I think it is undemocratic to say that Thaksin should “limit his ambitions” (I’m not even sure what ambitions you mean), and frankly, an insult to PT voters.
Thaksin has won 5 elections in a row, the last 3 under the most difficult of circumstances. In the most recent campaign, PT campaigned on a platform that a vote for PT was a vote for Thaksin – and the party has won an emphatic victory. Everyone knows Yinglak is a proxy for Thaksin, it is naive to expect anything else but that Thaksin will be in control. But why not? To say that Thaksin should limit his ambitions is tantamount to diminishing the results of the election.
The fact is that since 2005 Thaksin’s “ambitions” have already been repeatedly “limited” in the most undemocratic way by the royal family and their allies.
Why not not call for their ambitions to be limited?
It is the monarchy that must limit its ambitions, or rather, be forced to have its ambitions limited – along the lines that Somsak and the Nitirat group and the anti-112 campaigners in Thailand have proposed: abolishing lese majeste, abolishing the privy council, abolishing the daily propaganda barrage about the royal family in the media and the education system, repealing the Crown Property Act, etc. etc.
It is unfortunate that too few of their farang counterparts in the safety of countries beyond the reach of the lese majeste law appear willing to join them in calling for such reforms. I am continually puzzled at the reticence in the foreign media to subject the monarchy to the same criticism that it levels at Thaksin, given everything we now know about the monarchy.
I also think it is a real problem that the commentariat dwells on the problem of the succession but has nothing to say about the need to reform the structure of the monarchy. Whoever succeeds to the throne, the problem will remain, the profoundly undemocratic nature of the institution of the monarchy itself. Unless these reforms are made the monarchy and its allies will continue to thwart the “ambitions” of democratically-elected governments.
On the specific point in italics, the problem of such an approach is that appeasing the palace and military elites is probably just putting off the inevitable. The current incumbents in those elites are never likely to support a PT government. It is a Thaksin govt for them and their personal hatred of Thaksin is unlikely to just fade. For many who voted for PT, the injustices inherent in this system have to be faced and they know that will be a conflicted process. PT may try to appease, but they will blocked, corralled and attacked.
There is unlikely to be any acceptance of a notion that PT has a mandate. After all, that only came from an election. The real mandate is from other places.
“…CAUCUS is in revolt over the treatment of cattle exported to Indonesia but not over the plan to export people to Malaysia, possibly the most racist nation in South-East Asia…”
1969 is more ambiguous than this. Elections in Sabah and Sarawak were
suspended for some time, and there was always the possibility that
this could give the desired 2/3 majority.
From memory, in the end the government technically fell one short but with a promise from some opposition MPs that they would not vote against constitutional change — giving in effect a 2/3 majority.
Can someone help me here? The EC is saying that Chuwit is to blame for so many spoiled votes. They say this is because people marked 5 on the constituency list as well as on the party list. I haven’t seen a constituency ballot paper. Does it mean that in each constituency that every party is listed and not just those standing in that constituency? I asked a friend and was told it is just the candidates in the constituency listed. How does this statement by the EC make any sense?
What did you expect? For this lot, the only election victory that counts is the one that they (might, eventually) win. The emails, twitters, FBs, etc. are to rally the support for the group that one email called “those of us who hate Thaksin.”
I would like to point out to her detractors that, besides her nice white skin, Yingluk is also able to pronounce “accelerate”. Her mastery was confirmed in an ABC interview, although she appeared to mentally steel herself. I’ll offer to marry her if she pronouces “rubbish bin” correctly. In fact, I shall lite her a rove retter lite now.
[…] Walker e Nicholas Farrelly, escrevendo para New Mandala, esperam que a Tail├вndia reconstrua [en] sua confian├зa nos processos eleitorais e democr├бticos: Tonight’s result is a remarkable […]
How can a country like Thailand achieve ‘national unity’ when the whole of society is under the control of wealthy patrons, who with their wealth, power and influence have the majority of the population brainwashed into subservience.
Democracy has no chance in an environment that is controlled by people who rule with impunity and unfortunately are envied by the masses.
