Interesting Bangkok Post article linked in the post by SmithJones – completely silent on the old man who is most responsible for all of this and according to an article in Asia Times http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE19Ae01.html forbade any amnesty for Thaksin.
“I can see that those white men who stick noses into Thai’s business ,and have tried to keep up do this stupid network with asshole Thaksin and his allies; you guys had better watch out your own domestic problems. White folks are just like the snakes spread world wild, especailly, those are waiting for a good time to jump into whenever see the chance. This’s call caucasian raptiles ! Go to fuck yourselves in hell !”
Nice.
Have a wander through downtown Bangkok. See all the nice buildings to western design? Paid for with western money.
See all the nice western dressed business folk?
See al the Thai hi-so wearing fashions the rest of the (western) world grew out of 40 years ago? Just discovered in Thailand.
See all the nice western-based businesses helping to enrich Thai ingrates like Rose?
See all the street signs, in Thai and in English?
See the results of Rose’s western fine education in her comments?
What would happen if western influence were to disappear overnight, western countries and the western people you hate stopped buying Thai rice and stopped coming to visit the Thai brothels you populate with the daughters of your uncared-for poor.
Thailand would return to the stone age Rose, so keep a civil tongue in your uneducated and foul-mouthed head.
Oh, and try to get a clue somewhere would you – if you aren;t sure where to get one, ask a farang.
I have no problem accessing. I am — ironically enough — accessing from a wireless connection in a government office in rural Isaan. Once those IT boys catch up on their backlog of file checking I imagine some poor bureaucrat here will have some explaining to do.
Calendars are very important in Thailand. Go into the homes of many ordinary Thais and you will find a calendar on the wall with the King’s portrait, or the King and Queen, or Princes Sirindhorn. No one else. Wonder if after May 19th this will change or remain the same….
I think this is the key to the future of Thailand.
From the 1940’s the military has been the predominant tool for individuals and business families to secure their power. Now the military has grown so that like an octopus it contains the individuals and the businesses that are Thailand.
With 700 generals, retired and active military are entrenched in every aspect of legal and illegal business and hold the reins of power in every aspect of Thai society.
The military calls the shots, and noone can hold them accountable for any of those shots.
The military cause the divisions in Thai society, in the south, rich and poor, lowland and hilltribes, refugees, legal and illegal immigration, interference in the operation of the Thai Police and of course all aspects of the political process including the monarchy.
To democratise Thailand it is sufficient and necessary to neuter the retired and active generals.
Without the existence of the military in Thai society other problems would become the same as those in any society and amenable to normal political, social and policing solutions.
So, whats next for the Thai military? And how will it be achieved?
I would like to repeat a comment in another thread that went almost unnoticed, but refers to the elephant in the room that people are afraid to acknowledge. “It is said that only a few words from the top many years ago were taken to heart by the royalists for an all-out war against Thaksin.” We may not know for years whether this is true or not, but it has a great deal of explanatory power, and for this reason I wouldn’t mind betting that it is true. That would mean that the King himself put in train the sequence of events that has left his country in such a miserable state. Being a determinist, I am not charging him with moral responsibility for the tragedy, because its causes go back further than this. One of them is clearly the emergence of a somewhat unsavoury character as Prime Minister. Going back even further than that, is the moral climate in Thailand that causes, amongst other good and bad things, unsavoury characters to be welcomed in high positions (on both sides of the present political divide). The institution of monarchy in Thailand exists in that same moral climate. To invest one person with so much power is asking for trouble, even when the starting material is promising. We are all familiar with Lord Acton’s dictum “All power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. The King is a human being who has been subjected to a long lifetime of flattery and grovelling at levels that were bound to end in trouble for him and his country. The Thai monarchy has evolved into a monster with great power to do evil, even in the hands of one who was possibly (it is hard to tell) a better than average man. Thais secretly realise that the power of the monarchy is out of control, and shudder at the prospect of it passing into the hands of someone who is worse than average. I would argue that the Monster which corrupted the father in mid-life started on the son at birth, and he never had a chance.
