Interesting analysis, thank you! I have been looking for an “anatomy” of the insurgency for quite a while, this was helpful. Just as a sidenote: You misquoted Zachary Abuza’s book – it’s called “Conspiracy of Silence”, not “Conspiracy of Violence” (you also omitted the article in the subtitle). 😉
While this is a fascinating and from my perspective fairly accurate description of what is going on in the army, at the end of the day, this article seeks to explain the situation from a facet of the army perspective. While it is true that the army do exert undue influence on Thai politics, one must not underestimate the more indirect influence of the Families, and of course the white elephant. Power is after all judiciously and carefully and delicately divided between all of the above players.
The heart of everything that recently ended with parts of Bangkok burning can be simply traced back to – Generational Change.
The King was in ill health. Prem is also getting on his years. The next generation is jostling amongst themselves, and itching to take over. Imagine all the potential for back room deals and fights that is certain to take place in such a situation.
To say that Jiw was bought by Taksin with money is a very naive way of looking at the whole. It is true that Taksin’s wealth bought him some allies, but by and large, the most powerful that sided with Taksin is motivated by more than money – it is power, and long term power after Prem that all the big players are looking at.
I’m sorry, I think I need to think more carefully about phrasing what I would like to write.
This is one of the few rare balanced piece on the current crisis in Thailand. It is carefully thought out and clearly presented – one may disagree on some points, but no one can fault the logical reasoning behind those points.
That’s what reconciliation is all about, ability to reason and ability to accept the reasoning behind an opposing view, backed up by offers of a possible solution, practical way to move forward. Almost all of the above qualities are missing in the dialogue of those in power and in Thai media.
Thank you very much for writing this, and writing it so well. It is a calming influence for me. (Just got back from BKK and feeling uptight – guess that came out in my recent posts)
LOL – I would like to write more, but I think I am still a little too tensed to do justice to your writing if I were to comment. Otherwise, I am keen to explore the “paradoxes” you mentioned re poor and rich and well-off UDD leaders – I believe historically people’s power uprisings usually only succeed when it is backed by a number of elites that oppose their own ‘class’ for whatever reasons (whether altruistic or not) as per the French revolution and the Russian one too.
Instead on harping on and on about Taksin, why don’t you offer to help those who wanted and needed help HOW to do it?
I totally agree with you that for the RS to move forward, they really should become as remove from Taksin as possible. I know a number of the UDD leaders are working to do that – clearest example is Giles Ungpakorn who wrote multiple times on his blog on this issue.
So yes, those leaders who organize and abetted holding the country’s economy to ransom should be charged and punished – they should never be promoted to position of Foreign Minister! Both sides should be EQUALLY punished.
Enough of that.
Like you, I want Thailand to continue prospering. When TRT introduced the B6K affordable loans, a lot of my BKK friends “screamed” that all these money would only go to waste or go to pay loan sharks or the Thai govt will never get the money back or wasted money etc etc. What my family did was talk to our workers, help set up “talks” on money management and business management. We cautioned on jumping into action but taught them about drawing up a business plan and how to manage finances. We also stress very hard on NOT to use credit cards as atm debit cards and the reason why (the uber high loan shark rates by banks) after TRT allows banks to give credit cards to those earning B6K a month. A number of them eventually help their relations or themselves set up businesses. Some worked, not all. That was my family’s contribution to the country on one of TRT’s policy platform.
One can be positive or negative, Del. Now, may I respectfully ask for your contribution?
With the Emergency Decree still in widespread force – and still no sign of when it might be lifted – it’s interesting to ponder just how many pro-UDD respondents will be willing to risk saying what they really think if the government piggy-backs an opinion poll onto the long-scheduled but delayed* 2010 census.
The Burmese names are interesting. Wonder what they were up to? Were they really fighting for Thai democracy or really arrested for something else? An amnesty will not help them, as they will be deported when the police and courts have finished with them.
Yeah, I know of those investigations, and those that came before in previous all governments I was old enough to know. Nothing new and shocking about those investigations at all, even as I totally agree with you that that kind of an investigation is wrong and outrageous, especially in a democracy.
However, I believe the fair question should be – why just get mad at Taksin and not those who came before?
(And do give Taksin credit here for daring to defend his actions – even if I totally disagree with his actions. Compared to some others who forever “delegate jobs and responsibilities”.)
