Karens fighting Karens, bloodshed among brothers, the same as in the Delta 30 years ago. History is repeating again. Why? Or just a sad story of Burma!
Sidh: It is not laboratory research that I am involved in but rather the application of ant social life (following in the sociobiological steps of Wilson) to Thai politics. This approach must have been too complicated for me, thus making me unable to summarize 10 years of “very complex and dynamic interplay” in meaningful 300-500 words. Note that my previous comment was about a very small issue of all that interplay. Since you have such a good grasp of this period, and are probably not involved with ants, perhaps you are in a better position than me for doing this job. Moreover, you also seem to be extremely unbiased. Good luck.
With a very limited knowledge of finance, I instinctively believe in micro-credit schemes and agree that VRF scheme should be “strengthened and improved” – at least with greater transparency in the process and better financial advice to borrowers. I understand that the Grameen Bank has a very percentage of small loan default (less than 2% if I remember correctly which is very impressive especially when compared with defaults by rich borrowers) and I hope VRF can emulate that.
Charles F.: Thanks for the information about Melton, Bleming, and Laklem. I don’t know them and I’ll stay clear. American Dave is a known guy so I think I’ll just contact him about the potential volunteers and/or donors.
You’re right. I don’t know much about the players in the Burma theater. The people I mentioned in the first post all gave me permission to use their names. Also, I gave them the address of the Mandala so they can add comments and information if they so desire. One has contacted me and says he will write in soon. These guys are all known by everyone. Trust me on that.
Don’t worry about making suggestions, etc. The reason I’m hanging around this forum is to increase my knowledge. To put things in perspective: I do not go into Burma. I am not a missionary, mercenary, intel guy, or anything else. I’m just a retired guy helping out some poor hill tribe schools when money permits.
Because I live on the border, I’ve gotten to know people in the different ethnic organizations. They have included me in a few meetings for the simple reason that I can present their cause to other Vets. I’m a member of the VFW and will begin posting on some Vet chat pages.
Because the organization I founded is registered in Thailand, it can’t contribute to refugees. I’ve told the ethnic organizations this fact, so their agenda when it comes to me is publicity (I always ask what I can say). Not only will this be beneficial to them but to the Vets also. The Vets spend too much time living n the past and I’d like to get them interested in what is happening now.
As to the hip boots, I hear you. I’ve been around NGOs, UN people, and of course the nut cases that hang out around border areas. I’ll tell you about the nut cases in a personal email. It will make interesting reading for you.
Thanks for putting in a word about Mr. Everetts. I jumped to conclusions about him and therefore got off on the wrong foot. I’ve got your email address from the post you made to Mr. Everetts. Mr. Slade, could you give me your email? Our conversations have strayed from the original article and thread, so I think it is better if we all communicate by email. Also, I think I can rely on you three guys for answers to some questions that I may have now and again.
Dave Everetts: Nice analysis of Burma-China-USA, etc.
Was Thaksin’s VRF loan fund scheme successful?
———————————–
“By May 2005, the VRF disbursed $6.9 billion to 17.8 million borrowers (an average loan size of $387)”. IMPRESSIVE!
“By May 2005, 99.1% of all villages had a VRF in operation and 98.3% of the originally scheduled amount had been distributed.” – IMPRESSIVE!
“Data– SES 2004
* 34,843 households were interviewed from 2,044 municipalities and 1,596 villages
* One sixth of 69,486 adult members borrowed from VRF at least once with higher proportion among the poor and rural areas
* Interest rate was about 6 percent
* Equal share (50%) of VRF loan in agriculture and non-agriculture
* Loan default was about 8 percent
* Some 70% among borrowers believed VRF helped improve their economic situation” – IMPRESSIVE definitely!
“Average treatment effects of VRF participation
* VRF borrowing helps increase per capita expenditure by 5.5% and per capita income by 4.4%
* An average increase of income by 220 baht per month and expenditure by 200 baht
* This rise in income implies a 17.6 percent rate of return to borrowing
* Rates of increase in income and consumption are more for the poor than for the non-poor
* Much of the effects are via farm income
* Farm income rises by 40 percent compared to 9 percent in non-farm income
* VRF is not a consumer credit nor a conduit necessarily for non-farm income growth
* Our results are consistent with other findings based on panel of 960 households from rural Thailand (Kaboski and Townsend)”
“BAAC versus VRF
* Of households covered in 2004,
* —23% borrowed from VRF only
* —15% from both VRF and BAAC
* —6% from BAAC only
* Those who borrow BAAC are slightly poorer and substantially dependent on farm income
* Borrowing from either BAAC or VRF only has small gains compared to borrowing from both sources
* BAAC plus VRF raises expenditure by 9 percent and income by 8.5 percent.
* Many BAAC households are likely to be credit constrained and thus, VRF plays an important complementary role”
_____________________
Cannot deny the conclusions of the study-research by Shahid Khandker of World Bank “Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand?” (Regional Seminar on Poverty Monitoring and Evaluation, Nanchang, China, May 11-12, 2007 )
Thaksin’s VRF Loan scheme worked and worked splendidly according to the purpose it was meant to serve.
