I remember that you said at ‘Thailand at the limit’ what Thailand needs is not so much more efforts at ‘national unity’ but institutions that are properly geared to deal with difference. Maybe this is more an encouraging sign recognising the legitimacy of the people’s mandate.
@RalphKramden #17: I am saying there is a difference between procedural democracy and substantive democracy. Yes, the result was an example of procedural democracy, but Thaksin (when he was PM) was known more for lining his own pocket than addressing social divisions on anything more than a basis designed to secure votes. I am no supporter of the ‘anti-Thaksin’ lot either.
Can I add my congratulations to Tony’s on the fact that “you” did okay in the election. I hadn’t noticed the NM Party campaigning, but I always accept that Tony is dealing with facts only, so well done guys!
The ‘people have spoken’ but the land remains divided. Check out the map of seat distributions. The problems have not gone away.
@Robert: It is amazing to me that people decry the Abhisit government crackdown, while being somehow oblivious to the Thaksin government massacres of muslims at Tak Bai, Krue Se, and the extra judicial killings during the “war on drugs”. Not worth mentioning?
You’re quite right. He could have been talking about Somchai Wongsawat in 2008. Or Suchina Kraprayun in 1992. Or Seni Pramoj in 1976. Or Thanom Kittikajorn in 1973.
pff123. That doesn’t actually follow. With exit polls, as opposed to opinion polls, the question of sample size doesn’t really come into it, and the under-representation of the smallest parties was statistically pretty insignificant. The difference, 48 seats, is mostly accounted for by the under-representation in the exit polls of “Dems” and the two middling parties, Chartthai Pattana and Bhumjai Thai, particularly the latter. Could be that BJP voters were simply too shy to admit how they had voted!
I am still inclined to conjecture that the high number of spoilt ballots could have been the biggest factor. After all, with the option to vote “No” there was little reason for anyone to spoil their vote deliberately.
Not that I have intel on the backgroud, the constitutional court ruling of removing PM Samak Sundaravej for conflict of interest over hosting a cooking show while in office really says it all.
No doubt he gave his competition an excellent opportunity while attending the UN meeting, first thing Thaksin should do is to pay his taxes, present his regrets and ask forgiveness for his mistake to the thai people.
I believe there is a general that should be fired and a constitutional court that should be dissolved as truly illegitimate….
Yea the Reds & Puea Thai won – I mean Thaksin won…
The people spoke yesterday and they should leave it now, let the PT party run the country for a bit. Let the poor realise they will still be poor and the price of living will still go up. Let them watch as their great leader steals more from the country and their social position does not change, because in all truthfulness, this is politics in Thailand and THAT is a dirty game, not for the people, but for power for people like Thaksin…good luck Thailand, it really looks like a stable country now after it has charged a man with corruption against the state and then allowed his sister to become PM…Thailands Imelda Marcos…
What YL and PTP needs now is “TIME” to set the record straight, for 5, 6 years the country legal system, law, authorities’s been manipulated to a intolerant level and it will take a lot of time to get it back on track, with the mass the Dem’s and the Junta created….People have to be patient to let YL and PTP do their work. Don’t expect split second results as they still have to go through a lot of obstacles in from of them and it ain’t going to be easy…..
Wining the election is just the first step to a rocky road up ahead, “We” the people must walk with them hand in hand. Everyone needs a lift in this world especially the ones we’ve chosen to lead…..
Not to point out the obvious- but I think you have to say that the discrepancy between final tally and exit polls was primarily due to sample size. Each and every one of the smaller parties was under represented in the exit polls- sometimes drastically so. While there may have been other errors in play, this seems to be the most clear difference and can easily be explained by polling occurring outside of the specific constituencies where smaller parties picked up their seats.
The right result, but neither a huge step forward or backwards for Thailand.
Thanks to the work of good journalists, the last 5 years have been educational. We now know: The 2006 coup was the army’s message to Thaksin that “you can take all the power in Thailand, except ours.” The riots in 2010 were largely Thaksin’s message to the army that “you can thwart every attempt at equality in Thailand except elections.”
Now that both parties have shown their cahones and conditions, a compromise is possible. Thaksin makes a deal with the Queen’s army and everyone gets to emerge as winners in a system that remains largely bereft of transparency and accountability.
More money will get spent upcountry on development, which is good and long overdue. Other than that…
Succession is the earthquake. The election was just about earthquake-proofing the buildings. The story continues and let’s all pay attention to the small details.
