Empty promises are dejure ad infinitum here in Thailand. I recall a few years ago while TS was still premier the Korat mayor, who had just been married and although he was not home his new bride was, found his bedroom hit with an M79! The new bride escaped injury but was obviously shaken. Thaksin promised arrest within thirty days. It must not be thirty days yet…
Political parties are also promising end of violence, resolution of the southern conflict, gifts to every Thai, riches and end of misery. It’s a shame that the Lord Buddha’s personal experiences and his teachings are being put to such waste by persons devoid of human decency.
What is a bit scary, for those not yet worried, is what appears to be a global shakedown of morality and it being replaced with militancy and selfishness. I see a possible global dark age descending upon us, and it will make life difficult for a long, long time.
This ‘inevitable” situation can be avoided, but it’s gong to take a lot of activism. And interim miserey.
Well, the police stated last night that would make an arrest in two days and linked the shooter in Lopburi with the case you mention. They have also pointed out that the identikit picture for the Lopburi killer matches one of the gunmen on their most wanted list. He is said to be protected by “men in uniform.” So all this should be sorted out in a day or so. Yeah, right….
#55 Andrew Walker The anti-Thaksin yellow shirts took to the streets when the new government was only a few months old, occupying Government House and eventually shutting down Bangkok’s international airport
Andrew, you seemed to have left out what the “new government did that caused the demonstrations. Wouldn’t that have added some needed context to what was going on?
Did you support the PPP’s self serving effort to quickly amend the constitution which only became an issue for them when Yongyuth got the red card?
The real issue and the motivation for the PAD demonstrations and PPP’s effort to amend the constitution always seems to be left out of what is often written about those times. Also left out is that Yongyuth was indeed caught red-handed buying votes.
Your article Andrew Walker underscores exactly the point of my argument that the Red Shirts leaders, and NOT PM Abhisit, was guilty of bad faith during last year’s negotiations. While PM Abhisit was sincere about his November 2010 election offer, Red Shirt leaders already under the influence of violent radicals (the Black Shirts) were compelled to escalate their demands leading to the unnecessary bloodshed and mayhem.
I could argue that the Red Shirts demand for an election was a charade from the very first day of their protest march. The troika Thaksin/Khattiya/Pallop had already the violent Black Shirts group freely mingling with the Red Shirts specifically to foment an urban ‘civil war’. Most of the Red Shirts followers were completely unaware that the end game of the Red Shirts leaders had always been violent provocation (M79 grenade launchers indiscriminate attacks), confrontation . . . then war.
Among the major ethnic groups, Karen is probably the largest, that receive the shortest ends and have the most legitimate gripes against this present Bamar regime.
From the result of the continuing struggle since b/f 1948 one can easily see the examples to be for the smaller groups. These groups have very little choice but to play along, reticent they are not not.
The give and take, with more giving by the minorities than taking b/t the dominant Bamar has been going on.
When the Bamar regime was weaker during the initial sanction periods by the west, the giving and taking was better through the negotiated so called ” treaties” by Khin Nyunt.
That was then, because of the continual useless careless policy/threat of the west induced paranoia, the SLOR transform to SPDC. With the ever protection of China, has built an arm force that not only is intended for the internal put down but also possible external threats.
The fore sight of Than Shwe/SPDC need be noted and respected in order to deal with this dictator.
Unlike west useless careless way, nothing has been left to chance per this present regime.
As of now, an extremely unlikely possibility of a united ethnic forces against this regime i.e a civil war, even with outside interference, the chance of defeating the Bamar dominance is unlikely.
Thanks Vichai. It’s a very good article, so let’s quote a bit more:
Abhisit’s offer of a November election may have seemed reasonable, perhaps even generous to some, but it was essentially meaningless in a country where respect for electoral decisions has evaporated. The red shirts don’t need long memories to recognise the flimsiness of his offer. Just four years ago, in March 2006, following an earlier round of street protests, Thaksin Shinawatra called a snap election. The Democrat Party, led by Abhisit, decided to boycott the election, because they knew that they would lose. In the end Thaksin’s party received about 60 per cent of the votes cast but the result was cancelled by the courts on a dubious technicality.
