Nich,
I’d be particularly interested to hear from your interviewees more about the ethnic insurgent groups. Of the big news items these past two weeks (the elections, Suu Kyi’s release, etc), most commentary has completely ignored the fact that several ethnic groups formed an alliance against the junta (I believe they’re calling it a Federal Army). Furthermore, most of the major ethnic insurgent groups have voiced support for Suu Kyi. This could signal a degree of cooperation and unity amongst the various parts of the opposition not seen during previous flashpoints such as 1988 and 2007. Or it could just mean a bunch of armed insurgents don’t want to give up their guns…
Thanks,
Dom
Even if some army units heeded ASSK’s call for a peaceful revolution, there is a hardcore group that would turn Burma into another Romania, with fighting in the streets, and people being mowed down by the thousands.
The generals have already amply demonstrated that a large number of murdered citizens is of no consequence to them.
Additionally, I’m sure that more than a few of them spend restless nights, wondering what sort of treatment they’ll receive in the Hague.
If you think about it, where would the generals go if deposed? To China? Not likely. The Chinese want to do business with whomever is in power in Burma, and if that means turning over the generals, or even denying them entry, no problem. For the Chinese it’s all about energy and money.
Singapore would simply steal their ill gotten money, then send them on their way.
And does anyone believe that the high rolling generals would want to spend their remaining years in the “paradise” of North Korea?
No, the generals are trapped. They will do whatever they have to to remain in power.
Surely you know that anything with “International” in its title is suspect in Thailand – it’s just so, well, foreign. Different if there were a Thai-run survey of Thai businesses to cite…..
Oh – it seems there is.
“In September, the IOD [Thai Institute of Directors], the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Thai Chamber of Commerce jointly conducted a survey among 1,000 business respondents nationwide and found that 93% perceived corruption existed, 88% felt it would worsen and 77% felt it was increasing. 54% said corruption cost them between 10 per cent and 30 per cent more for services and production.”http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/205545/spotlight-on-corruption
@LesAbbey (c6)
“It would be easy to throw the last two Democrat governments in, but usually they have been in coalition with parties that are far worse than themselves.”
So, by your definition, does Abhisit taking office through having the accomplished BJT foxes brought into the hen-house still leave him “sweet smelling” ? Must be an almighty powerful perfume on those roses Newin presented to him.
She did indeed up the ante in that interview. We’ll have to wait and see how “my” generals respond.
I think you’re misreading the situation to some extent. The parties were indeed surprised by the extent of the vote rigging but were under no illusions about what was going to take place. The point was to get a few voices into parliaments that were going to sit with or without them. Which they’ve done, albeit not as many as they or the electorate hoped.
Why did two-thirds of eligible voters in Yangon vote? Not because they were forced to, that’s for sure, otherwise the USDP would have had 99pc of votes. One of the major reasons was that there were candidates or parties they felt were worth supporting.
The divide you are talking about has been there for many years. I think Marie Lall is pointing out a more recent trend – maybe she overemphasised its importance.
Her call on Sunday for all ethnic minorities in Burma to meet for 2nd Panglong Conference seems a pretty daring step. ( http://goo.gl/GnlHH )
I wonder how the generals will react?
It seems sadly inevitable to me that they will try to kill her in some murky way that leaves an aura of ambiguity floating over the dead body so as to partially cover their tracks.
And following that there will be an emotional but short-lived uprising more brutal than the last.
And then the generals will hunker down in their jungle hideaway/capital.
if only they would retire to their penthouse condos in Singapore and live out their remaining days playing golf and chasing massage girls, the world and the Burmese people would be so much better off.
I can understand why you don’t want to now talk about similarities and differences between the the Burmese and Thai Generals. It was OK to hint at them being the same but in the cold light of day it all looks a bit silly doesn’t it.
So what do these pro-democratic anti-military UDD supporters think of Jattaporn’s statement over the weekend. He said, while asking UDD supporters to wear black to the funeral, that all of the UDD loved that other great pro-democratic anti-military man, Samak, so much. How about you two, Polyphemus & RN England, did you love him so much?
Mr. Anwar Ibrahim was at the ANU yesterday noting that Pakatan Rakyat has already agreed to replace race based affirmative action with needs based one.
Granted that PR still needs to iron out many issues, they seem to be Malaysia’s best bet.
Also, more Malaysians are supporting the idea of a third force – or citizens fielding their own representatives. Examples of these are People’s Parliament and TindakMalaysia by Malaysians4Change.