When the celebrations are over and Yingluck takes office I believe there are 2 political priorities for the PT to sort out.
1. An international enquiry should be set up to investigate all aspects of events leading upto and including the demonstrations of 2010 and its aftermath. This enquiry should be headed by an international judge who is well respected. This enquiry should be open and transparent. It should have the power to question all people it deems neccessary to get to the truth and that must include the army. a final report must be made public. This is the only way that reconciliation can happen.
2. A new constitution should be drawn up that must include freedom of the press, internet and free speech and expression. 112 should be totally scrapped as it stops basic freedoms. The army has to be placed under civillian elected govts and serving officers banned from political activities as well as holding/running any private businesses.
Never again should this country be afraid of the army controlling the affairs of your country in any shape or form.
Two particular anomalies strike me in the results.
There were apparently 1,750,000 spoilt ballot papers (This doesn’t include the “No” voters) Out of some 31 million voters that is a very high percentage indeed. I wonder if any analysis exists of how these spoilt ballots were spread regionally or even on a constituency basis. Even more interesting would be a breakdown of what exactly constituted the “spoiling”. Bearing in mind the concerns about the way that the Pheua Thai logo was displayed, it would be interesting to know just how many ballots were spoilt because the voter had marked the wrong box. The significant difference between the exit polls and the actual result could be related to this if, for instance, people told pollsters that they had voted one way or another when in fact their vote was actually discounted.
The other glaring anomaly is the result in Bangkok. Whereas in all the other regions the actual count bears a reasonable resemblance to the exit poll, In Bangkok it was totally reversed; 28:5 in favour of Pheua Thai turns out to be 23:10 in favour of the “Dems”. That is a remarkable statistic.
[…] is because while imposter academics like Dr. Andrew Walker of Australia’s National University throw up unrelated correlations between a growing number of Internet connections in Thailand and PTP’s rising popularity, […]
You are to be congratulated because while your colleagues (including Prayuth who refuses to speak for 2 weeks) are now in deep mourning period, you keep on shouting alone near the lost battle-field last night.
“Whatever the locally-specific reasons for the Pheua Thai victory, at a national level it is an impressive one.”
Ok let’s accept the majority’s choice but let’s not forget those locally-specific reasons for Yingluck’s victory also.
Thailand’s north and northeast where Pheu Thai gained the most votes are home to the obvious vote-buying scheme, and the country’s rural populations who are promised some goodies (read: easy money) from Pheu Thai’s populists (as in 2001’s One Million Baht One Village Fund Program).
Seeing that Thaksin has referred to his sister as “my clone”, I doubt if the new government will be less corrupted and authoritarian as his brother’s has proven to be. As a resident of Chiang Mai, hometown of both the new and ex PM, I’m distressed by what kind of developments the government will bring to the province. Back when Thaksin was in power, he has been known to initiate many mindless (read: tasteless) mega tourism projects that did more to attract tourists than improve the residents’ quality of life. A Disneyland-like amusement park on part of Suthep mountain, a cable car project on ecologically-sensitive land of Chiang Dao mountain, you name it. Thankfully all these appear to be forgotten
Considering the peculiar mindset and insensitive development policies Thai Rak Thai, now Pheu Thai party, is prone to, I am not optimistic.
The original Franco-Siamese agreement made the high water mark on the Siamese bank the national boundary, rather than the deep water channel as was the usual international practice. This gave the French total control of the waterway and sovereignty over the riverine islands, in addition to the bridgehead provinces of Sayaboury and Champassak. Following their victory in the War to Recover the Lost Territories, the deep water channel became the national boundary, and remains so to this day, despite the forced return of the Monthon Burapha (Eastern Territories) in Laos and Cambodia in 1946.
The Thai government distillery commemorated the designation of the deep water channel as the Mekong River border by releasing a new brand of rice whiskey, called Mekong. A fine drop it was (and is), and drinking it remains a patriotic act, at least for those with a little knowledge of Thai history. Like eating Beef Wellington, drinking Mekong whiskey is like raising two fingers at the French.
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National unity?
I remember that you said at ‘Thailand at the limit’ what Thailand needs is not so much more efforts at ‘national unity’ but institutions that are properly geared to deal with difference. Maybe this is more an encouraging sign recognising the legitimacy of the people’s mandate.
Regional voting
Wern – 5
A lot of the spoilt papers were from those who voted no. 5 for both constituent and party-list. Chuvit’s party only had party-list candidates.
