“In the end, no one knows. Everyone in history who thought they did were wrong from time to time, often fatally.
That’s certainly true, Frank.
The situation seems very fluid and contains more than the odd irony or paradox.
Thaksin and the army/establishment are the only beneficiaries of an amnesty: the former gets his money back and could return to the country, the latter will not be held to account for the crackdowns and coups.
If Thaksin continues to pursue his own interests through an amnesty bill, he risks a permanent fracture with the red shirts.
If the red shirts separate from Thaksin for whatever reason, they may have less funding and a weaker organisation, but they will be seen by more people to be an independent movement for social justice and greater political enfranchisement.
If the red shirts could survive any counter-actions by Thaksin for having the audacity to carve their own path (and such survival is a pretty big if in my opinion), then they could well end up being a greater threat to the establishment. Currently it is easy for certain groups to dismiss the red shirts as a toxic proxy force of Thaksin. If that relationship was severed then it would be much more difficult to ignore their demands.
Graham Greene could have penned an excellent novel based on the current situation on Thailand.
So the establishment will benefit from the amnesty, but could suffer more from
Thanks for the shorthand history of Hun Sen. I once interviewed one of his former lower-ranking officers who was with Hun Sen/Vietnamese when they invaded. He had some interesting anecdotes. You might not know this but I also author a FP book on Cambodia and we mention the fact that Hun Sen was a former KR cadre and plenty more about his background, the coup, his abuse of power and some of the other detail you mention above. I’d be happy to send you a press copy if you wish.
I am also in the process of reading the former UK Labour Party MP, Chris Mullin’s diaries. In Decline and Fall, Mullin describes a meeting with Ok Serai Sopheak , a former FUNCINPEC commander during the controversial coalition with the KR. Mullin recounts how Ok described how the coalition worked as “The West supported the non-communist resistance, the Chinese bankrolled the KR. The Thais stole about 30% of the foreign assistance that passed through their area.” Ok also claims that training of his cadre was supervised by an international contact group including ‘Thais, Singapore, Malaysia, the UK and the US”. Mullin adds that OK said “Relations with the Khmer Rouge and the Thais were close (they had safe houses in Thailand… everything). Was he [Ok] nervous about being allied to the KR? ‘It was high politics. Even the US andUK had voted for the Khmer Rouge at the UN’ [said Ok].”
In my view Brad Adams’ line is clearly just a parroting of US foreign policy in the region. He directly quotes the US State Dept in his piece in order to condemn Hun Sen, so, in my view, drags US foreign policy into the frame. Has Adams ever called for US govt and military people to be fully investigated for their criminal bombing of Cambodia? I’d be happy to be corrected on that matter if he has.
In my view we can’t single one villain out whilst ignoring the context and other, equally brutal, perpetrators. That reduces human rights to purely US leverage where their crimes get ignored and the people they deem as “bad men” get condemned.
I had in mind the Dan who did the book on temples of Thailand with Joe Cummings. I visualize dramatic pics of bomb-struck churches in Nam Dinh, Nghe An, Ha Tinh (have to be quick as they’re all getting renovated) as well as Kampuchea Krom and Kampong Cham, Kampong Thom and Battambang … and whatever can be found in Laos.
Regarding the backgrounds, I made a list way back and it goes thus: Pol Pot, Nuon Chea, Ta Mok, Duch, Bun Rany, Yun Yat, You Yuon all Chinese. Ieng Sary, Son Sen Being Viet/Chinese. Ieng Thirith I don’t know, Hu Nim a Khmer peasant. I’ll add the other two names you mentioned to my list after I have looked them up.
This was a very good report, Nick. It seemed well balanced and informed of certain potentially important developments that I haven’t seen reported elsewhere. Thanks.
By the way, may I ask what type of camera and lenses you normally use for your street work?
From how i understood the “amnesty” one thing mooted was that Thaksin would return and have his junta-inspired conviction expunged but still has the possibility of facing the charges again in a proper civilian court not something put in place by an illegal military coup. Bangkok Pundit refers to that in his piece here (http://asiancorrespondent.com/83699/a-review-of-the-thai-reconciliation-bills/) which offers a deeper insight into the reconciliation bills (there’s not just one being mooted).
“As independent legal scholar Verapat notes, the explanation of the Reconciliation Bill will erase the effects of the coup and states that Thaksin will come back to face the justice system again. However, Verapat states it is unclear whether this will happen or not because the Attorney-General or an entity who has power to file a case may view that there is no need for a new case…”
In that piece also BP points out the differences between Sonthi and Nattawut’s bills.
“For Nattuwat’s version, those who commit terrorist acts and acts causing death won’t get off. This is the main difference although the wording throughout does differ slightly and this may affect how broad the amnesty is for some offences.”
So the reconciliation bill has been misrepresented to a degree but, as others have pointed out, it’s now likely dead in the water as the focus switches to the battle with the constitutional court.
