The Red Shirt movement could suffer the same disintegration too if Abhisit goverment could hold on to power a little while longer, say one or two years from now.
Could the apparent wane in PAD ‘enthusiasm’ be partly attributed to the successes they have already achieved (Thaksin out, Democrats in)?
As for the ‘reds’, there is also the possibility that the longer the Abhisit government stays in place, the longer the reds will be able to hold together
(we have seen with the PAD how hatred of a common enemy is a strong unifying force)
At the moment, on the previously, strongly pro-PAD webboard called “Seri Thai on the Web”, fiece in-fighting has broken out (over rather trivial matters, like money, etc.). I think this’s just one example of waning integration among PAD supporters.
The Red Shirt movement could suffer the same disintegration too if Abhisit goverment could hold on to power a little while longer, say one or two years from now. But at the moment they still have stronger ‘motive’ to unite. (But even they too already show some sign of internal conflicts over what to do next. One issue currently emergin is whether to boycott the next general elections, belived to be coming soon.)
I don’t think, in the Thai context, founding a party to fight for some vague ‘New Politics’ is a very strong motive to hold a big political movement together.
On 25 May, tens of thousands of PAD supporters assembled in the sports stadium of Thammasat University’s Rangsit campus
I enjoy reading this interesting report by Prof.Nelson a lot. But I’m afraid, regarding the PAD’s 2nd day rally at TU Ransit campus, the number of attendants wasn’t as that many as he suggests. The whole stadium has a full capacity of only 20,000, and it was visibly far from full. That the number was smaller than PAD sympathizers had hoped, was in fact one topic discussed among them on some webboards. They admitted that much themselves, but tried to explain in a numbers of way, for in stance, the later downpouring of rain, etc. This might partially be true. I think, however, that the lack of clear policies and direction, in contrast to the days of “Thaksin (or, Thaksin’s Nominees) Get Out!” campaign, must surely have contributed to the rather lame ‘show of force’, especially toward the end of the rally (around 22 pm. – crowd in early afternoon was noticably much bigger).
It’s really a tragedy for Thailand’s politics. After the incident, Pheu Thai Party’s MPs (secretly sponsored by the “corruptor”) has tried to discredit the government and distract by pushing them with stupid and unproven accusations, in which detail can be found in antipadshist’s comments. They don’t care how reasonable the accusations are because they are aware of their voters’ quality. They just say what they want to say. I’m personally jeolous of Americans, Australians, or Japanese: this kind of politician would not survive in your countries.
NM bookworms will be delighted to know that ‘Pridi by Pridi’ is available for download in PDF form from Pridi-Phoonsuk Banomyong new website @ http://www.pridi-phoonsuk.org It’s translated & with an introduction by Chris Baker & Pasuk Phongphaichit. And it’s FREE!!!
Good points, well argued with good factual back-up, Tom Hoy #47. Do you really think it’s just “The Nation’s flimsy reporting,” or is it a bit more shonky & sinister than that – an attempt to join in the process of deluding the public? It seems to me that this whole LM issue is being played along very similar lines, to persuade the public that there is an organised, and growing, conspiracy to overthrow ‘all that Thais hold dear ‘ – a bit like the ‘communists-under-the-bed’ stuff in Oz during the 50s, & McCarthyism in U.S.
BTW, Thai Netizen Network has a statement re. the cases of Suwitcha & Chiranuch (Prachatai moderator/Director), which includes the following: “As the cases are related to the right to hold opinion, political expression and press freedom, which are guaranteed under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, these cases are distinctive from other ordinary criminal offences and that deserve careful treatment with the consideration of human rights.”
– 26th May 2009 @ http://thainetizen.org/node/570
(Although the UDHR is not legally binding, Thailand was one of the 48 states to vote in the UN General Assembly for its adoption in 1948.)
In case anyone think I’m too biased in my judgement, let me add that during the PAD 193 days protest rally last year, I wathed their live broadcast everday, hours at time. And no matter severe criticism I had of their aims, methods, politics, etc., I always thought they provided quite ‘interesting show’ most of the time. But this 2-days ‘founding PAD party’ conference really lacked true passion, true political direction – and it showed in almost all aspects of the conference, from leaders’ speeches, to stage shows, to participants’ comments, etc. I also have the impression from reading comments on some webboards by PAD sympathizers that their enthusiasm wasn’t quite that great either.
