agree with your posts but I am shocked and horrified if its true that the international press are actually at all favourable to the PAD, the press I have, selectively, seen has seemed unfavourable…
if its true I am in despair… Sondhi is the Goebbels and the Hitler seems to be a small group of Thai elite.
We will join the Truth Today red shirt group who will gather Sunday 4pm in a show of numbers supporting the government.
I am hoping that at least 100,000 people will gather (as they did on Nov 1) just to show the anti-democratic groups how much ordinary people of Thailand disapprove of the PAD and their backers.
at this stage I have to say I think the Kings Birthday celebrations are being overshadowed and may even be something that the mass of ordinary Thai people are starting find somewhat out of place compared to this political struggle.
the judicial coup that is being discussed is sullied by the history and actions of the courts that were restructured and the judges that were appointed by the military CNS after 2006 coup and the red shirts are likely to resist any government imposed by anyone.
We all can not talk about some specific interest groups who are also involved.
Rural hospitals were also built before Thaksin. There is and was an huge social infrastructure in Thailand before Thaksin entered the scene. You just have to travel to all the other ASEAN countries to see how far Thailand have come – again without and before Thaksin. His spin doctors – the American PR-company he employed since 2 years before his first election success – now make everybody believe that there were no social policies before him. And they are obviously very successfull.
To build hospitals and schools is ok but to pour out money whereever you go is buying political favour. His famous dual track policies were actually not invented to help the poor but to save the asses of his industrial cronies who would have lost their companies if not an huge increase of demand would jacked up demand for their products. If he would be a champion of the poor he would have made sure their incomes increase (the minimum wage – a good indicator for the average wage level – increased about 4% in 10 years). His cronies pocketed the profits on the back of the work of labour force which he then makes happy with handouts. They not get their fair share but handouts. That is the main problem.
Maybe I am oldfashioned, but I do trust labour and farm leaders who work and fight for their companinons. With them you can search for policies for a fairer sharing of economic resources – very often that also includes also a more intense contribution of the working and farming classes. I do not trust a very rich leader who spreads some money, gets the votes, and then turns around and screws everything in site to vastly enrich himself even more.
It is quite healthy to have dreams and visions. I dream of a Thai society – I am leaving here since decades and feel kind of part of the society – in which a participatory middle-class and well-established labour and farmers movements are determining our economy and social and political life. That this is possible, many European countries – especially Scandinavian and middle-European – are showing quite convincingly. Acutally in these countries labour and farmers are already middleclass. There woudl be no place in these countries for Thaksins.
You can look up the economic statistics for OECD counties and studies of many leading economic univeristies. About 3-5% of the populations have 60-65% of the assests. If somebody has other figures, I am very willing to investigate and accept.
The tax volume increased 4-fold in 5 years under Thaksin (just read the national statistics). Yes, the middleclass is upset about it as the rich are basically not paying any taxes. Yes, I am personally upset that Thaksin made a 1.7 billion Euro profit and was not willing to pay a single Baht on taxes. And I think I am very right so.
I am aware that there is poverty. But it is a relative concept. Poverty in Africa or India looks different then in Thailand where many people who consider themselves poor do have a motorcycle, a fridge, a TV, a DVD station, handies etc and certainly enough to eat, decent clothes and a roof over their heads. Yes compared with the rich in the Thai soapoperas they are poor but it stays a relative concept.
I am aware that there are always a lot of people around who like to have a free lunch. If you cater to these people to gain power and enrich yourself you are certainly not a democratic hero but an egoist who is doing great damage to your society.
Given the largely favorable international coverage of the PAD, a judicial coup will appear far more palatable to outsiders than a direct military intervention.
Thus to the misinformed casual observer (such as those of us in Australia exposed to the lame efforts of the ABC’s correspondent and other lazy so-called journalists), it will appear as if ‘democracy’ has emerged the winner, more than likely eliciting a muted reaction from the international community.
Paradoxically, in the view of the aforementioned media coverage, any violent reaction from the red shirts might therefore be viewed as counter to the force led by the People’s Alliance for ‘Democracy’.
Never underestimate the power of the media in all this. Sondhi, after all is a master of it.