Also the ICC case is still pending – any amnesty given to Abhisit and his mob domestically would be null and void internationally. It would be different for any UDD who has already faced court as they will have already been seen to have undergone a “due process.” Abhisit hasn’t even been properly investigated and therefore still has a case to answer. The ICC are still to make a decision on whether they will formally investigate Abhisit.
Thaksin’s problem has been a) his own personal greed b) his naivety that he seemed to genuinely believe these people were going going to stick to any deal. The reconciliation bill certainly caused alienation from his base but the actions of the PAD/Dems seemed to have pushed everyone back together.
As for the Dems “lightning rod” group that Nick mentions I wrote about their show on Blue Sky TV over a week ago and how their double lightning rod symbol was reminiscent of the Nazi’s SS symbol.
“It’s too early to know what these shifts mean, but it’s not just more of the same.”
It is too early to say…. But I should imagine it is actually simply more of the same.
Care to elaborate?
There is very little in Cambodia that could be accurately described as being static, but maybe that’s not what you mean here.
It does not, however, mean that Human Rights Organisations should cease to do their job and turn a blind eye to continuing human rights abuses in Cambodia.
I wouldn’t think there’s a great risk of Human Rights Organisations turning a blind eye to human rights abuses in Cambodia. But to focus solely on human rights abuses risks overlooking everything else that is taking place in Cambodia. It’s not simply a hellhole of human rights abuses–though for some Cambodians it is.
What I can say is that I’ve had a very interesting chat with some well-placed people and certain things are moving on how the international media report the PAD.
The Dems are now monitoring the media for comments deemed to “pro-govt”. Will this now extend to the foreign media as it did in 2010 with the kind of cyber-pogrom that was launched against Dan Rivers? Let’s wait and see.
Since Thaksin is a highly interested party in the Reconciliation Bill, good corporate governance dictates that the former chairman and CEO and now majority shareholder of his beloved Thailand Inc following his recent leveraged buy out should recluse himself and refrain from any public comment. Since he is unable to resist the temptation to shoot off his mouth in support of his own related party transaction, his speech should be dismissed as “talking his own book” and Taylor’s commentary on such disingenuous utterance should also be ignored as equally invalid.
“Over the past two decades, Hun Sen has established political and economic stability in Cambodia, and a return to war looks very unlikely.”
This is certainly true. He is also guilty of serial human rights abuses.
” Of course it’s also the efficacy of his patronage networks throughout the country”
In 1998 that might have been the bullet in the bottom of the glass or the man found dead in a tub of acid….. Claimed as a ‘suicide’ by the CPP spokesman.
“Hun Sen has said that first and foremost his skills are in intelligence gathering.”
He is a genius at what he does. He runs rings around all politicians in Cambodia and he now makes Monkeys out of many politicians in Thailand including his ‘friends’.
“It’s too early to know what these shifts mean, but it’s not just more of the same.”
It is too early to say…. But I should imagine it is actually simply more of the same.
#6 Jon Wright
“Note that Hun Sen, who the article is about, is somewhat of an exception, in that among the top 20 or so KR that have gained some measure of infamy he was one of only 2 or 3 that were not ethnic Chinese/Vietnamese.”
Have you got a breakdown on this Jon?….. Pol Pot was of semi-Chinese lineage, Ieng Sary is Kampuchea Krom of course…. So Phim was not… Former Khmer Issarak as was Mok…. Rice field people….. Sar Kheng is Viet… Nuon Chea is certainly of Chinese origin…. I would be interested to know…. What about Vorn Vet?… There will, of course, be some divide in ethnicity between the educated former ‘Circle Marxiste’ educated cadres and the on the ground Issarak fighters…. Hun Sen was too young to be Issarak…. But he is of that ilk. A full break down would be interesting to see…. having said all that, to clam Saloth Sar, Nuon Chea or Ineg Sary are more foreign than Khmer is thin ice. Their policies are also best seen within a context of Khmerv tradition both political and cultural…. A point very well put by Philip Short.
“Dan, as a photojournalist who doesn’t mind a bit of touring I wonder if you might find that a good theme for a book – your temple stuff was good.”
There are many Dan’s out there… The Dan, I think you are referring to has been touring Cambodia for nearly two decades and has been published widely on the country including in both pictures and words in both books and magazines.
Anyway, to get back to the subject of the piece by Brad Adams, even given the relative stability that Cambodia now enjoys, human rights abuses are legion…. Land grabs, intimidation, killings…. land grabs more than ever as the Chinese and South Koreans pour in investment and hedge funds park write-off money… It all still goes on. Just look at Komong Som for starters.
In both ’98 and ’03 many would argue Hun Sen and the stability that has come with his rule post the ‘non-coup’ in 1997 was the better of a few probably more horrific evils…. And given the brutally feudal nature of both Cambodian society and politics, this is a legitimate argument…. It does not, however, mean that Human Rights Organisations should cease to do their job and turn a blind eye to continuing human rights abuses in Cambodia. Brad Adams article is simply outlining some of these contemporary issues and putting them into what he sees as appropriate context.
The “what-ifs” and “possibly this and possibly that” may fail to provide an overview of the Thai sociopolitical gestalt that would give better perspective prior to posing questions and offering alternative answers that are unable to find root in likelihood.