CT. 42
Don’t worry my friend.
They understand democracy only too well from their expensive educations. However Mom and Pop have explained life’s realities to them at an early age. It is not deemed suitable for thai society as it remains.
Wealth, the getting of it and keeping it in the family by whatever means necessary are life’s priorities.
You’ll find this philosophy applies outside most temple walls to Amaart and Prai alike. ( and inside some temples too….)
From what I have seen of Khun Yinglak so far, I believe she will make a good prime minister because of her strength of character, her mature personality, and her intellectual power as can be seen in her handling of a variety of topics. Thailand is lucky to have her as prime minister. She will surely make a better prime minister than you know who.
Anyone who has studied the political history of Thailand’s democracy would clearly know that not only Thaksin but the vast majority of Thai politicians both civilian and military past and present have been ” notorious for blurring personal commercial gain and public policy”.
Political reports on the ongoing conflict have failed to discuss the underbelly of Thai society, where patrons at all levels across Thailand continue to drag the country back, through a system that not only has its own rules and laws but is accepted as some sort of pseudo culture within the mainstream.
Exposing the devastating effect the ‘patronage system’ has on Thailand’s democracy seems to have been conveniently left out in terms of the .moving forward’ all parties talk about.
Thai politicians. the military and the police together with the elite across the whole of Thailand operate there businesses in a ‘clique’ like fashion, they all adhere to the archaic ‘patronage system’ of doing business. It is the antithesis of democracy!
On listening to Kevin Rudd last night on the ABC talking about the situation he failed to mention any of the real core problems facing the country when it comes to this system and the resulting corruption which is integral to its survival.
Australia has a trade agreement with Thailand which I find hard to understand in terms of working transparently, as the kingdom’s corruption rating is one of the highest in South East Asia.
Do I take it that Australian investors must pay tribute/bribes to wealthy Thai patrons in order to do business or is this all conveniently kept under the table so as not to expose real core issues as to why Thailand can not reform its facade of a democracy.
It seems from a novices perspective that making money through deceptive and unethical practices and keeping the broader population under control for the sake of the corrupt few seems to be the continuing order of the day in the Land of the FREE!!!
When will they tell it as it is???
“For the first time ever the opposition prevented the government obtaining a two thirds majority in parliament (important both psychologically and to ensure the constitution cannot be changed at will), and won power in its own right in five states.”
correction: the long-dominant ruling coalition previously lost its tw0-thirds majority in the 1969 polls that precipitated the bloody riots of May 13.
confidence, as ever, remains key to salving the self-inflicted wounds of UMNO – when in doubt, cracking down on external enemies a la ‘yellow shirt’ Bersih2.0 is a whole lot easier than addressing the power struggle inside UMNO now underway.
I’m sorry, my math is wrong, Steve is totally right – I am no good with numbers. Let me correct myself.
Of the 74% the Election Commission said showed up to vote, only 40% actually cast a vote for PTP, not even a majority out of the 74%. But when you consider total eligible voters, only 29.6% voted for Peua Thai. That’s not a mandate, that’s a symptom of a whole system that is illegitimate.
My 38% number came from counting the seats PTP won, not the actual number of people who voted. So 29.6%, even if I round it up to 30% out of generosity is admittedly embarrassing for a party that claims to represent the aspirations of a new Thai era….
Now you can say they have “more of a mandate” than the Democrats, but I think that’s a lot like saying a 5th grader is more qualified to carry out brain surgery than a 3rd grader. In reality neither belongs in the hospital let alone the operating theater.
It seems the election of Yingluck raised many questions. In this atmosphere of uncertainty I think she should hurry to take important measures which would clearly define her political project and give reality to her purposes. If she failed to do so, confusion may arise among some of her supporters.
The question of her brother should also quickly be settled.
Thai should take care of themselves, and I am not sure any international intervention would be helpful.
Thailand has the strentgh and will have the intelligence to find peace and provide the world with a new model.
As usual, in such a debate, a question remains : people have cast their votes, but where does the power lie?