Unfortunately, my point is, if one wants to be a “good” journalist on a high moral ground, then one MUST report “facts” regardless of personal hatreds and passions (even if the writing might inevitably turn out a little bias, but then that’s what editors are for). They can of course hate Taksin (and anyone) but within reason.
Example: They cannot, knowing the definition of democracy, reasoned that it is ok for 70% of the legislation be appointed because Taksin is rich enough to buy the most rural votes. Honestly, eventually another man or group of businessmen will come together to do exactly what Taksin did to win Thai elections – it is really a matter of time.
They cannot reason that it is OK for the coup to overthrow TRT simply because they hated Taksin and feel Taksin is the most corrupted. – so what if Taksin is? He played the rules of the game and won. Since this is World Cup season, imagine China (China paid the highest rate to hire most of the world’s best coaches) won the World Cup playing by the rules and Fifa chose to disqualify them on the basis that China is not a democracy and give the cup to USA instead.
Guess which act is more outrageous?
As for Takisn – he’s the politician, isn’t he? Why do the “honorable” Nation journalists want to lower themselves to his level? Why should they not be expected to keep to higher standards as a journalists?
If I cannot trust Taksin because he is a politician, and I cannot trust a “free press” like Nation, then, pray tell, who can I trust?
[…] The above recommendations cannot be implemented successfully without eventually dismantling BN’s patronage system and to date, all of Najib’s moves that has hints of reducing or dismantling BN’s patronage have backfired (read here and here). […]
As of today, the patronage system is alive and well. If one check out the EPU website, one will see that management, analytical guidelines etc are very well prepared. They always have been well prepared, as the authors are always some professsor or other.
Given that perpecstive, one would not give too much credence to the 10th Malaysia Plan ability to transform the economy. Its the political will and the administrative abilities that are lacking. Najib is not really doing anything to change that. The same old tired faces are running Ministries and Project Action groups. These people are not capable to seeing things in new light nor capable of taking action that goes beyond personal interest nor “we have always done it this way and its hard to change – you don’t understand the difficulty”
I hope I am wrong, but having some not so positive experiences recently with Science Ministry and IEM (Inst of Engineers Malaysia) people, I am not so sure.
Most important of ALL – is when are we going to see a return of the good Captain Fufu ?
Has he been promoted to Colonel yet ? – long overdue (in my humble opinion).
I have large numbers of people asking me about the good soldier Fufu ! It is a big fan-club, and growing. With an occasional growl !
What is also needed is more overt and systematic analyzes of the Thai judicial system and of recent decisions against Thaksin and the red in order to critically evaluate (and potentially substantiate) claims of double standards and of a blatantly biased judiciary.
Should we also look at decisions taken by the judiciary like the granting of bail to Jataporn and the real fear among the Democrats that their party will be wound up? Or can we only look at those that fit the model? For me I have never seen the judiciary so independent of the politicians and the government as they have been since 2007. If you can, just think back to how they behaved before under most of the post-WW2 governments.
I am skeptical about the rural-urban disparity framework of analysis because the color-coated division in Thai politics covers both areas. A large part of the Yellow Shirts are the poor and middle-income Thai Chinese in Bangkok who would like to have better education and better employment opportunities like the Chinese in Singapore or Hong Kong. That’s why they were against Samak whom the Yellow Shirts leaders equated him with corrupted pork-barrel politics.
I also skeptical about regional disparity assumption because the educational level of people in the central and the southern regions are not different from the north or northeast regions, yet they are not that active in political affairs. Most countries in the world has regional disparity without crisis. The Red-Shirts’ discontent, in my opinion, is more of a political issue; it’s about their votes were robbed and the double standards treatment. That’s why they demand a parliament dissolution and call for new fresh election.
I think it would be helpful if UNDP gives contract out to analysts who know a bit more in- depth about Thailand than the general happiness index.
Lastly, I think economists, political scientists, etc., should be involved in the policy options’ analysis. I’m just afraid that Aphisit may borrow money to launch populist policies so that he can stay in power to the point that Thailand could become the next Greece.
I’m assured you that I’m as Thai as I can be, I was born and raise in BKK. My family even got some people working with the Thai Military and the Police. I know what’s the deal here, this is not about personal attitude but the system so corrupted that if you even show a slight intention to of disrupting it, you will be punish dearly. However, if you lick your way hard, you will be rewarded handsomely. Believe me, if I don’t know what is so rotten in there I wouldn’t dare to say all those harsh criticism.