The Blue Sky Channel might be seen as an interim and natural outgrowth of reactionary elements in the conservative sector who thought the Red Shirt/UDD/coalition of pro-democracy/pro-freedom of speech advocates would either have given up by now or been forced into retreat. In short, “the situation” is a lot tougher to resolve than the traditional Thai way of dealing with such matters has been able to deal with in the past.
It seems that finally, and it’s about time, a real break has occurred in Thai society between those who have had enough and those who think they can keep steering the course of events – that includes making people think and act the way they expect them to. the dance is far from over, but if any predictions are in order, some quarters feel they will more likely than not involve protracted unrest until some shooting and another coup takes place. The nature of the next coup is, however, open to question. If the “let’s have change” faction “wins,” the coup would involve a reversion to one of the earlier constitutions, such as that before the 2006 coup. If “the old guard” itself “wins,” some housecleaning will take place that will of necessity move Thailand a lot further along the non-freedom path. This for a country that the US badly wants to develop more and more economic ties and military cooperation, and which is being considered as part of a Harvard Thai studies program.
In the end, no one knows. Everyone in history who thought they did were wrong from time to time, often fatally.
It’s very difficult to answer those questions as there are too many factors involved. I just read in the papers that for now the controversial bills have been taken off Friday’s session. That, for the time being eases the situation.
Anything else is speculation. At the moment is seems that the different Red Shirt factions have found common ground again. I do not want to second-guess Thaksin, i think we will know later what he will do now. As to the deal (if there was one, what i assumed) – i think that looks to be quite off now. I believe that recent events have shifted the power structure in the quite complex Red Shirt – Thaksin/Party Puyai relationship in favor of the Red Shirts, signified also in Thaksin’s need to issue an apology for his remarks in the May 19 video link.
‘Blue Sky’ indeed has an extra-ordinary amount of hate speech content, uses at times very rude language against political opponents (at least in the times i watched it at home) – more so than in the nowadays quite professionally run Red Shirt propaganda station ‘Asia Update’ – but i was told that ‘Blue Sky’ has quite huge ratings now.
If the Democrats will continue their new street movement, i believe that this could turn into a significant force, especially if their sympathy carriers like Abhisit, Chuan, etc continue to appear at rallies. Their MP’s will be able to mobilize through their party and canvasser networks without too much effort several thousand people for stage rallies, and as every political party in Thailand many Democrat MP’s also have access to a large number of the rougher elements of Thai society. It is yet too far too early to say if this could develop into a social mass movement.
The Democrats though have no or very little experience yet to organize, control or develop a street protest movement directly, as so far they have only piggybacked the PAD and the less than successful Multicoloreds. What is clear though is that they will definitely collaborate with the PAD, at least in their position against the government – but this will be a strategic alliance with quite a few strains in their relationship. While there are overlapping agendas and ideologies, there are also significant differences.
A big question mark is also of course what position the military will take now – will it actively support the street opposition as they did in especially 2008, or will it stay on the sidelines and watch how all develops?
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how the situation develops.
> “The worst atrocities committed against Khmer people were committed by other Khmer people”
Note that Hun Sen, who the article is about, is somewhat of an exception, in that among the top 20 or so KR that have gained some measure of infamy he was one of only 2 or 3 that were not ethnic Chinese/Vietnamese. Another observation: Whenever you find yourself loitering around the home villages of Indochinese thugs/despots/assortedodiousfigures, you always find … a Catholic church. Dan, as a photojournalist who doesn’t mind a bit of touring I wonder if you might find that a good theme for a book – your temple stuff was good.
Over the past two decades, Hun Sen has established political and economic stability in Cambodia, and a return to war looks very unlikely. Living standards, participation in education, average income, life expectancy, infant mortality, extra-judicial killings–all of these measures have improved during the Hun Sen era. It is partly for these reasons that he has such popular support. Of course it’s also the efficacy of his patronage networks throughout the country, but his performance is often discounted.
Hun Sen has said that first and foremost his skills are in intelligence gathering. With those skills, he’s done an incredible job of transforming a fractured nation where power came from with being good at war, into the politically and economically stable Cambodia that we know today. He’s certainly no angel, and that’s true even in recent years–in all likelihood he was responsible for the killing of Hok Lundy in 2007–but who’s complaining?
This election was not more of the same. There were over 200 politically motivated killings associated with the 1993 elections. Around 20 for the 1998 elections. Is anyone aware of any that are associated with the 2012 commune council elections?
While the result was basically a given, it was an interesting shift nonetheless. Over 35% of the population voted for a party other than the CPP. The HRP emerged as a significant opposition force that might be able to rival the SRP in years to come without the overt racism.
In Hun Sen’s home province, he got much less than the national average, just 52% of the vote. And in Phnom Penh, where the SRP have won at this level in the past, the CPP got more than the national average.
It’s too early to know what these shifts mean, but it’s not just more of the same.