I appreciate that Nick tries to be even-handed as much as possible in dealing with the PAD. But for me, frankly, the whole show/parade was so pretentious, so juvernile, a kind of ‘thrown-back’ to the PAD leaders and activists’ student days! It’s like watching the recent insipid “Chula-Thammasat Traditional Football Mactch’ parades. If anyone interested and can read Thai, here my take : http://www.sameskybooks.org/board/index.php?showtopic=31390&st=0
I do think their first day meeting was at least more interesting. I watched the live broadcast of the meeting all day, the whole 7-8 hours! But even this, I got the impression that it noticably lacked ‘fire’ or real passion, not least Sondhi himself (granted that he might not fully recover yet). It’s noticable that during their speeches both days, leading PADs used rather ‘cheap trick’ in the public rally speech handbook a lot more than they used to. (E.g. asking audience to shout some slogan, or ‘yes’/’no’ responses. This’s a sure sign of the lack of much substance in the speeches.)
For my take on the first day (in Thai), see http://www.sameskybooks.org/board/index.php?showtopic=31324&st=0
I have to disagree there. Many believe that Sondhi is just in for the money and his own advantage. That may have been the initial reason to break from Thaksin in 2005, but i very much doubt that this is still so. The PAD has a clear ideology (though not very clear policies), and Sondhi is very much a man on a mission, with his own vision for Thailand’s future.
I would not underestimate the potential of any of the two major groups – Red Shirts and PAD. Both are still in a process of growth in ideology, strategy and mass appeal, and will continue to change the face of Thai politics.
currently on most (or all) Thai TV channels they play some sort of advertisement about “unity / reconciliation” and against the “colors”: people arguing and then fiighting. the narrator compares them to bacteria or virus, a desease (people start coughing etc.). then in the end narrator sasy that if things go on like this – our country will be destroyed… (this ad is produced by ko-ro-o-mo-no – army ?)
to me it looks like blunt propaganda aimed to dissuade whatever political dissent. propaganda doesn’t allow the difference in opinions or discussions – it tries to create an athmosphere with unanimous acceptance of the main ideology.
however during the PAD’s rallies last year and back in 2006 there were no such ads – I guess it was alright for “yellows” to stir up social unrest ? nobody voiced their dislike, but rather many officials were expressing support to PAD and condemned aby attempts by gov. to stop PAD’s action.
exactly ! in fact I see their move from yellow to “salad” (yellow-green) T-shirts as nothing else but a clever move to generate more funds, since now all their followers will have to buy the new color cloth. LOL
Yeah, point taken, the opinion of foreigners is often very different from the way locals see things (I do live in Myanmar but I guess “outsider” still applies). That’s one of the main reasons why forums like New Mandala are important.
And, I think we actually agree on more than it appears. I don’t necessarily agree with sanctions and you are right that these have played into China’s hands.
well, you may disagree of course. but that is merely your own opinion, I guess outsider’s – right?
the quote provided was of LOCAL people – what they think and feel, based on their own personal experience living in their country. which I think you would agree is different.
It has been asserted constantly to the point of being considered an unarguable fact that Jakraphob Penkair called for violent revolution. I looked into this question and wrote a letter to The Nation to question their interpretation of his statements. It wasn’t printed so I’d like to reprint it here. Apologies for the length of it but there’s a lot of ground to cover as misinformation becomes the official truth.
Today I read in The Nation (“Jakrapob to face action for armed-struggle call : PM”, April 28, 2009) that Prime Minister Abhisit has announced that Jakrapob Penkair will be charged for calling for armed struggle against the government. For all I know, the charges may be well-founded. But I could not establish the truth of the accusation from reading The Nation on this subject. A repeated theme in The Nation since the Songkran riots has been that Jakrapob Penkair is advocating violence. This did not seem to fit what I remembered him saying. I typed the name Jakrapob Penkair into The Nation’s search function. In the first nine articles cited, all of which say that Jakrapob has incited violence, there is no direct quote from the villain himself. It is not until we get to the tenth article, “Red shirts to use new tactics including possible armed attacks : Jakrapob” (April 22, 2009) that we see a single actual direct quotation as recorded by the BBC: “I believe the room for unarmed and non-violent means to resolve Thailand’s problem is getting smaller every day”.
In the next article cited, “Jakrapob busy setting up a base”, (April 21, 2009) there is a longer quotation: “I believe people are now deciding whether peaceful means serve them best. We are not encouraging violence, but we have to admit that people have been repeatedly disappointed,” he said.
“Legal standards have been clearly unfair and unjust. I am not saying there will be violence in the days ahead. But the remaining opportunities for a peaceful solution are decreasing every day.
“We still talk about a peaceful way in which people can get their rights back. But people have the right to defend themselves against aggression,” he explained.