If you don’t believed me then take a look at what happen to the person responsible for 14 Oct 1973 massacre, Thanom Kittikachorn, he was responsible for 77 deaths during the massacre. What happened to him? He was nominated to become a member of the honorary Royal Guard by Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, fortunately he turned down the offer. Moreover, all of his medical spending was being paid by palace. This is just one obvious example, if you dig into Thailand’s history to will no that there are so many things that have gone wrong.
One potentially major pro-farmers and pro-poor policy proposed by the govt was not so much mentioned in the press I believed. It’s the proposal to have universal pensions, even for farmers.
see: PRD (2010) Greater Opportunities to be Provided for Farmers in Response to the Reconciliation Roadmap (02/06/2010). Public Relations Department, (2 June ). http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_inside.php?id=5060
That, plus the proposal to have communal property of agricultural land – and not forest – and other policies could lead to a draconian and badly needed change in Thai agricultural policy.
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Anatomy of southern Thailand’s insurgency: Some preliminary insights
Interesting analysis, thank you! I have been looking for an “anatomy” of the insurgency for quite a while, this was helpful. Just as a sidenote: You misquoted Zachary Abuza’s book – it’s called “Conspiracy of Silence”, not “Conspiracy of Violence” (you also omitted the article in the subtitle). 😉
The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military
Yuri: (Re your qn abt Big jiw)
While this is a fascinating and from my perspective fairly accurate description of what is going on in the army, at the end of the day, this article seeks to explain the situation from a facet of the army perspective. While it is true that the army do exert undue influence on Thai politics, one must not underestimate the more indirect influence of the Families, and of course the white elephant. Power is after all judiciously and carefully and delicately divided between all of the above players.
The heart of everything that recently ended with parts of Bangkok burning can be simply traced back to – Generational Change.
The King was in ill health. Prem is also getting on his years. The next generation is jostling amongst themselves, and itching to take over. Imagine all the potential for back room deals and fights that is certain to take place in such a situation.
To say that Jiw was bought by Taksin with money is a very naive way of looking at the whole. It is true that Taksin’s wealth bought him some allies, but by and large, the most powerful that sided with Taksin is motivated by more than money – it is power, and long term power after Prem that all the big players are looking at.
I’m sorry, I think I need to think more carefully about phrasing what I would like to write.
Thailand in crisis – Episode 3
LesAbbey – 9
Jatuporn is a MP, he’s has parliament immunity.
Funny, independent jurisdiction that broke almost all rule of law ever written?
Reconciliation: climbing the mountain
Herbertson,
This is one of the few rare balanced piece on the current crisis in Thailand. It is carefully thought out and clearly presented – one may disagree on some points, but no one can fault the logical reasoning behind those points.
That’s what reconciliation is all about, ability to reason and ability to accept the reasoning behind an opposing view, backed up by offers of a possible solution, practical way to move forward. Almost all of the above qualities are missing in the dialogue of those in power and in Thai media.
Thank you very much for writing this, and writing it so well. It is a calming influence for me. (Just got back from BKK and feeling uptight – guess that came out in my recent posts)
LOL – I would like to write more, but I think I am still a little too tensed to do justice to your writing if I were to comment. Otherwise, I am keen to explore the “paradoxes” you mentioned re poor and rich and well-off UDD leaders – I believe historically people’s power uprisings usually only succeed when it is backed by a number of elites that oppose their own ‘class’ for whatever reasons (whether altruistic or not) as per the French revolution and the Russian one too.
Violating human rights? Yes, indeed!
LesAbbey #96, Michael #97
If you could read Thai, perhaps this provides more details than the Nation’s report:
excerpts from Preliminary Report on the Thaksin’s war on Drugs policy by independent panel chaired by Khanit na Nakhon
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1276264478&catid=02
Violating human rights? Yes, indeed!
Thank you Les #96. Pleased to have this link.
Reconciliation: climbing the mountain
Del, a suggestion:
Instead on harping on and on about Taksin, why don’t you offer to help those who wanted and needed help HOW to do it?
I totally agree with you that for the RS to move forward, they really should become as remove from Taksin as possible. I know a number of the UDD leaders are working to do that – clearest example is Giles Ungpakorn who wrote multiple times on his blog on this issue.