Another Thaksin victory was likely in a repeat election scheduled for late 2006. That’s why the army staged its coup on 19 September 2006, pushing aside the most electorally popular government Thailand has ever seen. Although Abhisit said that he disapproved of coups, he has been the main political beneficiary of Thaksin’s removal. But he still couldn’t manage to win an election. In the post-coup election of December 2007 the Thaksin-aligned People Power Party won just short of an absolute majority. Many in the Bangkok elite wouldn’t accept that result either. The anti-Thaksin yellow shirts took to the streets when the new government was only a few months old, occupying Government House and eventually shutting down Bangkok’s international airport. This campaign to overthrow the elected government had the backing of Abhisit’s Democrats, and they got their way when the ruling party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court. With some army-led arm-twisting, Abhisit was finally able to stitch together a parliamentary majority.
Given the chain of events that brought Abhisit to power, why would the red shirts place their faith in his offer of an election? Powerful figures within the government are extremely reluctant to subject themselves to electoral judgement, so how could red-shirt leaders persuade the doubters in their midst that the road map could be trusted? With the yellow shirts openly hostile to the deal, how could the red shirts be confident that they wouldn’t seek to disrupt it?
And even if an election went ahead, recent history underlines the likelihood of extra-electoral intervention, either on the streets or in the courts, to overturn the result. Repeatedly vilified as Thaksin’s crowd-for-hire, how could the red shirts be confident that their future votes wouldn’t be dismissed once again as the product of money politics? Could they rely on the palace to add its moral authority to a defence of the electoral process? Of course not.
The red shirts may have made a fatal error in not accepting Abhisit’s 14 November deal. But their decision is just one facet of a much bigger problem. Thailand’s fatal flaw is its loss of faith in the electoral process, which has opened the way for hardliners to pursue violent alternatives.
“There was a fraudulent (November2010 election) offer (from Abhisit).” L. Hoyt C26
If Abhisit’s offer was sincere . . . then the Red Shirts leadership would bear the heaviest guilt for the lives and limbs lost during Year2010 carnage. If Abhisit’s offer was fraudulent . . . then the Abhisit and his party deserved to be condemned with total virulence.
Excerpts:
“On 3 May, Prime Minister Abhisit made a final offer, laying down what he described as a road map for national reconciliation. The centrepiece of the offer was an election on 14 November 2010, more than a year ahead of schedule. For a few days it looked like a peaceful resolution was in the offing. The reds took their time considering Abhisit’s offer, and their delays and qualifications appeared to be motivated not by intransigence but by a desire to step down from a position of strength. Then the deal came badly unstuck, seemingly over the theatrical technicality of precisely how the deputy prime minister (and security coordinator), Suthep Thaugsuban, should be called to account for the deaths of 10 April. The reds wanted him to report to the police; he insisted on reporting to an investigations office that fell under his own jurisdiction. The red-shirt leaders were also concerned about how the charges of terrorism against them would be handled. These very serious offences can be punished by life in prison or the death penalty in Thailand.”
Even Walker and Farrelly believed, from the above article they wrote, that Abhisit was making a sincere offer to avoid escalation of confrontation/bloodshed. Red theatrics and the Red Shirt leadership demanding special “amnesty” for themselves had undone the ‘early steps to reconciliation’ at that time and led to the unnecessary deaths of Reds, soldiers and innocents.
In that case Tarrin why isn’t the election being cancelled. This is the same type of misinformation as last year’s comments of there being no election this year
Is that suppose to be a serious question? Before we can hold an election we have to dissolve the house first, you can’t just dissolve then found out later oh darn we going to lose and then “undissolve” the house.
We have one comment in this thread saying that the offer last year of a November 2010 election was fraudulent and yet last year the argument was that November couldn’t be accepted because it allowed the government to pass the army promotion list first and that Suthep and Abhisit were not prepared to be charged for their roles during the protest up until that point, (or of course charges being dropped against the UDD leaders). It seems that fraud wasn’t the reason the UDD gave last year.
About the removing the general, it’s obviously is not going to be on the table since the very people that you intended to remove is holding the gun in front of you right, just because the argument doesn’t agree with you it doesn’t mean its a fraud.
Until their fall from power in October 1976, Thailand was run by Jorm Phon (Field Marshal) Thanom Kittikachorn and his deputy, Jorm Phon (Field Marshal) Prapat Charusathian.
It was then decided that only the king could hold the rank of jorm phon. The next rank down, phon ek (general), is now the highest in the army, albeit with two grades: phon ek ha dao (five star general) and phon ek si dao (four star general).