Absolutely spot on, Douglas. They can’t tell the difference between a public centred system and an individualistic consumption centred one. Frankly the public good never seemed to have been a real consideration by this outfit except for the use of the term for PR purposes.
And look where the individualism in consumer societies have got them to. Congestion, pollution, definitely profits for Big Business which then employs PR consultants to gain disingenuous green credentials. Like tobacco companies they will flock to newly emerged Third World markets to peddle their wares.
If consumer power means anything the govt should demand good and reliable public service and goods vehicles, better still actually make them by acquiring plant and technology, maintain and repair, instead of merely assemble them and stamp a shameless Made in Myanmar on them.
“Before the fall of Phnom Penh he was actually active in Mondulkiri/Ratanakiri – the area that was used as a test bed for those policies”
Jon, I think you will find he was fighting around the actual Eastern Zone areas (he is from Kompong Cham)…. i.e Prey Veng, Svay Rieng etc….. Ratanakiri and Mondulkiri were home to what the ‘Center’ thought of as the original ‘base’ people from the many years of fugitive jungle hiding with them before the Lon Nol coup and the subsequent Hanoi ‘activation’ of the KR…. They were not under So Phim’s Eastern Zone remit …… But if you have evidence that I am wrong on that, then I am happy to be corrected.
“He then came back with the Vietnamese and fought against Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge, who were by that time, backed by the US, UK and most fervently by the Thai Army.”
You have simplified some of this and some of it you have simply got wrong Andrew. Hun Sen was a low to mid level Eastern Zone commander under So Phim. In 1978 when the Eastern Zone cadres were purged, and vast numbers of eastern Zone people were sent to Mok’s Southwestern Zone, to be casually murdered (the blue krama being the signal), Hun Sen fled to Vietnam. He re-entered Cambodia, along with Heng Samrin, when Vietnamese forces invaded Cambodia in 1979 and evicted the Khmer Rouge. At this point the Khmer Rouge were not allied with either the KPNLF (because they did not yet exist), nor the Sihanouk aligned resistance….. Nor was there an anti Soviet/Viet alliance in place at this time for the US to back……
The cold war backing for a subsequent KPNLF/Royalist/KR alliance through the 80s is a separate point…. But in no way excuses your ignorance in attacking HRW…. Yes, Hun Sen was a low level Eastern Zone KR commander. That is fact.
In many ways the KR never went away, and in Cambodia they are still everywhere in certain regions at various levels of administration.
“Hun Sen might be a monster but compared to the death toll enacted on the entire region by the US he’s still in the lower division of murder.”
The worst atrocities committed against Khmer people were committed by other Khmer people…. The KR was an appalling brutal flowering of this, but atrocities had already become the norm under Sihanouk (and indeed regions controlled by Khmer Issarak as well) and also under Lon Nol.
Hun Sen is continuing a tradition of Khmer brutality that has little to do with America and much to do with Khmers…..
The human rights situation in Cambodia remains appalling and it is something HRW cannot fail to ignore…. The recent murder of Chut Wutty harks straight back to the murder of trade unionist, Chea Vichea, and the bad old days before that ….. Om Radsady gunned down outside a noodle shop on Moninvong in broad daylight, grenade attacks against opposition demonstrators etc etc….. It goes on.
This is a pattern of human rights abuses that has been well learned by Hun Sen…. And he is in a line of those who perpetrate them…. Sinanouk, Lon Nol…. The explosion of horror that was the Khmer Rouge….. And now Hun Sen…… Khmer killing Khmer and the exercise of raw, naked power….. Go figure.
Do you think the fractures in the red shirt movement, especially those that were exacerbated by the rushed amnesty/reconcilliation bill, have been reversed in a sustainable way?
Will the PTP top brass/Thaksin be likely to listen more to those who want to see full investigations into 2010 conducted and justice to be done? Or is amnesty too significant a part of the deal Thaksin/PTP has made with the army etc, for it do be changed?
Also, what about the Sai Loh Fah brigades? You’ve mentioned how the Democrat sponsored TV channel has some very grim content which engourages extremism… do you expect this group to emerge as a significant force? What role do you expect it to play among the pro-establishment colours (Multicolours, PAD/Santi-Asoke etc)? The old yellows seem to be on the wane with Siam Semmakhi emerging as a more resolute force. Do you expect Sai Loh Fah to be a more broadbased/middle-class movement, or will carry all the extremist baggage that the other groups have/do?
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Reconciliation games
“In the end, no one knows. Everyone in history who thought they did were wrong from time to time, often fatally.
That’s certainly true, Frank.
The situation seems very fluid and contains more than the odd irony or paradox.
Thaksin and the army/establishment are the only beneficiaries of an amnesty: the former gets his money back and could return to the country, the latter will not be held to account for the crackdowns and coups.
If Thaksin continues to pursue his own interests through an amnesty bill, he risks a permanent fracture with the red shirts.
If the red shirts separate from Thaksin for whatever reason, they may have less funding and a weaker organisation, but they will be seen by more people to be an independent movement for social justice and greater political enfranchisement.