So yes, those leaders who organize and abetted holding the country’s economy to ransom should be charged and punished – they should never be promoted to position of Foreign Minister! Both sides should be EQUALLY punished.
Enough of that.
Like you, I want Thailand to continue prospering. When TRT introduced the B6K affordable loans, a lot of my BKK friends “screamed” that all these money would only go to waste or go to pay loan sharks or the Thai govt will never get the money back or wasted money etc etc. What my family did was talk to our workers, help set up “talks” on money management and business management. We cautioned on jumping into action but taught them about drawing up a business plan and how to manage finances. We also stress very hard on NOT to use credit cards as atm debit cards and the reason why (the uber high loan shark rates by banks) after TRT allows banks to give credit cards to those earning B6K a month. A number of them eventually help their relations or themselves set up businesses. Some worked, not all. That was my family’s contribution to the country on one of TRT’s policy platform.
One can be positive or negative, Del. Now, may I respectfully ask for your contribution?
Reconciliation: climbing the mountain
With the Emergency Decree still in widespread force – and still no sign of when it might be lifted – it’s interesting to ponder just how many pro-UDD respondents will be willing to risk saying what they really think if the government piggy-backs an opinion poll onto the long-scheduled but delayed* 2010 census.
If the article at http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/38686/emergency-decree-is-setting-the-stage-for-tragedy is anything to go by, then the answer seems likely to be not many…..
* http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/docViewer.aspx?docID=2402
(Note this from para 3.3.4: “The 2010 Population and Housing Census still adopt face to face interview as the major method of data collection.”)
Information about detainees and places of detention released by the Royal Thai Police
The Burmese names are interesting. Wonder what they were up to? Were they really fighting for Thai democracy or really arrested for something else? An amnesty will not help them, as they will be deported when the police and courts have finished with them.
Thanong on King Bhumibol
StanG:
Yeah, I know of those investigations, and those that came before in previous all governments I was old enough to know. Nothing new and shocking about those investigations at all, even as I totally agree with you that that kind of an investigation is wrong and outrageous, especially in a democracy.
However, I believe the fair question should be – why just get mad at Taksin and not those who came before?
(And do give Taksin credit here for daring to defend his actions – even if I totally disagree with his actions. Compared to some others who forever “delegate jobs and responsibilities”.)
Unfortunately, my point is, if one wants to be a “good” journalist on a high moral ground, then one MUST report “facts” regardless of personal hatreds and passions (even if the writing might inevitably turn out a little bias, but then that’s what editors are for). They can of course hate Taksin (and anyone) but within reason.
Example: They cannot, knowing the definition of democracy, reasoned that it is ok for 70% of the legislation be appointed because Taksin is rich enough to buy the most rural votes. Honestly, eventually another man or group of businessmen will come together to do exactly what Taksin did to win Thai elections – it is really a matter of time.
They cannot reason that it is OK for the coup to overthrow TRT simply because they hated Taksin and feel Taksin is the most corrupted. – so what if Taksin is? He played the rules of the game and won. Since this is World Cup season, imagine China (China paid the highest rate to hire most of the world’s best coaches) won the World Cup playing by the rules and Fifa chose to disqualify them on the basis that China is not a democracy and give the cup to USA instead.
Guess which act is more outrageous?
As for Takisn – he’s the politician, isn’t he? Why do the “honorable” Nation journalists want to lower themselves to his level? Why should they not be expected to keep to higher standards as a journalists?
If I cannot trust Taksin because he is a politician, and I cannot trust a “free press” like Nation, then, pray tell, who can I trust?
Najib – coming up to the half way mark of 2010
[…] The above recommendations cannot be implemented successfully without eventually dismantling BN’s patronage system and to date, all of Najib’s moves that has hints of reducing or dismantling BN’s patronage have backfired (read here and here). […]
Question of the month: Burma and WMD?
Here is a recent article about the Burmese major who provided most of the information on Burma’s nuclear quest.
http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3057:nuclear-defectors-hometown-swarmed-with-junta-agents&catid=86:war&Itemid=284
Najib, what’s the political strategy?
As of today, the patronage system is alive and well. If one check out the EPU website, one will see that management, analytical guidelines etc are very well prepared. They always have been well prepared, as the authors are always some professsor or other.
