“mega-kleptomanic toxicity is poison to Thailand … pure poison.”
For a minute there I thought Vichai is describing Suthep (The man who would be king!)
How someone like Vichai, a purportedly intelligent person, can subscribe to a self proclaim “good” person who would sought to rule by appointing himself in this day and age (2014), is rather perplexing.
Note: Year placed in statement, in case Vichai and company think this is 1358AD or something
Thanks, hrk for the info. I was hoping that readers pick up other factual information pertains to life of Isaan folks in the late 60’s, 70’s, and early 80’s. Those were real experience. I am being nonplus of the three-thumbs down. Do you?
Now Vichai, I am hurt to the core by such blind lazy accusations!
Did I say, please dont prosecute Thaksin?
There are times my language may not be as clear, so feel free to ask for clarification.
I am merely answering the question, saying that I do not believe just convicting one man will stop the rot, as you put it.
You have to convict more than one, and from all sides if possible. Preferably all, but I am not naive to ask for the impossible.
It is my opinion (which may be wrong), that the current way of doing it – corrupt Suthep and Co targeting only one corrupt Thaksin (show of favourtism breeds resentment, agree?), not participating in election, prevent others from participating in election, shutting down Bangkok, working to incite military coup … – is not the right way, and will probably in the long term lead to even worse corruption and abuse of power.
My preference is: Democrat Party reforming itself (clean the house) to show itself as a cleaner party (sorry, but I really cannot believe politics can ever be clear of corruption) both financial wise and power-grab wise. And show itself to be the more responsible party policy wise.
Alternatively, perhaps a new party without the baggage of the past might work too.
And I do and will support the Democrat Party’s right to protest. I will likely even enjoy the atmosphere. I just do not support their actions in helping shut down Bangkok or prevent others from exercising their rights to vote.
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How to understand Thailand’s conflict
I was reading the wikipedia page on rice production in Thailand and noticed this incredible nugget:
“The government wanted to promote urban growth and one of the ways it accomplished this was by taxing the rice industry and using the money in big cities.[5] In fact, during 1953, tax on rice accounted for 32 percent of government revenue. The government set a monopoly price on exports, which increased tax revenue and keep domestic prices low for Thailand. The overall effect was a type of income transfer from farmers to the government and to urban consumers (who purchased rice). ”
So for a long time, the poor in the Northeast (and elsewhere) were actually subsidizing the rich in Bangkok. This lasted apparently until 1985.
I wonder if research into Thai economic policies of the last two hundred years would support the theory of Northeasterners as the helots of Thailand?
That would make it easier to understand why the Yellows are so outraged over agricultural subsidies which are standard everywhere in the world. The US, Japan, EU etc all subsidize their farmers. I’m not saying I agree with those policies but the particular outrage in Thailand may be related to the fact that historically the rich in Thailand are accustomed to being subsidized by the poor not the other way around.
A Malaysian Inquisition?
…And just in case you remain uncertain whether the ‘Allah’ issue has yet reached
the lowest depths of absurdity, a PAS member
of Malaysia’s Parliament has ‘reassured’ Malays that if they somehow accidentally step into a church or somehow accidentally get sprinkled with holy water, they won’t get transformed into Christians. He didn’t say anything about werewolves, however.
A Malaysian Inquisition?
Former Malaysian PM Mahathir has asked Catholic priest Father Lawrence Andrew to respect the Malaysian high court’s decision on banning the use of the word, ‘Allah’ in the Malay version of the Bible, among non-Muslims, and cease using the word “Allah” during Christian prayer services. Mahathir has also accused “Liberals” of leading Malaysia into a “Syria-like” situation
(so maybe the Inquisition analogy is not so far off after all).
Imam Muhammad Musri of the Islamic Society of Central Florida (USA) said: “Could the real problem be the anger of poor Malay Muslims over the rising prices of fuel and basic commodities? And could this be an attempt by some in the Malaysian government to deflect that anger?”
Apparently, at least one Imam in the United States, no expert on Malaysia, seems to understand the real basis for the ‘Allah’ controversy in Malaysia far better than current and prior Malaysian Prime Ministers.
