>Now it has to be said that Abhisit is caught between a rock and hard place.
Then you go back to the negotiating table.
From the governments point of view, at every point, military escalation will seem like an easier option then negotiating, and no doubt the government hopes that shooting a few hard liners will squeeze the protestors and somehow create some opportunities so that a solution can somehow emerge.
But and military escalation doesn’t create opportunities, it shuts them down. It empowers the opposition hard liners, marginalises the moderates, and generates resentment that makes negotiations much harder.
Now a good part of the Thai upper classes think the lower classes and red factions just need to be shown by force that they can’t go against the social order and somehow they will snap out of it and the status quo returned. But this is a very na├пve but common view of how the world works. At the end of the day some settlement that all sides can live with will have to be found and if the status quo was it then there wouldn’t be any protests.
The government has made a mistake that has greatly weakened its ability to resolve the crisis. There is always the hope in the opaque world of Thai politics something will be muddled out in the end and a larger crisis avoided. But this will take a lot longer now. Moving in to clear out the protestors by force will create a crisis that is probably not solvable for many years.
It really sickens me how the EU and the USA so far have not spoken out about the heavy handed murder and assasination that army snipers are perpetrating on civilians , many unarmed ,, and journalists.
But yet when it comes to places like Burma its a double standard.
This double standard I suppose is to maintain their business interests , and political influence in Thailand.
the link above is from a website/forum which calls up the Thai people to attack the army, start looting and burn government buildings.
They make extra income by GOOGLE ads and have been SMS ing people to click on the ads to support their fight
Hope that you stay away from the terrorist in future, people who are innocent stay away, only people looking for trouble roam the streets and are not innocent as soon as the start roaming ,fighting and looting
I think what he did was much more aggressive than openly ordering the army to attack and clear the red shirts from Rajprasong.
This Orwellian seizure of the media, the deliberate killings and their ruthless justification (in Nazi concentration camp style) and finally the claims of an anti monarchy plot – this is alltogether just vicous and evil.
Filming M16 with live rounds being fired at people on Rama 4. Firing right now in direction of unarmed protesters lighting tyres & f/works.
21 minutes ago via TweetDeck
@ Chris Beale. Although it is a taboo subject and almost certainly academic in nature, you raise an interesting point of what a theoretical redivision of Thailand would look like with a revived Lanna state, incorporating the Isaan provinces and a Siam incorporating the Central, Eastern and Southern provinces. Public finances of the landlocked Lanna state would be extremely tight, since the North and Northeastern provinces are net recipients of tax revenues by a large margin. This would be a challenging job for the finance minister but no doubt the president-for-life designate could raise some gilt edged Lanna securities on global roadshows to countries that will issue him a visa. It would also be interesting to see Lannanese citizens applying for work permits and competing with Burmese for unskilled jobs in Siam.
Reasonable and balanced overview, although I disagree with a few key points.
I don’t think Abhisit ever made an honest attempt at reconciliation. His non-negotiable “roadmap” (now retracted) had the single purpose of dividing and demoralizing the protesters. A sincere compromise would have involved a clear date for dissolution, prospect of amnesty for both reds and yellows and call for reconciliation and clean elections respected by all sides. Unfortunately, the sensible course of action looks too much like giving in to “extreme reds demands”.
You are correct that Abhisit did not rush to order wholesale slaughter. Not whether him, Anupong, or someone else deserve credit for that. However, gov’t made a series of blunders, shattering any semblance of trust at each step rather than trying to rebuild it through small steps. Even after April 10th, negotiations with the reds (led by Sukhumbhand) were making progress, before being called off by the gov’t.
Unfortunately, all that is now irrelevant.
The way for reds to disband and retreat peacefully is closed off. Army will eventually escalate and win the battle, at the cost of several hundred lives. What after that? To keep the lid on, there must be increasing repression, moving Thailand in the direction of Myanmar… but how far?
On the red side, will there be a continuing low-level insurgency with occasional attacks on government interests, or just simmering discontent which will boil over in a few years?
It looks like where we will be tomorrow is exactly where things are at today, continued turmoil and continued stalemate. And the same will be true for the day after and the day after that. So far it looks like the red shirt demonstrators outside of Rajaprasong have succeeded in setting up new barricaded rally points at Din Daeng and under the Expressway near Victory Monument. The government can’t even decide to impose a curfew, which would have been the first thing that most other governments would have done. There don’t seem to be enough troops in Bangkok to enforce the crackdown, but it is quite clear that there are many Army snipers out there in highrise buildings shooting people, and that is just insanity because it is such extremely bad press. Does Abhisit really expect to stay in power when all these images become widely seen, or does he really believe the MICT can suppress all the youtube postings? What is his long term strategy? It looks to me like he doesn’t have one, and he has once again underestimated the strength of the resistance against him.