With Chamlong and Sondhi seemingly leading their herd of buffalos into a perilous standoff with the police, it is becoming increasingly clear that PAD have hedged their bets on the inevitable outcome (having quite possibly known all along) of the Constitution Court ruling – that is that PPP (and other coalition parties?) will be dissolved on Tuesday, and an interim administration appointed.
Thus, a judicial coup (with the military’s fingerprints all over it, given its role in drafting the 07 constitution) and victory for PAD, who will no doubt play a major role in any new regime.
The end of democracy, and the disenfranchisement of the majority rural electorate. The problem is, how will the masses react? The rhetoric of the red shirts suggests blood. Is there a contingency plan in place to counter this reaction?
I will leave the timing of all this (given that the Constitution Court decision appears set for just three days before the King’s Birthday) for others to speculate.
from The Nation newspaper Saturday morning:
——————————————————————-
Chamlong alerts protesters to move from Government House to Bangkok airport
Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, woke up protesters inside the government House complex at 6 am Saturday, telling them to get ready to travel to the Suvarnabhumi International Airport.
The protesters were told to board buses at the Nang Lerng Racecourse at 7 am.
The were told to bring along foods and drinking water.
———————————————————————-
The open and public movement of reinforcements from Government House to the Airport?!
In the middle of the day in the center of the Capital?!
With no interference or response from the nation’s police or army?!
With no attempt to arrest or detain the Organizers?!
Thailand and the Thai Army are becoming the laughingstock of the world…………….
Congratulations are due to Nick Nostitz for winning 2nd Place in the Spot News category of the Second Annual Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand Photojournalism Contest. His prize-winning photo is of the same subject as the 4th photo on this blog.
Photo of the Year Award (actually 2 photos – the judges couldn’t agree) was won by Surapan Boonthanom, selected from his wonderful 1st Prize-winning Photo Essay on Southern Thai violence.
The competition was judged by 4 world-famous photojournalists, & includes superb work by names like Nic Dunlop & Timothy Syrota, amongst others.
The exhibition will be open to all at the FCCT clubrooms in the penthouse at Maneeya Center Building (near Chidlom BTS ) 10am-11pm Mon-Fri until January 30th. http//:www.fccthai.com
No greater demonstration of the royals true colors has ever occured. That 80-90% of Thais disagree with the PAD means nothing to them. If Prem and the royals act to overthrow the government rather than the PAD, they will have to live with how that 80-90% react. The best way for a crisis to be dealt with is through the enforcement of law, not royal intervention. Even in democracies the seizure of government buildings, public utilities, and international airports is resolved by legal use of force (even if it costs lives). If the PAD wins this, every future opposition group can test the sitting government by seizing the airport to force them a choice between resignation or the use of force. The PAD cannot be allowed to win for the good of Thailand’s future political system.
Royal intervention too would exacerbate the inability of the rule of law to govern Thailand, just has it has in the past. If the police and military will not listen to Somchai then they should quickly select a new PM (a less tainted figure) and try again. At some point if the military won’t do it for the elected leaders they will have to do it for themselves. Let them run the government under martial law and hold Chamlong and Sondhi accountable for their actions. Even martial law has constitutional legitimacy in times of crisis. The PAD doesn’t win if the the parliament is disolved. They only win if they can alter the consitution for their assured control of future governments. As long as the military regime then rejects such an impulse and holds new elections, there may be a way out of this that balances rule of law, the legal use of security forces, and without the intervention of anti-rule of law royal intervention, and without setting the precedent that minority political voices can seize the airport to force political change.
Karl, you are right Europeans are misguided. For example, the only figures you present – on wealth – are wildly misguided.
Much of the rest of your statement have been made before, not the least by the Manager newspaper back in 2005-6 when they argued that the middle class was funding Thaksin to be elected by the poor and this meant that taxpayer’s funds (their funds) were going to the poor. Part of the reason for this argument was that Thaksin’s government tightened tax collection. That action scared the middle class more than anything else and prompted protective actions such as supporting PAD.
The use of term “so called poor” suggests that you don’t think these groups exist in Thailand? If that were true, the current events would not be as complex as they are now.
In response to Roger, another alternative is to dissolve PPP and then have a quick election so that no PPP member can stand in the election. This would be a flip-side of the boycotted election in 2006.