In the recent Australian elections, independent candidates did well. Something that Malaysians can emulate.
These candidates that represent the peoples interest first (and not a party) may also be a catalyst for change in Malaysia.
Flushing out the opposition is what they’ve done time and again, so you do have a point there. I’d say it’s a bit late in the game now, as the above ground opposition is mostly out in the open, and their underground counterparts – I guess there must be this side of the movement – are not about to break cover.
I agree it’s hard to figure out what’s going on in the generals’ mind. For one thing, as I mentioned earlier, they have not stopped the NLD’s defiant continuation of its political work, no arrests, no outlawing the ‘disbanded’ party so far. And the chink in the regime’s armour is definitely their own rank and file.
It’s hard to imagine they are finding it hard to get their act together, since if they don’t hang together they would most assuredly hang seperately, notwithstanding the dichotomy within the ruling military class when part of the top brass was forced out of uniform and made to ‘reapply for their old jobs’ in government.
It’s even harder to imagine they had an epiphany or a Damascene conversion. Only the gullible and the regime apologist would say the election was a genuine step to democracy particularly after the events that just unfolded. Safer to assume that this is the usual cat and mouse game with a change in the backdrop and the villain of the piece donning the democratic mask after the socialist one was dropped in the last act.
I do hope this is not a disguised version of the Hundred Flowers Campaign. Perhaps the timing is all designed to test the waters… so that the generals can get an idea of who to watch?
The optimist in me hopes the current happenings are part of a genuine attempt to democratically govern, and releasing ASSK is the first gesture along the path to a fairer system. There does seem to be some hope at the moment… but it’s all so very hard to work out what is happening and why it is happening now.
All I’m saying is she must consider all options and prepare herself and the people. If winning international adulation and accolades is all she cares for, she is in the wrong struggle. She might as well leave the country like some well meaning but wrongheaded people have advised and the generals hope she’d do. But I do hope she’s not going to need plan B, and good luck to her. She knows she’s going to need it.
Marie Lall’s post-election recycling of the ‘Third force’ argument falls flat on its face when we’ve all just witnessed the reality that hit the opposition parties which contested the polls and spectacularly lost thanks to the unashamed, no holds barred electoral rigging and fraud by the regime. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20018
The rift she highlighted between those who fell for the sham election and those who boycotted it inside and outside Burma now looks pretty irrelevant as those who contested and were let down unceremoniously are still licking their wounds in dismay and disillusionment.
The real divide remains the increasing polarisation between the ‘elected’ military regime and its cronies, proxies, stooges and apologists on one hand and not just the anti-regime groups inside and those outside of the country but the overwhelming majority of the ‘electorate’ including the army rank and file and their familes on the other.
Plus ├зa change. Zoe Daniels must be thinking of the emperor’s new clothes.
Vichai.N 13
Those “violent murderous reds” you fear so much… Who built the conditions for their evolution? Be careful when you stare into the abyss…
Have you ever tried putting out a fire by pouring gasoline on it?
Combustion=fuel+oxygen+heat
Les Abbey 19
1) Number of military coups in Thailand since 1962?
2) Number of Generals/ex-generals as PM?
3) “half handed power back to the politicians.”- What did they do withg the other half?
I’m still working with iceberg theory mate, …..as is the Burmese junta evidently.
Moe Aung,
If I understand you correctly you are calling for:
1) Armed insurrection against the junta
2) The daughter of Aung San to lead it
From what I understand of Daw Aung San’s stance of non-violent protest I don’t think this is a realistic view, much as I appreciate your frustration.
Her principles have been placed on the international stage and deviation from these would undermine her valued position and play directly into the hands of the military.
You will have to look elsewhere for a militant leader but I’d suggest you don’t throw aside the ruby whilst searching for a diamond. I think she is aware of the danger of being sidelined by events as some critics have postulated. Equally the juntas game has moved to a new phase and their tactics have perceptibly changed. If there is room for her to exert influence or open up dialogue with the outside world it must be worth exploring. I am sure the generals sense change in the outside world order and are now looking to change or legitimise their role in it with China’s assistance. We should, for now at least follow Daw Aung Sans precept of expecting the worst but praying/plannig for the best.
#2 “Could someone refresh my mind as to what Australia has done to help either Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or Burma?”