Before the outrage starts, the point here is not to pass moral judgement on individuals, but to devise institutions that select better behaviour.
Putting down Thai people again? Today we learn they have short attention spans, their teachers are incompetent and Thailand needs to be westernised. How colonial of you.
It amuses me that you look for the rise of a charismatic and honest person on one hand, and condemn Abhisit with the other.
Did Downer preface his statements with the usual “I would never have said this while I was in government of course…” ?
Civil war or a break up of Thailand over this is not even remotely on the cards. Don’t take what red and yellow leaders say on stage too seriously, its 99% hot air and grandstanding.
Willfully or not (and I suspect the former) you are entirely missing my point.
It was my understanding that this forum was for academic discussion of issues in mainland Southeast Asia.
My only point is that it is entirely un-academic to suggest conjecture equals confirmation.
That’s it.
You are guilty of that wholly amateurish mistake three times already in this forum alone. (#10, #17 and #23)
Interestingly, in #3 you show that you are capable of holding unsupported assertions to account by asking Jim Taylor to provide a source for his comment on the Wallons. And I applaud you for your integrity here … I just think that you would have made yourself look less amateurish had you done the same for Suzie Wong.
Here, Chris Beale, let me save you the trouble: Suzie Wong, it would be a positive contribution to this debate, and would help us all move beyond hearsay, innuendo, and conjecture if you were able to provide some clear evidence to support your claim about who is the de facto power in Thailand.
Well, I guess that goes the same way with Abhisit now. On a side note, under current political structure, its very hard for someone to emerge as a asia statesmen.
Nigel – 42
Interesting point
“Red Shirts are actually a reactionary patronage network organised by regional strongmen who see the emerging middle class in Bangkok as a threat to their traditional power and access to state wealth through corruption”
One has to ask whether which came first, the emerging middle class in Bangkok or the emerging middle class in the provinces.
The only sensible thing is to continue with the ‘democratisation’ of Thailand.
The first thing necessary in deciding to get something better, is to recognise that what you have isn’t good enough.
It will take 3 generations to remove the culture of greng-jai, patronage and corruption from Thailand, at least to the level one normally finds in the west. This needs to be recognised.
It will take removal or retraining of 80% of teachers in Thailand because they are largely incompetent to teach.
It will take corrupt people to see the inside of a jail.
It will take the removal of Abhisist and everyone connected with his government because he/they are irredeemably tainted. I doubt Abhisit will be in power for 3 months more and I strongly suspect he will be dead by the end of the year. Live by the sword…
Unfortunately, it will take the king to die and quickly, probably not to be replaced with a monarch. The monarchy is tainted by their significant part in building the Thailand we see today. it is surely ironic than in attempting to carve out a place in history for himself, this king has probably destroyed any chance of the monarchy surviving in Thailand.
And lastly, it will take the rise of a charismatic and honest person to lead Thailand through the valley of the shadow of death. And enough people on his.her side to make a sustained recovery possible
Frankly, given the short attention-span of Thais and their inherent lack of respect for the rule of law (largely the result of observing that the law only serves a small group in society, and is negotiable depending upon who you are and who you know), I don’t think the Thais can do it. Really I just don’t think they are up to the job, the will isn’t there, the dedication isn’t there and the motivation isn’t there.
I fear Thailand is on its way back in time. I frankly doubt that Thailand will even exist in 20 years, but certainly as an economic force, it will probably be the same as Madagascar or Zimbabwe are now. And that’s before we consider what Chinese aspirations for the only non-socialist state on its borders.
Your are not making exactly the same point, you are making the opposite one.
I have said that Chakrism is a fundamentalist religion or cult that is the single largest barrier to returning Thailand to some form of normalcy, as defined by the economic and social platform Thais have had historically and how other successful countries in their peer group operate.
I am claiming that the red shirt movement has as a root the natural and righteous causes that the oppressed experience in any circumstance in which a dictatorship in its doomed attempts to survive increases the level of dominance it has had on all other entities in society (except in this case for the military and feudal elite who they have made deals with).