(My money is currently on this outcome but it is a small wager as things remain fluid.)
As far as I’m concerned, the sooner the police / armed forces move in and clear out Sondhi/Chamlong’s hapless pawns from Suwarnabhumi and Don Muang, the better. Arrest them and charge them in full accordance with whatever laws they’ve broken. After all, these are the folk who go on about the importance of the rule of law.
I neither like nor care for Thaksin. I neither like nor care for the PAD. It pains me to say, though, that maybe an appointed government (appointed by whom – let’s not think about that) might be the best choice for Thailand. It’s simply futile to try and view what’s happening here through the prism of logic, or to attempt to fit a Western style democratic template onto the chaos. Vote buying is and always has been the order of the day. Of course, what Sondhi et al don’t say is that while many in the NE took money for their votes, they would have voted for TRT / PPP in any case because they liked their policies. TRT was, after all, the first political party that actually enunciated a clear policy platform.
But forget all this. What really matters, here and now, is that Thailand’s economy is on the fast track to failure. Exports are slumping and we’re starting to see the first mass lay-offs in the manufacturing sector. The tourism / hospitality is therefore of even greater importance. Now, thanks to the venal intransigence of the PAD leadership, incalculable damage has been done to a critical sector of the economy at a time when it can least afford it. The PAD has been handing out free meals willy-nilly at its rallies and at the airport – will they also take responsibility for feeding the tens of thousands who are going to lose their livelihoods as a result of their latest actions?
“Oh, but Thaksin is a bad man, and this government is his evil puppet parliament. It’s all his fault, or Somchai’s fault for not resigning!” Please. Take a step back, forget Thaksin, and focus on the future. Focus on the fact that a generation of failure to to invest in the education sector means that Thailand is now disadvantaged yet further as it competes with countries such as Malaysia, The Philippines and Indonesia.
I don’t think a judicial coup is going to be any better than a military one. And it looks like the coup is going to take place next Tuesday or soon after, since the court has ordered the political parties to submit their final arguments then. Of course this is bad for a lot of businesses in Thailand, which are suffering the loss of hundreds of million baht a day from the airport closure, but either the backers of the PAD are less directly affected by this or they are figuring they will be able to make it up by looting the treasury after the court appoints a ruling council.
Actually, that looks like the only way PAD and its backers can achieve the radical change of government structure they want. They may not even bother allowing a 30% elected parliament.
Sanctions are obviously not really doing anything constructive. Almost certainly quite the opposite. But it seems a pity not to suggest some lifting of the uniformed tyrrany at the same time. Where exactly are we coming from here?
Perhaps karl should define ‘bought” and “tax payers money”. I do not believe members of the European govt have use their personal money to subsidise the ‘european” farmers. neither did any member of the European govt use their own money to build roads, rail or mass transit system?? Its all tax payer’s money.
Any social service or infrastructure that a govt build is tax payer’s money. It is what a govt should do. Bought??? Do you mean building a university in Bangkok is development and building a hospital in a rural district is “buying” the farmers’s vote.????
I can go on and on, but please everyone, differentiate between bringing some social service and infrastructure and “buying” Just becoause the previous govt in Thailand wouldn’t give a shit to the rural community, they start screaming “vote buying” when TRT started the trend and got the votes.
Perhaps karl should advice the “Democratic” (quotes delibrate) party and the PAD to start doing something good instead of destroying the country.
BTW – in another blog I asked a writer to just name ONE Thai politician / military/ or policeman who is not corrupt. I ask karl the same question. If you can’t, please stop harping about ‘vote buying” Same question goes to everyone
Disagree totally with Robert Bates. The election while containing some bribery is generally seen by outsiders as representing the will of the majority of Thais – and the bribery was transparent. If there is a ‘tyranny of the majority’ then there should be (as in Australia) constitutional mechanisms for correcting them. The Thaksin Government did not behave well – so it was a failure of political/constitutional mechanisms that should protect individual rights that is the problem (the Tampa situation arose because those people were deliberately kept outside Australian constitutional/legal protection). The solution is to make sure these protections are real. The PAD could have argued for better legal etc protections to protect minorities. Instead, they resort to minority mob rule. Until both sides agree that the ‘rule of law’ is the only way to go then Thailand is doomed to long-term political failure. This means an acceptance of political competition not street competition. It seems that some unspeakable people do not believe in political competition. This includes the Rector of Thammasat University – a law professor. Australia should keep its nose out of Thai affairs except to encourage institutional reform that Thais want.