There seem to be no shortage of red shirt reinforcements coming into Bangkok (I read a report last night of 500 coming from Phuket of all places!). A large contingent arrived at Din Daeng from Prathum Thani. How they are able to get through the roadblocks is an important question that needs to be answered. As I write this the TV coverage is showing tyre burning by red shirt demonstrators in Ubon Ratchatani. I understand they gave up their bridge closure, which was ostensibly to prevent troops from moving from Warin to the airport, so this seems like a minor action. I have read that there are closures of the railway planned. What is the disposition of the 3rd Army? Are they going to stay in their barracks? What’s going to happen to the police at the Lupini Park station that fired upon the troops? It just looks like chaos out there right now!
On an unrelated point, I dispute your claim that they never had more than 100,000 in the street at any one time. When the red shirts moved down Pratunam past Pantip Plaza to occupy the Rajaprasong intersection they had at least 250,000 supporters on the march that day.
On a second unrelated issue, the big unasked question on NM and elsewhere is why doesn’t HM the K step in to stop the killing? Everyone knows he could do it and he’s done it before. Most Thais I have talked to suspect that he doesn’t want to or no longer feels up to the task, and for some of those who believe the worse, that has diminished their respect for him.
An inevitable third factor is seemingly starting to emerge: Has anyone heard that the army since late last night has been engaged in open conflict among themselves (needs to be confirmed by first hand accounts and, if so, at which sites). Meanwhile Abhisit is declaring a curfew in BKK…The Butcher of Bangkok may have to keep the propaganda machinery grinding over soon with more fiction (how about bringing out the old favourite: blaming Thaksin!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuEMHeGxbuI
^^ Military sniper… not shooting to kill… 1:11 Standing solider “Already Toppled”.. They aimed at legs.. as same as above clip.”
and here is some questions:-
1. Why the Red didn’t accept the PM’s road map? I’m Thai and I think it is very fair for everyone included me and no color people.
2. If bare hand people protect the terrorists as you can see in many clip, how the UN or any international org deal with them?
3. If the PM dissolve the parliament as request, Thailand will stuck in the protest-dissolve cycle.
4. This government is absolutely lawful. I have no idea why lawful one have to surrender the terrorist back-up one.
Nick – I agree with Max @34 above.
I’d add this – compared to your previous reports, this time what you’ve written seems substantially better than the photos you’ve taken.
Was there a reason for this ?
Was photographing this time harder / more difficult than say during the Songkran riots ?
The Bangkok Post of today quotes Abhisit as having said in his TV address of yesterday:
“Losses will have to be endured. It is the only way to righteousness.”
When Somchai Wongsawat’s actions as prime minister led to the death of two PAD protesters in October 2008, Abhisit sounded very much different (according to Matichon Weekend, 23-29 April 2010:9):
“Regarding the entire incident, the prime minister cannot reject being responsible for not performing his duties, or for intending that this incident would occur. But what is worse is to blame the officials, that is, to slander the people. I could not think or dream that we would have a state that does harm to the people, even including deaths and severe injuries, and still have a state that even shifts responsibility to the people. This behavior is unacceptable.
I have heard the government asking this or that person whether they were Thai or not. But regarding your [Somchai Wongsawat] behavior, are you a Thai or not? Are you human or not? Today, politically, your legitimacy is gone already. We demand that the prime minister shows responsibility.” Abhisit referred to resignation or the dissolution of parliament. If Somchai remained idle, this would do harm to the country, and to the political system.
“There is no democratic political system in this world in which the people are harmed by the state, but the government that came from the people does not show responsibility. … Even if the PAD had done something wrong, the government had no right to do harm to the people.”
When the reporters asked Abhisit at that time how come that there could be such a big crisis, while the PM could still remain in office, Abhisit briefly but clearly answered:
“I cannot answer this. I have never been such a person. The normal human beings that I know are not of this kind.”
The paper concludes, “Abhisit’s words in the past and his actions in the present are totally opposite.”
Remember their are two sides to every coin. (Here’s what you need to know about the rural have-nots of Thailand.) Does not explain both sides very well, One can not call Rural Thailand middle class. yes have a look at the farms and homes they have. the majority of all them homes and farm land was not purchased buy the current owners but was all hand me downs as the family grows. As more and more offsprings come of age the family farm is further divided into smaller and smaller plots. Them plots of land started out many years ago as people squatting on large areas of land. Middle class, I think not!.