I have applied the Muslim analogy to the Chakrists who I have claimed are a fundamentalist cult, not to the red shirts.
We do agree that the reds have flaws, that they also are overly personality driven, and that Thaksin’s role is important and negative. But that seems to be it.
Regarding your 9/11, Bin Laden, Al Queda analogies, I agree with Jordon that they are ludicrous and crude. I would also consider adding disingenuous and malicious, but that would be speculation.
Don’t forget that under current condition where lese majeste law being use to suppress the open criticism of the beloved monarch, everyone in Thailand is forced to be a Bhumibolist.
The analogy with 9/11 is ludicrous, … and crule. 3000 innocent people died in WTC then – who many did in the “Thai (former) WTC? And how many at the hands of Thai military, on the order of the Thai “elite”?
The only thing that would make me change my mind from supporting the UDD protest/upprising of 2010 is if any sustance can be given to repeated claims that anti-Reds (Thai government, Thai media, some Western media) is the whole thing was masterminded by Thaksin, with orders which buildings to burn, orders for UDD snipers to shoot civilians, orders to provoke a massacre on the peaceful protesters by the military, so that a coup/revolution (I have read both versions) would take place to let him return. How credible is this?
Here is another analogy, more pertinant for the theme of this thread:
May 19 2010 – October 6 1976:
Major causes of protest: social injustice, fundamental non-democracy of Thailand (both cases)
Justification of crackdown/massacre/repression: “It is not a sin to kill communists” (1976) – “Put down the damn terrorists” (2010)
Trigger of hatred from the Thai populace: “They want to bring down the monarchy” (both cases)
Yes, there was not “Thaksin factor” in 1976. Also: 1976 was the beginning of long dark years for Thailand – I think we all hope that it will be different this time!
Please correct me if I am wrong, but you seem to see the Red Shirts as, to a large extent at least, a progressive grassroots movement motivated by the goal of a more egalitarian society, and pitted against a reactionary elite often referred to as the amartya. This is one hypothesis, and possibly the correct one. However, there are others. It could also be argued, for example, that the Red Shirts are actually a reactionary patronage network organised by regional strongmen who see the emerging middle class in Bangkok as a threat to their traditional power and access to state wealth through corruption. I am not entirely sure which of these competing hypotheses is nearer the truth, but having lived in Thailand for seventeen years and having observed the likes of Chalerm, Chavalit and Thaksin at close quarters with growing contempt well before the Red Shirts appeared, you will perhaps understand why I have a suspicion that the second hypothesis may turn out to be more accurate. I suppose my question, then, is this: Can anyone refute hypothesis number 2, that the Red’s are a reactionary patronage network?
LesAbbey:
You did?! (For Taksin to become the next LKY?)
I have to admit I enjoyed the election atmosphere that year, but certainly did not hope for that.
I believe Taksin and TRT ran a very organized campaign, but I was thinking whoever could beat that legitimately certainly has a great chance of becoming the next ‘asian statesman’. I didn’t think Taksin could make that cut for a multitude of reasons.
Do forgive me, but yes, you are mad to think he could keep his hands out of the pot – he got the likes of Newin and the CP to feed!
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What next for Thailand?
Interesting Bangkok Post article linked in the post by SmithJones – completely silent on the old man who is most responsible for all of this and according to an article in Asia Times http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE19Ae01.html forbade any amnesty for Thaksin.
On Bhumibolists and Royalists
@Rose:
“I can see that those white men who stick noses into Thai’s business ,and have tried to keep up do this stupid network with asshole Thaksin and his allies; you guys had better watch out your own domestic problems. White folks are just like the snakes spread world wild, especailly, those are waiting for a good time to jump into whenever see the chance. This’s call caucasian raptiles ! Go to fuck yourselves in hell !”
Nice.
Have a wander through downtown Bangkok. See all the nice buildings to western design? Paid for with western money.
See all the nice western dressed business folk?