This discussion is becoming more and more interesing..Karl Reichstetter , I wonder if u can write a bit more?(esp. the last part when u comment on how very important people in Thailand are involved in this fight)
Thaksin never did something for the people. He bought them with taxpayer’s money to gain power to enrich himself even more. The really angry people in Bangkok are not an elite but normal middle-class people who have as little voice as the so-called poor.
In Europe democracy was developing very different to Thailand today. The ‘poor’ – labour and farmers – were led by people who wanted a ‘fair’ share of the national ‘cake’ for their clientele. And this concern with fairness also included the understanding that the workers and farmers had to contribute to the national cake with ever increasing efficiency and that also other groups in the society deserve their share. This is a very different picture to the situation in Thailand today. The 3% who own 60% of the nation’s wealth (Thaksin etc.) want to get 70%. For this they let the middleclass bleed. Hello Argentina!!!
I am afraid many Europeans are midguided in their judgement of the situation when they think it is a conflict between the poor and the elites. To the contrary, an elite is paying off the ‘poor’ with the money of the middleclass to also disenfrenchize the middleclass.
It is complex but socio-political contexts are complex and not nicely black and white. (In my short analysis I did not even enter the interests of some other very important people yet which makes things even more complicated.)
Couldn’t agree more with Robet Bates. Thanks for yr insights, and I do hope the Australian and other foreign governments put more pressure on Thailand to make sure that the election process is transparent and that certain very oppressive laws be abolished permanently ( so that there is more room for (constructive) freedom of speech and discussion, and no one could use these laws for political and personal gain in a very disgusting way).
Burma do not need external help like a beggar, period. Burma is nowhere near like Ethiopia. What Burma need is a normal relationship with the rest of the world. Normal political, normal economic, and normal trade relationship with the rest of the world.
Burma didn’t invade a neighbor like Sadam’s Iraq did, Burma didn’t harbor or encourage terrorist organizations like Taliban’s Afghanistan did, Burma didn’t even practice institutionalized racism like Apartheid S.Africa did, but totally unjust and unfair draconian sanctions are being placed upon Burma just for her own internal reasons.
Burma is not that much different from Communist Vietnam and Laos or Hun Sen’s Cambodia, but Burma is being singled out and punished by the international community for her efforts to quell the civil war which she inherited unfortunately as the outcome of long colonial period and brutal WW2.
Lift the Western sanctions and this debate to help Burma will disappear.
I agree that the fundamental issue is the old elite vs the democratic majority. Removing Thaksin, as the current rural hero is the first step. Secondly I would suggest that those behind the PAD want to stop one person, one vote.
While I understand the hero worship and unconditional support he receives from the poor, it may serve their interests better to move on and find someone new. It is unfortunate they can’t vote for one of their own. My understanding is a farmer still needs a university degree to stand for parliament. Another barrier against the poor. Although, hopefully as more of the children of today’s rural folk attend university, some will rise up and take on the old elite powers, rather than relying on representation via one of the richest people in the country (not the richest by far).
The superiority complex of the elite is taught and reinforced by many hierarchical concepts and structures, and is a useful for rationalisatising behaviours that go against the ideal of equality. It may be one of the basest forms of human nature, but who wants to give up power, wealth, and privilege.
The fact that the PAD have been able to carry out all these take over protests, have armed guards, and now the power to authorise flights in and out of the currently, reflects very badly on the powers that be. Shame on them for allowing this travesty for their own purposes. I hope Thaksin names them, although we can probably guess half of them
However, having a had a taste of a slightly big crumb from the pie, the rural poor will not give up easily. Suppression may one day lead to revolution.
I sense this time, if there is another coup, the downtrodden masses are not in the mood to let it go without some resistance.
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Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
Tony Loader…
agree with your posts but I am shocked and horrified if its true that the international press are actually at all favourable to the PAD, the press I have, selectively, seen has seemed unfavourable…
if its true I am in despair… Sondhi is the Goebbels and the Hitler seems to be a small group of Thai elite.
