Khun Sawarin: I like your conclusion in the last comment “…I wouldn’t call Anna an ‘educator’, an educator not only encourages their students to strive for the best, she also ensures that her students lead a moral and ethical life. It’s a common human nature to long for successful or meaningful life, but the means of getting there really reflects who we are. Only the Real will be remembered, with respect.” I couldn’t agree more.
Khun Susans: As far as I know, actually Anna would like to come back to Siam. She asked for an advance but the king did not agree. Landon quoted the letter in her book.
And I agree it was Landon who actually made up “the Anna myth” not Anna herself.
Also there was a record (in Thai) of King Mongkut’s complaints about Anna and her being ‘a busy-body’ politically.
Surprisingly when Anna was in Germany, King Chulalongkorn, who was also visiting the country, granted her a very brief audience, compared to the much longer audience he granted the wife of the Belgian advisor who once lived in Siam (I can’t remember the name–I’m just writing from my impression of the reading)–which I find very interesting, considering his acquaintance with both of them. The record is in his memoirs in Thai entitled “/klaii-baan/Far from Home.” (sometime in 1898)
And I also heard another ‘story’ about Anna’s answer to the king, about her “having to tell the truth.” In my story, Anna reportedly said, “I had to please my publisher.” Sorry, I cannot recall the source.
Khun Alfred Habegger: I enjoy your comments. Think I need to read much more. Thankx.
I think people have to have faith. People should just come together and do the right thing. Put aside all the politically stuff and focus on what is important. The land and the people in it.
[…] sites have been posting data on and water. These from New Mandala and its readers: rainfall data and cumulative dam discharges. The Thai Meteorological Office has data on total rain to date in […]
Khun Rich, thank you, I was hoping for Chamlong or Samak but they were otherwise engaged in the mid-80’s. I worked in Fortune Town (famous Din Daeng intersection) a few years after that and walked to and from work from my place on Asoke just past the bridge over the San Saeb Khlong on the way back. Often enough the direct route home included going past it to Soi Cowboy then, somewhat later, back up Soi 23 through the campus. More than one evening, the trip would be done in a conga line of hundreds and hundreds of people, the front guy gingerly testing each step, the rest of us grateful to follow, water to the knees, maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher. The high stools were out on Cowboy.
“…has the better budget and can arrest Malaysia’s soaring public debt.” This seems to be a worldwide phenomenon, governments spending their countries into bankruptcy as politicians try to buy votes with expensive social programs and keep expanding bureaucracies that stifle enterprise. Lets see we have Europe, the USA and Australia is now in a mad rush spending and taxing so as to not to be left behind at the abyss of social and economic collapse. Good to see the Islamists are just as stupid so we know it isn’t a religious leaning.
At least the 1% will weather the storm quite nicely, just as rich, and will be there to pick up the pieces offering some new contrivance of corrupted government that continues to benefits them. Ironic really, we have the socialists and the capitalists working hand in hand in pursuance of greed and ideology to wreck the world’s economies.
A Noo NY Mouse – knowing the mean and the standard deviation of data that follows a normal distribution can be useful in predicting the liklihood of a particular value occurring. However, I rather doubt that the normal distribution applies to rainfall data.
To get an idea of the variation I suggest you take a good look at the discharge (should read storage I think) data from the Bumipol dam on comment # 6 above.
All the graphs from 1993 to 2011 show a steep rise in water stored from about July onwards. For prediction purposes I would suggest a regression on the daily increment which could then be used to determine, when and how much release should take place to avoid a great flood.
What do you mean by there is no democratically elected government at the time of the coup? True, the government in office on the day of the coup is an interim one. But they did win the election. Unfortunately, the Court deemed the election to be invalid, as the Democrat Party refused to participate BY THEIR OWN WILL (<–and this very inconvenient fact always seemed to be left out as well).
The court declared the election invalid because the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election.
The boycott cause the EC to struggle to certify the required number of MP’s in order to start the Parliament, which they had not done by the time of the court decision.
I have no problem with your condemning the coup, but there are ample reasons to do so without resorting to hyperbole and inaccuracies parroting the propagandas of paid lobbies. Correcting such inaccuracies is not in any way defending or condoning the coup.
Excellent points A Noo NY Mouse. How about you do a little bit of web-searching and find the standard deviation data. Would be very happy to post it. AW
After Ayutthaya was sacked in 1767, the Siamese moved their kingdom to Thon Buri-Bangkok *as the surrounding areas are flooded during the monsoon season, keeping the Burmese invaders out*.
A Bangkok governor once said: *The Burmese don’t come any more, but the floods do*.
There are ways to speak about this topic without lese majeste teleporting you immediately into the slammer. There are ways.