I have been reading comments on Facebook which my friends who are ‘yellow’ made, and I just feel sick to stomach. It seems they just can’t accept it. Many of them are making claims such as:
-This is the proof that Thailand should not be a democracy, because the majority of the people in this country are so uneducated, and any choice they made are uneducated, and it is bad for Thailand in a long run.
-I think new rules should be implemented, that the “richer” one is, the more vote they should have. Peasants in the rural area should have one vote, but as I am way richer than them, my vote should be deemed as two votes.
-This is bad. Because 60% of Thai population are thieves, thus they chose ‘thieves’ to be the leader.
-I want the army to stage a coup. I cannot accept our country to be ruled by this family.
-These uneducated peasants have no access to media that we have (I am assuming they are talking about ASTV, Manager etc which are one-sided hatred propaganda type of media, which would be banned in the west). So they have no idea that they got it all wrong to entrust a country with that family.
etc etc (I am not going to read all of those nonsense. Just reading this much is more than enough).
It is ironic really that these so called ‘educated’ people still don’t understand the basic concept of democracy. For them democracy only applies when they themselves win, and should they lose, they think democracy should not apply.
If all those fancy educations they have had cannot even make them understand democracy, then they should really start to really think about what they have learned during the period of their ‘education’. Did they learn to think by themselves, or they have learned to believe everything they have been taught without asking questions? If it is not the first and it is the latter, then all the time they have spent during their education is probably a waste. Because they end up becoming just another victim of state indoctrination, and they are the reason why the conflict in Thailand never resolves.
Agree totally. Pundit’s analysis is interesting, but does not confront the issue about the design of the ballot papers, which was different from previous polls, different between the constituency and party-list, and hence very confusing — creating a “hanging chad” opportunity.
I’d love to investigate the distribution, but where is the data? I can’t find it. If anyone else can point to a source, I’ll work on it.
#8 Marc
Agree again. Which is exactly why I commented about the margins in the short (2 a.m., heavily jet-lagged) text on the post It’s striking how large are the majorities for both parties in their heartlands (S for DP, Upper N and NE for PT), and how tight are many of the contests elsewhere.
How to map this? Maybe a map where the shading shows the percentage gap between the first and second candidate. Anyone else got suggestions? Marc?
How could BN… or I should mention UMNO (as other components parties are dead wood and puppets) allow this Berseh reforms to take place?
UMNO will be finishes once and for all….
What it means? Rakyat shall power through regardless of some obstructions.
Thanks to the Mamakthir, the Ruler want to help but he may be constrained by new constitutions.
Regardless, EC head must roll and reform must take place! Or else, it’s waste of Rakyat’s time to vote as UMNO will simply add votes or change the ballot boxes to neutralise Rakyat’s choice.
UMNO probably know that UMNO has been sentenced to DEATH penalty by Rakyat.
Not even a day in the office, and already a lot of the opposition is setting deadlines for her to keep promise. 9 months, they said. While the same ones won’t even asked Abhisit when he failed abysmally to deliver any of his.
C. Yossarian #4,
Talking about Suthep’s lovable Black shirts, are we? 400-500 ghosts that seems to disappeared into the clouds under the nose of fully armed 30,000 troops with APCs & Helicopters? (I know their competence is in question, with GT200 and all)
I guess you must have some new evidence to share with us? DSI seem to take their time in finding out anything. I was sure we won’t find out soon who is behind this. But seeing that you’re so sure..
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Thailand’s precarious politics
I think it is undemocratic to say that Thaksin should “limit his ambitions” (I’m not even sure what ambitions you mean), and frankly, an insult to PT voters.
Thaksin has won 5 elections in a row, the last 3 under the most difficult of circumstances. In the most recent campaign, PT campaigned on a platform that a vote for PT was a vote for Thaksin – and the party has won an emphatic victory. Everyone knows Yinglak is a proxy for Thaksin, it is naive to expect anything else but that Thaksin will be in control. But why not? To say that Thaksin should limit his ambitions is tantamount to diminishing the results of the election.