We will join the Truth Today red shirt group who will gather Sunday 4pm in a show of numbers supporting the government.
I am hoping that at least 100,000 people will gather (as they did on Nov 1) just to show the anti-democratic groups how much ordinary people of Thailand disapprove of the PAD and their backers.
at this stage I have to say I think the Kings Birthday celebrations are being overshadowed and may even be something that the mass of ordinary Thai people are starting find somewhat out of place compared to this political struggle.
the judicial coup that is being discussed is sullied by the history and actions of the courts that were restructured and the judges that were appointed by the military CNS after 2006 coup and the red shirts are likely to resist any government imposed by anyone.
New Mandala in The Age
We all can not talk about some specific interest groups who are also involved.
Rural hospitals were also built before Thaksin. There is and was an huge social infrastructure in Thailand before Thaksin entered the scene. You just have to travel to all the other ASEAN countries to see how far Thailand have come – again without and before Thaksin. His spin doctors – the American PR-company he employed since 2 years before his first election success – now make everybody believe that there were no social policies before him. And they are obviously very successfull.
To build hospitals and schools is ok but to pour out money whereever you go is buying political favour. His famous dual track policies were actually not invented to help the poor but to save the asses of his industrial cronies who would have lost their companies if not an huge increase of demand would jacked up demand for their products. If he would be a champion of the poor he would have made sure their incomes increase (the minimum wage – a good indicator for the average wage level – increased about 4% in 10 years). His cronies pocketed the profits on the back of the work of labour force which he then makes happy with handouts. They not get their fair share but handouts. That is the main problem.
Maybe I am oldfashioned, but I do trust labour and farm leaders who work and fight for their companinons. With them you can search for policies for a fairer sharing of economic resources – very often that also includes also a more intense contribution of the working and farming classes. I do not trust a very rich leader who spreads some money, gets the votes, and then turns around and screws everything in site to vastly enrich himself even more.
It is quite healthy to have dreams and visions. I dream of a Thai society – I am leaving here since decades and feel kind of part of the society – in which a participatory middle-class and well-established labour and farmers movements are determining our economy and social and political life. That this is possible, many European countries – especially Scandinavian and middle-European – are showing quite convincingly. Acutally in these countries labour and farmers are already middleclass. There woudl be no place in these countries for Thaksins.
You can look up the economic statistics for OECD counties and studies of many leading economic univeristies. About 3-5% of the populations have 60-65% of the assests. If somebody has other figures, I am very willing to investigate and accept.
The tax volume increased 4-fold in 5 years under Thaksin (just read the national statistics). Yes, the middleclass is upset about it as the rich are basically not paying any taxes. Yes, I am personally upset that Thaksin made a 1.7 billion Euro profit and was not willing to pay a single Baht on taxes. And I think I am very right so.
I am aware that there is poverty. But it is a relative concept. Poverty in Africa or India looks different then in Thailand where many people who consider themselves poor do have a motorcycle, a fridge, a TV, a DVD station, handies etc and certainly enough to eat, decent clothes and a roof over their heads. Yes compared with the rich in the Thai soapoperas they are poor but it stays a relative concept.
I am aware that there are always a lot of people around who like to have a free lunch. If you cater to these people to gain power and enrich yourself you are certainly not a democratic hero but an egoist who is doing great damage to your society.
Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
And another thing…
Given the largely favorable international coverage of the PAD, a judicial coup will appear far more palatable to outsiders than a direct military intervention.
Thus to the misinformed casual observer (such as those of us in Australia exposed to the lame efforts of the ABC’s correspondent and other lazy so-called journalists), it will appear as if ‘democracy’ has emerged the winner, more than likely eliciting a muted reaction from the international community.
Paradoxically, in the view of the aforementioned media coverage, any violent reaction from the red shirts might therefore be viewed as counter to the force led by the People’s Alliance for ‘Democracy’.
Never underestimate the power of the media in all this. Sondhi, after all is a master of it.
Thanks all for allowing me to ‘think aloud’.
Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
With Chamlong and Sondhi seemingly leading their herd of buffalos into a perilous standoff with the police, it is becoming increasingly clear that PAD have hedged their bets on the inevitable outcome (having quite possibly known all along) of the Constitution Court ruling – that is that PPP (and other coalition parties?) will be dissolved on Tuesday, and an interim administration appointed.