Interview with a Palestinian refugee in Thailand
A minor observation – I couldn’t possibly proffer anything on navigating the system above; but if it’s day-to-day relief wrt religious observance you’re looking for, why not attempt the CICOT (in a similar vein to their involvement aside the bureaucratic hand-wringing over the Rohingya?)
A Malaysian Inquisition?
[…] non è d'accordo sul fatto che l'uso di “Allah” da parte dei cristiani possa indebolire la fede nei credenti […]
A Malaysian Inquisition?
Insightful article with the historical parallel drawn but I hardly think not celebrating or being involved in other religious/cultural festivities apart from one’s own amounts to us Malays having ‘self-segregated ourselves from the lives of other races’. Quite the shallow, simplistic argument there, ignoring many other facets of interactions and confining the analysis to just one small issue. Just because I don’t celebrate deepavali, that doesn’t make me care for my Indian friends less does it? Whether one celebrates christmas/deepavali/thaipusam/wesak day/cny/aidilfitri etc or not is said person’s personal choice – and he/she shouldn’t be judged to have ‘self-segregated’ him or herself simply by choosing not to participate – as that choice does not impair one’s ability to interact meaningfully with members of other races. Quite a bit tyrannical there one would think, that viewpoint.
Malaysians do not have to share the same beliefs and practices, nor be seen to be so culturally and religiously ‘correct’, to be united and in harmony – we need only be able to mutually and genuinely respect and care for one another to achieve such ideals.
The idea that everyone should celebrate everyone else’s festivities lest they’re fit to be deemed guilty of ‘self-segregation’ is in itself, an illiberal, nationalistic idea. This kind of insecure, maybe even borderline pretentious attitude the author is impliedly promoting (celebrate my celebration, or not you’re a bigoted supremacist unworthy to call yourself a Malaysian!) belies an inherently untrusting prejudice I’d say. Made more manifestly apparent by the author’s ‘Malays don’t abandon their parents’ cynical remark. Only an obsessively racial person would perceive such connotations from a simple, innocuous (I’d argue) advertisement, in my humble opinion.
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
Ko Moe Aung
With all due respects (absolutely no pun intended) the continual west useless careless policy exists as followed:
1) Defining Myanmar with a jaundice eyes such as federalism, Right wing military, elitist and the worst-Democracy.
without ever defining “with context to Myanmar”. Has one ever seen federalism invoked in Thailand or else where?
2) CONVENIENTLY using HRW critreia to define a Buddhist citizenry on the Muslim as well as well as against the Kachin and Karin who happened to be Christians sure constitute the useless careless policy in light of knowing well NEVER admitting the harm to the citizenry and the paranoia induced on the ruling junta.
3) Just because Obama perfunctory visit, do not signify an end to the west continual useless careless policy.
Until “A SEMBLANCE OF DIGNITY’ to an ‘ALL MYANMAR CITIZENRY”, which by the way DASSK is highlighting, as opposed to pick and choose at will, there will not be any civilized solution forthcoming, as history as repeatedly illustrated in Germany, Japan post war and to a certain extend Vietnam recently.
By the way the “quelling” this protagonist described is directly quoted from the historical source of M. Charney ‘History of Modern Myanmar’ even though he called the defined the invasion of British as 1st Anglo Burmese War.
A Malaysian Inquisition?
[…] Melati Timur n├гo concorda com o argumento de que o fato de crist├гos usarem o nome de Al├бenfraqueceria a fé dos mu├зulmanos: Why is the Muslim faith deemed the more fragile, more in need of […]
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
Mr. Cohen, Thank you for your posts. We disagree on only a few points and it is mostly a matter of perspective, not the major issues. My perspective was informed by listening to Bamar street folk, the educated, visits to history museums in Kachin State and in Yangon, and from reading Burmese history in Burmese. Yes, those texts were SPDC-era, but I found little to suggest that there were material distortions or errors in those volumes.