Another point worth mentioning is, as this country is so Thai divided Red vs. Yellow it is just as divided amongst the Expat community Not in the way of expats putting on red or yellow shirts but in the type they type on the Internet such as (They are the richest poor people in the Third World.) The statement has nothing to do with the current Thai Crisis.
The expat community should take a serious look at the way the yellow events are played out and the messages behind them. some players in the pad have evan openly voiced they want the farangs out of Thailand. Closing airports tells farangs do not come to Thailand. Closing so called visa loopholes tells farangs to go away. Closing free trade talks with the U.S. says we not want farang. Using tanks, live ammunition, snipers and full military force against its citizens is a sure way of saying farang come to Thailand at your own risk. you get the point!
Reading some recent history about Thailand’s (Democratic) political issues reminds me of a bunch of unsupervised children that will never have the ability to govern themselves peacefully.
(BTW) about the refrigerators, most rural village families cannot afford the electricity to run them things so they use them as a dry storage box.
The previous two administrations came to power in the same way as the present one – no red shirts complained then. The last, thankfully brief government headed by Taksins brother-in-law (what a surprise) wasn’t elected – no red shirts protested then. This is all about one man determined to become Thailands first President for Life. He has no respect for the King, despite what he says, he has no love or concern for the innocent people he is making suffer. This present Government should have moved quicker to end the demonstrations. However, they have been hampered by various factions of the military who have their own agenda. Now people are realising that 500 baht a day isn’t worth getting killed for.
Get rid of the guy in Dubai “dying in the desert”, all this will end.
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A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
More “live rounds” being fired at anyone and everything.
http://twitter.com/photo_journ
Flasbangs incoming. Hiding behind laundry rack. F*ck that was close. Live rounds in coming
15 minutes ago via Seesmic
Army peppering 1st tire barricade. #redshirts pinned
26 minutes ago via Seesmic
A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
>Now it has to be said that Abhisit is caught between a rock and hard place.
Then you go back to the negotiating table.
From the governments point of view, at every point, military escalation will seem like an easier option then negotiating, and no doubt the government hopes that shooting a few hard liners will squeeze the protestors and somehow create some opportunities so that a solution can somehow emerge.
But and military escalation doesn’t create opportunities, it shuts them down. It empowers the opposition hard liners, marginalises the moderates, and generates resentment that makes negotiations much harder.
Now a good part of the Thai upper classes think the lower classes and red factions just need to be shown by force that they can’t go against the social order and somehow they will snap out of it and the status quo returned. But this is a very na├пve but common view of how the world works. At the end of the day some settlement that all sides can live with will have to be found and if the status quo was it then there wouldn’t be any protests.
The government has made a mistake that has greatly weakened its ability to resolve the crisis. There is always the hope in the opaque world of Thai politics something will be muddled out in the end and a larger crisis avoided. But this will take a lot longer now. Moving in to clear out the protestors by force will create a crisis that is probably not solvable for many years.
A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
It really sickens me how the EU and the USA so far have not spoken out about the heavy handed murder and assasination that army snipers are perpetrating on civilians , many unarmed ,, and journalists.
But yet when it comes to places like Burma its a double standard.
This double standard I suppose is to maintain their business interests , and political influence in Thailand.
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
http://www.saedang.freeforums.org/topic-t2080.html
the link above is from a website/forum which calls up the Thai people to attack the army, start looting and burn government buildings.
They make extra income by GOOGLE ads and have been SMS ing people to click on the ads to support their fight
Hope that you stay away from the terrorist in future, people who are innocent stay away, only people looking for trouble roam the streets and are not innocent as soon as the start roaming ,fighting and looting
A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
I think what he did was much more aggressive than openly ordering the army to attack and clear the red shirts from Rajprasong.
This Orwellian seizure of the media, the deliberate killings and their ruthless justification (in Nazi concentration camp style) and finally the claims of an anti monarchy plot – this is alltogether just vicous and evil.
Bangkok at war
BBC’s Alastair Leithead filming soldiers firing live ammo at unarmed protestors.
Explain that one away Abhisit and cronies.
http://twitter.com/aleithead
Filming M16 with live rounds being fired at people on Rama 4. Firing right now in direction of unarmed protesters lighting tyres & f/works.
21 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
You’re a hero Nick
Video of Thailand on the Verge
i’am thai people but i’m not innocent ,Hana you can’t say thai people innocent ,sorry about my English.