People who dislike Thaksin, including yours truly, should still give credit to Thaksin where credit is due. And Thaksin’s VRF scheme should be strengthened and improved – – – because it would go a long way towards reaching the very poor in remote rural villages and improve their living conditions quickly.
Dear NKPVET,
Saw your posting and if you want to meet perhaps we can. I am currently busy with a photo exhibit that I have been working on for entry into the Wyoming State Fair along with building an addition out at my ranch here in Lusk,Wyoming and should be free to meet and talk with you face to face if you so desire.
My e-mail is posted within The New Mandala along with my home phone number.
Oh, by the way if any of New Mandala’s readership desires to see what the Karen National Liberation Army, Colonel Nerdah Mya, and others ( to include myself), just send me a request and I shall be happy to e-mail them (all 328 photos!) out to whomever.
There was a popular story about American and Chinese strategic-interest conflicts in Burma when I was a young boy.
US offered to U Nu’s government to build an eight-lanes super-highway between Rangoon and Mandalay in the 1950s. It would be free of course. Americans said the highway would be so good even jet planes could use it as runways.
Then was the time White-Chinese Koumington troops were still fighting on the border. Chinese Communist government immediately offered to plant huge Banyan trees on the median strip of that proposed highway. Without their giant trees they wouldn’t allow Burmese to accept American offer.
Of course the Burmese government then had to refuse the American’s generous offer. Many old people in Burma are still laughing at Chinese ingenuity to stop American planes from using Rangoon-Mandalay Highway in case of war.
Firstly, there is NO relationship between Bleming and Melton.
Melton has gotten himself involved with the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, a renegade group that may be responsible for the assassination of Pado Manh Sha. By his own words, Melton, a policeman in Oklahoma, interrogated two KNLA soldiers that were captured by the DKB and SPDC. He even had photos of himself doing it on his website. What happened to the two soldiers afterwards is in dispute.
Melton is also involved with Timothy Laklem who you probably already know of, considering that you work with the hill tribes, and Laklem runs something called Asian Tribal Ministries.
By the way, if you get sideways with either Laklem or Melton, you’ll be on the receiving end of threatening emails. Just so you know.
Bleming has stated that Laklem tried to hire him to kill Pado Manh Sha. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but shortly after that meeting, Pado Manh Sha was killed. Bleming was taken before a KNU council and questioned about it. Laklem denies asking Bleming to kill anyone.
Laklem went to the U.S. where he is now. Only he knows why he suddenly left Thailand. Less lead in the air perhaps?
Some of what you’ve mentioned in your original post, especially names, would have been better saved for a private email.
Even though you may have lived in Thailand for a considerable length of time, you apparently don’t know all the players in this little drama.
There are some good and decent people, working quietly to effect change in Burma. I doubt that they would want their names mentioned in a public forum.
In addition, there are those who have their own agenda, and would like nothing more than to throw a wrench in the works by exposing the quiet works of others.
I would suggest that you contact Dave Everett in a private email and get the real lowdown on the situation. I have had lengthy discussions with him, and he knows what he’s talking about – he was there, with boots on the ground, or mud, as it were.
You are exactly right about people stating that they’re CIA, or have links to the CIA. You’ll find them in the most unlikely places – bars, truckstops and whorehouses. Maybe internet forums as well. They rub shoulders with all the self appointed colonels and secret, hush-hush, Delta Force SAS ninja assassins THAT THEY CAN’T TALK ABOUT.
There is a limited – and miniscule – amount of money available, and several different groups vying for it. Anything they can do to prevent someone else from getting it is ok. Lie, cheat, steal, slander, assassinate. It’s all been done before, and will happen again.
The last thing I should tell you is that you need to invest some money in a set of hip waders. Sometimes the bullshit gets high.
Editor’s Note (Nicholas Farrelly): I have allowed the following comment to appear for the information of New Mandala readers. There is no name attached to it and, like with other anonymous contributions, it should be treated with considered caution. I cannot vouch for its origins. Nonetheless some readers may find it useful or interesting. Best wishes to all, NSF.
—————–
RESPONSE TO ASIAVIEWS RE: CHILD SOLDIER ISSUE
Regional News and Special Report.
AsiaViews Edition 1st January 2008.
As I am one of the policy-makers in the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, I cannot speak for the other ethnic armed groups and the Burmese army listed, it may be true in some cases with them. It is obvious that the UN reporters are reporting only from what they hear not what they see. As for the KNU/KNLA Peace Council I know what is truth and what is not.
One of our main aims for pursuing peace is to stop the human rights abuses, forced labour, forced relocation and other crimes that are against humanity. We disagree with the former KNU group in Mae Sot, who extort money from their own people and murder their own innocent Karen, also forcing families to surrender their sons to become child soldiers.
Since we have achieved peace in the 7th Brigade area, we stopped the extortation of money from the former KNU, KNLA, and DKBA; even the KNU/KNLA Peace Council are no exception.
After 58 years of war, seeing all kinds of bad leadership within the former KNU, we took our stand against all corruption and atrocities and came out from under them.
Asiaviews article claiming that the UN reports the KNU/KNLA Peace Council are involved in the crime of recruiting children to be soldiers is totally untrue.
We abhor these practices that we have seen in the past with the KNU under the 58 year revolution, this is one of the main reasons we separated ourselves. It is very shameful that the KNU called themselves the saviour of the Karen but yet committed all these things against our own Karen people.