Then there are five articles dealing with the mistakes of the redshirt leaders and the arrest warrants that await them. The last of these articles is dated April 15 after the riots. The next article that mentions Jakraphob is dated April 11 before the riots in Bangkok. In this article, Jakraphob and other redshirt leaders are accused of being “authoritarian’ by a fellow redshirt protester.
This may well be true. He may be an authoritarian. But I have seen nothing in The Nation’s coverage of Jakraphob that can lead to the certain conclusion that he has incited violence. He may well have done so but there is no evidence of it in these reports. What he has said is that the space for non-violent protest is getting smaller. Double standards for different coloured shirts. Radio stations and websites being closed down. A coup short-circuiting the democratic process. People being disappointed about these things. The only unambiguous thing that he has said that might legitimately be taken as an encouragement to violence is this: “people have the right to defend themselves against aggression”.
Well, do they or don’t they?
I hold no brief for Jakraphob Penkair. He was a spokesman for a government that sanctioned illegal acts of violence against Thai people – the 2500 “extra-judicial killings” of the war on dugs, Tak Bai, Kru Sae, the disappearance of Somchai. I am disappointed but no longer surprised that The Nation does not pursue these cases except with any rigour or consistency. I am sickened to hear them being added to the list of Thaksin’s crimes as a cheap talking point without any serious intent to investigate them.
But The Nation’s flimsy reporting gives it no right to draw the conclusions they have that Jakrapob is advocating violence. He may just as well be interpreted as advocating an expansion of the space for “unarmed and non-violent means”. That is to say, free and fair elections which are respected by all parties, even the losers.
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PAD tries a political party
The Red Shirt movement could suffer the same disintegration too if Abhisit goverment could hold on to power a little while longer, say one or two years from now.
Could the apparent wane in PAD ‘enthusiasm’ be partly attributed to the successes they have already achieved (Thaksin out, Democrats in)?
As for the ‘reds’, there is also the possibility that the longer the Abhisit government stays in place, the longer the reds will be able to hold together
(we have seen with the PAD how hatred of a common enemy is a strong unifying force)
Book review series
Are comments turned off on the individual book reviews? I can’t find the comment box on the Brummelhuis review.
Nich writes: This has been fixed. Best wishes to all.
PAD tries a political party
At the moment, on the previously, strongly pro-PAD webboard called “Seri Thai on the Web”, fiece in-fighting has broken out (over rather trivial matters, like money, etc.). I think this’s just one example of waning integration among PAD supporters.
The Red Shirt movement could suffer the same disintegration too if Abhisit goverment could hold on to power a little while longer, say one or two years from now. But at the moment they still have stronger ‘motive’ to unite. (But even they too already show some sign of internal conflicts over what to do next. One issue currently emergin is whether to boycott the next general elections, belived to be coming soon.)
I don’t think, in the Thai context, founding a party to fight for some vague ‘New Politics’ is a very strong motive to hold a big political movement together.
PAD tries a political party
On 25 May, tens of thousands of PAD supporters assembled in the sports stadium of Thammasat University’s Rangsit campus
I enjoy reading this interesting report by Prof.Nelson a lot. But I’m afraid, regarding the PAD’s 2nd day rally at TU Ransit campus, the number of attendants wasn’t as that many as he suggests. The whole stadium has a full capacity of only 20,000, and it was visibly far from full. That the number was smaller than PAD sympathizers had hoped, was in fact one topic discussed among them on some webboards. They admitted that much themselves, but tried to explain in a numbers of way, for in stance, the later downpouring of rain, etc. This might partially be true. I think, however, that the lack of clear policies and direction, in contrast to the days of “Thaksin (or, Thaksin’s Nominees) Get Out!” campaign, must surely have contributed to the rather lame ‘show of force’, especially toward the end of the rally (around 22 pm. – crowd in early afternoon was noticably much bigger).
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
I also have the impression from reading comments on some webboards by PAD sympathizers that their enthusiasm wasn’t quite that great either.
I take that as a good sign – I prefer them to leave the fanaticism for the football:)
The crushing of the Red Shirts
It’s really a tragedy for Thailand’s politics. After the incident, Pheu Thai Party’s MPs (secretly sponsored by the “corruptor”) has tried to discredit the government and distract by pushing them with stupid and unproven accusations, in which detail can be found in antipadshist’s comments. They don’t care how reasonable the accusations are because they are aware of their voters’ quality. They just say what they want to say. I’m personally jeolous of Americans, Australians, or Japanese: this kind of politician would not survive in your countries.