See al the Thai hi-so wearing fashions the rest of the (western) world grew out of 40 years ago? Just discovered in Thailand.
See all the nice western-based businesses helping to enrich Thai ingrates like Rose?
See all the street signs, in Thai and in English?
See the results of Rose’s western fine education in her comments?
What would happen if western influence were to disappear overnight, western countries and the western people you hate stopped buying Thai rice and stopped coming to visit the Thai brothels you populate with the daughters of your uncared-for poor.
Thailand would return to the stone age Rose, so keep a civil tongue in your uneducated and foul-mouthed head.
Oh, and try to get a clue somewhere would you – if you aren;t sure where to get one, ask a farang.
New Mandala “temporarily curtailed”?
I have no problem accessing. I am — ironically enough — accessing from a wireless connection in a government office in rural Isaan. Once those IT boys catch up on their backlog of file checking I imagine some poor bureaucrat here will have some explaining to do.
20 May 1992
Calendars are very important in Thailand. Go into the homes of many ordinary Thais and you will find a calendar on the wall with the King’s portrait, or the King and Queen, or Princes Sirindhorn. No one else. Wonder if after May 19th this will change or remain the same….
What next for Thailand?
What next for the Thai military?
I think this is the key to the future of Thailand.
From the 1940’s the military has been the predominant tool for individuals and business families to secure their power. Now the military has grown so that like an octopus it contains the individuals and the businesses that are Thailand.
With 700 generals, retired and active military are entrenched in every aspect of legal and illegal business and hold the reins of power in every aspect of Thai society.
The military calls the shots, and noone can hold them accountable for any of those shots.
The military cause the divisions in Thai society, in the south, rich and poor, lowland and hilltribes, refugees, legal and illegal immigration, interference in the operation of the Thai Police and of course all aspects of the political process including the monarchy.
To democratise Thailand it is sufficient and necessary to neuter the retired and active generals.
Without the existence of the military in Thai society other problems would become the same as those in any society and amenable to normal political, social and policing solutions.
So, whats next for the Thai military? And how will it be achieved?
Commentary on roots of the Thai crisis
I would like to repeat a comment in another thread that went almost unnoticed, but refers to the elephant in the room that people are afraid to acknowledge. “It is said that only a few words from the top many years ago were taken to heart by the royalists for an all-out war against Thaksin.” We may not know for years whether this is true or not, but it has a great deal of explanatory power, and for this reason I wouldn’t mind betting that it is true. That would mean that the King himself put in train the sequence of events that has left his country in such a miserable state. Being a determinist, I am not charging him with moral responsibility for the tragedy, because its causes go back further than this. One of them is clearly the emergence of a somewhat unsavoury character as Prime Minister. Going back even further than that, is the moral climate in Thailand that causes, amongst other good and bad things, unsavoury characters to be welcomed in high positions (on both sides of the present political divide). The institution of monarchy in Thailand exists in that same moral climate. To invest one person with so much power is asking for trouble, even when the starting material is promising. We are all familiar with Lord Acton’s dictum “All power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”. The King is a human being who has been subjected to a long lifetime of flattery and grovelling at levels that were bound to end in trouble for him and his country. The Thai monarchy has evolved into a monster with great power to do evil, even in the hands of one who was possibly (it is hard to tell) a better than average man. Thais secretly realise that the power of the monarchy is out of control, and shudder at the prospect of it passing into the hands of someone who is worse than average. I would argue that the Monster which corrupted the father in mid-life started on the son at birth, and he never had a chance.
Before the outrage starts, the point here is not to pass moral judgement on individuals, but to devise institutions that select better behaviour.
What next for Thailand?
Morning Stuart
Putting down Thai people again? Today we learn they have short attention spans, their teachers are incompetent and Thailand needs to be westernised. How colonial of you.
It amuses me that you look for the rise of a charismatic and honest person on one hand, and condemn Abhisit with the other.
Former Australian Foreign Minister calls for new election in Thailand
Did Downer preface his statements with the usual “I would never have said this while I was in government of course…” ?