We shouldn’t forget the one-man Oz Junta-appeaser Ross Dunkley over at the Myanmar Times. He now also appeases Hun Sen in Cambodia. Ross is a complete hypocrite.
#20 Apart from the word socialist it sounds like you are talking about the technically bankrupt USA – the land fit only for the tea party greedy bastards
The NEP may have benefitted certain individuals immensely, but the problem, in my opinion, is that the policies benefit a favoured majority, at the expense of an unwanted minority. These racist policies will not be put aside so easily when the ruling party’s mouthpiece have recently described the bloody May 13 race riots as a “sacred day”.
A high income economy requires a world-class education system, but Malaysia has a rubbish, highly politicised education system. How else can a system that churns out thousands of straight-A students have so many unemployable university graduates?
I foresee a continuing decline in Malaysia’s fortune in the decades to come. Racist attitudes, where “kulit-fication” trumps merit, entrenched by the Birio Tatanegara will take something extraordinary to change. And I don’t see where that change is going to come from. Do you?
LesAbbey(19). How many governments (most not even civilian) have Thai generals toppled? How many constitutions have they torn up?How many new sets of puppets have there been?
As the coup happend in 2006, the conclusion is quite clear. The situation is now worse than under Thaksin.
Most expats involved in Business in Thailand would confirm that they have to face more daily corruption now than before the coup. It seems also that under Thaksin corruption was somehow more ‘centralised’, so less affecting daily life, whereas the overall cost for the country may have been the same.
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Burma commentary, with more to come
Nich,
I’d be particularly interested to hear from your interviewees more about the ethnic insurgent groups. Of the big news items these past two weeks (the elections, Suu Kyi’s release, etc), most commentary has completely ignored the fact that several ethnic groups formed an alliance against the junta (I believe they’re calling it a Federal Army). Furthermore, most of the major ethnic insurgent groups have voiced support for Suu Kyi. This could signal a degree of cooperation and unity amongst the various parts of the opposition not seen during previous flashpoints such as 1988 and 2007. Or it could just mean a bunch of armed insurgents don’t want to give up their guns…
Thanks,
Dom
Aung San Suu Kyi on engagement
Even if some army units heeded ASSK’s call for a peaceful revolution, there is a hardcore group that would turn Burma into another Romania, with fighting in the streets, and people being mowed down by the thousands.
The generals have already amply demonstrated that a large number of murdered citizens is of no consequence to them.
Additionally, I’m sure that more than a few of them spend restless nights, wondering what sort of treatment they’ll receive in the Hague.
If you think about it, where would the generals go if deposed? To China? Not likely. The Chinese want to do business with whomever is in power in Burma, and if that means turning over the generals, or even denying them entry, no problem. For the Chinese it’s all about energy and money.
Singapore would simply steal their ill gotten money, then send them on their way.
And does anyone believe that the high rolling generals would want to spend their remaining years in the “paradise” of North Korea?
No, the generals are trapped. They will do whatever they have to to remain in power.
Aung San Suu Kyi released
I believe that ASSK could call for resistance to the generals, and the people would rise up, but she wouldn’t live to see the end of it.
I’d like to see her do two things, neither of which is likely:
1) leave Burma, then form a government in exile. I think many countries would quickly recognize her as the legitimate head of Burma.
2) for once, speak directly to the hopes and aspirations of the hill tribes, who have borne the brunt of the genocide.
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
@ ngoupla (c21):
Surely you know that anything with “International” in its title is suspect in Thailand – it’s just so, well, foreign. Different if there were a Thai-run survey of Thai businesses to cite…..
Oh – it seems there is.
“In September, the IOD [Thai Institute of Directors], the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Thai Chamber of Commerce jointly conducted a survey among 1,000 business respondents nationwide and found that 93% perceived corruption existed, 88% felt it would worsen and 77% felt it was increasing. 54% said corruption cost them between 10 per cent and 30 per cent more for services and production.” http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/205545/spotlight-on-corruption
@LesAbbey (c6)
“It would be easy to throw the last two Democrat governments in, but usually they have been in coalition with parties that are far worse than themselves.”
So, by your definition, does Abhisit taking office through having the accomplished BJT foxes brought into the hen-house still leave him “sweet smelling” ? Must be an almighty powerful perfume on those roses Newin presented to him.
Aung San Suu Kyi on engagement
Moe Aung,
She did indeed up the ante in that interview. We’ll have to wait and see how “my” generals respond.