We need to – so delicately, yes – speak about this subject or all of us who live in this nation are in dire trouble.
I think your lighting tips were spot on, but the content’s the key.
Commending all those who speak out on such a taboo subject and those who worked to bring us this vodcast is praise much needed. Bravo. These sharp, well-informed academics need to be heard. But so does your voice. I understand the problems of doing so all too well, yet you must find a way or the tanks with the pink ribbons will roll again and again…
But titling aside the report quotes numerous figures about water flows. Although based on the apparent innumeracy of Post editorial staff as shown by decades of misreporting numbers, if one takes the figures as correct, what do they imply about the “speeding up Chao Phraya River flow by a factor of three from tug boats” ?
Firstly we have:
“… Chalit Damrongsak, director-general of the Irrigation Department, reported that floodwaters from Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani were flowing at 120 million cubic metres per second to eastern Bangkok, 100 million cu m/s to western Bangkok and 480 million cu m/s from 300,000 rai of fields from the Raphiphat canal to the Rangsit Prayoonsak canal north of Bangkok.”
This would appear to add up to a total flow of 700 million cu m/s flowing towards the sea.
Then:
“More than 8 billion cu m of floodwaters are flowing from Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani towards Bangkok.” &
“The Chao Phraya River discharges less than 200 million cu m/day while attempts to divert floodwater via the east and west of the capital can drain only about 86 million cu m daily.”
If the flow figures for the river are converted to the same cu m/s units that Chalit uses, i.e. dividing by 86,400 = 60*60*24 being the number of seconds in a day, we see that the Chao Phraya River discharges less than .0023 million cu m/second, or thanks to the boats maybe .007 million cu m/s. Now this latter figure turns out to be 1/100,000 of the 700 million cu m/s reported above which would make the tug boat exercise a waste of money.
However, what about the “8 billion cu m of floodwaters are flowing.. towards Bangkok” ? At a flow rate of 700 million cu m/s this should pass in eleven seconds.
So now I am thoroughly confused and wonder how I managed to excel at 3rd grade arithmetic?
IMO, I think there was a precedent for this, Pridi nullifying the declaration of war by Phibun’s coup after WWII (but you might want to recheck this).
It’s either Nitirat Group can do this or Pridi nullifying was invalid, but cant be both.
However, Pridi legitimacy seem to risen from revolution and Phibun from coup. So if the next coup decide to step it up as revolution, then that could be another matter???
Average and current value don’t mean anything without knowing the standard deviation. How much does the rainfall vary by year?
For instance, an average person’s weight in Thailand may be 60kg, but I’d hardly call a 120kg person an exceptional calamity who should cause lifts to fall down shafts and floors to cave in. On the other hand, average height is 160 cm, but there are no 320 cm tall people, and if one appeared, I bet they wouldn’t fit anywhere.
Did you watch the vodcast yourself? If so, you should be able to figure out why I wont/cant comment on the content (which you so kindly reminded us is the King, thank you) and people are relegated to discussing flag design: We cant comment on the topic because of the harsh penalties involved in doing so, and there are around 67 million of us who dont have the luxury of being able to openly discuss an issue which affects us so directly, and thats not counting those with familial, occupational or other ties to the Kingdom. I cannot speak on behalf of other posters, but I value my family & friends, career & livelihood and freedom, so I refrain from commenting on the topic in a public forum. Is that a “cop-out”?
In case you missed the intent of my og post, it was to a) register appreciation to all those involved in making the vodcasts, particularly the ones with the courage to speak on such a taboo subject and open themselves up to the liabilities I mentioned; and b) give some constructive criticism of the vodcasts in the hopes that higher production quality might help bring more attention to the issue that affects so many of us.
Best regards, Ricardo
ps – I also found it amusing that you took the time to post your disapproval of us wont/cants while you, yourself didnt make any comment on the topic at hand.
pps – When attempting to be pithy, try to get your quotes right.
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Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
WhereisThailand had what I thought was an interesting article on dams and the water behind them which I tried translating.
Some of the references are especially interesting.
Many people who have looked into the matter claim that dams cause floods, the opposite of what the dam builders say, of course.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
BP is not the only one confused about flood volumes see also my comment 21 on a parallel post:
http://www.newmandala.org/2011/10/07/floods-hacks-and-the-nitirat-effect/
Review of Bombay Anna
Khun Sawarin: I like your conclusion in the last comment “…I wouldn’t call Anna an ‘educator’, an educator not only encourages their students to strive for the best, she also ensures that her students lead a moral and ethical life. It’s a common human nature to long for successful or meaningful life, but the means of getting there really reflects who we are. Only the Real will be remembered, with respect.” I couldn’t agree more.