We have now separated ourselves from these corrupted, criminal leadership and strive to protect our people from all these crimes.
It is extremely irresponsible to report such accusations without proper evidence and investigation.
I can give you a reason why this accusation is not true. Since the KNU/KNLA Peace Council achieved a peace agreement with the Burmese. We have stopped all atrocities against the people in the 7th Brigade area. It is all for the people, not for the benefit of leaders either in the Karen or Burmese.
1. Since we have no war with the Burmese there is no reason to recruit any new soldiers by the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.
2. Recruiting of child soldiers by either the KNU/KNLA Peace Council Forces or anyone else – this is totally against our policies. Our policies are well recorded.
3. Any soldier who wants to join with the KNU/KNLA Peace Council from any army – we will not accept it. Even if the Burmese soldier wishes to defect and join with us – we forbid it.
4. Our goal is not to build military might and to be at war – our goal is to see the people to live in peace and freedom within the area that is under the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.
5. At our request the Burmese Army have moved out of our area, so who do we have fight?
6. We even sent a message to the Burmese army, that KNU/KNLA Peace Council Forces refuses to accept any order from the Burmese army to fight against our own Karen. In other words, we are not bound to the Burmese army as are the DKBA.
7. The UN report of boys being recruited by KNU/KNLA Peace Council from Mae La is totally untrue. It is a fabricated story.
Mae La camp is not under the influence of the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, nor is it under the UN either. Mae La camp is totally controlled by Mansha and his terrorist group, and is influenced by the KNU in Mae Sot. Johnny’s brother is the head of security in Mae La camp. In the past, since last April until now, all the terrorist activities towards the Karen innocent along the border, has come out of Mae La, influenced by Johnny and his brother-in-law. Many Karen innocent people have been terrorized by them when stating their wishes to return to live peacefully in their homeland. Some have been mercilessly killed by Johnny and his militant group. The 4 young boys who are reportedly missing were cold-bloodedly killed by Johnny himself. We received this report last June.
Due to the fact that Mansha is a communist, he is very skilled in propaganda and has used the media to discredit the KNU/KNLA Peace Council in any way possible to shift the blame from himself and his group.
All these atrocities that have happened, we asked repeatedly for the UN to investigate all these atrocities and corruption. But no one has sent any investigation team. They all fall into the manipulation of the KNU EC in Mae Sot, Mansha and his militant group led by Johnny; and they do not venture to seek the truth.
We invite the UN representative in Mae Sot, Elizabeth Kirton to come and see for herself the truth of the KNU/KNLA Peace Council – to come into the Karen Peace Area. For example, last year after the first attack on Gen. Ler Mu in April, Mansha is using the Irrawaddy Magazine to propaganda that Gen. Htay Maung will come and burn the Mae La refugee camps. It is sad, that many of the UN and NGOs believed this. In the end, I called to Elizabeth and told her that these fabricated stories are not true and let her speak in person to Gen. Htay Maung. After talking to him, she believed the truth.
The Irrawaddy Magazine and other Burmese news media that report these fabricated stories are irresponsible.
Last week, Mansha was at his old tricks again, when he reported in the news that Gen. Htay Maung would retaliate the death of his son-in-law, Gen. Ler Mu by attacking the Mae La camp. This is all lies, yet even the Thai forces believe him.
We will hunt down the terrorists who dare do harm to the innocent. We are not of such low mentality as to think to burn down the refugee camp or harm innocent people. We will take out a warrant on these terrorists, whether they be in Mae Sot or any other area. If we do not take action against these terrorists, more innocent lives will be at risk and harmed. Justice must be served for the sake of the innocent.
Everyone seems to turn a blind eye, and let them go, allowing them to continue to kill the innocent. We cannot allow them to get away with cold-blooded murder to the innocent. This is a serious crime against humanity.
I want to challenge the UN and any media, to get their hands in on the truth of matter and not just go by what they hear. The UN need to be serious and set up an investigation team, together with myself, get into the camps and interview the people. The people will only speak the truth if they are assured of their safety from Mansha and Johnny, they will speak the truth if they know they can be whisked away to a safe place. Also, come with me to the KNU/KNLA Peace Council area, I will guarantee the UN team’s safety and conduct interviews with the people there. Then you will know the truth.
Hla Oo: “Glad to meet you too. Though I am a half Mon, our clan is too Burmanised to speak or read Mon language.”
That’s alright, there’s still a lot of ambiguities and nuances in the Burmese translation that have to worked out. I think all the translations of old Burmese books that I’ve compared, fudge a little bit and aren’t exactly true to the original, and that includes The Glass Palace Chronicle for the Pagan period translated by Luce and U Pe Maung Tin. It certainly needs more thorough annotation, and work on the meaning, as when the chronicle throws in Pali terminology. There’s a wonderful passage in the later Pagan period where Queen Saw invokes Buddhist cosmology to give an idea to her husband the king, how insignificant he is in the big scheme of things., for instance.
“I am even willing to come and see you in Bangkok or even in Chaingrai.”