Civil war or a break up of Thailand over this is not even remotely on the cards. Don’t take what red and yellow leaders say on stage too seriously, its 99% hot air and grandstanding.
New Mandala “temporarily curtailed”?
Yesterday (Friday) there was 1 article I couldn’t access, but could access the main page.
London discussion of Thailand’s political turmoil
Chirs Beale #23
Willfully or not (and I suspect the former) you are entirely missing my point.
It was my understanding that this forum was for academic discussion of issues in mainland Southeast Asia.
My only point is that it is entirely un-academic to suggest conjecture equals confirmation.
That’s it.
You are guilty of that wholly amateurish mistake three times already in this forum alone. (#10, #17 and #23)
Interestingly, in #3 you show that you are capable of holding unsupported assertions to account by asking Jim Taylor to provide a source for his comment on the Wallons. And I applaud you for your integrity here … I just think that you would have made yourself look less amateurish had you done the same for Suzie Wong.
Here, Chris Beale, let me save you the trouble: Suzie Wong, it would be a positive contribution to this debate, and would help us all move beyond hearsay, innuendo, and conjecture if you were able to provide some clear evidence to support your claim about who is the de facto power in Thailand.
What next for Thailand?
I was amazed today, the Bangkok Post actually did an article that was not brazenly pro-government biased and anti-red.
Here is the link
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/178768/troubling-questions-after-operation-ratchaprasong
Whatever next, Yellow ASTV to be taken off air due to the 90% of lies it spews out ?
I would imagine the Bangkok Post might get into trouble reporting something unbiased like this (sic).
Too many eggs in the royal basket
Nuomi – 24
“he got the likes of Newin and the CP to feed!”
Well, I guess that goes the same way with Abhisit now. On a side note, under current political structure, its very hard for someone to emerge as a asia statesmen.
Commentary on roots of the Thai crisis
Nigel – 42
Interesting point
“Red Shirts are actually a reactionary patronage network organised by regional strongmen who see the emerging middle class in Bangkok as a threat to their traditional power and access to state wealth through corruption”
One has to ask whether which came first, the emerging middle class in Bangkok or the emerging middle class in the provinces.
New Mandala “temporarily curtailed”?
Blocked on CSLoxinfo.
BkkReader, Pantip forum shut itself down voluntarily a while back because its board had degenerated into competing streams of abuse. Will be back.
What next for Thailand?
The only sensible thing is to continue with the ‘democratisation’ of Thailand.
The first thing necessary in deciding to get something better, is to recognise that what you have isn’t good enough.
It will take 3 generations to remove the culture of greng-jai, patronage and corruption from Thailand, at least to the level one normally finds in the west. This needs to be recognised.
It will take removal or retraining of 80% of teachers in Thailand because they are largely incompetent to teach.
It will take corrupt people to see the inside of a jail.
It will take the removal of Abhisist and everyone connected with his government because he/they are irredeemably tainted. I doubt Abhisit will be in power for 3 months more and I strongly suspect he will be dead by the end of the year. Live by the sword…
Unfortunately, it will take the king to die and quickly, probably not to be replaced with a monarch. The monarchy is tainted by their significant part in building the Thailand we see today. it is surely ironic than in attempting to carve out a place in history for himself, this king has probably destroyed any chance of the monarchy surviving in Thailand.
And lastly, it will take the rise of a charismatic and honest person to lead Thailand through the valley of the shadow of death. And enough people on his.her side to make a sustained recovery possible
Frankly, given the short attention-span of Thais and their inherent lack of respect for the rule of law (largely the result of observing that the law only serves a small group in society, and is negotiable depending upon who you are and who you know), I don’t think the Thais can do it. Really I just don’t think they are up to the job, the will isn’t there, the dedication isn’t there and the motivation isn’t there.
I fear Thailand is on its way back in time. I frankly doubt that Thailand will even exist in 20 years, but certainly as an economic force, it will probably be the same as Madagascar or Zimbabwe are now. And that’s before we consider what Chinese aspirations for the only non-socialist state on its borders.