On the other hand, there are so many “generals” of various grades in the Thai Army that the rank title in itself doesn’t really mean very much. What matters is the command position. As they say about Supreme Command Headquarters, it isn’t (supreme) and it doesn’t (command). Army Commander is the job they all want.
Re the PTP’s apparent advantage in the election: is there any reason to think that the establishment has already come to some tacit agreement with PTP — or parts of PTP — that Hewison is actually correct even in this case? Meaning, more explicitly, that the queen and prince themselves are comfortable enough with a number of PTP’s key figures to be comfortable with elections?
There’s nothing wrong with that, we have that situation now was because the Dem really thinks that they can win a month ago.
In that case Tarrin why isn’t the election being cancelled. This is the same type of misinformation as last year’s comments of there being no election this year. It does the anti-government argument no favours because it’s so easily disproved, although I suspect sometimes the writers hope that nobody picks them up on obvious factual errors. There are good arguments to be made against the Abhisit government if you wanted, so why make false ones.
We have one comment in this thread saying that the offer last year of a November 2010 election was fraudulent and yet last year the argument was that November couldn’t be accepted because it allowed the government to pass the army promotion list first and that Suthep and Abhisit were not prepared to be charged for their roles during the protest up until that point, (or of course charges being dropped against the UDD leaders). It seems that fraud wasn’t the reason the UDD gave last year.
So did the democrats think they stood a good chance in July? Probably. Would they cancel an election they thought they couldn’t win? Unlikely.
Now I accept if the Democrats use trouble at the Rachaprasong rally to cancel the election I will have to eat my words.
Then again if all the pro red-shirt supporters had to do the same when writing so many misstatements and so much misinformation, they must be, as my nephew tells me, very very fat by now.
Human rights report or what? On the Thai government jailing people for speaking the truth about the Royals’ unwarranted political interference?
Or would you like a report on how much access Thai people have to unbiased information/unbiased, proper analysis from foreign media about their political situation?
If you want reports on both former issues, I guarantee you that the report would suggest that the they are extremely below average. And you don’t need a genius to analyse it. Trust me.
Could you be more specific about the Human Rights Watch report?
I think that Human Rights Watch and their balanced reports have been a huge asset in forcing the discussion to focus on facts and documentable middle ground.
I have no reason to believe what CT has said. But I do think all of these issues do need broad public scrutiny, which requires links or at least an attempt at documenting a point.
It is impossible to know what you mean or what HRW said from your comment.
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Thailand’s ballots and bullets
Empty promises are dejure ad infinitum here in Thailand. I recall a few years ago while TS was still premier the Korat mayor, who had just been married and although he was not home his new bride was, found his bedroom hit with an M79! The new bride escaped injury but was obviously shaken. Thaksin promised arrest within thirty days. It must not be thirty days yet…
Political parties are also promising end of violence, resolution of the southern conflict, gifts to every Thai, riches and end of misery. It’s a shame that the Lord Buddha’s personal experiences and his teachings are being put to such waste by persons devoid of human decency.
What is a bit scary, for those not yet worried, is what appears to be a global shakedown of morality and it being replaced with militancy and selfishness. I see a possible global dark age descending upon us, and it will make life difficult for a long, long time.
This ‘inevitable” situation can be avoided, but it’s gong to take a lot of activism. And interim miserey.
Don Sahong Dam in southern Laos
If Charles Frith is a human being rather than a spam algorithm, maybe he would kindly explain to us what he’s trying to say here.
Thailand’s ballots and bullets
Well, the police stated last night that would make an arrest in two days and linked the shooter in Lopburi with the case you mention. They have also pointed out that the identikit picture for the Lopburi killer matches one of the gunmen on their most wanted list. He is said to be protected by “men in uniform.” So all this should be sorted out in a day or so. Yeah, right….
Ear decoration or defloration?
I have no idea but it reminds me of the earlier post on NM.
http://www.newmandala.org/2010/09/13/linga-bell-linga-bell-jingle-all-the-way/
Are these item found only near the head of a female bodies? Do you know if the bodies were children, teenagers, adults or elderly people?
Thailand’s invisible hand
#55 Andrew Walker
The anti-Thaksin yellow shirts took to the streets when the new government was only a few months old, occupying Government House and eventually shutting down Bangkok’s international airport
Andrew, you seemed to have left out what the “new government did that caused the demonstrations. Wouldn’t that have added some needed context to what was going on?