My concern, which admittedly is partly informed by Tatmadaw views, is that should the KNU, ARNO, KNPP, SSA and hosts of other factions (armed to the teeth with black market and very modern weapons) take power, we’ll have Yugoslavia on the Irrawaddy. The Tatmadaw didn’t defeat the KMT, the BCP, and the KNU insurgents in years past just to see the Union bust up.Like it or not, Thura Shwe Mann and Thein Sein and yes, Than Shwe were Myanmar’s Tito(s), holding things together in not-too-gentle manner. The Western noise-makers egging on the insurgents of all stripes–terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers (yes, the KNU; their own partisans told me so)–will not care if ethnically-mixed Myanmar families have no place to live in the post-Union horror show of ethnic cleansing and race-based local politics. This is what the border KNU and KIO say they want. In other words, they want no-go zones excluding those of other than their race. Like today’s Iraq, Syria and parts of the ex-USSR.
Oh, another problem: in Kachin State, there are 66 Kachin sub-groups. Which one gets primacy? Same for Shan and Chin states. Speaking as an Anglo living in New Mexico USA, I’m understanding of the need for all to live together.
I don’t have to agree with you, nor you with me, for me to be informed by what you say. George Thomas
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
I live in the US Southwest where the Anglos are now in the minority and getting more so. Our Anglos (with few exceptions) utterly disdain and dismiss Latino migrants with the flippant “what part of ‘illegal’ do you not understand?” Both the Buddhist Burman and Rakhaing Muslims feel the same way about the Rohingya. The other day, a Republican Party commentator noted that a big part of the White demographic is profoundly nervous and upset about the changing US population demographic. Which is how they justify the Supreme Court decision to gut the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I suggest examining the log in our own eye before harping on the mote in Myanmar’s. George Thomas
Another big weekend for Thailand
Here is what the world’s moneymen are saying … is going to happen next in Thailand.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101325953
Excerpts from the CNBC article: Do Thai protestors have the government in checkmate?
“As Thailand’s anti-government protestors mass in Bangkok for Monday’s planned mass protest, signs are emerging they are likely to get their demand for an unelected government, analysts said.”
“Elections will almost certainly fail to resolve any of Thailand’s conflicts even if they happen,” Credit Suisse said in a note. “We now see judicial intervention to appoint an unelected caretaker government as the single most likely scenario.”
“The current government has only temporary caretaker status,” Credit Suisse said. “If circumstances prevented a new parliament from being formed, a new prime minister could not be elected, and the current cabinet would fall into legal limbo. The constitution provides no guidance as to what happens if a caretaker government loses its legal status, but we suspect that the Constitutional Court would ask the King to replace it with an unelected caretaker government.”
The bank’s analysts expect judicial intervention could come anytime from this month through early March, marking the end of the 30-day post-election period for forming a government.
“We see a significant risk that another multi-year cycle of political instability has begun,” Credit Suisse said.
“Judicial intervention brought down the last pro-Thaksin government in 2008 under similar circumstances,” the bank said. “If the courts ousted the current government, we would see a high risk of pro-Thaksin Red Shirt protesters replacing the anti-Thaksin protestors on the streets,” it added.
Some still expect the election process to play out, albeit far more slowly than usual.
“From what we have been hearing, it could be as far as October of this year (before there’s a government),” Nithi Wanikpun, an analyst at Nomura, told CNBC. “That process can be dragged on until later because we have six months from February 2 to get enough members of parliament,” he said.
“The Election Commission will be obliged to run a by-election or re-election in those 28 districts (without candidates) until we get more than 95 percent (of the total seats filled),” he said. “That would be an ongoing process. The law allows more than six months.”
But he added, if after six months there still aren’t enough members of parliament, “I don’t know what would happen.”
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
I could recall a few more recent high-profile convictions of high-level elected officials plus one well-connected Thai Pattaya godfather:
(1) In the decision Sept/2013, the Thai Supreme Court sentenced Pracha Maleenont, the former deputy interior minister, to 12 years in prison and Athilak Tanchukiat, the former head of Bangkok’s Fire and Rescue Department, to 10 years. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/24/world/asia/left-to-languish-costly-fire-trucks-present-a-reminder-of-thai-dysfunction.html?_r=0)
(2) The conviction of former Deputy Interior Minister, Vatana Asavahame, on corruption charges in Y2008 (http://www.newmandala.org/2008/08/19/memories-of-vatana/)
(3) The conviction/arrest of Kamnan Poh, godfather of Pattaya, whose sons are powerful MPs (http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/617298-family-works-on-pardon-for-kamnan-poh/)
But K. Nomi thinks there is a err … pattern to target certain politicians in one party but not the other? Do you agree the three above mentioned had been given due process and justice had been served (or waiting to be served because two former ministers above are fugitives just like the ‘targetted’ Thaksin), and the Pattaya godfather is currently an invalid at a posh hospital (if the well-connected MP sons are to be believed).