If you ever come to Bangkok drop me a line at the Bangkok Post, I’m there everyday, 9 to 5 or 6 or 7. You would probably like Maesai in Chiang Rai, all the Burmese friends I used to have who worked on ships liked to go up there to get a little taste of their homeland. Some of them couldn’t go home for various reasons, so it’s the only contact they had for decades.
We can talk about his “markedly pro-poor” policies as much as we like, but in the big picture, is it worth his markedly anti-poor policies, you know, like the rampant corruption and tax fraud activities. And the markedly pro-death policies like drug wars and southern violence, we must also bear in mind.
Hi !! everybordy friends Lao people studying in vientnam
I’m want friends studying in vientnam . I hope you are friends
add me please m_poun@hotmail (enjoy na ja)
The VRF programme might be the most “ambitious” microcredit programme, like the paper claims, but how successful is it actually? How does it compare to the Grameen bank programme, for instance?
There is currently a rural debt moratorium with debt payments delayed. If debt payments weren’t delayed would there be high default rates signaling ineffective use of the funds? I know the SME loans were plagued with problems.
Is this a just non-transparent off-balance money grant, an injection of fiscal spending into the economy to temporarily stimulate the economy, or does it actually strengthen the competitiveness of the economy in the future and contribute to future economic growth?
Hi MKPVET,thanks for the info on the report. I think your analysis of US support of the ousting of the regime in Burma is correct. China would not stand idily by if that happened and India would support the US in any action and the whole thing would get bigger than Ben Hur. Burma’s unique geopolitical positions unfortunatally plays into the hands of its ruling junta. They play the Chinese off against the Thais and the Indian’s and nobody wants Chinese war ships stationed in the Andaman Sea as that would put China in the unique position of choking off the Malacca Straits and bringing Japan and South Korea to their knees economically if trade was cut off. It is a terribly sad situation, however, hope and faith can sustain oppressed people and that is what all of us I trying to do I hope. As Mr Slade said, if we all united and work towards a common goal to free the people of Burma from their oppression then we are assisting and maintaining that hope for them. I’ll look forward to catching up with you in Thailand.
Cheers,
Colum Graham quotes: “Democracy succeeds in societies where enough of the major social forces come to realize that elections, parliaments, and public debate (for all their messy faults) are better ways to resolve the conflicts in society than power, repression, exclusion, and violence.”
Got the election, got the parliament, but didn’t get much of the debate you normally see accompanying the passage of laws in parliament. Parliament doesn’t seem to have been used as a forum for lawmaking since that recordbreaking series of laws passed by the NLA at the end of their tenure?
Seems like every policy action is done unilaterally by the executive branch. Those parties outside of the coalition have been excluded as a result. Doesn’t democracy entail actually using the parliament for something other than appointing a Prime Minister and cabinet and then modifying the constitution?
Yes Frank, one government after another. I understand that the PAD is just the latest one to do so (and I’m sure, not the only group), but to clarify all the hot air I blew in that last comment; for Thai politics to move forward, those popularizing silly prejudices need to be satirized and mocked in Thailand for creating anti-constitutional social divisions. That way, these prejudices are fleeting and everyone can get over it and move forward. The mold will be broken if a democratic system is allowed to maintain civil power.
Your are correct. I didn’t read your book. I assumed from your background, postings, and website that you were fighting with the Karen inside Burma. It was stupid for me to make assumptions without reading your book. I always rant at people who say they know a person’s position without reading their book. I stand corrected.
My apologies and I will read your book. No insults were intended.
Try to understand that I’ve been in Thailand for about 25 years and have met many “soldiers of fortune” who were just wannabes. You wouldn’t believe the number of guys I’ve met in bars who tell me that they are CIA. So, over the years I have become rather suspicious and cynical.
That obviously contributed to me jumping the gun about you. Once again my apologies.
I have not been on any quests for years and even if I wanted to partake of one (and I’ve been offered the opportunity from time to time), I’m too old.
In the service, unlike you, I was a REMF. Military intelligence and SAR. Even though you were a SAS fighter and I was an analyst, we do have a bond as being ex military.
Dave, maybe we could link up in person some time when you’re in Thailand. In your tunnel story on the website you wrote about the Madrid. As I mentioned in the post, that brought back a lot of memories. I’ll write to you on your website.
The document:
I have a Thai friend from years ago that I worked with. The guy is still working and has risen in rank. He, his boss and others argue that the USA will help Burma. I argue that it will not. The USA is going broke and the military is too strung out.
A friend flashed the document briefly maybe to make his point. It is not a secret or even confidential document. They do not show it to the ethnic leaders because (my speculation) they do not want to get their hopes up.
Mr. Slade, sorry for the confusion. Last night I got American Dave’s phone number from a friend. I want to call him to see if he has a spot for a mother and daughter who want to help the refugees. This will only be for a month or two.
The real benefit comes from the fact that the mom is a multi-millionaire and the daughter is finishing her 1st year of medical school. These could be very good sources of publicity and funds for Mr. David, or perhaps the lady who operates the clinic in Mae Sot.
Mr. Slade, let’s keep in touch. I run a volunteer foundation for the hill tribes. No one takes a salary or even expenses. Since it is registered in Thailand, it cannot help refugees. I help the refugees out of my own pocket and with actions.
Most people I meet and speak with want to help the refugees rather than the hill tribes. The way I see it, I might as well pass them on to you people. Help is help.
