My story is, indeed, hopelessly long. And it has dismayed some academics: I am a journalist and a storyteller, not a professor. All I can say is that in the past 3 months as I wondered how to report this material, my instinct was that it needed to be done compellingly, exhaustively, and unfolding its revelations slowly rather than making immediate headlines of them all. Many of you may disagree, and if so, you can now view the raw cables to provide your own interpretation. Best wishes.
Very interesting. Andrew Marshall must be writing a book if this is only part one of four. I have no problem with much of it being common knowledge although some of it to me was still new. So:
Some underwhelmed critics of the leaking of Cablegate documents have dismissed them as containing few genuine revelations – in general, they have largely tended to confirm what everybody suspected all along. And this is to some extent true of the cables on Thailand. There are no bombshells that will stun Thais or foreign experts on Thailand who are already aware – at least privately – of the story that the cables tell.
And I will agree with:
Hans Christian Andersen made the same point in his parable The Emperor’s New Clothes. Even if most people privately suspect the truth, putting it in the public domain makes it impossible to sustain official narratives that depend on a refusal to acknowledge the reality.
Don’t we all at times feel like the little boy crying out that the Emporor is naked?
I will hope as it continues that people will begin to realize that what is being argued about is the choice of lesser evils. Anyway, what I do have trouble with is Not the Nation’s humour. I always struggle with it even though being a child of sixties London I thought I my mind was quite open. Please can someone tell me whether they are attacking Marshall or his detractors. I admit I have no idea.
Ralph reminded me that one of the sources for the raw cables is available here. There are efforts to disseminate this information far-and-wide, and to avoid the kind of control of online material that has become a preoccupation of Thai authorities. This unfolding #thaistory episode will, I’d imagine, test those resources in new and unpredictable ways.
Two questions to ponder: When will the Thai media report on this breaking story? To what extent will they continue to self-censor?
I haven’t got to Andrew M’s stuff yet, but for the past 24 hours have been on the receiving end of many, many of the leaked cables. Much of interest and much that suggest embassy’s are also prone to reading the Nation and Bkk Post as well as listening to the rumor mills and sending them back to DC. Great reading.
Thanks for the article, Pei. One of the more searing memories I have was when I was in Macao (still under Portuguese rule) and two small boats with about a dozen bedraggled men, women and children from Vietnam were trying to land. But the local police arrived, jumped in their own boats, and pushed them back out to sea.
laoguy @ 63:
I think your view of the issue(s) is far too limited. While the number of people who love the king may be much lower than is often suggested, I think the PT supporters see it as a campaign against the establishment without necessarily identifying the king as being a part of that establishment – although obviously he is.
If PT are successful then presumably the numbers of people identifying the royal family as part of the establishment will increase over future years and popularity will wane.
I just do not think we are at that state yet.
I reckon it won’t be the same as Arab Spring starting with the diversity and the number of domestic and foreign players involved this time round.
And I’m afraid once all out violence erupts it will be unbelievable given the pent up resentment and the historic debts notched up over such a long period of time. They’ve let a God almighty storm brewing as meaningful evolutionary change never saw the light of day.
Like any grid connected project of this size in the world, Thakho hydropower project needs a high voltage transmission line. There are 2 options for Thakho project: connection to Ban Hat substation with a new 115 kV line of 20 km or direct connection to the future 230 kV line from Ban Hat to Stung Treng (Cambodia) to be financed by the World Bank.
Thakho’s project financial viability is much more secured that Don Sahong’s one, and the cost of power generation is cheaper for Thakho than Don Sahong.
This election is a referendum on the invisible hand.
A few days ago Thitinan had an article in the Bangkok Post where he observed that none of the parties were running with the sufficiency economy as party policy. http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/242799/election-campaigns-point-to-a-different-thailand
How could this policy have been given the boot in the dash for the winning post. Do all parties consider it a vote loser? It was Democrat policy in only December 2008. Are the Democrats just ungrateful ingrates? Was the economic theory just an example of the king’s wacky humour? Perhaps an April fools joke?
I would be surprised if any Thais doubted that the royal family fully supports the Democrat party. I would be just as surprised if any Thai didn’t consider that the royal family sees Thaksin as a mortal enemy.
Now, many pundits on New Mandala have commented how cheap and tacky the Democrat campaign appears as opposed to the polished professionalism of Pheua Thai. Are the Democrats starved for funds or maybe it’s a phor phiang political campaign. It seems the invisible hand just can’t get the hang of modern democracy.