Thus, a judicial coup (with the military’s fingerprints all over it, given its role in drafting the 07 constitution) and victory for PAD, who will no doubt play a major role in any new regime.
The end of democracy, and the disenfranchisement of the majority rural electorate. The problem is, how will the masses react? The rhetoric of the red shirts suggests blood. Is there a contingency plan in place to counter this reaction?
I will leave the timing of all this (given that the Constitution Court decision appears set for just three days before the King’s Birthday) for others to speculate.
Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
from The Nation newspaper Saturday morning:
——————————————————————-
Chamlong alerts protesters to move from Government House to Bangkok airport
Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, woke up protesters inside the government House complex at 6 am Saturday, telling them to get ready to travel to the Suvarnabhumi International Airport.
The protesters were told to board buses at the Nang Lerng Racecourse at 7 am.
The were told to bring along foods and drinking water.
———————————————————————-
The open and public movement of reinforcements from Government House to the Airport?!
In the middle of the day in the center of the Capital?!
With no interference or response from the nation’s police or army?!
With no attempt to arrest or detain the Organizers?!
Thailand and the Thai Army are becoming the laughingstock of the world…………….
What happened on 7/10/2008?
Congratulations are due to Nick Nostitz for winning 2nd Place in the Spot News category of the Second Annual Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand Photojournalism Contest. His prize-winning photo is of the same subject as the 4th photo on this blog.
Photo of the Year Award (actually 2 photos – the judges couldn’t agree) was won by Surapan Boonthanom, selected from his wonderful 1st Prize-winning Photo Essay on Southern Thai violence.
The competition was judged by 4 world-famous photojournalists, & includes superb work by names like Nic Dunlop & Timothy Syrota, amongst others.
The exhibition will be open to all at the FCCT clubrooms in the penthouse at Maneeya Center Building (near Chidlom BTS ) 10am-11pm Mon-Fri until January 30th. http//:www.fccthai.com
Too late for royal intervention?
No greater demonstration of the royals true colors has ever occured. That 80-90% of Thais disagree with the PAD means nothing to them. If Prem and the royals act to overthrow the government rather than the PAD, they will have to live with how that 80-90% react. The best way for a crisis to be dealt with is through the enforcement of law, not royal intervention. Even in democracies the seizure of government buildings, public utilities, and international airports is resolved by legal use of force (even if it costs lives). If the PAD wins this, every future opposition group can test the sitting government by seizing the airport to force them a choice between resignation or the use of force. The PAD cannot be allowed to win for the good of Thailand’s future political system.
Royal intervention too would exacerbate the inability of the rule of law to govern Thailand, just has it has in the past. If the police and military will not listen to Somchai then they should quickly select a new PM (a less tainted figure) and try again. At some point if the military won’t do it for the elected leaders they will have to do it for themselves. Let them run the government under martial law and hold Chamlong and Sondhi accountable for their actions. Even martial law has constitutional legitimacy in times of crisis. The PAD doesn’t win if the the parliament is disolved. They only win if they can alter the consitution for their assured control of future governments. As long as the military regime then rejects such an impulse and holds new elections, there may be a way out of this that balances rule of law, the legal use of security forces, and without the intervention of anti-rule of law royal intervention, and without setting the precedent that minority political voices can seize the airport to force political change.
New Mandala in The Age
Karl, you are right Europeans are misguided. For example, the only figures you present – on wealth – are wildly misguided.
Much of the rest of your statement have been made before, not the least by the Manager newspaper back in 2005-6 when they argued that the middle class was funding Thaksin to be elected by the poor and this meant that taxpayer’s funds (their funds) were going to the poor. Part of the reason for this argument was that Thaksin’s government tightened tax collection. That action scared the middle class more than anything else and prompted protective actions such as supporting PAD.
The use of term “so called poor” suggests that you don’t think these groups exist in Thailand? If that were true, the current events would not be as complex as they are now.
Too late for royal intervention?
In response to Roger, another alternative is to dissolve PPP and then have a quick election so that no PPP member can stand in the election. This would be a flip-side of the boycotted election in 2006.
(My money is currently on this outcome but it is a small wager as things remain fluid.)
Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
Do the police cut you some slack when you transgress? I think not.
Conflict in Bangkok: Open thread
As far as I’m concerned, the sooner the police / armed forces move in and clear out Sondhi/Chamlong’s hapless pawns from Suwarnabhumi and Don Muang, the better. Arrest them and charge them in full accordance with whatever laws they’ve broken. After all, these are the folk who go on about the importance of the rule of law.
I neither like nor care for Thaksin. I neither like nor care for the PAD. It pains me to say, though, that maybe an appointed government (appointed by whom – let’s not think about that) might be the best choice for Thailand. It’s simply futile to try and view what’s happening here through the prism of logic, or to attempt to fit a Western style democratic template onto the chaos. Vote buying is and always has been the order of the day. Of course, what Sondhi et al don’t say is that while many in the NE took money for their votes, they would have voted for TRT / PPP in any case because they liked their policies. TRT was, after all, the first political party that actually enunciated a clear policy platform.
But forget all this. What really matters, here and now, is that Thailand’s economy is on the fast track to failure. Exports are slumping and we’re starting to see the first mass lay-offs in the manufacturing sector. The tourism / hospitality is therefore of even greater importance. Now, thanks to the venal intransigence of the PAD leadership, incalculable damage has been done to a critical sector of the economy at a time when it can least afford it. The PAD has been handing out free meals willy-nilly at its rallies and at the airport – will they also take responsibility for feeding the tens of thousands who are going to lose their livelihoods as a result of their latest actions?
“Oh, but Thaksin is a bad man, and this government is his evil puppet parliament. It’s all his fault, or Somchai’s fault for not resigning!” Please. Take a step back, forget Thaksin, and focus on the future. Focus on the fact that a generation of failure to to invest in the education sector means that Thailand is now disadvantaged yet further as it competes with countries such as Malaysia, The Philippines and Indonesia.
Roll on the riot police.
Too late for royal intervention?
I don’t think a judicial coup is going to be any better than a military one. And it looks like the coup is going to take place next Tuesday or soon after, since the court has ordered the political parties to submit their final arguments then. Of course this is bad for a lot of businesses in Thailand, which are suffering the loss of hundreds of million baht a day from the airport closure, but either the backers of the PAD are less directly affected by this or they are figuring they will be able to make it up by looting the treasury after the court appoints a ruling council.
Actually, that looks like the only way PAD and its backers can achieve the radical change of government structure they want. They may not even bother allowing a 30% elected parliament.
Help
Sanctions are obviously not really doing anything constructive. Almost certainly quite the opposite. But it seems a pity not to suggest some lifting of the uniformed tyrrany at the same time. Where exactly are we coming from here?
New Mandala in The Age
Perhaps karl should define ‘bought” and “tax payers money”. I do not believe members of the European govt have use their personal money to subsidise the ‘european” farmers. neither did any member of the European govt use their own money to build roads, rail or mass transit system?? Its all tax payer’s money.
Any social service or infrastructure that a govt build is tax payer’s money. It is what a govt should do. Bought??? Do you mean building a university in Bangkok is development and building a hospital in a rural district is “buying” the farmers’s vote.????
I can go on and on, but please everyone, differentiate between bringing some social service and infrastructure and “buying” Just becoause the previous govt in Thailand wouldn’t give a shit to the rural community, they start screaming “vote buying” when TRT started the trend and got the votes.
Perhaps karl should advice the “Democratic” (quotes delibrate) party and the PAD to start doing something good instead of destroying the country.
BTW – in another blog I asked a writer to just name ONE Thai politician / military/ or policeman who is not corrupt. I ask karl the same question. If you can’t, please stop harping about ‘vote buying” Same question goes to everyone
New Mandala in The Age
Disagree totally with Robert Bates. The election while containing some bribery is generally seen by outsiders as representing the will of the majority of Thais – and the bribery was transparent. If there is a ‘tyranny of the majority’ then there should be (as in Australia) constitutional mechanisms for correcting them. The Thaksin Government did not behave well – so it was a failure of political/constitutional mechanisms that should protect individual rights that is the problem (the Tampa situation arose because those people were deliberately kept outside Australian constitutional/legal protection). The solution is to make sure these protections are real. The PAD could have argued for better legal etc protections to protect minorities. Instead, they resort to minority mob rule. Until both sides agree that the ‘rule of law’ is the only way to go then Thailand is doomed to long-term political failure. This means an acceptance of political competition not street competition. It seems that some unspeakable people do not believe in political competition. This includes the Rector of Thammasat University – a law professor. Australia should keep its nose out of Thai affairs except to encourage institutional reform that Thais want.
