George J says: “However, one day’s crowd statistics or sideline cheering section isn’t the determinant of a movement’s significance, or even the depth of its support.
As I already stated, both movements also inspire a lot of loathing from many quarters…..”
I fully agree with the first paragraph — the best way to judge this popularity contest is how many seats Pheu Thai and New Politics Party will get at the next election. If Sonthi’s party can beat Pheu Thai, New Mandala should then perhaps invite him to be honorary editor!
The current mood looks like the yellow shirts are loathed more as can be seen from the fact that only few souls dare to wear yellow these days because people don’t want to be identified with those who seized the Govt House and the two airports. Sonthi himself preferred to wear light green when he launched his New Politics Party.
Further to Tarrin at 54: ‘What goes around comes around’
Democracy is a means of reaching a political accommodation between groups holding diverse political views, if not beliefs.
The current constitution (n.b. approved, albeit narrowly, by popular referendum) re-set the rules of the game.
Throughout his years in power, both as PM and then ruling from behind the scenes through his proxy PMs, ‘Samak the Outlaw’ and ‘Somchai the Inlaw’, Thaksin arrogantly flouted the will of the people (as well as the law in general) enshrined in the previous 1997 Constitution and the rules of the game therein.
His very unwise decision not to compromise with those hundreds of thousands of demonstrators representing all those appalled at his unbending efforts to, as you put it yourself, “monopolize political power”, gave the military all the reason it needed after six years of Thaksin’s “ugly crony capitalism” to call ‘Game Over’.
In my opinion, the best way forward is not to try and monopolize political power under the self-serving justification of needing 78% or so of the vote to ensure strong government (as Thaksin continues to argue, I presume because he would, once more, like to be immune to parliamentary censure and return to ‘business as usual’) but to work with what we have intelligently by providing both the necessary political stability and the appropriate ‘carrots and sticks’ to curtail military influence in both politics and business over the medium term to long term. Mutual trust is the key: as we have seen before, if trust (or at least patience) in democratic institutions and processes is sufficiently eroded, a coup will remain a real possibility.
However, even if Thaksin’s frequent exhortations for a “revolution” succeed in returning him or new Thaksin proxies to power (none of the Red Shirt leaders have publicly dissociated themselves from him – yet – as far as I know) I believe that trust will remain the decisive factor in determining which political grouping will ultimately prevail.
As things stand today, trust in Thaksin continues to decline while trust in Abhisit continues to grow.
Mungo Gubbins – well there are some that might be considered as “rich” revolutionist for sure but most of the well known name like Lenin or Robespierre were certainly from the upper middle class where both went to college to study law (Rovespierre was a professional lawyer) which was considered as privileged for their time. Even military commander like Atat├╝rk was actually came from a pretty wealthy background so no, I as far as I know there’s no one actually as rich as Thaksin but certainly not dirt poor either.
did you suddenly wake up that Thaksin matched your criteria?
so you had to scratch around to try to find something to exclude him?
and, do you realise that it is only you and a few others that actually believe that the “policy corruption” that has been invented around his actions is anything other than a desperate effort to find something to exclude him?
of course noone can prosecute him for the killings and other actions actually performed by the military under his watch… because for people like you the military can do no wrong…
Apparently you only understood half of what I said.
No, to monopolize political power is not “how ordinary parliamentary system works” (sic): it’s about an imperfect system of democratic checks and balances.
Re the Central Administrative Court: No – my suit was against King Prajadhipok Institute – nothing about Thaksin, and I never even implied that there was.
Re election: Like many, it seems you underestimate Abhisit – to your loss. His comments and moves this week have been calm, well-timed and constructive.
Yes, yes, Bh Varapanyo. And how about the political scientists, lawyers, human rights people, etc. In fact, lets get rid of all the academics. But lets leave those egotistical & narrowly educated western chaps who dress up in orange frocks and contribute so much to the Spiritual Tourism industry. Their amulets and platitudes are obviously much more valuable than the pursuit of knowledge. They won’t rock the boat!
Addendum: In addition to being an inspirational leader and a top-notch economic manager, this still-to-rise-still-to-show-himself ‘young charismatic leader’ who could end Thailand’s “the double standards in Thai society” must also be INCORRUPTIBLE.
That of course eliminates 60-year old Thaksin Shinawatra (definitely not young) despite his past and continuing ‘honest mistakes’.