Of course that makes a lot of sense. Thanks Wern.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
@RalphKramden #17: I am saying there is a difference between procedural democracy and substantive democracy. Yes, the result was an example of procedural democracy, but Thaksin (when he was PM) was known more for lining his own pocket than addressing social divisions on anything more than a basis designed to secure votes. I am no supporter of the ‘anti-Thaksin’ lot either.
Regional voting
@Sceptic
A lot of the spoilt papers were from those who voted no. 5 for both constituent and party-list. Chuvit’s party only had party-list candidates.
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
Can I add my congratulations to Tony’s on the fact that “you” did okay in the election. I hadn’t noticed the NM Party campaigning, but I always accept that Tony is dealing with facts only, so well done guys!
And I love his math. Just classic.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
The ‘people have spoken’ but the land remains divided. Check out the map of seat distributions. The problems have not gone away.
@Robert: It is amazing to me that people decry the Abhisit government crackdown, while being somehow oblivious to the Thaksin government massacres of muslims at Tak Bai, Krue Se, and the extra judicial killings during the “war on drugs”. Not worth mentioning?
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
Les Abbey # 22
You’re quite right. He could have been talking about Somchai Wongsawat in 2008. Or Suchina Kraprayun in 1992. Or Seni Pramoj in 1976. Or Thanom Kittikajorn in 1973.
Regional voting
pff123. That doesn’t actually follow. With exit polls, as opposed to opinion polls, the question of sample size doesn’t really come into it, and the under-representation of the smallest parties was statistically pretty insignificant. The difference, 48 seats, is mostly accounted for by the under-representation in the exit polls of “Dems” and the two middling parties, Chartthai Pattana and Bhumjai Thai, particularly the latter. Could be that BJP voters were simply too shy to admit how they had voted!
I am still inclined to conjecture that the high number of spoilt ballots could have been the biggest factor. After all, with the option to vote “No” there was little reason for anyone to spoil their vote deliberately.
Thailand’s electoral rules
Not that I have intel on the backgroud, the constitutional court ruling of removing PM Samak Sundaravej for conflict of interest over hosting a cooking show while in office really says it all.
No doubt he gave his competition an excellent opportunity while attending the UN meeting, first thing Thaksin should do is to pay his taxes, present his regrets and ask forgiveness for his mistake to the thai people.
I believe there is a general that should be fired and a constitutional court that should be dissolved as truly illegitimate….
gorwell
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
Yea the Reds & Puea Thai won – I mean Thaksin won…
The people spoke yesterday and they should leave it now, let the PT party run the country for a bit. Let the poor realise they will still be poor and the price of living will still go up. Let them watch as their great leader steals more from the country and their social position does not change, because in all truthfulness, this is politics in Thailand and THAT is a dirty game, not for the people, but for power for people like Thaksin…good luck Thailand, it really looks like a stable country now after it has charged a man with corruption against the state and then allowed his sister to become PM…Thailands Imelda Marcos…
Dont forget the people voted for Hitler too…
Party for Pheua Thai
What YL and PTP needs now is “TIME” to set the record straight, for 5, 6 years the country legal system, law, authorities’s been manipulated to a intolerant level and it will take a lot of time to get it back on track, with the mass the Dem’s and the Junta created….People have to be patient to let YL and PTP do their work. Don’t expect split second results as they still have to go through a lot of obstacles in from of them and it ain’t going to be easy…..
Wining the election is just the first step to a rocky road up ahead, “We” the people must walk with them hand in hand. Everyone needs a lift in this world especially the ones we’ve chosen to lead…..
Regional voting
Not to point out the obvious- but I think you have to say that the discrepancy between final tally and exit polls was primarily due to sample size. Each and every one of the smaller parties was under represented in the exit polls- sometimes drastically so. While there may have been other errors in play, this seems to be the most clear difference and can easily be explained by polling occurring outside of the specific constituencies where smaller parties picked up their seats.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
The right result, but neither a huge step forward or backwards for Thailand.
Thanks to the work of good journalists, the last 5 years have been educational. We now know: The 2006 coup was the army’s message to Thaksin that “you can take all the power in Thailand, except ours.” The riots in 2010 were largely Thaksin’s message to the army that “you can thwart every attempt at equality in Thailand except elections.”
Now that both parties have shown their cahones and conditions, a compromise is possible. Thaksin makes a deal with the Queen’s army and everyone gets to emerge as winners in a system that remains largely bereft of transparency and accountability.