The fact is that since 2005 Thaksin’s “ambitions” have already been repeatedly “limited” in the most undemocratic way by the royal family and their allies.
Why not not call for their ambitions to be limited?
It is the monarchy that must limit its ambitions, or rather, be forced to have its ambitions limited – along the lines that Somsak and the Nitirat group and the anti-112 campaigners in Thailand have proposed: abolishing lese majeste, abolishing the privy council, abolishing the daily propaganda barrage about the royal family in the media and the education system, repealing the Crown Property Act, etc. etc.
It is unfortunate that too few of their farang counterparts in the safety of countries beyond the reach of the lese majeste law appear willing to join them in calling for such reforms. I am continually puzzled at the reticence in the foreign media to subject the monarchy to the same criticism that it levels at Thaksin, given everything we now know about the monarchy.
I also think it is a real problem that the commentariat dwells on the problem of the succession but has nothing to say about the need to reform the structure of the monarchy. Whoever succeeds to the throne, the problem will remain, the profoundly undemocratic nature of the institution of the monarchy itself. Unless these reforms are made the monarchy and its allies will continue to thwart the “ambitions” of democratically-elected governments.
Thailand’s precarious politics
On the specific point in italics, the problem of such an approach is that appeasing the palace and military elites is probably just putting off the inevitable. The current incumbents in those elites are never likely to support a PT government. It is a Thaksin govt for them and their personal hatred of Thaksin is unlikely to just fade. For many who voted for PT, the injustices inherent in this system have to be faced and they know that will be a conflicted process. PT may try to appease, but they will blocked, corralled and attacked.
There is unlikely to be any acceptance of a notion that PT has a mandate. After all, that only came from an election. The real mandate is from other places.
Australians, cattles, refugees and Four Corners
“…CAUCUS is in revolt over the treatment of cattle exported to Indonesia but not over the plan to export people to Malaysia, possibly the most racist nation in South-East Asia…”
Piers Akerman in The Telegraph
Hmm…wonder if Piers is referring to the government of Malaysia or the people of Malaysia?
Malaysia in turmoil?
Response from the author to #1:
1969 is more ambiguous than this. Elections in Sabah and Sarawak were
suspended for some time, and there was always the possibility that
this could give the desired 2/3 majority.
From memory, in the end the government technically fell one short but with a promise from some opposition MPs that they would not vote against constitutional change — giving in effect a 2/3 majority.
Regional voting
Can someone help me here? The EC is saying that Chuwit is to blame for so many spoiled votes. They say this is because people marked 5 on the constituency list as well as on the party list. I haven’t seen a constituency ballot paper. Does it mean that in each constituency that every party is listed and not just those standing in that constituency? I asked a friend and was told it is just the candidates in the constituency listed. How does this statement by the EC make any sense?
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
What did you expect? For this lot, the only election victory that counts is the one that they (might, eventually) win. The emails, twitters, FBs, etc. are to rally the support for the group that one email called “those of us who hate Thaksin.”
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra р╣Бр╕Ыр╕ер╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕ар╕▓р╕йр╕▓р╣Др╕Чр╕в
I would like to point out to her detractors that, besides her nice white skin, Yingluk is also able to pronounce “accelerate”. Her mastery was confirmed in an ABC interview, although she appeared to mentally steel herself. I’ll offer to marry her if she pronouces “rubbish bin” correctly. In fact, I shall lite her a rove retter lite now.
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
@CT. 42
I can confirm I’m seeing the same on mine, too. I have a few additions:
– Just because the majority says what is right or wrong, that doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong.
(well, at least this is logically correct)
– “тАО95% of Thai people don’t want Yingluck. RIP TT”
(several people clicked ‘Like’ to this one)
– Because voter turnout was only 70%, that means only 30% wanted PTP. So they aren’t the majority.
(this one, in various forms, was posted many times)
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
[…] Walker e Nicholas Farrelly, escrevendo para New Mandala, esperam que a Tail├вndia reconstrua [en] sua confian├зa nos processos eleitorais e democr├бticos: Tonight’s result is a remarkable […]
National unity?