I would also like to meet the fellow you linked up with, Pastor Melton. Also Mr. Bleming.
When we get to know more about each other, I would like to have all you people come visit me and meet the people I know. I believe it would be beneficial for all. Networking never hurts as long as it involves the right people.
Good luck, thanks for the constructive criticism, and for pointing out the errors in my post.
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“We’re preparing for a confrontation”
Karens fighting Karens, bloodshed among brothers, the same as in the Delta 30 years ago. History is repeating again. Why? Or just a sad story of Burma!
PAD – ready for violence
Sidh: It is not laboratory research that I am involved in but rather the application of ant social life (following in the sociobiological steps of Wilson) to Thai politics. This approach must have been too complicated for me, thus making me unable to summarize 10 years of “very complex and dynamic interplay” in meaningful 300-500 words. Note that my previous comment was about a very small issue of all that interplay. Since you have such a good grasp of this period, and are probably not involved with ants, perhaps you are in a better position than me for doing this job. Moreover, you also seem to be extremely unbiased. Good luck.
Thaksin’s village funds: “markedly pro-poor”
With a very limited knowledge of finance, I instinctively believe in micro-credit schemes and agree that VRF scheme should be “strengthened and improved” – at least with greater transparency in the process and better financial advice to borrowers. I understand that the Grameen Bank has a very percentage of small loan default (less than 2% if I remember correctly which is very impressive especially when compared with defaults by rich borrowers) and I hope VRF can emulate that.
PAD – ready for violence
Today’s Bangkokpost editorial on PPP’s proposed amendment of Article 63 which directly targets PAD’s protest:
A direct threat to basic rights
in
http://www.bangkokpost.com/070808_News/07Aug2008_news019.php
PAD – ready for violence
A good article in Bangkokpost on violence in Thai politics from AjarnNidhi Eoseewong:
BARBARITY IN POLITICS: Breaking the vicious cycle of violence
in
http://www.bangkokpost.net/060808_News/06Aug2008_news24.php
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Charles F.: Thanks for the information about Melton, Bleming, and Laklem. I don’t know them and I’ll stay clear. American Dave is a known guy so I think I’ll just contact him about the potential volunteers and/or donors.
You’re right. I don’t know much about the players in the Burma theater. The people I mentioned in the first post all gave me permission to use their names. Also, I gave them the address of the Mandala so they can add comments and information if they so desire. One has contacted me and says he will write in soon. These guys are all known by everyone. Trust me on that.
Don’t worry about making suggestions, etc. The reason I’m hanging around this forum is to increase my knowledge. To put things in perspective: I do not go into Burma. I am not a missionary, mercenary, intel guy, or anything else. I’m just a retired guy helping out some poor hill tribe schools when money permits.
Because I live on the border, I’ve gotten to know people in the different ethnic organizations. They have included me in a few meetings for the simple reason that I can present their cause to other Vets. I’m a member of the VFW and will begin posting on some Vet chat pages.
Because the organization I founded is registered in Thailand, it can’t contribute to refugees. I’ve told the ethnic organizations this fact, so their agenda when it comes to me is publicity (I always ask what I can say). Not only will this be beneficial to them but to the Vets also. The Vets spend too much time living n the past and I’d like to get them interested in what is happening now.
As to the hip boots, I hear you. I’ve been around NGOs, UN people, and of course the nut cases that hang out around border areas. I’ll tell you about the nut cases in a personal email. It will make interesting reading for you.
Thanks for putting in a word about Mr. Everetts. I jumped to conclusions about him and therefore got off on the wrong foot. I’ve got your email address from the post you made to Mr. Everetts. Mr. Slade, could you give me your email? Our conversations have strayed from the original article and thread, so I think it is better if we all communicate by email. Also, I think I can rely on you three guys for answers to some questions that I may have now and again.
Dave Everetts: Nice analysis of Burma-China-USA, etc.
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Colonel Bleming,
Will these photos be autographed, or do we have to pay extra to get that?
Thaksin’s village funds: “markedly pro-poor”
Was Thaksin’s VRF loan fund scheme successful?
———————————–
“By May 2005, the VRF disbursed $6.9 billion to 17.8 million borrowers (an average loan size of $387)”. IMPRESSIVE!
“By May 2005, 99.1% of all villages had a VRF in operation and 98.3% of the originally scheduled amount had been distributed.” – IMPRESSIVE!
“Data– SES 2004
* 34,843 households were interviewed from 2,044 municipalities and 1,596 villages
* One sixth of 69,486 adult members borrowed from VRF at least once with higher proportion among the poor and rural areas
* Interest rate was about 6 percent
* Equal share (50%) of VRF loan in agriculture and non-agriculture
* Loan default was about 8 percent
* Some 70% among borrowers believed VRF helped improve their economic situation” – IMPRESSIVE definitely!