I guess one just gets used to using the army to supply the desired political outcome, it’s probably a hard habit to break. And when you think of the economics, hey, the taxpayers get to pay for their own subjugation. So if the voters didn’t get the hint when the queen’s favorite military stooge was rolled out to tell them to vote for the right party, and we know which one that is don’t we? The voters get to have their memories jogged with the spectacle of the king admonishing the judges one more time to do the right thing. What could he possibly mean and what is it with these Thai judges anyway, are their ethics so questionable?
The royal family have maneuvered themselves into a situation where this election is about them or Thaksin. The Democrats or Pheua Thai are just the chips in play.
All Thais love the king, or so the story goes. Some braver souls have suggested it’s perhaps only 80 to 95 percent. I think this election will project a truer reflection of that disputed number.
Just to recap, the title of this thread is Thailand’s Invisible Hand.
The big question for the Invisible Hand is should they sink PTP before or after the election. If they let the election go ahead there is a slim chance PTP will not win, in which case there will be no problem. If they get rid of them before the election there is bound to be trouble, although they have several groups working to find a way to do this. If they let the election go ahead and PTP win big it will be even worse when they find a way to give them a red card. Oh dear, what to do, what to do and time is running out.
If PTP win and are allowed to form the government I will gladly eat my words and my hat.
PS. some very interesting comments here as usual. I learn a lot.
The Battle of Burma has just begun.
Talk is cheap, Watch what we do.
Than Shwe drove Khin Nyunt’s 7 Step Road-Map into a ditch.
It was anti-Chinese riots that precipitated the toppling of Suharto in Indonesia. Than Shwe is on the same Road-Map.
US President Harry S. Truman used to have a sign on his desk with the inscription “The buck stops here”. It would seem that Thai politicians (including those in uniform) have one inscribed “The envelope of baht stops here, but the buck stops somewhere else”.
Did you support the PPP’s self serving effort to quickly amend the constitution which only became an issue for them when Yongyuth got the red card?
==========
I cast my vote SPECIFICALLY for the PPP precisely because of PPP’s election promise to get rid of the Military’s Constitution – that mean that the PPP has MY vote to amend the constitution.
So YES. I repeat, YES. I voted for PPP because they said they will do so. Knowing what Thai politicians are like, it was an election promise that even I was surprised THEY KEPT!
I prefer to get the ’97 one back – flawed as it may be – to the current ridiculous one drafted by the army literally granting the army the right to coup any time.
Who cares Yongyuth got the red card? Everyone buys votes in Thailand. You’d have to disqualify all 500 of them. Then who’d be there to do what I the voter wanted them to do? I want that crappy constitution OUT.
Had the PPP not attempted to amend the constitution, they would have lost my vote for the NEXT election. I am obviously still waiting for my ‘next’ election… and I will NOT vote for DP on election day.
LesAbbey @ 52: Yes, I will. Not my “not yet” words, which will still be true even if there’s an election. But I predicted last year there would be no election, and I will eat those words if there’s an election on July 3 and votes are tallied and reported. I’m not retracting them, though.
You see the problem is that PPP got the mandate from the people, they got every right to change the constitution, the PPP represent the majority. The PAD protest doesn’t hold any merit because they were not representing the majority of the people. Furthermore, they even came up with the Praviharn temple, which was pretty decided 60 years ago. Do you really think that’s a valid reason to even raise the issue?
Btw, one more point I wanted to address
Also left out is that Yongyuth was indeed caught red-handed buying votes.
If you really follow what was going on in detail you should know that the evidence was very weak. The evidence that they show was a video from CCTV taken from SC Park Hotel, the video shows this group of Pu Yai Barn and Kum nan from Chieng Mai and surrounding area came to see Yongyuth. What happened was this one guy said he was paid by Yongyuth a staggering amount of 50,000 baht, it was meant to be for transportation cost and other fees. However, this particular guy testify that it was for vote buying while the rest of the people that were in the video didn’t indicated such a purpose of the money. Note that no money was exchange in the video, it was just a group of people walking around in SC Park.
So what happened? the court take that guy testimony by heart and assumed that the guy was telling the truth, despite the people that were with him said the contrary.
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Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
My story is, indeed, hopelessly long. And it has dismayed some academics: I am a journalist and a storyteller, not a professor. All I can say is that in the past 3 months as I wondered how to report this material, my instinct was that it needed to be done compellingly, exhaustively, and unfolding its revelations slowly rather than making immediate headlines of them all. Many of you may disagree, and if so, you can now view the raw cables to provide your own interpretation. Best wishes.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Very interesting. Andrew Marshall must be writing a book if this is only part one of four. I have no problem with much of it being common knowledge although some of it to me was still new. So:
Some underwhelmed critics of the leaking of Cablegate documents have dismissed them as containing few genuine revelations – in general, they have largely tended to confirm what everybody suspected all along. And this is to some extent true of the cables on Thailand. There are no bombshells that will stun Thais or foreign experts on Thailand who are already aware – at least privately – of the story that the cables tell.