But what you are suggesting K. Nomi are so ridiculous to even merit any serious debate:
(1) K. Nomi wants to see both Thaksin and Suthep tried(convicted) preferably by an independent international court … for corruption. For corruption? By an international court? That’s ridiculous and I don’t recall any sovereign country in the world ever being compelled or voluntarily agreeing to such course of justice for their corrupt present or past leaders.
(2) K. Nomi says “…If only one side is always prevented from corruption, but its OK for the other side …” Are you serious?
(3) What K. Nomi wants is fairness. And K. NOmi’s version of fairness goes like this: “Specifically targeting one corrupted man … will not reduce corruption.””… it has to be a little more encompassing than that – perhaps a few from every side, if only to give an impression of fairness.” Wow. That’s unbelievable simplicity of Nomi justice. The Thai judge wallops Suthep with his gavel (but a heavy hammer would be preferable) then turns to deliver a similarly equitably measured blow to Thaksin.
You are definitely iiiiinhaling much too much of Thaksin toxic-cannabis K. Nomi ….
A Malaysian Inquisition?
A well represented discussion on the Allah controversy issue on AlJazeera – that also involved Kean Wong, who contributes to New Mandala.
http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/201401090143-0023305
Royal rain-making in the news
Below is a link to the 2005 Asia Times article I was referred to, which offers some quite interesting insights, such as the fact that 5 planes operated out of the Hua Hin Royal Rainmaking Centre alone at that time (including an appropriately named “King Air” model (most likely a “Super King Air 350” plane)and that on the day the reporter visited, 7 – 10 tonnes of rainmaking chemicals were used in various formulas. Considering that at that time, “40-60 cloud seeding flights” were operating per day, I wonder if any research has been conducted into the environmental impacts of these vast quantities of chemicals raining down on the nation from the atmosphere. Is it totally benign or are there chronic or acute ecological or human health impacts resulting, when used on a regular and intensive scale, as around Hua Hin? The Wikipedia page links and evidence seem inconclusive, but at least show there has been some research in US and Australia, so I wonder if there has been any similar dedicated research conducted in Thailand specifically?
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/GD06Ae02.html
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
Even for an Uber-sensationalist, the phrase “Sri Lanka Solution” does bring in chills. Ironically it is not quite “Solution” either. Rather like the Furer’s Final Solution which brought out multiple times more of the same problem on both sides. Meaning, Tamils are simply biding time again. Through the Sri Lanka history true Buddhist-Hindu total annihilation has happened so many times with current day Sri Lanka Buddhism being boomerang from Burma and Thailand. Hence monks featuring regularly with military expeditions, a sort of scenario Burmese counterparts of today would be desperate to copy.
Your last two remarkable paragraphs definitely are THE best way forward for the current situation which today’s Burma has neither willingness or ability to follow through.
Burma again will pridefully grab abysmal failure right from the jaws of victory.
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
Thanks for reminding. Almost forgot.
The very reason the name Rohingya as an entity came about rather mainstream and were truly recognized, was partially because some of them were/are very well educated. But mainly because U Nu did give them position and leverage. Why he did so was because most of the history of Burma (except for the fashionable All Burma Arakan-Love Fest of the last two years) real Burmese haters were not the Rohingya. But the Arakanese. Perhaps since the time of looting their Phayar (or Phayars as 4 were looted and only one made to Mandalay). Or because of their own ration of usual Burmese military cruelty as seen in the bordering countries be it Thailand (Yopdaya) or Chitagong Hill Tracts where those are still being remembered well after 2-3 hundreds years.
For those cruel acts of the past (like looting and grazing to the ground of Thaton, eg) there is no single repentant Burmese ever alive or dead (kudos to chauvinistic school instructions!). Rather like Sinhalese of today (devout Buddhists) regarding Mullaittivu or any other massacre or like today’s Burmese regarding the say- 38 times stabbing to a 90 year old woman, etc.