Given that perpecstive, one would not give too much credence to the 10th Malaysia Plan ability to transform the economy. Its the political will and the administrative abilities that are lacking. Najib is not really doing anything to change that. The same old tired faces are running Ministries and Project Action groups. These people are not capable to seeing things in new light nor capable of taking action that goes beyond personal interest nor “we have always done it this way and its hard to change – you don’t understand the difficulty”
I hope I am wrong, but having some not so positive experiences recently with Science Ministry and IEM (Inst of Engineers Malaysia) people, I am not so sure.
Thailand in crisis – Episode 3
Most important of ALL – is when are we going to see a return of the good Captain Fufu ?
Has he been promoted to Colonel yet ? – long overdue (in my humble opinion).
I have large numbers of people asking me about the good soldier Fufu ! It is a big fan-club, and growing. With an occasional growl !
Thailand in crisis – Episode 3
Leblond – 6
What is also needed is more overt and systematic analyzes of the Thai judicial system and of recent decisions against Thaksin and the red in order to critically evaluate (and potentially substantiate) claims of double standards and of a blatantly biased judiciary.
Should we also look at decisions taken by the judiciary like the granting of bail to Jataporn and the real fear among the Democrats that their party will be wound up? Or can we only look at those that fit the model? For me I have never seen the judiciary so independent of the politicians and the government as they have been since 2007. If you can, just think back to how they behaved before under most of the post-WW2 governments.
Thailand in crisis – Episode 3
I am skeptical about the rural-urban disparity framework of analysis because the color-coated division in Thai politics covers both areas. A large part of the Yellow Shirts are the poor and middle-income Thai Chinese in Bangkok who would like to have better education and better employment opportunities like the Chinese in Singapore or Hong Kong. That’s why they were against Samak whom the Yellow Shirts leaders equated him with corrupted pork-barrel politics.
I also skeptical about regional disparity assumption because the educational level of people in the central and the southern regions are not different from the north or northeast regions, yet they are not that active in political affairs. Most countries in the world has regional disparity without crisis. The Red-Shirts’ discontent, in my opinion, is more of a political issue; it’s about their votes were robbed and the double standards treatment. That’s why they demand a parliament dissolution and call for new fresh election.
I think it would be helpful if UNDP gives contract out to analysts who know a bit more in- depth about Thailand than the general happiness index.
Lastly, I think economists, political scientists, etc., should be involved in the policy options’ analysis. I’m just afraid that Aphisit may borrow money to launch populist policies so that he can stay in power to the point that Thailand could become the next Greece.
The challenges for Thailand’s arch-royalist military
E. Falang – 27
I’m assured you that I’m as Thai as I can be, I was born and raise in BKK. My family even got some people working with the Thai Military and the Police. I know what’s the deal here, this is not about personal attitude but the system so corrupted that if you even show a slight intention to of disrupting it, you will be punish dearly. However, if you lick your way hard, you will be rewarded handsomely. Believe me, if I don’t know what is so rotten in there I wouldn’t dare to say all those harsh criticism.
If you don’t believed me then take a look at what happen to the person responsible for 14 Oct 1973 massacre, Thanom Kittikachorn, he was responsible for 77 deaths during the massacre. What happened to him? He was nominated to become a member of the honorary Royal Guard by Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, fortunately he turned down the offer. Moreover, all of his medical spending was being paid by palace. This is just one obvious example, if you dig into Thailand’s history to will no that there are so many things that have gone wrong.
Violating human rights? Yes, indeed!
What is there “understandably quiet” about murder ?
Violating human rights? Yes, indeed!
Michael – 93
Les Abby #90 : “Some more quotes for you.” Please give source. Quotes are useless unless a source that may be checked is given.
Happy to. Charnchao Chaiyanukij, a member of the inquiry board, being quoted by the Nation. Link below.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/06/12/national/Killings-were-crime-against-humanity-30131407.html
Thailand in crisis – Episode 3
A quick note for AW:
One potentially major pro-farmers and pro-poor policy proposed by the govt was not so much mentioned in the press I believed. It’s the proposal to have universal pensions, even for farmers.
see: PRD (2010) Greater Opportunities to be Provided for Farmers in Response to the Reconciliation Roadmap (02/06/2010). Public Relations Department, (2 June ).
http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_inside.php?id=5060
That, plus the proposal to have communal property of agricultural land – and not forest – and other policies could lead to a draconian and badly needed change in Thai agricultural policy.