I think you’re misreading the situation to some extent. The parties were indeed surprised by the extent of the vote rigging but were under no illusions about what was going to take place. The point was to get a few voices into parliaments that were going to sit with or without them. Which they’ve done, albeit not as many as they or the electorate hoped.
Why did two-thirds of eligible voters in Yangon vote? Not because they were forced to, that’s for sure, otherwise the USDP would have had 99pc of votes. One of the major reasons was that there were candidates or parties they felt were worth supporting.
The divide you are talking about has been there for many years. I think Marie Lall is pointing out a more recent trend – maybe she overemphasised its importance.
Aung San Suu Kyi on engagement
Her call on Sunday for all ethnic minorities in Burma to meet for 2nd Panglong Conference seems a pretty daring step. ( http://goo.gl/GnlHH )
I wonder how the generals will react?
It seems sadly inevitable to me that they will try to kill her in some murky way that leaves an aura of ambiguity floating over the dead body so as to partially cover their tracks.
And following that there will be an emotional but short-lived uprising more brutal than the last.
And then the generals will hunker down in their jungle hideaway/capital.
if only they would retire to their penthouse condos in Singapore and live out their remaining days playing golf and chasing massage girls, the world and the Burmese people would be so much better off.
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
Polyphemus – RN England
I can understand why you don’t want to now talk about similarities and differences between the the Burmese and Thai Generals. It was OK to hint at them being the same but in the cold light of day it all looks a bit silly doesn’t it.
So what do these pro-democratic anti-military UDD supporters think of Jattaporn’s statement over the weekend. He said, while asking UDD supporters to wear black to the funeral, that all of the UDD loved that other great pro-democratic anti-military man, Samak, so much. How about you two, Polyphemus & RN England, did you love him so much?
Malaysia’s economic future
I agree with you James,
Mr. Anwar Ibrahim was at the ANU yesterday noting that Pakatan Rakyat has already agreed to replace race based affirmative action with needs based one.
Granted that PR still needs to iron out many issues, they seem to be Malaysia’s best bet.
Also, more Malaysians are supporting the idea of a third force – or citizens fielding their own representatives. Examples of these are People’s Parliament and TindakMalaysia by Malaysians4Change.
In the recent Australian elections, independent candidates did well. Something that Malaysians can emulate.
These candidates that represent the peoples interest first (and not a party) may also be a catalyst for change in Malaysia.
Aung San Suu Kyi released
Fisherman,
Flushing out the opposition is what they’ve done time and again, so you do have a point there. I’d say it’s a bit late in the game now, as the above ground opposition is mostly out in the open, and their underground counterparts – I guess there must be this side of the movement – are not about to break cover.
I agree it’s hard to figure out what’s going on in the generals’ mind. For one thing, as I mentioned earlier, they have not stopped the NLD’s defiant continuation of its political work, no arrests, no outlawing the ‘disbanded’ party so far. And the chink in the regime’s armour is definitely their own rank and file.
It’s hard to imagine they are finding it hard to get their act together, since if they don’t hang together they would most assuredly hang seperately, notwithstanding the dichotomy within the ruling military class when part of the top brass was forced out of uniform and made to ‘reapply for their old jobs’ in government.
It’s even harder to imagine they had an epiphany or a Damascene conversion. Only the gullible and the regime apologist would say the election was a genuine step to democracy particularly after the events that just unfolded. Safer to assume that this is the usual cat and mouse game with a change in the backdrop and the villain of the piece donning the democratic mask after the socialist one was dropped in the last act.
Aung San Suu Kyi released
I do hope this is not a disguised version of the Hundred Flowers Campaign. Perhaps the timing is all designed to test the waters… so that the generals can get an idea of who to watch?
The optimist in me hopes the current happenings are part of a genuine attempt to democratically govern, and releasing ASSK is the first gesture along the path to a fairer system. There does seem to be some hope at the moment… but it’s all so very hard to work out what is happening and why it is happening now.
Aung San Suu Kyi released
Polyphemus
All I’m saying is she must consider all options and prepare herself and the people. If winning international adulation and accolades is all she cares for, she is in the wrong struggle. She might as well leave the country like some well meaning but wrongheaded people have advised and the generals hope she’d do. But I do hope she’s not going to need plan B, and good luck to her. She knows she’s going to need it.