More money will get spent upcountry on development, which is good and long overdue. Other than that…
Succession is the earthquake. The election was just about earthquake-proofing the buildings. The story continues and let’s all pay attention to the small details.
Party for Pheua Thai
When the celebrations are over and Yingluck takes office I believe there are 2 political priorities for the PT to sort out.
1. An international enquiry should be set up to investigate all aspects of events leading upto and including the demonstrations of 2010 and its aftermath. This enquiry should be headed by an international judge who is well respected. This enquiry should be open and transparent. It should have the power to question all people it deems neccessary to get to the truth and that must include the army. a final report must be made public. This is the only way that reconciliation can happen.
2. A new constitution should be drawn up that must include freedom of the press, internet and free speech and expression. 112 should be totally scrapped as it stops basic freedoms. The army has to be placed under civillian elected govts and serving officers banned from political activities as well as holding/running any private businesses.
Never again should this country be afraid of the army controlling the affairs of your country in any shape or form.
Regional voting
Two particular anomalies strike me in the results.
There were apparently 1,750,000 spoilt ballot papers (This doesn’t include the “No” voters) Out of some 31 million voters that is a very high percentage indeed. I wonder if any analysis exists of how these spoilt ballots were spread regionally or even on a constituency basis. Even more interesting would be a breakdown of what exactly constituted the “spoiling”. Bearing in mind the concerns about the way that the Pheua Thai logo was displayed, it would be interesting to know just how many ballots were spoilt because the voter had marked the wrong box. The significant difference between the exit polls and the actual result could be related to this if, for instance, people told pollsters that they had voted one way or another when in fact their vote was actually discounted.
The other glaring anomaly is the result in Bangkok. Whereas in all the other regions the actual count bears a reasonable resemblance to the exit poll, In Bangkok it was totally reversed; 28:5 in favour of Pheua Thai turns out to be 23:10 in favour of the “Dems”. That is a remarkable statistic.
Regional voting
[…] I downloaded this map from the New Mandala site: […]
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
[…] is because while imposter academics like Dr. Andrew Walker of Australia’s National University throw up unrelated correlations between a growing number of Internet connections in Thailand and PTP’s rising popularity, […]
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
LesAbbey — # 22
You are to be congratulated because while your colleagues (including Prayuth who refuses to speak for 2 weeks) are now in deep mourning period, you keep on shouting alone near the lost battle-field last night.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
“Whatever the locally-specific reasons for the Pheua Thai victory, at a national level it is an impressive one.”
Ok let’s accept the majority’s choice but let’s not forget those locally-specific reasons for Yingluck’s victory also.
Thailand’s north and northeast where Pheu Thai gained the most votes are home to the obvious vote-buying scheme, and the country’s rural populations who are promised some goodies (read: easy money) from Pheu Thai’s populists (as in 2001’s One Million Baht One Village Fund Program).
Seeing that Thaksin has referred to his sister as “my clone”, I doubt if the new government will be less corrupted and authoritarian as his brother’s has proven to be. As a resident of Chiang Mai, hometown of both the new and ex PM, I’m distressed by what kind of developments the government will bring to the province. Back when Thaksin was in power, he has been known to initiate many mindless (read: tasteless) mega tourism projects that did more to attract tourists than improve the residents’ quality of life. A Disneyland-like amusement park on part of Suthep mountain, a cable car project on ecologically-sensitive land of Chiang Dao mountain, you name it. Thankfully all these appear to be forgotten
Considering the peculiar mindset and insensitive development policies Thai Rak Thai, now Pheu Thai party, is prone to, I am not optimistic.
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
Angelo Michel # 34
The original Franco-Siamese agreement made the high water mark on the Siamese bank the national boundary, rather than the deep water channel as was the usual international practice. This gave the French total control of the waterway and sovereignty over the riverine islands, in addition to the bridgehead provinces of Sayaboury and Champassak. Following their victory in the War to Recover the Lost Territories, the deep water channel became the national boundary, and remains so to this day, despite the forced return of the Monthon Burapha (Eastern Territories) in Laos and Cambodia in 1946.
The Thai government distillery commemorated the designation of the deep water channel as the Mekong River border by releasing a new brand of rice whiskey, called Mekong. A fine drop it was (and is), and drinking it remains a patriotic act, at least for those with a little knowledge of Thai history. Like eating Beef Wellington, drinking Mekong whiskey is like raising two fingers at the French.