And I will agree with:
Hans Christian Andersen made the same point in his parable The Emperor’s New Clothes. Even if most people privately suspect the truth, putting it in the public domain makes it impossible to sustain official narratives that depend on a refusal to acknowledge the reality.
Don’t we all at times feel like the little boy crying out that the Emporor is naked?
I will hope as it continues that people will begin to realize that what is being argued about is the choice of lesser evils. Anyway, what I do have trouble with is Not the Nation’s humour. I always struggle with it even though being a child of sixties London I thought I my mind was quite open. Please can someone tell me whether they are attacking Marshall or his detractors. I admit I have no idea.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
And Richard Lloyd Parry from The Times has a good tweet about the length of Marshall’s work:
Readers intrigued by the range of responses that #thaistory is generating will also want to see The Nation editor Thanong Khantong’s twitter feed.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Front page of the Times of London, I see.
So much for low-profile.
Big day for Thailand. Wikileaks for breakfast, Abhisit’s revelations at Rajprasong for lunch. Dinner will be a stiff drink.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Ralph reminded me that one of the sources for the raw cables is available here. There are efforts to disseminate this information far-and-wide, and to avoid the kind of control of online material that has become a preoccupation of Thai authorities. This unfolding #thaistory episode will, I’d imagine, test those resources in new and unpredictable ways.
Two questions to ponder: When will the Thai media report on this breaking story? To what extent will they continue to self-censor?
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
I haven’t got to Andrew M’s stuff yet, but for the past 24 hours have been on the receiving end of many, many of the leaked cables. Much of interest and much that suggest embassy’s are also prone to reading the Nation and Bkk Post as well as listening to the rumor mills and sending them back to DC. Great reading.
Tourist among Rohingya vagabonds
Thanks for the article, Pei. One of the more searing memories I have was when I was in Macao (still under Portuguese rule) and two small boats with about a dozen bedraggled men, women and children from Vietnam were trying to land. But the local police arrived, jumped in their own boats, and pushed them back out to sea.
Thailand’s invisible hand
laoguy @ 63:
I think your view of the issue(s) is far too limited. While the number of people who love the king may be much lower than is often suggested, I think the PT supporters see it as a campaign against the establishment without necessarily identifying the king as being a part of that establishment – although obviously he is.
If PT are successful then presumably the numbers of people identifying the royal family as part of the establishment will increase over future years and popularity will wane.
I just do not think we are at that state yet.
Myitkyina attacked, war continues
Nich,
What you said in conclusion may well prove prescient as the events unfold during the rest of 2011.
Note ASSK’s interesting departure from her stance on non-violence as reported here:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/Nobel-peace-laureate-Suu-Kyi-ready-to-shun-non-violence/articleshow/8944066.cms
I reckon it won’t be the same as Arab Spring starting with the diversity and the number of domestic and foreign players involved this time round.
And I’m afraid once all out violence erupts it will be unbelievable given the pent up resentment and the historic debts notched up over such a long period of time. They’ve let a God almighty storm brewing as meaningful evolutionary change never saw the light of day.
Don Sahong Dam in southern Laos
Like any grid connected project of this size in the world, Thakho hydropower project needs a high voltage transmission line. There are 2 options for Thakho project: connection to Ban Hat substation with a new 115 kV line of 20 km or direct connection to the future 230 kV line from Ban Hat to Stung Treng (Cambodia) to be financed by the World Bank.
Thakho’s project financial viability is much more secured that Don Sahong’s one, and the cost of power generation is cheaper for Thakho than Don Sahong.
Thailand’s invisible hand
This election is a referendum on the invisible hand.
A few days ago Thitinan had an article in the Bangkok Post where he observed that none of the parties were running with the sufficiency economy as party policy.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/242799/election-campaigns-point-to-a-different-thailand
How could this policy have been given the boot in the dash for the winning post. Do all parties consider it a vote loser? It was Democrat policy in only December 2008. Are the Democrats just ungrateful ingrates? Was the economic theory just an example of the king’s wacky humour? Perhaps an April fools joke?
I would be surprised if any Thais doubted that the royal family fully supports the Democrat party. I would be just as surprised if any Thai didn’t consider that the royal family sees Thaksin as a mortal enemy.
Now, many pundits on New Mandala have commented how cheap and tacky the Democrat campaign appears as opposed to the polished professionalism of Pheua Thai. Are the Democrats starved for funds or maybe it’s a phor phiang political campaign. It seems the invisible hand just can’t get the hang of modern democracy.