Why should that still-to-rise-still-to-show-himself ‘young charismatic leader’ who could end Thailand’s “the double standards in Thai society” be the worst-case scenario? Could be THE godsend to Thailand this fellow if:
(a) he could firmly establish rule-of-law in Thailand;
(b) he could get the people to understand and obey a Thai constitution based on the strict tenets of rule-of-law, whether such constitution would be republican or with a monarchy, according to the people’s choice,
(c) he could provide the inspiration that could keep the Thai nation in harmony, giving real and visible hope/benefits to the underclass and rural poor while at the same supplying very astute economic direction to rapidly grow the Thai economy to gladden the hearts of the greedy Thai capitalists (happy NM?), and most importantly
(d) completely diminish the Thai military’s influence in Thailand’s governance (by judicially prosecuting the unusually very very rich among the military/police generals).
The bottom line of our demand is as simple as this–give us an election then respect the result no matter whoever wins. We wouldn’t mind Aphisit as a prime minister if he comes from the party with the largest amount of representatives in the house.
Let’s be honest here. Does anyone really believe that Aphisit and his party would be in power if they are not supported by Prem and the military? Stop being such hypocritical.
Yes, we don’t have much choice regarding the next group of prospective prime minister candidates. But we rather go with a not-so-good or even bad prime minister who we believe will serve us best and who is elected than the appointed one–either good or bad. Because we know we can always elect a new one next election. Isn’t this the beauty of democracy?
In my opinion, having an appointed prime minister is the same as having a king governing a country. When you get a good king like Bhumibhol, it’s great. But if not, what else can you do? Don’t get me wrong here. I love my king and the monarch. But my love has condition. The king and his family have to precise above the constitution and stay clear from politic.
“And no one seems to want to mention the significant numbers of Thais, probably the majority, whose feelings are essentially ‘a pox on both your houses.’”
Of course they won’t mention it George, neither side wants to let the majority get in the way of the great crusade for democracy 😉
“in the history of social movements, the simplistic “he’s rich so he can’t be a real supporter/leader of the downtrodden” is simply twaddle.”
Well Ralph, you’ve certainly got my interest. If you could give a few examples of mega-rich political strongmen who have lead successful ‘class wars’/social movements of the poor I would be grateful. I’m sure some exist, I just can’t think of any.
Isn’t ‘spectacular’ stretching it a bit for either the reds or the yellows? I made the point elsewhere that 400,000 (unsubsidized) protestors turned out in the UK for the countryside alliance march against the ban on fox-hunting (which was still banned). If the current deomstrations are truly is a crusade by the downtrodden majority, rather the political death throes of a bloodstained demagogue, couldn’t we expect a larger turnout than Barcelona FC will get tonight against Real Zaragoza?
I’ve seen the Yellows draw larger crowds and lots of support on the streets, particularly in 2006 before the advent of their “guards.” Even in 2008, I saw plenty of people on the streets cheering them on as they marched, despite the disruption of traffic, to my surprise.
However, one day’s crowd statistics or sideline cheering section isn’t the determinant of a movement’s significance, or even the depth of its support.
As I already stated, both movements also inspire a lot of loathing from many quarters.
And no one seems to want to mention the significant numbers of Thais, probably the majority, whose feelings are essentially ‘a pox on both your houses.’
Mung seems to have been imbibing of the Abhisit cordial. That’s exactly his point, and, apart from anything else, in the history of social movements, the simplistic “he’s rich so he can’t be a real supporter/leader of the downtrodden” is simply twaddle.
George Jetson must have one eye closed. The yellows had nothing as spectacular or as good-natured as this. Ask your boy Elroy.
There in my series and my comments I was claiming from my own experiences that the Burmese Army is in running drugs and here you are labeling me A Junta Apologist.
Wow, what the hell is going on?
You definitely have a serious grudge against me or it is just a pure hatred against another fellow Burmese who dare to speak his own bloody mind without fear.
I hope you still remember your bitter attacks on me after my U Thant Uprising article here on New Mandala in 2008. You even searched and pointed out Henry Soe Win’s U Thant Uprising article to prove that I was fast and loose with facts.
I know Ko Soe Win very well as he is living here in Australia and also his company used to buy machinery from our company. He posted my U Thant article on his web list server D4B (Democracy for Burma) recently and even told me that my article is the most detailed and practical account of events during that uprising among a few writings about that uprising.
We are now writing a book together to record the actual events of the U Thant Uprising as a sad part of the history of Burma for posterity.
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The “worst-case scenario”
60 years, thats just the age when Prem started to be influential for the next 30 years…
The Devil’s Discus – in Thai
Hi,
Can any one tell me where can I get the book “The Devil`s Discus” in Englisch version in Germany or in England?
Thanks.
Translation of The Economist on succession
what’s funny is only the liberal thai homepage is blocked, it seems, not the article itself; they do the same with ji’s blog … sad thailand:(
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
George J says: “However, one day’s crowd statistics or sideline cheering section isn’t the determinant of a movement’s significance, or even the depth of its support.