How can a country like Thailand achieve ‘national unity’ when the whole of society is under the control of wealthy patrons, who with their wealth, power and influence have the majority of the population brainwashed into subservience.
Democracy has no chance in an environment that is controlled by people who rule with impunity and unfortunately are envied by the masses.
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
CT. 42
Don’t worry my friend.
They understand democracy only too well from their expensive educations. However Mom and Pop have explained life’s realities to them at an early age. It is not deemed suitable for thai society as it remains.
Wealth, the getting of it and keeping it in the family by whatever means necessary are life’s priorities.
You’ll find this philosophy applies outside most temple walls to Amaart and Prai alike. ( and inside some temples too….)
Thailand’s precarious politics
From what I have seen of Khun Yinglak so far, I believe she will make a good prime minister because of her strength of character, her mature personality, and her intellectual power as can be seen in her handling of a variety of topics. Thailand is lucky to have her as prime minister. She will surely make a better prime minister than you know who.
Thailand’s precarious politics
Anyone who has studied the political history of Thailand’s democracy would clearly know that not only Thaksin but the vast majority of Thai politicians both civilian and military past and present have been ” notorious for blurring personal commercial gain and public policy”.
Political reports on the ongoing conflict have failed to discuss the underbelly of Thai society, where patrons at all levels across Thailand continue to drag the country back, through a system that not only has its own rules and laws but is accepted as some sort of pseudo culture within the mainstream.
Exposing the devastating effect the ‘patronage system’ has on Thailand’s democracy seems to have been conveniently left out in terms of the .moving forward’ all parties talk about.
Thai politicians. the military and the police together with the elite across the whole of Thailand operate there businesses in a ‘clique’ like fashion, they all adhere to the archaic ‘patronage system’ of doing business. It is the antithesis of democracy!
On listening to Kevin Rudd last night on the ABC talking about the situation he failed to mention any of the real core problems facing the country when it comes to this system and the resulting corruption which is integral to its survival.
Australia has a trade agreement with Thailand which I find hard to understand in terms of working transparently, as the kingdom’s corruption rating is one of the highest in South East Asia.
Do I take it that Australian investors must pay tribute/bribes to wealthy Thai patrons in order to do business or is this all conveniently kept under the table so as not to expose real core issues as to why Thailand can not reform its facade of a democracy.
It seems from a novices perspective that making money through deceptive and unethical practices and keeping the broader population under control for the sake of the corrupt few seems to be the continuing order of the day in the Land of the FREE!!!
When will they tell it as it is???
Malaysia in turmoil?
“For the first time ever the opposition prevented the government obtaining a two thirds majority in parliament (important both psychologically and to ensure the constitution cannot be changed at will), and won power in its own right in five states.”
correction: the long-dominant ruling coalition previously lost its tw0-thirds majority in the 1969 polls that precipitated the bloody riots of May 13.
confidence, as ever, remains key to salving the self-inflicted wounds of UMNO – when in doubt, cracking down on external enemies a la ‘yellow shirt’ Bersih2.0 is a whole lot easier than addressing the power struggle inside UMNO now underway.
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
I’m sorry, my math is wrong, Steve is totally right – I am no good with numbers. Let me correct myself.
Of the 74% the Election Commission said showed up to vote, only 40% actually cast a vote for PTP, not even a majority out of the 74%. But when you consider total eligible voters, only 29.6% voted for Peua Thai. That’s not a mandate, that’s a symptom of a whole system that is illegitimate.
My 38% number came from counting the seats PTP won, not the actual number of people who voted. So 29.6%, even if I round it up to 30% out of generosity is admittedly embarrassing for a party that claims to represent the aspirations of a new Thai era….
Now you can say they have “more of a mandate” than the Democrats, but I think that’s a lot like saying a 5th grader is more qualified to carry out brain surgery than a 3rd grader. In reality neither belongs in the hospital let alone the operating theater.