I guess one just gets used to using the army to supply the desired political outcome, it’s probably a hard habit to break. And when you think of the economics, hey, the taxpayers get to pay for their own subjugation. So if the voters didn’t get the hint when the queen’s favorite military stooge was rolled out to tell them to vote for the right party, and we know which one that is don’t we? The voters get to have their memories jogged with the spectacle of the king admonishing the judges one more time to do the right thing. What could he possibly mean and what is it with these Thai judges anyway, are their ethics so questionable?
The royal family have maneuvered themselves into a situation where this election is about them or Thaksin. The Democrats or Pheua Thai are just the chips in play.
All Thais love the king, or so the story goes. Some braver souls have suggested it’s perhaps only 80 to 95 percent. I think this election will project a truer reflection of that disputed number.
Thailand’s invisible hand
Just to recap, the title of this thread is Thailand’s Invisible Hand.
The big question for the Invisible Hand is should they sink PTP before or after the election. If they let the election go ahead there is a slim chance PTP will not win, in which case there will be no problem. If they get rid of them before the election there is bound to be trouble, although they have several groups working to find a way to do this. If they let the election go ahead and PTP win big it will be even worse when they find a way to give them a red card. Oh dear, what to do, what to do and time is running out.
If PTP win and are allowed to form the government I will gladly eat my words and my hat.
PS. some very interesting comments here as usual. I learn a lot.
Myitkyina attacked, war continues
The Battle of Burma has just begun.
Talk is cheap, Watch what we do.
Than Shwe drove Khin Nyunt’s 7 Step Road-Map into a ditch.
It was anti-Chinese riots that precipitated the toppling of Suharto in Indonesia. Than Shwe is on the same Road-Map.
Thailand’s ballots and bullets
US President Harry S. Truman used to have a sign on his desk with the inscription “The buck stops here”. It would seem that Thai politicians (including those in uniform) have one inscribed “The envelope of baht stops here, but the buck stops somewhere else”.
Don Sahong Dam in southern Laos
Hummm what about Thakho’s project financial viability without a high voltage transmission line?
Thailand’s invisible hand
#56
Did you support the PPP’s self serving effort to quickly amend the constitution which only became an issue for them when Yongyuth got the red card?
==========
I cast my vote SPECIFICALLY for the PPP precisely because of PPP’s election promise to get rid of the Military’s Constitution – that mean that the PPP has MY vote to amend the constitution.
So YES. I repeat, YES. I voted for PPP because they said they will do so. Knowing what Thai politicians are like, it was an election promise that even I was surprised THEY KEPT!
I prefer to get the ’97 one back – flawed as it may be – to the current ridiculous one drafted by the army literally granting the army the right to coup any time.
Who cares Yongyuth got the red card? Everyone buys votes in Thailand. You’d have to disqualify all 500 of them. Then who’d be there to do what I the voter wanted them to do? I want that crappy constitution OUT.
Had the PPP not attempted to amend the constitution, they would have lost my vote for the NEXT election. I am obviously still waiting for my ‘next’ election… and I will NOT vote for DP on election day.
Don Sahong Dam in southern Laos
Paris Hilton isn’t the sharpest cookie in the jar is she so lets get add some clarity before presenting the goodies.
Why would you converse with an algorithm?
Who is us?
How did you become elected to represent them?
Thailand’s invisible hand
LesAbbey @ 52: Yes, I will. Not my “not yet” words, which will still be true even if there’s an election. But I predicted last year there would be no election, and I will eat those words if there’s an election on July 3 and votes are tallied and reported. I’m not retracting them, though.
Ear decoration or defloration?
unfortunately gender of remains not known, although most skeletal remains were of adults.
Thailand’s invisible hand
John Smith – 56
You see the problem is that PPP got the mandate from the people, they got every right to change the constitution, the PPP represent the majority. The PAD protest doesn’t hold any merit because they were not representing the majority of the people. Furthermore, they even came up with the Praviharn temple, which was pretty decided 60 years ago. Do you really think that’s a valid reason to even raise the issue?
Btw, one more point I wanted to address
Also left out is that Yongyuth was indeed caught red-handed buying votes.
If you really follow what was going on in detail you should know that the evidence was very weak. The evidence that they show was a video from CCTV taken from SC Park Hotel, the video shows this group of Pu Yai Barn and Kum nan from Chieng Mai and surrounding area came to see Yongyuth. What happened was this one guy said he was paid by Yongyuth a staggering amount of 50,000 baht, it was meant to be for transportation cost and other fees. However, this particular guy testify that it was for vote buying while the rest of the people that were in the video didn’t indicated such a purpose of the money. Note that no money was exchange in the video, it was just a group of people walking around in SC Park.
So what happened? the court take that guy testimony by heart and assumed that the guy was telling the truth, despite the people that were with him said the contrary.