If the red shirts could survive any counter-actions by Thaksin for having the audacity to carve their own path (and such survival is a pretty big if in my opinion), then they could well end up being a greater threat to the establishment. Currently it is easy for certain groups to dismiss the red shirts as a toxic proxy force of Thaksin. If that relationship was severed then it would be much more difficult to ignore their demands.
Graham Greene could have penned an excellent novel based on the current situation on Thailand.
So the establishment will benefit from the amnesty, but could suffer more from
Surprise? A CPP victory
Dan
Thanks for the shorthand history of Hun Sen. I once interviewed one of his former lower-ranking officers who was with Hun Sen/Vietnamese when they invaded. He had some interesting anecdotes. You might not know this but I also author a FP book on Cambodia and we mention the fact that Hun Sen was a former KR cadre and plenty more about his background, the coup, his abuse of power and some of the other detail you mention above. I’d be happy to send you a press copy if you wish.
I am also in the process of reading the former UK Labour Party MP, Chris Mullin’s diaries. In Decline and Fall, Mullin describes a meeting with Ok Serai Sopheak , a former FUNCINPEC commander during the controversial coalition with the KR. Mullin recounts how Ok described how the coalition worked as “The West supported the non-communist resistance, the Chinese bankrolled the KR. The Thais stole about 30% of the foreign assistance that passed through their area.” Ok also claims that training of his cadre was supervised by an international contact group including ‘Thais, Singapore, Malaysia, the UK and the US”. Mullin adds that OK said “Relations with the Khmer Rouge and the Thais were close (they had safe houses in Thailand… everything). Was he [Ok] nervous about being allied to the KR? ‘It was high politics. Even the US andUK had voted for the Khmer Rouge at the UN’ [said Ok].”
In my view Brad Adams’ line is clearly just a parroting of US foreign policy in the region. He directly quotes the US State Dept in his piece in order to condemn Hun Sen, so, in my view, drags US foreign policy into the frame. Has Adams ever called for US govt and military people to be fully investigated for their criminal bombing of Cambodia? I’d be happy to be corrected on that matter if he has.
In my view we can’t single one villain out whilst ignoring the context and other, equally brutal, perpetrators. That reduces human rights to purely US leverage where their crimes get ignored and the people they deem as “bad men” get condemned.
Surprise? A CPP victory
> “The Dan, I think you are referring to …”
I had in mind the Dan who did the book on temples of Thailand with Joe Cummings. I visualize dramatic pics of bomb-struck churches in Nam Dinh, Nghe An, Ha Tinh (have to be quick as they’re all getting renovated) as well as Kampuchea Krom and Kampong Cham, Kampong Thom and Battambang … and whatever can be found in Laos.
Regarding the backgrounds, I made a list way back and it goes thus: Pol Pot, Nuon Chea, Ta Mok, Duch, Bun Rany, Yun Yat, You Yuon all Chinese. Ieng Sary, Son Sen Being Viet/Chinese. Ieng Thirith I don’t know, Hu Nim a Khmer peasant. I’ll add the other two names you mentioned to my list after I have looked them up.
Reconciliation games
This was a very good report, Nick. It seemed well balanced and informed of certain potentially important developments that I haven’t seen reported elsewhere. Thanks.
By the way, may I ask what type of camera and lenses you normally use for your street work?
Reconciliation games
“Jim Taylor
From how i understood the “amnesty” one thing mooted was that Thaksin would return and have his junta-inspired conviction expunged but still has the possibility of facing the charges again in a proper civilian court not something put in place by an illegal military coup. Bangkok Pundit refers to that in his piece here (http://asiancorrespondent.com/83699/a-review-of-the-thai-reconciliation-bills/) which offers a deeper insight into the reconciliation bills (there’s not just one being mooted).
“As independent legal scholar Verapat notes, the explanation of the Reconciliation Bill will erase the effects of the coup and states that Thaksin will come back to face the justice system again. However, Verapat states it is unclear whether this will happen or not because the Attorney-General or an entity who has power to file a case may view that there is no need for a new case…”
In that piece also BP points out the differences between Sonthi and Nattawut’s bills.
“For Nattuwat’s version, those who commit terrorist acts and acts causing death won’t get off. This is the main difference although the wording throughout does differ slightly and this may affect how broad the amnesty is for some offences.”
So the reconciliation bill has been misrepresented to a degree but, as others have pointed out, it’s now likely dead in the water as the focus switches to the battle with the constitutional court.
Also the ICC case is still pending – any amnesty given to Abhisit and his mob domestically would be null and void internationally. It would be different for any UDD who has already faced court as they will have already been seen to have undergone a “due process.” Abhisit hasn’t even been properly investigated and therefore still has a case to answer. The ICC are still to make a decision on whether they will formally investigate Abhisit.
Thaksin’s problem has been a) his own personal greed b) his naivety that he seemed to genuinely believe these people were going going to stick to any deal. The reconciliation bill certainly caused alienation from his base but the actions of the PAD/Dems seemed to have pushed everyone back together.