Aung San Suu Kyi on engagement
kyaw
Marie Lall’s post-election recycling of the ‘Third force’ argument falls flat on its face when we’ve all just witnessed the reality that hit the opposition parties which contested the polls and spectacularly lost thanks to the unashamed, no holds barred electoral rigging and fraud by the regime. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20018
The rift she highlighted between those who fell for the sham election and those who boycotted it inside and outside Burma now looks pretty irrelevant as those who contested and were let down unceremoniously are still licking their wounds in dismay and disillusionment.
The real divide remains the increasing polarisation between the ‘elected’ military regime and its cronies, proxies, stooges and apologists on one hand and not just the anti-regime groups inside and those outside of the country but the overwhelming majority of the ‘electorate’ including the army rank and file and their familes on the other.
Plus ├зa change. Zoe Daniels must be thinking of the emperor’s new clothes.
Whatever the ‘rules of engagement’ or rather the lack of engagement altogether that your generals abide by, ASSK appears to have upped the ante when she said today to the BBC’s John Simpson that she wanted a peaceful revolution..the right way was for the military to lay down their powers..do their duty to the country.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9189000/9189578.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11755169
The ball is now in your generals’ court.
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
Vichai.N 13
Those “violent murderous reds” you fear so much… Who built the conditions for their evolution? Be careful when you stare into the abyss…
Have you ever tried putting out a fire by pouring gasoline on it?
Combustion=fuel+oxygen+heat
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
Les Abbey 19
1) Number of military coups in Thailand since 1962?
2) Number of Generals/ex-generals as PM?
3) “half handed power back to the politicians.”- What did they do withg the other half?
I’m still working with iceberg theory mate, …..as is the Burmese junta evidently.
Rgds,
Polyphemus-“….through a glass darkly”
Aung San Suu Kyi released
Moe Aung,
If I understand you correctly you are calling for:
1) Armed insurrection against the junta
2) The daughter of Aung San to lead it
From what I understand of Daw Aung San’s stance of non-violent protest I don’t think this is a realistic view, much as I appreciate your frustration.
Her principles have been placed on the international stage and deviation from these would undermine her valued position and play directly into the hands of the military.
You will have to look elsewhere for a militant leader but I’d suggest you don’t throw aside the ruby whilst searching for a diamond. I think she is aware of the danger of being sidelined by events as some critics have postulated. Equally the juntas game has moved to a new phase and their tactics have perceptibly changed. If there is room for her to exert influence or open up dialogue with the outside world it must be worth exploring. I am sure the generals sense change in the outside world order and are now looking to change or legitimise their role in it with China’s assistance. We should, for now at least follow Daw Aung Sans precept of expecting the worst but praying/plannig for the best.
Aung San Suu Kyi on engagement
#2 “Could someone refresh my mind as to what Australia has done to help either Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or Burma?”
We shouldn’t forget the one-man Oz Junta-appeaser Ross Dunkley over at the Myanmar Times. He now also appeases Hun Sen in Cambodia. Ross is a complete hypocrite.
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
#20 Apart from the word socialist it sounds like you are talking about the technically bankrupt USA – the land fit only for the tea party greedy bastards
Malaysia’s economic future
” reverse policies that benefit a select few ”
The NEP may have benefitted certain individuals immensely, but the problem, in my opinion, is that the policies benefit a favoured majority, at the expense of an unwanted minority. These racist policies will not be put aside so easily when the ruling party’s mouthpiece have recently described the bloody May 13 race riots as a “sacred day”.
A high income economy requires a world-class education system, but Malaysia has a rubbish, highly politicised education system. How else can a system that churns out thousands of straight-A students have so many unemployable university graduates?
I foresee a continuing decline in Malaysia’s fortune in the decades to come. Racist attitudes, where “kulit-fication” trumps merit, entrenched by the Birio Tatanegara will take something extraordinary to change. And I don’t see where that change is going to come from. Do you?
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
LesAbbey(19). How many governments (most not even civilian) have Thai generals toppled? How many constitutions have they torn up?How many new sets of puppets have there been?
Abhisit on sufficiency and corruption
Thailand rank according to Transparency International corruption index.
2001 61
2002 64
2003 70
2004 64
2005 59
2006 63
2007 84
2008 80
2009 84
2010 78
As the coup happend in 2006, the conclusion is quite clear. The situation is now worse than under Thaksin.
Most expats involved in Business in Thailand would confirm that they have to face more daily corruption now than before the coup. It seems also that under Thaksin corruption was somehow more ‘centralised’, so less affecting daily life, whereas the overall cost for the country may have been the same.