So, alas, today’s faux-unity of the racist Burmese and racist Arakanese is simply only on the topic of Rohingya and Rohingya only.
Also thanks for another great example. Ed Barneys’ point was exactly that. Neural connections in the heads of naturally insecure mortals would always recognize the comforting words like “democrat” always and unthinkingly as noble, upright, trustworthy, benevolent and being a savior or even wise even though uncalled for. Eg. Wilson (that is Woodrow) brought “democracy” to Europe even though he had to be told about it by Ed. By the power of a single word, millions of deaths taste sweet!
Cheers!
Another big weekend for Thailand
Might as well throw my hat in the prognostication ring too.
There are some parts of Jaimee’s prediction that are unlikely IMHO. The coupmakers et al *don’t care* how on edge or worn down or scared the metropolitan public is, they’re going to do whatever they want anyway, just as they always have. No need for elaborate planning. Just one monkey leading the parade, hoping for a coup but playing for time even if he doesn’t get it.
Suthep just wants *some window of time* – whether by coup, by appointment, or by concession from the opposition – with which to “reform” the election process to make it so those “uneducated” red shirts don’t show them up so handily come the next election time. And the one after that one. And forever more.
Once that’s done, once it’s no longer a level playing field as regards the electoral process, everything can go back to the way it was.
Your avg BKK flag-donning whistle-blowing protester [to Suthep]: “Hey wait, YOU said you were going to reform CORRUPTION”
Suthep: “We got rid of the red shirts. They were the source of the corruption”
YABFDWBP: “Hold on. We also wanted strong statutes punishing Saw Waws and Saw Saws for corrupt vote-buying practices. You said..”
Suthep: “Yeah, and Americans wanted hope and change. Go back to Kansas, Dorothy-siri.”
“Oh, and btw, thanks for handing me that cash. Heheh.”
They (royalists, yellow shirts, established middle/upper class) thought the coup was enough to get rid of HIM. But then proxies kept coming back. They thought then maybe time would make him fade away. Hmm….. how to get rid of these blasted proxies? Have to take a more nuanced approach… some electoral law smoke and mirrors masquerading as change-the-public-wants-because-we-tell-them.
A disappointment of astronomical proportions awaits the analytically-thinking-challenged followers of Suthep.
The red shirts are not used to waiting but now this forced waiting is going to give them a new edge. If robbed of yet another election, they’re not going to take this lying down. And it’ll be much, much uglier than last time. All bets will be off.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
“mega-kleptomanic toxicity is poison to Thailand … pure poison.”
For a minute there I thought Vichai is describing Suthep (The man who would be king!)
How someone like Vichai, a purportedly intelligent person, can subscribe to a self proclaim “good” person who would sought to rule by appointing himself in this day and age (2014), is rather perplexing.
Note: Year placed in statement, in case Vichai and company think this is 1358AD or something
Royal rain-making in the news
Thanks, hrk for the info. I was hoping that readers pick up other factual information pertains to life of Isaan folks in the late 60’s, 70’s, and early 80’s. Those were real experience. I am being nonplus of the three-thumbs down. Do you?
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
Now Vichai, I am hurt to the core by such blind lazy accusations!
Did I say, please dont prosecute Thaksin?
There are times my language may not be as clear, so feel free to ask for clarification.
I am merely answering the question, saying that I do not believe just convicting one man will stop the rot, as you put it.
You have to convict more than one, and from all sides if possible. Preferably all, but I am not naive to ask for the impossible.
It is my opinion (which may be wrong), that the current way of doing it – corrupt Suthep and Co targeting only one corrupt Thaksin (show of favourtism breeds resentment, agree?), not participating in election, prevent others from participating in election, shutting down Bangkok, working to incite military coup … – is not the right way, and will probably in the long term lead to even worse corruption and abuse of power.
My preference is: Democrat Party reforming itself (clean the house) to show itself as a cleaner party (sorry, but I really cannot believe politics can ever be clear of corruption) both financial wise and power-grab wise. And show itself to be the more responsible party policy wise.
Alternatively, perhaps a new party without the baggage of the past might work too.
And I do and will support the Democrat Party’s right to protest. I will likely even enjoy the atmosphere. I just do not support their actions in helping shut down Bangkok or prevent others from exercising their rights to vote.