As for the Dems “lightning rod” group that Nick mentions I wrote about their show on Blue Sky TV over a week ago and how their double lightning rod symbol was reminiscent of the Nazi’s SS symbol.
http://asiancorrespondent.com/83377/neo-fascist-sympathising-thai-democrats-shocking-use-of-nazi-symbolism/
Interestingly the Dems now seem to have reduced the “thunder bolt” or “lightning rod” symbol to only one.
Surprise? A CPP victory
Care to elaborate?
There is very little in Cambodia that could be accurately described as being static, but maybe that’s not what you mean here.
I wouldn’t think there’s a great risk of Human Rights Organisations turning a blind eye to human rights abuses in Cambodia. But to focus solely on human rights abuses risks overlooking everything else that is taking place in Cambodia. It’s not simply a hellhole of human rights abuses–though for some Cambodians it is.
The end, the beginning
Emjay
Thanks.
What I can say is that I’ve had a very interesting chat with some well-placed people and certain things are moving on how the international media report the PAD.
Secondly this is very interesting
http://asiancorrespondent.com/83758/thailands-democrat-party-to-monitor-media/
The Dems are now monitoring the media for comments deemed to “pro-govt”. Will this now extend to the foreign media as it did in 2010 with the kind of cyber-pogrom that was launched against Dan Rivers? Let’s wait and see.
Thaksin, reform and political crisis
Since Thaksin is a highly interested party in the Reconciliation Bill, good corporate governance dictates that the former chairman and CEO and now majority shareholder of his beloved Thailand Inc following his recent leveraged buy out should recluse himself and refrain from any public comment. Since he is unable to resist the temptation to shoot off his mouth in support of his own related party transaction, his speech should be dismissed as “talking his own book” and Taylor’s commentary on such disingenuous utterance should also be ignored as equally invalid.
Surprise? A CPP victory
#5 Willem
“Over the past two decades, Hun Sen has established political and economic stability in Cambodia, and a return to war looks very unlikely.”
This is certainly true. He is also guilty of serial human rights abuses.
” Of course it’s also the efficacy of his patronage networks throughout the country”
In 1998 that might have been the bullet in the bottom of the glass or the man found dead in a tub of acid….. Claimed as a ‘suicide’ by the CPP spokesman.
“Hun Sen has said that first and foremost his skills are in intelligence gathering.”
He is a genius at what he does. He runs rings around all politicians in Cambodia and he now makes Monkeys out of many politicians in Thailand including his ‘friends’.
“It’s too early to know what these shifts mean, but it’s not just more of the same.”
It is too early to say…. But I should imagine it is actually simply more of the same.
#6 Jon Wright
“Note that Hun Sen, who the article is about, is somewhat of an exception, in that among the top 20 or so KR that have gained some measure of infamy he was one of only 2 or 3 that were not ethnic Chinese/Vietnamese.”
Have you got a breakdown on this Jon?….. Pol Pot was of semi-Chinese lineage, Ieng Sary is Kampuchea Krom of course…. So Phim was not… Former Khmer Issarak as was Mok…. Rice field people….. Sar Kheng is Viet… Nuon Chea is certainly of Chinese origin…. I would be interested to know…. What about Vorn Vet?… There will, of course, be some divide in ethnicity between the educated former ‘Circle Marxiste’ educated cadres and the on the ground Issarak fighters…. Hun Sen was too young to be Issarak…. But he is of that ilk. A full break down would be interesting to see…. having said all that, to clam Saloth Sar, Nuon Chea or Ineg Sary are more foreign than Khmer is thin ice. Their policies are also best seen within a context of Khmerv tradition both political and cultural…. A point very well put by Philip Short.
“Dan, as a photojournalist who doesn’t mind a bit of touring I wonder if you might find that a good theme for a book – your temple stuff was good.”
There are many Dan’s out there… The Dan, I think you are referring to has been touring Cambodia for nearly two decades and has been published widely on the country including in both pictures and words in both books and magazines.
Anyway, to get back to the subject of the piece by Brad Adams, even given the relative stability that Cambodia now enjoys, human rights abuses are legion…. Land grabs, intimidation, killings…. land grabs more than ever as the Chinese and South Koreans pour in investment and hedge funds park write-off money… It all still goes on. Just look at Komong Som for starters.
In both ’98 and ’03 many would argue Hun Sen and the stability that has come with his rule post the ‘non-coup’ in 1997 was the better of a few probably more horrific evils…. And given the brutally feudal nature of both Cambodian society and politics, this is a legitimate argument…. It does not, however, mean that Human Rights Organisations should cease to do their job and turn a blind eye to continuing human rights abuses in Cambodia. Brad Adams article is simply outlining some of these contemporary issues and putting them into what he sees as appropriate context.
Reconciliation games
The “what-ifs” and “possibly this and possibly that” may fail to provide an overview of the Thai sociopolitical gestalt that would give better perspective prior to posing questions and offering alternative answers that are unable to find root in likelihood.