“Average treatment effects of VRF participation
* VRF borrowing helps increase per capita expenditure by 5.5% and per capita income by 4.4%
* An average increase of income by 220 baht per month and expenditure by 200 baht
* This rise in income implies a 17.6 percent rate of return to borrowing
* Rates of increase in income and consumption are more for the poor than for the non-poor
* Much of the effects are via farm income
* Farm income rises by 40 percent compared to 9 percent in non-farm income
* VRF is not a consumer credit nor a conduit necessarily for non-farm income growth
* Our results are consistent with other findings based on panel of 960 households from rural Thailand (Kaboski and Townsend)”
“BAAC versus VRF
* Of households covered in 2004,
* —23% borrowed from VRF only
* —15% from both VRF and BAAC
* —6% from BAAC only
* Those who borrow BAAC are slightly poorer and substantially dependent on farm income
* Borrowing from either BAAC or VRF only has small gains compared to borrowing from both sources
* BAAC plus VRF raises expenditure by 9 percent and income by 8.5 percent.
* Many BAAC households are likely to be credit constrained and thus, VRF plays an important complementary role”
_____________________
Cannot deny the conclusions of the study-research by Shahid Khandker of World Bank “Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand?” (Regional Seminar on Poverty Monitoring and Evaluation, Nanchang, China, May 11-12, 2007 )
Thaksin’s VRF Loan scheme worked and worked splendidly according to the purpose it was meant to serve.
People who dislike Thaksin, including yours truly, should still give credit to Thaksin where credit is due. And Thaksin’s VRF scheme should be strengthened and improved – – – because it would go a long way towards reaching the very poor in remote rural villages and improve their living conditions quickly.
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Dear NKPVET,
Saw your posting and if you want to meet perhaps we can. I am currently busy with a photo exhibit that I have been working on for entry into the Wyoming State Fair along with building an addition out at my ranch here in Lusk,Wyoming and should be free to meet and talk with you face to face if you so desire.
My e-mail is posted within The New Mandala along with my home phone number.
Oh, by the way if any of New Mandala’s readership desires to see what the Karen National Liberation Army, Colonel Nerdah Mya, and others ( to include myself), just send me a request and I shall be happy to e-mail them (all 328 photos!) out to whomever.
I have released all as PUBLIC DOMAIN.
My e-mail address is: [email protected]
Sincerely,
Thomas Bleming
Rambo and the real war in Burma
There was a popular story about American and Chinese strategic-interest conflicts in Burma when I was a young boy.
US offered to U Nu’s government to build an eight-lanes super-highway between Rangoon and Mandalay in the 1950s. It would be free of course. Americans said the highway would be so good even jet planes could use it as runways.
Then was the time White-Chinese Koumington troops were still fighting on the border. Chinese Communist government immediately offered to plant huge Banyan trees on the median strip of that proposed highway. Without their giant trees they wouldn’t allow Burmese to accept American offer.
Of course the Burmese government then had to refuse the American’s generous offer. Many old people in Burma are still laughing at Chinese ingenuity to stop American planes from using Rangoon-Mandalay Highway in case of war.
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Dear NKPVET,
A couple of points to make, if you don’t mind.
Firstly, there is NO relationship between Bleming and Melton.
Melton has gotten himself involved with the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, a renegade group that may be responsible for the assassination of Pado Manh Sha. By his own words, Melton, a policeman in Oklahoma, interrogated two KNLA soldiers that were captured by the DKB and SPDC. He even had photos of himself doing it on his website. What happened to the two soldiers afterwards is in dispute.
Melton is also involved with Timothy Laklem who you probably already know of, considering that you work with the hill tribes, and Laklem runs something called Asian Tribal Ministries.
By the way, if you get sideways with either Laklem or Melton, you’ll be on the receiving end of threatening emails. Just so you know.
Bleming has stated that Laklem tried to hire him to kill Pado Manh Sha. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but shortly after that meeting, Pado Manh Sha was killed. Bleming was taken before a KNU council and questioned about it. Laklem denies asking Bleming to kill anyone.
Laklem went to the U.S. where he is now. Only he knows why he suddenly left Thailand. Less lead in the air perhaps?
Some of what you’ve mentioned in your original post, especially names, would have been better saved for a private email.
Even though you may have lived in Thailand for a considerable length of time, you apparently don’t know all the players in this little drama.
There are some good and decent people, working quietly to effect change in Burma. I doubt that they would want their names mentioned in a public forum.
In addition, there are those who have their own agenda, and would like nothing more than to throw a wrench in the works by exposing the quiet works of others.
I would suggest that you contact Dave Everett in a private email and get the real lowdown on the situation. I have had lengthy discussions with him, and he knows what he’s talking about – he was there, with boots on the ground, or mud, as it were.
You are exactly right about people stating that they’re CIA, or have links to the CIA. You’ll find them in the most unlikely places – bars, truckstops and whorehouses. Maybe internet forums as well. They rub shoulders with all the self appointed colonels and secret, hush-hush, Delta Force SAS ninja assassins THAT THEY CAN’T TALK ABOUT.
There is a limited – and miniscule – amount of money available, and several different groups vying for it. Anything they can do to prevent someone else from getting it is ok. Lie, cheat, steal, slander, assassinate. It’s all been done before, and will happen again.
The last thing I should tell you is that you need to invest some money in a set of hip waders. Sometimes the bullshit gets high.
“We’re preparing for a confrontation”
Editor’s Note (Nicholas Farrelly): I have allowed the following comment to appear for the information of New Mandala readers. There is no name attached to it and, like with other anonymous contributions, it should be treated with considered caution. I cannot vouch for its origins. Nonetheless some readers may find it useful or interesting. Best wishes to all, NSF.