As I already stated, both movements also inspire a lot of loathing from many quarters…..”
I fully agree with the first paragraph — the best way to judge this popularity contest is how many seats Pheu Thai and New Politics Party will get at the next election. If Sonthi’s party can beat Pheu Thai, New Mandala should then perhaps invite him to be honorary editor!
The current mood looks like the yellow shirts are loathed more as can be seen from the fact that only few souls dare to wear yellow these days because people don’t want to be identified with those who seized the Govt House and the two airports. Sonthi himself preferred to wear light green when he launched his New Politics Party.
Thai style democracy?
Further to Tarrin at 54: ‘What goes around comes around’
Democracy is a means of reaching a political accommodation between groups holding diverse political views, if not beliefs.
The current constitution (n.b. approved, albeit narrowly, by popular referendum) re-set the rules of the game.
Throughout his years in power, both as PM and then ruling from behind the scenes through his proxy PMs, ‘Samak the Outlaw’ and ‘Somchai the Inlaw’, Thaksin arrogantly flouted the will of the people (as well as the law in general) enshrined in the previous 1997 Constitution and the rules of the game therein.
His very unwise decision not to compromise with those hundreds of thousands of demonstrators representing all those appalled at his unbending efforts to, as you put it yourself, “monopolize political power”, gave the military all the reason it needed after six years of Thaksin’s “ugly crony capitalism” to call ‘Game Over’.
In my opinion, the best way forward is not to try and monopolize political power under the self-serving justification of needing 78% or so of the vote to ensure strong government (as Thaksin continues to argue, I presume because he would, once more, like to be immune to parliamentary censure and return to ‘business as usual’) but to work with what we have intelligently by providing both the necessary political stability and the appropriate ‘carrots and sticks’ to curtail military influence in both politics and business over the medium term to long term. Mutual trust is the key: as we have seen before, if trust (or at least patience) in democratic institutions and processes is sufficiently eroded, a coup will remain a real possibility.
However, even if Thaksin’s frequent exhortations for a “revolution” succeed in returning him or new Thaksin proxies to power (none of the Red Shirt leaders have publicly dissociated themselves from him – yet – as far as I know) I believe that trust will remain the decisive factor in determining which political grouping will ultimately prevail.
As things stand today, trust in Thaksin continues to decline while trust in Abhisit continues to grow.
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
Mungo Gubbins – well there are some that might be considered as “rich” revolutionist for sure but most of the well known name like Lenin or Robespierre were certainly from the upper middle class where both went to college to study law (Rovespierre was a professional lawyer) which was considered as privileged for their time. Even military commander like Atat├╝rk was actually came from a pretty wealthy background so no, I as far as I know there’s no one actually as rich as Thaksin but certainly not dirt poor either.
The scourge of Burma, Part 4
“At least 5 Sydney cabbies are killed every year ”
I find this hard to believe.
The “worst-case scenario”
Vichai…
did you suddenly wake up that Thaksin matched your criteria?
so you had to scratch around to try to find something to exclude him?
and, do you realise that it is only you and a few others that actually believe that the “policy corruption” that has been invented around his actions is anything other than a desperate effort to find something to exclude him?
of course noone can prosecute him for the killings and other actions actually performed by the military under his watch… because for people like you the military can do no wrong…
The “worst-case scenario”
Vichai, They’d kill him, of course.
Thai style democracy?
Tarrin at 54:
Apparently you only understood half of what I said.
No, to monopolize political power is not “how ordinary parliamentary system works” (sic): it’s about an imperfect system of democratic checks and balances.
Re the Central Administrative Court: No – my suit was against King Prajadhipok Institute – nothing about Thaksin, and I never even implied that there was.
Re election: Like many, it seems you underestimate Abhisit – to your loss. His comments and moves this week have been calm, well-timed and constructive.
Keyes on Thailand’s blood protests
Yes, yes, Bh Varapanyo. And how about the political scientists, lawyers, human rights people, etc. In fact, lets get rid of all the academics. But lets leave those egotistical & narrowly educated western chaps who dress up in orange frocks and contribute so much to the Spiritual Tourism industry. Their amulets and platitudes are obviously much more valuable than the pursuit of knowledge. They won’t rock the boat!
The “worst-case scenario”
Addendum: In addition to being an inspirational leader and a top-notch economic manager, this still-to-rise-still-to-show-himself ‘young charismatic leader’ who could end Thailand’s “the double standards in Thai society” must also be INCORRUPTIBLE.
That of course eliminates 60-year old Thaksin Shinawatra (definitely not young) despite his past and continuing ‘honest mistakes’.