Book review series
NM bookworms will be delighted to know that ‘Pridi by Pridi’ is available for download in PDF form from Pridi-Phoonsuk Banomyong new website @ http://www.pridi-phoonsuk.org It’s translated & with an introduction by Chris Baker & Pasuk Phongphaichit. And it’s FREE!!!
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
More brain-washed idiots in yellow and red shirts. Do you guys actually find anything worth debating about any of these parasites?
Suwicha Thakor on his life in prison
Good points, well argued with good factual back-up, Tom Hoy #47. Do you really think it’s just “The Nation’s flimsy reporting,” or is it a bit more shonky & sinister than that – an attempt to join in the process of deluding the public? It seems to me that this whole LM issue is being played along very similar lines, to persuade the public that there is an organised, and growing, conspiracy to overthrow ‘all that Thais hold dear ‘ – a bit like the ‘communists-under-the-bed’ stuff in Oz during the 50s, & McCarthyism in U.S.
BTW, Thai Netizen Network has a statement re. the cases of Suwitcha & Chiranuch (Prachatai moderator/Director), which includes the following: “As the cases are related to the right to hold opinion, political expression and press freedom, which are guaranteed under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, these cases are distinctive from other ordinary criminal offences and that deserve careful treatment with the consideration of human rights.”
– 26th May 2009 @ http://thainetizen.org/node/570
(Although the UDHR is not legally binding, Thailand was one of the 48 states to vote in the UN General Assembly for its adoption in 1948.)
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
In case anyone think I’m too biased in my judgement, let me add that during the PAD 193 days protest rally last year, I wathed their live broadcast everday, hours at time. And no matter severe criticism I had of their aims, methods, politics, etc., I always thought they provided quite ‘interesting show’ most of the time. But this 2-days ‘founding PAD party’ conference really lacked true passion, true political direction – and it showed in almost all aspects of the conference, from leaders’ speeches, to stage shows, to participants’ comments, etc. I also have the impression from reading comments on some webboards by PAD sympathizers that their enthusiasm wasn’t quite that great either.
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
I appreciate that Nick tries to be even-handed as much as possible in dealing with the PAD. But for me, frankly, the whole show/parade was so pretentious, so juvernile, a kind of ‘thrown-back’ to the PAD leaders and activists’ student days! It’s like watching the recent insipid “Chula-Thammasat Traditional Football Mactch’ parades. If anyone interested and can read Thai, here my take :
http://www.sameskybooks.org/board/index.php?showtopic=31390&st=0
I do think their first day meeting was at least more interesting. I watched the live broadcast of the meeting all day, the whole 7-8 hours! But even this, I got the impression that it noticably lacked ‘fire’ or real passion, not least Sondhi himself (granted that he might not fully recover yet). It’s noticable that during their speeches both days, leading PADs used rather ‘cheap trick’ in the public rally speech handbook a lot more than they used to. (E.g. asking audience to shout some slogan, or ‘yes’/’no’ responses. This’s a sure sign of the lack of much substance in the speeches.)
For my take on the first day (in Thai), see
http://www.sameskybooks.org/board/index.php?showtopic=31324&st=0
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
“Dickie Simpkins” and “antipadshist”:
I have to disagree there. Many believe that Sondhi is just in for the money and his own advantage. That may have been the initial reason to break from Thaksin in 2005, but i very much doubt that this is still so. The PAD has a clear ideology (though not very clear policies), and Sondhi is very much a man on a mission, with his own vision for Thailand’s future.
I would not underestimate the potential of any of the two major groups – Red Shirts and PAD. Both are still in a process of growth in ideology, strategy and mass appeal, and will continue to change the face of Thai politics.
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
is Pheu Thai holding off on appointing office holders because it could be dissolved again and they dont want to lose yet another talent?
or could they have a leader in the house that is not counted as an officer of the party?
The sufficiency panacea
currently on most (or all) Thai TV channels they play some sort of advertisement about “unity / reconciliation” and against the “colors”: people arguing and then fiighting. the narrator compares them to bacteria or virus, a desease (people start coughing etc.). then in the end narrator sasy that if things go on like this – our country will be destroyed… (this ad is produced by ko-ro-o-mo-no – army ?)
to me it looks like blunt propaganda aimed to dissuade whatever political dissent. propaganda doesn’t allow the difference in opinions or discussions – it tries to create an athmosphere with unanimous acceptance of the main ideology.
however during the PAD’s rallies last year and back in 2006 there were no such ads – I guess it was alright for “yellows” to stir up social unrest ? nobody voiced their dislike, but rather many officials were expressing support to PAD and condemned aby attempts by gov. to stop PAD’s action.