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
@ Chris Beale. Although it is a taboo subject and almost certainly academic in nature, you raise an interesting point of what a theoretical redivision of Thailand would look like with a revived Lanna state, incorporating the Isaan provinces and a Siam incorporating the Central, Eastern and Southern provinces. Public finances of the landlocked Lanna state would be extremely tight, since the North and Northeastern provinces are net recipients of tax revenues by a large margin. This would be a challenging job for the finance minister but no doubt the president-for-life designate could raise some gilt edged Lanna securities on global roadshows to countries that will issue him a visa. It would also be interesting to see Lannanese citizens applying for work permits and competing with Burmese for unskilled jobs in Siam.
Bangkok at war
Does anyone have any info about what is going on upcountry? Are protests forming in the provinces under the emergency decree?
A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
Reasonable and balanced overview, although I disagree with a few key points.
I don’t think Abhisit ever made an honest attempt at reconciliation. His non-negotiable “roadmap” (now retracted) had the single purpose of dividing and demoralizing the protesters. A sincere compromise would have involved a clear date for dissolution, prospect of amnesty for both reds and yellows and call for reconciliation and clean elections respected by all sides. Unfortunately, the sensible course of action looks too much like giving in to “extreme reds demands”.
You are correct that Abhisit did not rush to order wholesale slaughter. Not whether him, Anupong, or someone else deserve credit for that. However, gov’t made a series of blunders, shattering any semblance of trust at each step rather than trying to rebuild it through small steps. Even after April 10th, negotiations with the reds (led by Sukhumbhand) were making progress, before being called off by the gov’t.
Unfortunately, all that is now irrelevant.
The way for reds to disband and retreat peacefully is closed off. Army will eventually escalate and win the battle, at the cost of several hundred lives. What after that? To keep the lid on, there must be increasing repression, moving Thailand in the direction of Myanmar… but how far?
On the red side, will there be a continuing low-level insurgency with occasional attacks on government interests, or just simmering discontent which will boil over in a few years?
Bangkok at war
I see SmithJones twitter comments have received 1 red thumbs down.
So, who ever you are, would you like to comment openly on the forum and explain why shooting at medics and civilians is, in your opinion, ok?
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
thanks for the great reporting the world must know whats going on i am so shocked!! bless bangkok hope it ends soon, you are a brave man
A Sunday morning look at Bangkok
It looks like where we will be tomorrow is exactly where things are at today, continued turmoil and continued stalemate. And the same will be true for the day after and the day after that. So far it looks like the red shirt demonstrators outside of Rajaprasong have succeeded in setting up new barricaded rally points at Din Daeng and under the Expressway near Victory Monument. The government can’t even decide to impose a curfew, which would have been the first thing that most other governments would have done. There don’t seem to be enough troops in Bangkok to enforce the crackdown, but it is quite clear that there are many Army snipers out there in highrise buildings shooting people, and that is just insanity because it is such extremely bad press. Does Abhisit really expect to stay in power when all these images become widely seen, or does he really believe the MICT can suppress all the youtube postings? What is his long term strategy? It looks to me like he doesn’t have one, and he has once again underestimated the strength of the resistance against him.
There seem to be no shortage of red shirt reinforcements coming into Bangkok (I read a report last night of 500 coming from Phuket of all places!). A large contingent arrived at Din Daeng from Prathum Thani. How they are able to get through the roadblocks is an important question that needs to be answered. As I write this the TV coverage is showing tyre burning by red shirt demonstrators in Ubon Ratchatani. I understand they gave up their bridge closure, which was ostensibly to prevent troops from moving from Warin to the airport, so this seems like a minor action. I have read that there are closures of the railway planned. What is the disposition of the 3rd Army? Are they going to stay in their barracks? What’s going to happen to the police at the Lupini Park station that fired upon the troops? It just looks like chaos out there right now!
On an unrelated point, I dispute your claim that they never had more than 100,000 in the street at any one time. When the red shirts moved down Pratunam past Pantip Plaza to occupy the Rajaprasong intersection they had at least 250,000 supporters on the march that day.
On a second unrelated issue, the big unasked question on NM and elsewhere is why doesn’t HM the K step in to stop the killing? Everyone knows he could do it and he’s done it before. Most Thais I have talked to suspect that he doesn’t want to or no longer feels up to the task, and for some of those who believe the worse, that has diminished their respect for him.
Bangkok at war
An inevitable third factor is seemingly starting to emerge: Has anyone heard that the army since late last night has been engaged in open conflict among themselves (needs to be confirmed by first hand accounts and, if so, at which sites). Meanwhile Abhisit is declaring a curfew in BKK…The Butcher of Bangkok may have to keep the propaganda machinery grinding over soon with more fiction (how about bringing out the old favourite: blaming Thaksin!)