The “worst-case scenario”
Why should that still-to-rise-still-to-show-himself ‘young charismatic leader’ who could end Thailand’s “the double standards in Thai society” be the worst-case scenario? Could be THE godsend to Thailand this fellow if:
(a) he could firmly establish rule-of-law in Thailand;
(b) he could get the people to understand and obey a Thai constitution based on the strict tenets of rule-of-law, whether such constitution would be republican or with a monarchy, according to the people’s choice,
(c) he could provide the inspiration that could keep the Thai nation in harmony, giving real and visible hope/benefits to the underclass and rural poor while at the same supplying very astute economic direction to rapidly grow the Thai economy to gladden the hearts of the greedy Thai capitalists (happy NM?), and most importantly
(d) completely diminish the Thai military’s influence in Thailand’s governance (by judicially prosecuting the unusually very very rich among the military/police generals).
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
The bottom line of our demand is as simple as this–give us an election then respect the result no matter whoever wins. We wouldn’t mind Aphisit as a prime minister if he comes from the party with the largest amount of representatives in the house.
Let’s be honest here. Does anyone really believe that Aphisit and his party would be in power if they are not supported by Prem and the military? Stop being such hypocritical.
Yes, we don’t have much choice regarding the next group of prospective prime minister candidates. But we rather go with a not-so-good or even bad prime minister who we believe will serve us best and who is elected than the appointed one–either good or bad. Because we know we can always elect a new one next election. Isn’t this the beauty of democracy?
In my opinion, having an appointed prime minister is the same as having a king governing a country. When you get a good king like Bhumibhol, it’s great. But if not, what else can you do? Don’t get me wrong here. I love my king and the monarch. But my love has condition. The king and his family have to precise above the constitution and stay clear from politic.
Red shirts and civil disobedience
thanks a lot Nick Nostitz
i became your fanclub already .
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
“And no one seems to want to mention the significant numbers of Thais, probably the majority, whose feelings are essentially ‘a pox on both your houses.’”
Of course they won’t mention it George, neither side wants to let the majority get in the way of the great crusade for democracy 😉
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
“in the history of social movements, the simplistic “he’s rich so he can’t be a real supporter/leader of the downtrodden” is simply twaddle.”
Well Ralph, you’ve certainly got my interest. If you could give a few examples of mega-rich political strongmen who have lead successful ‘class wars’/social movements of the poor I would be grateful. I’m sure some exist, I just can’t think of any.
Isn’t ‘spectacular’ stretching it a bit for either the reds or the yellows? I made the point elsewhere that 400,000 (unsubsidized) protestors turned out in the UK for the countryside alliance march against the ban on fox-hunting (which was still banned). If the current deomstrations are truly is a crusade by the downtrodden majority, rather the political death throes of a bloodstained demagogue, couldn’t we expect a larger turnout than Barcelona FC will get tonight against Real Zaragoza?
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
I’ve seen the Yellows draw larger crowds and lots of support on the streets, particularly in 2006 before the advent of their “guards.” Even in 2008, I saw plenty of people on the streets cheering them on as they marched, despite the disruption of traffic, to my surprise.
However, one day’s crowd statistics or sideline cheering section isn’t the determinant of a movement’s significance, or even the depth of its support.
As I already stated, both movements also inspire a lot of loathing from many quarters.
And no one seems to want to mention the significant numbers of Thais, probably the majority, whose feelings are essentially ‘a pox on both your houses.’
Support for Reds from Bangkok at large
Mung seems to have been imbibing of the Abhisit cordial. That’s exactly his point, and, apart from anything else, in the history of social movements, the simplistic “he’s rich so he can’t be a real supporter/leader of the downtrodden” is simply twaddle.
George Jetson must have one eye closed. The yellows had nothing as spectacular or as good-natured as this. Ask your boy Elroy.
The scourge of Burma, Part 3
Moe Aung,
There in my series and my comments I was claiming from my own experiences that the Burmese Army is in running drugs and here you are labeling me A Junta Apologist.
Wow, what the hell is going on?
You definitely have a serious grudge against me or it is just a pure hatred against another fellow Burmese who dare to speak his own bloody mind without fear.
I hope you still remember your bitter attacks on me after my U Thant Uprising article here on New Mandala in 2008. You even searched and pointed out Henry Soe Win’s U Thant Uprising article to prove that I was fast and loose with facts.
I know Ko Soe Win very well as he is living here in Australia and also his company used to buy machinery from our company. He posted my U Thant article on his web list server D4B (Democracy for Burma) recently and even told me that my article is the most detailed and practical account of events during that uprising among a few writings about that uprising.
We are now writing a book together to record the actual events of the U Thant Uprising as a sad part of the history of Burma for posterity.