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RESPONSE TO ASIAVIEWS RE: CHILD SOLDIER ISSUE
Regional News and Special Report.
AsiaViews Edition 1st January 2008.
As I am one of the policy-makers in the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, I cannot speak for the other ethnic armed groups and the Burmese army listed, it may be true in some cases with them. It is obvious that the UN reporters are reporting only from what they hear not what they see. As for the KNU/KNLA Peace Council I know what is truth and what is not.
One of our main aims for pursuing peace is to stop the human rights abuses, forced labour, forced relocation and other crimes that are against humanity. We disagree with the former KNU group in Mae Sot, who extort money from their own people and murder their own innocent Karen, also forcing families to surrender their sons to become child soldiers.
Since we have achieved peace in the 7th Brigade area, we stopped the extortation of money from the former KNU, KNLA, and DKBA; even the KNU/KNLA Peace Council are no exception.
After 58 years of war, seeing all kinds of bad leadership within the former KNU, we took our stand against all corruption and atrocities and came out from under them.
Asiaviews article claiming that the UN reports the KNU/KNLA Peace Council are involved in the crime of recruiting children to be soldiers is totally untrue.
We abhor these practices that we have seen in the past with the KNU under the 58 year revolution, this is one of the main reasons we separated ourselves. It is very shameful that the KNU called themselves the saviour of the Karen but yet committed all these things against our own Karen people.
We have now separated ourselves from these corrupted, criminal leadership and strive to protect our people from all these crimes.
It is extremely irresponsible to report such accusations without proper evidence and investigation.
I can give you a reason why this accusation is not true. Since the KNU/KNLA Peace Council achieved a peace agreement with the Burmese. We have stopped all atrocities against the people in the 7th Brigade area. It is all for the people, not for the benefit of leaders either in the Karen or Burmese.
1. Since we have no war with the Burmese there is no reason to recruit any new soldiers by the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.
2. Recruiting of child soldiers by either the KNU/KNLA Peace Council Forces or anyone else – this is totally against our policies. Our policies are well recorded.
3. Any soldier who wants to join with the KNU/KNLA Peace Council from any army – we will not accept it. Even if the Burmese soldier wishes to defect and join with us – we forbid it.
4. Our goal is not to build military might and to be at war – our goal is to see the people to live in peace and freedom within the area that is under the KNU/KNLA Peace Council.
5. At our request the Burmese Army have moved out of our area, so who do we have fight?
6. We even sent a message to the Burmese army, that KNU/KNLA Peace Council Forces refuses to accept any order from the Burmese army to fight against our own Karen. In other words, we are not bound to the Burmese army as are the DKBA.
7. The UN report of boys being recruited by KNU/KNLA Peace Council from Mae La is totally untrue. It is a fabricated story.
Mae La camp is not under the influence of the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, nor is it under the UN either. Mae La camp is totally controlled by Mansha and his terrorist group, and is influenced by the KNU in Mae Sot. Johnny’s brother is the head of security in Mae La camp. In the past, since last April until now, all the terrorist activities towards the Karen innocent along the border, has come out of Mae La, influenced by Johnny and his brother-in-law. Many Karen innocent people have been terrorized by them when stating their wishes to return to live peacefully in their homeland. Some have been mercilessly killed by Johnny and his militant group. The 4 young boys who are reportedly missing were cold-bloodedly killed by Johnny himself. We received this report last June.
Due to the fact that Mansha is a communist, he is very skilled in propaganda and has used the media to discredit the KNU/KNLA Peace Council in any way possible to shift the blame from himself and his group.
All these atrocities that have happened, we asked repeatedly for the UN to investigate all these atrocities and corruption. But no one has sent any investigation team. They all fall into the manipulation of the KNU EC in Mae Sot, Mansha and his militant group led by Johnny; and they do not venture to seek the truth.
We invite the UN representative in Mae Sot, Elizabeth Kirton to come and see for herself the truth of the KNU/KNLA Peace Council – to come into the Karen Peace Area. For example, last year after the first attack on Gen. Ler Mu in April, Mansha is using the Irrawaddy Magazine to propaganda that Gen. Htay Maung will come and burn the Mae La refugee camps. It is sad, that many of the UN and NGOs believed this. In the end, I called to Elizabeth and told her that these fabricated stories are not true and let her speak in person to Gen. Htay Maung. After talking to him, she believed the truth.
The Irrawaddy Magazine and other Burmese news media that report these fabricated stories are irresponsible.
Last week, Mansha was at his old tricks again, when he reported in the news that Gen. Htay Maung would retaliate the death of his son-in-law, Gen. Ler Mu by attacking the Mae La camp. This is all lies, yet even the Thai forces believe him.
We will hunt down the terrorists who dare do harm to the innocent. We are not of such low mentality as to think to burn down the refugee camp or harm innocent people. We will take out a warrant on these terrorists, whether they be in Mae Sot or any other area. If we do not take action against these terrorists, more innocent lives will be at risk and harmed. Justice must be served for the sake of the innocent.
Everyone seems to turn a blind eye, and let them go, allowing them to continue to kill the innocent. We cannot allow them to get away with cold-blooded murder to the innocent. This is a serious crime against humanity.