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
I just love this
“http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_xg0l6-oHY
^^ black shirt with military gun appears around 0.50
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hmSPbugDAA
^^ M79 shooter from artificial Red shirts?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21MjSONuht8
^^ Sniper protects the truck’s fuel tank by aiming at leg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuEMHeGxbuI
^^ Military sniper… not shooting to kill… 1:11 Standing solider “Already Toppled”.. They aimed at legs.. as same as above clip.”
and here is some questions:-
1. Why the Red didn’t accept the PM’s road map? I’m Thai and I think it is very fair for everyone included me and no color people.
2. If bare hand people protect the terrorists as you can see in many clip, how the UN or any international org deal with them?
3. If the PM dissolve the parliament as request, Thailand will stuck in the protest-dissolve cycle.
4. This government is absolutely lawful. I have no idea why lawful one have to surrender the terrorist back-up one.
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
Nick – I agree with Max @34 above.
I’d add this – compared to your previous reports, this time what you’ve written seems substantially better than the photos you’ve taken.
Was there a reason for this ?
Was photographing this time harder / more difficult than say during the Songkran riots ?
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
The Bangkok Post of today quotes Abhisit as having said in his TV address of yesterday:
“Losses will have to be endured. It is the only way to righteousness.”
When Somchai Wongsawat’s actions as prime minister led to the death of two PAD protesters in October 2008, Abhisit sounded very much different (according to Matichon Weekend, 23-29 April 2010:9):
“Regarding the entire incident, the prime minister cannot reject being responsible for not performing his duties, or for intending that this incident would occur. But what is worse is to blame the officials, that is, to slander the people. I could not think or dream that we would have a state that does harm to the people, even including deaths and severe injuries, and still have a state that even shifts responsibility to the people. This behavior is unacceptable.
I have heard the government asking this or that person whether they were Thai or not. But regarding your [Somchai Wongsawat] behavior, are you a Thai or not? Are you human or not? Today, politically, your legitimacy is gone already. We demand that the prime minister shows responsibility.” Abhisit referred to resignation or the dissolution of parliament. If Somchai remained idle, this would do harm to the country, and to the political system.
“There is no democratic political system in this world in which the people are harmed by the state, but the government that came from the people does not show responsibility. … Even if the PAD had done something wrong, the government had no right to do harm to the people.”
When the reporters asked Abhisit at that time how come that there could be such a big crisis, while the PM could still remain in office, Abhisit briefly but clearly answered:
“I cannot answer this. I have never been such a person. The normal human beings that I know are not of this kind.”
The paper concludes, “Abhisit’s words in the past and his actions in the present are totally opposite.”
The rebellion of Thailand’s middle-income peasants
Remember their are two sides to every coin. (Here’s what you need to know about the rural have-nots of Thailand.) Does not explain both sides very well, One can not call Rural Thailand middle class. yes have a look at the farms and homes they have. the majority of all them homes and farm land was not purchased buy the current owners but was all hand me downs as the family grows. As more and more offsprings come of age the family farm is further divided into smaller and smaller plots. Them plots of land started out many years ago as people squatting on large areas of land. Middle class, I think not!.
Another point worth mentioning is, as this country is so Thai divided Red vs. Yellow it is just as divided amongst the Expat community Not in the way of expats putting on red or yellow shirts but in the type they type on the Internet such as (They are the richest poor people in the Third World.) The statement has nothing to do with the current Thai Crisis.
The expat community should take a serious look at the way the yellow events are played out and the messages behind them. some players in the pad have evan openly voiced they want the farangs out of Thailand. Closing airports tells farangs do not come to Thailand. Closing so called visa loopholes tells farangs to go away. Closing free trade talks with the U.S. says we not want farang. Using tanks, live ammunition, snipers and full military force against its citizens is a sure way of saying farang come to Thailand at your own risk. you get the point!
Reading some recent history about Thailand’s (Democratic) political issues reminds me of a bunch of unsupervised children that will never have the ability to govern themselves peacefully.
(BTW) about the refrigerators, most rural village families cannot afford the electricity to run them things so they use them as a dry storage box.
Nick Nostitz in the killing zone
The previous two administrations came to power in the same way as the present one – no red shirts complained then. The last, thankfully brief government headed by Taksins brother-in-law (what a surprise) wasn’t elected – no red shirts protested then. This is all about one man determined to become Thailands first President for Life. He has no respect for the King, despite what he says, he has no love or concern for the innocent people he is making suffer. This present Government should have moved quicker to end the demonstrations. However, they have been hampered by various factions of the military who have their own agenda. Now people are realising that 500 baht a day isn’t worth getting killed for.
Get rid of the guy in Dubai “dying in the desert”, all this will end.