The Blue Sky Channel might be seen as an interim and natural outgrowth of reactionary elements in the conservative sector who thought the Red Shirt/UDD/coalition of pro-democracy/pro-freedom of speech advocates would either have given up by now or been forced into retreat. In short, “the situation” is a lot tougher to resolve than the traditional Thai way of dealing with such matters has been able to deal with in the past.
It seems that finally, and it’s about time, a real break has occurred in Thai society between those who have had enough and those who think they can keep steering the course of events – that includes making people think and act the way they expect them to. the dance is far from over, but if any predictions are in order, some quarters feel they will more likely than not involve protracted unrest until some shooting and another coup takes place. The nature of the next coup is, however, open to question. If the “let’s have change” faction “wins,” the coup would involve a reversion to one of the earlier constitutions, such as that before the 2006 coup. If “the old guard” itself “wins,” some housecleaning will take place that will of necessity move Thailand a lot further along the non-freedom path. This for a country that the US badly wants to develop more and more economic ties and military cooperation, and which is being considered as part of a Harvard Thai studies program.
In the end, no one knows. Everyone in history who thought they did were wrong from time to time, often fatally.
Reconciliation games
“Greg Lowe”:
It’s very difficult to answer those questions as there are too many factors involved. I just read in the papers that for now the controversial bills have been taken off Friday’s session. That, for the time being eases the situation.
Anything else is speculation. At the moment is seems that the different Red Shirt factions have found common ground again. I do not want to second-guess Thaksin, i think we will know later what he will do now. As to the deal (if there was one, what i assumed) – i think that looks to be quite off now. I believe that recent events have shifted the power structure in the quite complex Red Shirt – Thaksin/Party Puyai relationship in favor of the Red Shirts, signified also in Thaksin’s need to issue an apology for his remarks in the May 19 video link.
‘Blue Sky’ indeed has an extra-ordinary amount of hate speech content, uses at times very rude language against political opponents (at least in the times i watched it at home) – more so than in the nowadays quite professionally run Red Shirt propaganda station ‘Asia Update’ – but i was told that ‘Blue Sky’ has quite huge ratings now.
If the Democrats will continue their new street movement, i believe that this could turn into a significant force, especially if their sympathy carriers like Abhisit, Chuan, etc continue to appear at rallies. Their MP’s will be able to mobilize through their party and canvasser networks without too much effort several thousand people for stage rallies, and as every political party in Thailand many Democrat MP’s also have access to a large number of the rougher elements of Thai society. It is yet too far too early to say if this could develop into a social mass movement.
The Democrats though have no or very little experience yet to organize, control or develop a street protest movement directly, as so far they have only piggybacked the PAD and the less than successful Multicoloreds. What is clear though is that they will definitely collaborate with the PAD, at least in their position against the government – but this will be a strategic alliance with quite a few strains in their relationship. While there are overlapping agendas and ideologies, there are also significant differences.
A big question mark is also of course what position the military will take now – will it actively support the street opposition as they did in especially 2008, or will it stay on the sidelines and watch how all develops?
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how the situation develops.
Anwar Ibrahim at Univerity of Sydney & ANU
Late Night Live’s Philip Adams talks to Anwar Ibrahim about the “Malaysian Spring”
A fascinating and in depth account of all things that matter politically in Malaysia from the leader of Malaysia’s opposition.
Surprise? A CPP victory
> “The worst atrocities committed against Khmer people were committed by other Khmer people”
Note that Hun Sen, who the article is about, is somewhat of an exception, in that among the top 20 or so KR that have gained some measure of infamy he was one of only 2 or 3 that were not ethnic Chinese/Vietnamese. Another observation: Whenever you find yourself loitering around the home villages of Indochinese thugs/despots/assortedodiousfigures, you always find … a Catholic church. Dan, as a photojournalist who doesn’t mind a bit of touring I wonder if you might find that a good theme for a book – your temple stuff was good.
Reconciliation games
The country is in trouble when people cannot agree to disagree civilly but instead will only disagree to agree on anything.
Surprise? A CPP victory
Over the past two decades, Hun Sen has established political and economic stability in Cambodia, and a return to war looks very unlikely. Living standards, participation in education, average income, life expectancy, infant mortality, extra-judicial killings–all of these measures have improved during the Hun Sen era. It is partly for these reasons that he has such popular support. Of course it’s also the efficacy of his patronage networks throughout the country, but his performance is often discounted.
Hun Sen has said that first and foremost his skills are in intelligence gathering. With those skills, he’s done an incredible job of transforming a fractured nation where power came from with being good at war, into the politically and economically stable Cambodia that we know today. He’s certainly no angel, and that’s true even in recent years–in all likelihood he was responsible for the killing of Hok Lundy in 2007–but who’s complaining?
This election was not more of the same. There were over 200 politically motivated killings associated with the 1993 elections. Around 20 for the 1998 elections. Is anyone aware of any that are associated with the 2012 commune council elections?
While the result was basically a given, it was an interesting shift nonetheless. Over 35% of the population voted for a party other than the CPP. The HRP emerged as a significant opposition force that might be able to rival the SRP in years to come without the overt racism.