Khun Susans: As far as I know, actually Anna would like to come back to Siam. She asked for an advance but the king did not agree. Landon quoted the letter in her book.
And I agree it was Landon who actually made up “the Anna myth” not Anna herself.
Also there was a record (in Thai) of King Mongkut’s complaints about Anna and her being ‘a busy-body’ politically.
Surprisingly when Anna was in Germany, King Chulalongkorn, who was also visiting the country, granted her a very brief audience, compared to the much longer audience he granted the wife of the Belgian advisor who once lived in Siam (I can’t remember the name–I’m just writing from my impression of the reading)–which I find very interesting, considering his acquaintance with both of them. The record is in his memoirs in Thai entitled “/klaii-baan/Far from Home.” (sometime in 1898)
And I also heard another ‘story’ about Anna’s answer to the king, about her “having to tell the truth.” In my story, Anna reportedly said, “I had to please my publisher.” Sorry, I cannot recall the source.
Khun Alfred Habegger: I enjoy your comments. Think I need to read much more. Thankx.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
I think people have to have faith. People should just come together and do the right thing. Put aside all the politically stuff and focus on what is important. The land and the people in it.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
[…] sites have been posting data on and water. These from New Mandala and its readers: rainfall data and cumulative dam discharges. The Thai Meteorological Office has data on total rain to date in […]
Nitirat: monarchy, constitution and democracy
John Smith – 15
but there are ample reasons to do so without resorting to hyperbole and inaccuracies parroting the propagandas of paid lobbies.
Cannot sense anything else but irony, your statement about “There was no “democratically elected government ” at that time.” wasnt so accurate either.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
Khun Rich, thank you, I was hoping for Chamlong or Samak but they were otherwise engaged in the mid-80’s. I worked in Fortune Town (famous Din Daeng intersection) a few years after that and walked to and from work from my place on Asoke just past the bridge over the San Saeb Khlong on the way back. Often enough the direct route home included going past it to Soi Cowboy then, somewhat later, back up Soi 23 through the campus. More than one evening, the trip would be done in a conga line of hundreds and hundreds of people, the front guy gingerly testing each step, the rest of us grateful to follow, water to the knees, maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher. The high stools were out on Cowboy.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
@phktresident
Sorry, can’t recall the name.
It was during the *seasonal floods* in the mid-1980s.
The governor was quoted by TIME magazine.
Malaysia’s 2012 Budget
“…has the better budget and can arrest Malaysia’s soaring public debt.” This seems to be a worldwide phenomenon, governments spending their countries into bankruptcy as politicians try to buy votes with expensive social programs and keep expanding bureaucracies that stifle enterprise. Lets see we have Europe, the USA and Australia is now in a mad rush spending and taxing so as to not to be left behind at the abyss of social and economic collapse. Good to see the Islamists are just as stupid so we know it isn’t a religious leaning.
At least the 1% will weather the storm quite nicely, just as rich, and will be there to pick up the pieces offering some new contrivance of corrupted government that continues to benefits them. Ironic really, we have the socialists and the capitalists working hand in hand in pursuance of greed and ideology to wreck the world’s economies.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
Which governor made the apt comment in Khun Rich’s mail?
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
[…] rainfall figure appears to be a nationwide figure whereas for Bangkok and many Northern provinces the level of rainfall has been […]
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
A Noo NY Mouse – knowing the mean and the standard deviation of data that follows a normal distribution can be useful in predicting the liklihood of a particular value occurring. However, I rather doubt that the normal distribution applies to rainfall data.
To get an idea of the variation I suggest you take a good look at the discharge (should read storage I think) data from the Bumipol dam on comment # 6 above.
All the graphs from 1993 to 2011 show a steep rise in water stored from about July onwards. For prediction purposes I would suggest a regression on the daily increment which could then be used to determine, when and how much release should take place to avoid a great flood.
Nitirat: monarchy, constitution and democracy
Ct #10
What do you mean by there is no democratically elected government at the time of the coup? True, the government in office on the day of the coup is an interim one. But they did win the election. Unfortunately, the Court deemed the election to be invalid, as the Democrat Party refused to participate BY THEIR OWN WILL (<–and this very inconvenient fact always seemed to be left out as well).
The court declared the election invalid because the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election.
The boycott cause the EC to struggle to certify the required number of MP’s in order to start the Parliament, which they had not done by the time of the court decision.
I have no problem with your condemning the coup, but there are ample reasons to do so without resorting to hyperbole and inaccuracies parroting the propagandas of paid lobbies. Correcting such inaccuracies is not in any way defending or condoning the coup.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
Excellent points A Noo NY Mouse. How about you do a little bit of web-searching and find the standard deviation data. Would be very happy to post it. AW
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
After Ayutthaya was sacked in 1767, the Siamese moved their kingdom to Thon Buri-Bangkok *as the surrounding areas are flooded during the monsoon season, keeping the Burmese invaders out*.