Party for Pheua Thai
It seems the election of Yingluck raised many questions. In this atmosphere of uncertainty I think she should hurry to take important measures which would clearly define her political project and give reality to her purposes. If she failed to do so, confusion may arise among some of her supporters.
The question of her brother should also quickly be settled.
Thai should take care of themselves, and I am not sure any international intervention would be helpful.
Thailand has the strentgh and will have the intelligence to find peace and provide the world with a new model.
As usual, in such a debate, a question remains : people have cast their votes, but where does the power lie?
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
I have been reading comments on Facebook which my friends who are ‘yellow’ made, and I just feel sick to stomach. It seems they just can’t accept it. Many of them are making claims such as:
-This is the proof that Thailand should not be a democracy, because the majority of the people in this country are so uneducated, and any choice they made are uneducated, and it is bad for Thailand in a long run.
-I think new rules should be implemented, that the “richer” one is, the more vote they should have. Peasants in the rural area should have one vote, but as I am way richer than them, my vote should be deemed as two votes.
-This is bad. Because 60% of Thai population are thieves, thus they chose ‘thieves’ to be the leader.
-I want the army to stage a coup. I cannot accept our country to be ruled by this family.
-These uneducated peasants have no access to media that we have (I am assuming they are talking about ASTV, Manager etc which are one-sided hatred propaganda type of media, which would be banned in the west). So they have no idea that they got it all wrong to entrust a country with that family.
etc etc (I am not going to read all of those nonsense. Just reading this much is more than enough).
It is ironic really that these so called ‘educated’ people still don’t understand the basic concept of democracy. For them democracy only applies when they themselves win, and should they lose, they think democracy should not apply.
If all those fancy educations they have had cannot even make them understand democracy, then they should really start to really think about what they have learned during the period of their ‘education’. Did they learn to think by themselves, or they have learned to believe everything they have been taught without asking questions? If it is not the first and it is the latter, then all the time they have spent during their education is probably a waste. Because they end up becoming just another victim of state indoctrination, and they are the reason why the conflict in Thailand never resolves.
Regional voting
# Sceptic
Agree totally. Pundit’s analysis is interesting, but does not confront the issue about the design of the ballot papers, which was different from previous polls, different between the constituency and party-list, and hence very confusing — creating a “hanging chad” opportunity.
I’d love to investigate the distribution, but where is the data? I can’t find it. If anyone else can point to a source, I’ll work on it.
#8 Marc
Agree again. Which is exactly why I commented about the margins in the short (2 a.m., heavily jet-lagged) text on the post It’s striking how large are the majorities for both parties in their heartlands (S for DP, Upper N and NE for PT), and how tight are many of the contests elsewhere.
How to map this? Maybe a map where the shading shows the percentage gap between the first and second candidate. Anyone else got suggestions? Marc?
Electoral fraud in Malaysia – BERSIH calls for reforms
How could BN… or I should mention UMNO (as other components parties are dead wood and puppets) allow this Berseh reforms to take place?
UMNO will be finishes once and for all….
What it means? Rakyat shall power through regardless of some obstructions.
Thanks to the Mamakthir, the Ruler want to help but he may be constrained by new constitutions.
Regardless, EC head must roll and reform must take place! Or else, it’s waste of Rakyat’s time to vote as UMNO will simply add votes or change the ballot boxes to neutralise Rakyat’s choice.
UMNO probably know that UMNO has been sentenced to DEATH penalty by Rakyat.
Party for Pheua Thai
Not even a day in the office, and already a lot of the opposition is setting deadlines for her to keep promise. 9 months, they said. While the same ones won’t even asked Abhisit when he failed abysmally to deliver any of his.
C. Yossarian #4,
Talking about Suthep’s lovable Black shirts, are we? 400-500 ghosts that seems to disappeared into the clouds under the nose of fully armed 30,000 troops with APCs & Helicopters? (I know their competence is in question, with GT200 and all)
I guess you must have some new evidence to share with us? DSI seem to take their time in finding out anything. I was sure we won’t find out soon who is behind this. But seeing that you’re so sure..