On Bhumibolists and Royalists
Del,
Your are not making exactly the same point, you are making the opposite one.
I have said that Chakrism is a fundamentalist religion or cult that is the single largest barrier to returning Thailand to some form of normalcy, as defined by the economic and social platform Thais have had historically and how other successful countries in their peer group operate.
I am claiming that the red shirt movement has as a root the natural and righteous causes that the oppressed experience in any circumstance in which a dictatorship in its doomed attempts to survive increases the level of dominance it has had on all other entities in society (except in this case for the military and feudal elite who they have made deals with).
I have applied the Muslim analogy to the Chakrists who I have claimed are a fundamentalist cult, not to the red shirts.
We do agree that the reds have flaws, that they also are overly personality driven, and that Thaksin’s role is important and negative. But that seems to be it.
Regarding your 9/11, Bin Laden, Al Queda analogies, I agree with Jordon that they are ludicrous and crude. I would also consider adding disingenuous and malicious, but that would be speculation.
On Bhumibolists and Royalists
Don’t forget that under current condition where lese majeste law being use to suppress the open criticism of the beloved monarch, everyone in Thailand is forced to be a Bhumibolist.
On Bhumibolists and Royalists
The analogy with 9/11 is ludicrous, … and crule. 3000 innocent people died in WTC then – who many did in the “Thai (former) WTC? And how many at the hands of Thai military, on the order of the Thai “elite”?
The only thing that would make me change my mind from supporting the UDD protest/upprising of 2010 is if any sustance can be given to repeated claims that anti-Reds (Thai government, Thai media, some Western media) is the whole thing was masterminded by Thaksin, with orders which buildings to burn, orders for UDD snipers to shoot civilians, orders to provoke a massacre on the peaceful protesters by the military, so that a coup/revolution (I have read both versions) would take place to let him return. How credible is this?
Here is another analogy, more pertinant for the theme of this thread:
May 19 2010 – October 6 1976:
Major causes of protest: social injustice, fundamental non-democracy of Thailand (both cases)
Justification of crackdown/massacre/repression: “It is not a sin to kill communists” (1976) – “Put down the damn terrorists” (2010)
Trigger of hatred from the Thai populace: “They want to bring down the monarchy” (both cases)
Role of Palace: (at least) condoning the massacre
Outcome: official cover up, suppression – radicalization (of student movement, “red shirts”)
Yes, there was not “Thaksin factor” in 1976. Also: 1976 was the beginning of long dark years for Thailand – I think we all hope that it will be different this time!
Commentary on roots of the Thai crisis
Nich/Andrew,
Please correct me if I am wrong, but you seem to see the Red Shirts as, to a large extent at least, a progressive grassroots movement motivated by the goal of a more egalitarian society, and pitted against a reactionary elite often referred to as the amartya. This is one hypothesis, and possibly the correct one. However, there are others. It could also be argued, for example, that the Red Shirts are actually a reactionary patronage network organised by regional strongmen who see the emerging middle class in Bangkok as a threat to their traditional power and access to state wealth through corruption. I am not entirely sure which of these competing hypotheses is nearer the truth, but having lived in Thailand for seventeen years and having observed the likes of Chalerm, Chavalit and Thaksin at close quarters with growing contempt well before the Red Shirts appeared, you will perhaps understand why I have a suspicion that the second hypothesis may turn out to be more accurate. I suppose my question, then, is this: Can anyone refute hypothesis number 2, that the Red’s are a reactionary patronage network?
Too many eggs in the royal basket
LesAbbey:
You did?! (For Taksin to become the next LKY?)
I have to admit I enjoyed the election atmosphere that year, but certainly did not hope for that.
I believe Taksin and TRT ran a very organized campaign, but I was thinking whoever could beat that legitimately certainly has a great chance of becoming the next ‘asian statesman’. I didn’t think Taksin could make that cut for a multitude of reasons.
Do forgive me, but yes, you are mad to think he could keep his hands out of the pot – he got the likes of Newin and the CP to feed!