Did you support the PPP’s self serving effort to quickly amend the constitution which only became an issue for them when Yongyuth got the red card?
The real issue and the motivation for the PAD demonstrations and PPP’s effort to amend the constitution always seems to be left out of what is often written about those times. Also left out is that Yongyuth was indeed caught red-handed buying votes.
Australians, cattles, refugees and Four Corners
Thank you SBS.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1561256/Aussies-swap-places-with-asylum-seekers#
Don Sahong Dam in southern Laos
Still lacking the courage to assault capitalism? No point quibbling over the spoils of war.
Thailand’s invisible hand
Your article Andrew Walker underscores exactly the point of my argument that the Red Shirts leaders, and NOT PM Abhisit, was guilty of bad faith during last year’s negotiations. While PM Abhisit was sincere about his November 2010 election offer, Red Shirt leaders already under the influence of violent radicals (the Black Shirts) were compelled to escalate their demands leading to the unnecessary bloodshed and mayhem.
I could argue that the Red Shirts demand for an election was a charade from the very first day of their protest march. The troika Thaksin/Khattiya/Pallop had already the violent Black Shirts group freely mingling with the Red Shirts specifically to foment an urban ‘civil war’. Most of the Red Shirts followers were completely unaware that the end game of the Red Shirts leaders had always been violent provocation (M79 grenade launchers indiscriminate attacks), confrontation . . . then war.
War in Kachin State
To #14
Reticent to act against this present regime?
Among the major ethnic groups, Karen is probably the largest, that receive the shortest ends and have the most legitimate gripes against this present Bamar regime.
From the result of the continuing struggle since b/f 1948 one can easily see the examples to be for the smaller groups. These groups have very little choice but to play along, reticent they are not not.
The give and take, with more giving by the minorities than taking b/t the dominant Bamar has been going on.
When the Bamar regime was weaker during the initial sanction periods by the west, the giving and taking was better through the negotiated so called ” treaties” by Khin Nyunt.
That was then, because of the continual useless careless policy/threat of the west induced paranoia, the SLOR transform to SPDC. With the ever protection of China, has built an arm force that not only is intended for the internal put down but also possible external threats.
The fore sight of Than Shwe/SPDC need be noted and respected in order to deal with this dictator.
Unlike west useless careless way, nothing has been left to chance per this present regime.
As of now, an extremely unlikely possibility of a united ethnic forces against this regime i.e a civil war, even with outside interference, the chance of defeating the Bamar dominance is unlikely.
Thailand’s invisible hand
Andrew Walker – 56
Thanks Vichai. It’s a very good article, so let’s quote a bit more:
But Andrew are you still saying the offer was not fraudulent or have you changed your mind?
Thailand’s invisible hand
Thanks Vichai. It’s a very good article, so let’s quote a bit more:
Thailand’s invisible hand
“There was a fraudulent (November2010 election) offer (from Abhisit).” L. Hoyt C26
If Abhisit’s offer was sincere . . . then the Red Shirts leadership would bear the heaviest guilt for the lives and limbs lost during Year2010 carnage. If Abhisit’s offer was fraudulent . . . then the Abhisit and his party deserved to be condemned with total virulence.
Andrew Walker/Nicholas Farrelly actually had written an article: Bangkok: how did it come to this? http://inside.org.au/bangkok-how-did-it-come-to-this/
Excerpts:
“On 3 May, Prime Minister Abhisit made a final offer, laying down what he described as a road map for national reconciliation. The centrepiece of the offer was an election on 14 November 2010, more than a year ahead of schedule. For a few days it looked like a peaceful resolution was in the offing. The reds took their time considering Abhisit’s offer, and their delays and qualifications appeared to be motivated not by intransigence but by a desire to step down from a position of strength. Then the deal came badly unstuck, seemingly over the theatrical technicality of precisely how the deputy prime minister (and security coordinator), Suthep Thaugsuban, should be called to account for the deaths of 10 April. The reds wanted him to report to the police; he insisted on reporting to an investigations office that fell under his own jurisdiction. The red-shirt leaders were also concerned about how the charges of terrorism against them would be handled. These very serious offences can be punished by life in prison or the death penalty in Thailand.”
Even Walker and Farrelly believed, from the above article they wrote, that Abhisit was making a sincere offer to avoid escalation of confrontation/bloodshed. Red theatrics and the Red Shirt leadership demanding special “amnesty” for themselves had undone the ‘early steps to reconciliation’ at that time and led to the unnecessary deaths of Reds, soldiers and innocents.