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
@Dickie
exactly ! in fact I see their move from yellow to “salad” (yellow-green) T-shirts as nothing else but a clever move to generate more funds, since now all their followers will have to buy the new color cloth. LOL
Building bridges to understanding Sagaing Division
Here is the link:
http://www.mmtimes.com/no439/n011.htm
Andrew Selth on conspiracies and cock-ups
Yeah, point taken, the opinion of foreigners is often very different from the way locals see things (I do live in Myanmar but I guess “outsider” still applies). That’s one of the main reasons why forums like New Mandala are important.
And, I think we actually agree on more than it appears. I don’t necessarily agree with sanctions and you are right that these have played into China’s hands.
Andrew Selth on conspiracies and cock-ups
@tom #3
well, you may disagree of course. but that is merely your own opinion, I guess outsider’s – right?
the quote provided was of LOCAL people – what they think and feel, based on their own personal experience living in their country. which I think you would agree is different.
Suwicha Thakor on his life in prison
I think Tom Hoy is corrrect. This is all I have found as well. No call to violent insurrection that I have been able to locate and confirm.
Suwicha Thakor on his life in prison
It has been asserted constantly to the point of being considered an unarguable fact that Jakraphob Penkair called for violent revolution. I looked into this question and wrote a letter to The Nation to question their interpretation of his statements. It wasn’t printed so I’d like to reprint it here. Apologies for the length of it but there’s a lot of ground to cover as misinformation becomes the official truth.
Today I read in The Nation (“Jakrapob to face action for armed-struggle call : PM”, April 28, 2009) that Prime Minister Abhisit has announced that Jakrapob Penkair will be charged for calling for armed struggle against the government. For all I know, the charges may be well-founded. But I could not establish the truth of the accusation from reading The Nation on this subject. A repeated theme in The Nation since the Songkran riots has been that Jakrapob Penkair is advocating violence. This did not seem to fit what I remembered him saying. I typed the name Jakrapob Penkair into The Nation’s search function. In the first nine articles cited, all of which say that Jakrapob has incited violence, there is no direct quote from the villain himself. It is not until we get to the tenth article, “Red shirts to use new tactics including possible armed attacks : Jakrapob” (April 22, 2009) that we see a single actual direct quotation as recorded by the BBC: “I believe the room for unarmed and non-violent means to resolve Thailand’s problem is getting smaller every day”.
In the next article cited, “Jakrapob busy setting up a base”, (April 21, 2009) there is a longer quotation: “I believe people are now deciding whether peaceful means serve them best. We are not encouraging violence, but we have to admit that people have been repeatedly disappointed,” he said.
“Legal standards have been clearly unfair and unjust. I am not saying there will be violence in the days ahead. But the remaining opportunities for a peaceful solution are decreasing every day.
“We still talk about a peaceful way in which people can get their rights back. But people have the right to defend themselves against aggression,” he explained.
Then there are five articles dealing with the mistakes of the redshirt leaders and the arrest warrants that await them. The last of these articles is dated April 15 after the riots. The next article that mentions Jakraphob is dated April 11 before the riots in Bangkok. In this article, Jakraphob and other redshirt leaders are accused of being “authoritarian’ by a fellow redshirt protester.
This may well be true. He may be an authoritarian. But I have seen nothing in The Nation’s coverage of Jakraphob that can lead to the certain conclusion that he has incited violence. He may well have done so but there is no evidence of it in these reports. What he has said is that the space for non-violent protest is getting smaller. Double standards for different coloured shirts. Radio stations and websites being closed down. A coup short-circuiting the democratic process. People being disappointed about these things. The only unambiguous thing that he has said that might legitimately be taken as an encouragement to violence is this: “people have the right to defend themselves against aggression”.
Well, do they or don’t they?
I hold no brief for Jakraphob Penkair. He was a spokesman for a government that sanctioned illegal acts of violence against Thai people – the 2500 “extra-judicial killings” of the war on dugs, Tak Bai, Kru Sae, the disappearance of Somchai. I am disappointed but no longer surprised that The Nation does not pursue these cases except with any rigour or consistency. I am sickened to hear them being added to the list of Thaksin’s crimes as a cheap talking point without any serious intent to investigate them.
But The Nation’s flimsy reporting gives it no right to draw the conclusions they have that Jakrapob is advocating violence. He may just as well be interpreted as advocating an expansion of the space for “unarmed and non-violent means”. That is to say, free and fair elections which are respected by all parties, even the losers.