In Hun Sen’s home province, he got much less than the national average, just 52% of the vote. And in Phnom Penh, where the SRP have won at this level in the past, the CPP got more than the national average.
It’s too early to know what these shifts mean, but it’s not just more of the same.
Getting real about Myanmar’s development
Absolutely spot on, Douglas. They can’t tell the difference between a public centred system and an individualistic consumption centred one. Frankly the public good never seemed to have been a real consideration by this outfit except for the use of the term for PR purposes.
And look where the individualism in consumer societies have got them to. Congestion, pollution, definitely profits for Big Business which then employs PR consultants to gain disingenuous green credentials. Like tobacco companies they will flock to newly emerged Third World markets to peddle their wares.
If consumer power means anything the govt should demand good and reliable public service and goods vehicles, better still actually make them by acquiring plant and technology, maintain and repair, instead of merely assemble them and stamp a shameless Made in Myanmar on them.
Getting real about Myanmar’s development
Douglas,
All they want is whatever next door neighbour’s got.
Unfortunately the new “democracy” is not a bit wiser either.
Surprise? A CPP victory
#2 Jon Wright
“Before the fall of Phnom Penh he was actually active in Mondulkiri/Ratanakiri – the area that was used as a test bed for those policies”
Jon, I think you will find he was fighting around the actual Eastern Zone areas (he is from Kompong Cham)…. i.e Prey Veng, Svay Rieng etc….. Ratanakiri and Mondulkiri were home to what the ‘Center’ thought of as the original ‘base’ people from the many years of fugitive jungle hiding with them before the Lon Nol coup and the subsequent Hanoi ‘activation’ of the KR…. They were not under So Phim’s Eastern Zone remit …… But if you have evidence that I am wrong on that, then I am happy to be corrected.
Surprise? A CPP victory
#1 Andrew Spooner
“He then came back with the Vietnamese and fought against Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge, who were by that time, backed by the US, UK and most fervently by the Thai Army.”
You have simplified some of this and some of it you have simply got wrong Andrew. Hun Sen was a low to mid level Eastern Zone commander under So Phim. In 1978 when the Eastern Zone cadres were purged, and vast numbers of eastern Zone people were sent to Mok’s Southwestern Zone, to be casually murdered (the blue krama being the signal), Hun Sen fled to Vietnam. He re-entered Cambodia, along with Heng Samrin, when Vietnamese forces invaded Cambodia in 1979 and evicted the Khmer Rouge. At this point the Khmer Rouge were not allied with either the KPNLF (because they did not yet exist), nor the Sihanouk aligned resistance….. Nor was there an anti Soviet/Viet alliance in place at this time for the US to back……
The cold war backing for a subsequent KPNLF/Royalist/KR alliance through the 80s is a separate point…. But in no way excuses your ignorance in attacking HRW…. Yes, Hun Sen was a low level Eastern Zone KR commander. That is fact.
In many ways the KR never went away, and in Cambodia they are still everywhere in certain regions at various levels of administration.
“Hun Sen might be a monster but compared to the death toll enacted on the entire region by the US he’s still in the lower division of murder.”
The worst atrocities committed against Khmer people were committed by other Khmer people…. The KR was an appalling brutal flowering of this, but atrocities had already become the norm under Sihanouk (and indeed regions controlled by Khmer Issarak as well) and also under Lon Nol.
Hun Sen is continuing a tradition of Khmer brutality that has little to do with America and much to do with Khmers…..
The human rights situation in Cambodia remains appalling and it is something HRW cannot fail to ignore…. The recent murder of Chut Wutty harks straight back to the murder of trade unionist, Chea Vichea, and the bad old days before that ….. Om Radsady gunned down outside a noodle shop on Moninvong in broad daylight, grenade attacks against opposition demonstrators etc etc….. It goes on.
This is a pattern of human rights abuses that has been well learned by Hun Sen…. And he is in a line of those who perpetrate them…. Sinanouk, Lon Nol…. The explosion of horror that was the Khmer Rouge….. And now Hun Sen…… Khmer killing Khmer and the exercise of raw, naked power….. Go figure.
Reconciliation games
A good piece Nick.
Do you think the fractures in the red shirt movement, especially those that were exacerbated by the rushed amnesty/reconcilliation bill, have been reversed in a sustainable way?
Will the PTP top brass/Thaksin be likely to listen more to those who want to see full investigations into 2010 conducted and justice to be done? Or is amnesty too significant a part of the deal Thaksin/PTP has made with the army etc, for it do be changed?
Also, what about the Sai Loh Fah brigades? You’ve mentioned how the Democrat sponsored TV channel has some very grim content which engourages extremism… do you expect this group to emerge as a significant force? What role do you expect it to play among the pro-establishment colours (Multicolours, PAD/Santi-Asoke etc)? The old yellows seem to be on the wane with Siam Semmakhi emerging as a more resolute force. Do you expect Sai Loh Fah to be a more broadbased/middle-class movement, or will carry all the extremist baggage that the other groups have/do?
Cheers