New Mandala in The Age
This discussion is becoming more and more interesing..Karl Reichstetter , I wonder if u can write a bit more?(esp. the last part when u comment on how very important people in Thailand are involved in this fight)
New Mandala in The Age
Thaksin never did something for the people. He bought them with taxpayer’s money to gain power to enrich himself even more. The really angry people in Bangkok are not an elite but normal middle-class people who have as little voice as the so-called poor.
In Europe democracy was developing very different to Thailand today. The ‘poor’ – labour and farmers – were led by people who wanted a ‘fair’ share of the national ‘cake’ for their clientele. And this concern with fairness also included the understanding that the workers and farmers had to contribute to the national cake with ever increasing efficiency and that also other groups in the society deserve their share. This is a very different picture to the situation in Thailand today. The 3% who own 60% of the nation’s wealth (Thaksin etc.) want to get 70%. For this they let the middleclass bleed. Hello Argentina!!!
I am afraid many Europeans are midguided in their judgement of the situation when they think it is a conflict between the poor and the elites. To the contrary, an elite is paying off the ‘poor’ with the money of the middleclass to also disenfrenchize the middleclass.
It is complex but socio-political contexts are complex and not nicely black and white. (In my short analysis I did not even enter the interests of some other very important people yet which makes things even more complicated.)
New Mandala in The Age
Couldn’t agree more with Robet Bates. Thanks for yr insights, and I do hope the Australian and other foreign governments put more pressure on Thailand to make sure that the election process is transparent and that certain very oppressive laws be abolished permanently ( so that there is more room for (constructive) freedom of speech and discussion, and no one could use these laws for political and personal gain in a very disgusting way).
Help
Burma do not need external help like a beggar, period. Burma is nowhere near like Ethiopia. What Burma need is a normal relationship with the rest of the world. Normal political, normal economic, and normal trade relationship with the rest of the world.
Burma didn’t invade a neighbor like Sadam’s Iraq did, Burma didn’t harbor or encourage terrorist organizations like Taliban’s Afghanistan did, Burma didn’t even practice institutionalized racism like Apartheid S.Africa did, but totally unjust and unfair draconian sanctions are being placed upon Burma just for her own internal reasons.
Burma is not that much different from Communist Vietnam and Laos or Hun Sen’s Cambodia, but Burma is being singled out and punished by the international community for her efforts to quell the civil war which she inherited unfortunately as the outcome of long colonial period and brutal WW2.
Lift the Western sanctions and this debate to help Burma will disappear.
New Mandala in The Age
I agree that the fundamental issue is the old elite vs the democratic majority. Removing Thaksin, as the current rural hero is the first step. Secondly I would suggest that those behind the PAD want to stop one person, one vote.
While I understand the hero worship and unconditional support he receives from the poor, it may serve their interests better to move on and find someone new. It is unfortunate they can’t vote for one of their own. My understanding is a farmer still needs a university degree to stand for parliament. Another barrier against the poor. Although, hopefully as more of the children of today’s rural folk attend university, some will rise up and take on the old elite powers, rather than relying on representation via one of the richest people in the country (not the richest by far).
The superiority complex of the elite is taught and reinforced by many hierarchical concepts and structures, and is a useful for rationalisatising behaviours that go against the ideal of equality. It may be one of the basest forms of human nature, but who wants to give up power, wealth, and privilege.
The fact that the PAD have been able to carry out all these take over protests, have armed guards, and now the power to authorise flights in and out of the currently, reflects very badly on the powers that be. Shame on them for allowing this travesty for their own purposes. I hope Thaksin names them, although we can probably guess half of them
However, having a had a taste of a slightly big crumb from the pie, the rural poor will not give up easily. Suppression may one day lead to revolution.
I sense this time, if there is another coup, the downtrodden masses are not in the mood to let it go without some resistance.