A Bangkok governor once said: *The Burmese don’t come any more, but the floods do*.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Ricardo:
There are ways to speak about this topic without lese majeste teleporting you immediately into the slammer. There are ways.
We need to – so delicately, yes – speak about this subject or all of us who live in this nation are in dire trouble.
I think your lighting tips were spot on, but the content’s the key.
Commending all those who speak out on such a taboo subject and those who worked to bring us this vodcast is praise much needed. Bravo. These sharp, well-informed academics need to be heard. But so does your voice. I understand the problems of doing so all too well, yet you must find a way or the tanks with the pink ribbons will roll again and again…
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
Today’s Bangkok Post has a story “Govt sacrifices eastern Bangkok” which probably should have been titled “Govt follows King’s advice and sacrifices eastern Bangkok”
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262211/govt-sacrifices-eastern-bangkok
But titling aside the report quotes numerous figures about water flows. Although based on the apparent innumeracy of Post editorial staff as shown by decades of misreporting numbers, if one takes the figures as correct, what do they imply about the “speeding up Chao Phraya River flow by a factor of three from tug boats” ?
Firstly we have:
“… Chalit Damrongsak, director-general of the Irrigation Department, reported that floodwaters from Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani were flowing at 120 million cubic metres per second to eastern Bangkok, 100 million cu m/s to western Bangkok and 480 million cu m/s from 300,000 rai of fields from the Raphiphat canal to the Rangsit Prayoonsak canal north of Bangkok.”
This would appear to add up to a total flow of 700 million cu m/s flowing towards the sea.
Then:
“More than 8 billion cu m of floodwaters are flowing from Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani towards Bangkok.” &
“The Chao Phraya River discharges less than 200 million cu m/day while attempts to divert floodwater via the east and west of the capital can drain only about 86 million cu m daily.”
If the flow figures for the river are converted to the same cu m/s units that Chalit uses, i.e. dividing by 86,400 = 60*60*24 being the number of seconds in a day, we see that the Chao Phraya River discharges less than .0023 million cu m/second, or thanks to the boats maybe .007 million cu m/s. Now this latter figure turns out to be 1/100,000 of the 700 million cu m/s reported above which would make the tug boat exercise a waste of money.
However, what about the “8 billion cu m of floodwaters are flowing.. towards Bangkok” ? At a flow rate of 700 million cu m/s this should pass in eleven seconds.
So now I am thoroughly confused and wonder how I managed to excel at 3rd grade arithmetic?
Nitirat: monarchy, constitution and democracy
@Johninbkk (12)
IMO, I think there was a precedent for this, Pridi nullifying the declaration of war by Phibun’s coup after WWII (but you might want to recheck this).
It’s either Nitirat Group can do this or Pridi nullifying was invalid, but cant be both.
However, Pridi legitimacy seem to risen from revolution and Phibun from coup. So if the next coup decide to step it up as revolution, then that could be another matter???
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
Average and current value don’t mean anything without knowing the standard deviation. How much does the rainfall vary by year?
For instance, an average person’s weight in Thailand may be 60kg, but I’d hardly call a 120kg person an exceptional calamity who should cause lifts to fall down shafts and floors to cave in. On the other hand, average height is 160 cm, but there are no 320 cm tall people, and if one appeared, I bet they wouldn’t fit anywhere.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Denis Johnson,
Did you watch the vodcast yourself? If so, you should be able to figure out why I wont/cant comment on the content (which you so kindly reminded us is the King, thank you) and people are relegated to discussing flag design: We cant comment on the topic because of the harsh penalties involved in doing so, and there are around 67 million of us who dont have the luxury of being able to openly discuss an issue which affects us so directly, and thats not counting those with familial, occupational or other ties to the Kingdom. I cannot speak on behalf of other posters, but I value my family & friends, career & livelihood and freedom, so I refrain from commenting on the topic in a public forum. Is that a “cop-out”?
In case you missed the intent of my og post, it was to a) register appreciation to all those involved in making the vodcasts, particularly the ones with the courage to speak on such a taboo subject and open themselves up to the liabilities I mentioned; and b) give some constructive criticism of the vodcasts in the hopes that higher production quality might help bring more attention to the issue that affects so many of us.
Best regards, Ricardo
ps – I also found it amusing that you took the time to post your disapproval of us wont/cants while you, yourself didnt make any comment on the topic at hand.
pps – When attempting to be pithy, try to get your quotes right.