Thailand’s invisible hand
LesAbbey
In that case Tarrin why isn’t the election being cancelled. This is the same type of misinformation as last year’s comments of there being no election this year
Is that suppose to be a serious question? Before we can hold an election we have to dissolve the house first, you can’t just dissolve then found out later oh darn we going to lose and then “undissolve” the house.
We have one comment in this thread saying that the offer last year of a November 2010 election was fraudulent and yet last year the argument was that November couldn’t be accepted because it allowed the government to pass the army promotion list first and that Suthep and Abhisit were not prepared to be charged for their roles during the protest up until that point, (or of course charges being dropped against the UDD leaders). It seems that fraud wasn’t the reason the UDD gave last year.
About the removing the general, it’s obviously is not going to be on the table since the very people that you intended to remove is holding the gun in front of you right, just because the argument doesn’t agree with you it doesn’t mean its a fraud.
Chulalongkorn abolished prostration
Leeyiankun #41:
Until their fall from power in October 1976, Thailand was run by Jorm Phon (Field Marshal) Thanom Kittikachorn and his deputy, Jorm Phon (Field Marshal) Prapat Charusathian.
It was then decided that only the king could hold the rank of jorm phon. The next rank down, phon ek (general), is now the highest in the army, albeit with two grades: phon ek ha dao (five star general) and phon ek si dao (four star general).
On the other hand, there are so many “generals” of various grades in the Thai Army that the rank title in itself doesn’t really mean very much. What matters is the command position. As they say about Supreme Command Headquarters, it isn’t (supreme) and it doesn’t (command). Army Commander is the job they all want.
Thailand’s invisible hand
BKK lawyer – 51
Not yet.
Accepted, but as I said I will have to eat my own words in that case.
I can’t remember, but will you if that isn’t the case?
Thailand’s invisible hand
Re the PTP’s apparent advantage in the election: is there any reason to think that the establishment has already come to some tacit agreement with PTP — or parts of PTP — that Hewison is actually correct even in this case? Meaning, more explicitly, that the queen and prince themselves are comfortable enough with a number of PTP’s key figures to be comfortable with elections?
Thailand’s invisible hand
Les Abbey at 43:
Not yet.
Thailand’s invisible hand
Tarrin – 47
There’s nothing wrong with that, we have that situation now was because the Dem really thinks that they can win a month ago.
In that case Tarrin why isn’t the election being cancelled. This is the same type of misinformation as last year’s comments of there being no election this year. It does the anti-government argument no favours because it’s so easily disproved, although I suspect sometimes the writers hope that nobody picks them up on obvious factual errors. There are good arguments to be made against the Abhisit government if you wanted, so why make false ones.
We have one comment in this thread saying that the offer last year of a November 2010 election was fraudulent and yet last year the argument was that November couldn’t be accepted because it allowed the government to pass the army promotion list first and that Suthep and Abhisit were not prepared to be charged for their roles during the protest up until that point, (or of course charges being dropped against the UDD leaders). It seems that fraud wasn’t the reason the UDD gave last year.
So did the democrats think they stood a good chance in July? Probably. Would they cancel an election they thought they couldn’t win? Unlikely.
Now I accept if the Democrats use trouble at the Rachaprasong rally to cancel the election I will have to eat my words.
Then again if all the pro red-shirt supporters had to do the same when writing so many misstatements and so much misinformation, they must be, as my nephew tells me, very very fat by now.
Thailand’s invisible hand
@LesAbbey,
Human rights report or what? On the Thai government jailing people for speaking the truth about the Royals’ unwarranted political interference?
Or would you like a report on how much access Thai people have to unbiased information/unbiased, proper analysis from foreign media about their political situation?
If you want reports on both former issues, I guarantee you that the report would suggest that the they are extremely below average. And you don’t need a genius to analyse it. Trust me.
Thailand’s invisible hand
LesAbbey,
Could you be more specific about the Human Rights Watch report?
I think that Human Rights Watch and their balanced reports have been a huge asset in forcing the discussion to focus on facts and documentable middle ground.
I have no reason to believe what CT has said. But I do think all of these issues do need broad public scrutiny, which requires links or at least an attempt at documenting a point.
It is impossible to know what you mean or what HRW said from your comment.