I want to challenge the UN and any media, to get their hands in on the truth of matter and not just go by what they hear. The UN need to be serious and set up an investigation team, together with myself, get into the camps and interview the people. The people will only speak the truth if they are assured of their safety from Mansha and Johnny, they will speak the truth if they know they can be whisked away to a safe place. Also, come with me to the KNU/KNLA Peace Council area, I will guarantee the UN team’s safety and conduct interviews with the people there. Then you will know the truth.
The horror of political violence in Burma
Hla Oo: “Glad to meet you too. Though I am a half Mon, our clan is too Burmanised to speak or read Mon language.”
That’s alright, there’s still a lot of ambiguities and nuances in the Burmese translation that have to worked out. I think all the translations of old Burmese books that I’ve compared, fudge a little bit and aren’t exactly true to the original, and that includes The Glass Palace Chronicle for the Pagan period translated by Luce and U Pe Maung Tin. It certainly needs more thorough annotation, and work on the meaning, as when the chronicle throws in Pali terminology. There’s a wonderful passage in the later Pagan period where Queen Saw invokes Buddhist cosmology to give an idea to her husband the king, how insignificant he is in the big scheme of things., for instance.
“I am even willing to come and see you in Bangkok or even in Chaingrai.”
If you ever come to Bangkok drop me a line at the Bangkok Post, I’m there everyday, 9 to 5 or 6 or 7. You would probably like Maesai in Chiang Rai, all the Burmese friends I used to have who worked on ships liked to go up there to get a little taste of their homeland. Some of them couldn’t go home for various reasons, so it’s the only contact they had for decades.
Thaksin’s village funds: “markedly pro-poor”
We can talk about his “markedly pro-poor” policies as much as we like, but in the big picture, is it worth his markedly anti-poor policies, you know, like the rampant corruption and tax fraud activities. And the markedly pro-death policies like drug wars and southern violence, we must also bear in mind.
Lao explorers reach Vietnam on Italian Scooters
Hi !! everybordy friends Lao people studying in vientnam
I’m want friends studying in vientnam . I hope you are friends
add me please m_poun@hotmail (enjoy na ja)
Thaksin’s village funds: “markedly pro-poor”
The VRF programme might be the most “ambitious” microcredit programme, like the paper claims, but how successful is it actually? How does it compare to the Grameen bank programme, for instance?
There is currently a rural debt moratorium with debt payments delayed. If debt payments weren’t delayed would there be high default rates signaling ineffective use of the funds? I know the SME loans were plagued with problems.
Is this a just non-transparent off-balance money grant, an injection of fiscal spending into the economy to temporarily stimulate the economy, or does it actually strengthen the competitiveness of the economy in the future and contribute to future economic growth?
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Hi MKPVET,thanks for the info on the report. I think your analysis of US support of the ousting of the regime in Burma is correct. China would not stand idily by if that happened and India would support the US in any action and the whole thing would get bigger than Ben Hur. Burma’s unique geopolitical positions unfortunatally plays into the hands of its ruling junta. They play the Chinese off against the Thais and the Indian’s and nobody wants Chinese war ships stationed in the Andaman Sea as that would put China in the unique position of choking off the Malacca Straits and bringing Japan and South Korea to their knees economically if trade was cut off. It is a terribly sad situation, however, hope and faith can sustain oppressed people and that is what all of us I trying to do I hope. As Mr Slade said, if we all united and work towards a common goal to free the people of Burma from their oppression then we are assisting and maintaining that hope for them. I’ll look forward to catching up with you in Thailand.
Cheers,
dave
A way forward for Thai politics?
Colum Graham quotes: “Democracy succeeds in societies where enough of the major social forces come to realize that elections, parliaments, and public debate (for all their messy faults) are better ways to resolve the conflicts in society than power, repression, exclusion, and violence.”
Got the election, got the parliament, but didn’t get much of the debate you normally see accompanying the passage of laws in parliament. Parliament doesn’t seem to have been used as a forum for lawmaking since that recordbreaking series of laws passed by the NLA at the end of their tenure?
Seems like every policy action is done unilaterally by the executive branch. Those parties outside of the coalition have been excluded as a result. Doesn’t democracy entail actually using the parliament for something other than appointing a Prime Minister and cabinet and then modifying the constitution?
A way forward for Thai politics?
Yes Frank, one government after another. I understand that the PAD is just the latest one to do so (and I’m sure, not the only group), but to clarify all the hot air I blew in that last comment; for Thai politics to move forward, those popularizing silly prejudices need to be satirized and mocked in Thailand for creating anti-constitutional social divisions. That way, these prejudices are fleeting and everyone can get over it and move forward. The mold will be broken if a democratic system is allowed to maintain civil power.
Rambo and the real war in Burma
Dave:
Your are correct. I didn’t read your book. I assumed from your background, postings, and website that you were fighting with the Karen inside Burma. It was stupid for me to make assumptions without reading your book. I always rant at people who say they know a person’s position without reading their book. I stand corrected.
My apologies and I will read your book. No insults were intended.
Try to understand that I’ve been in Thailand for about 25 years and have met many “soldiers of fortune” who were just wannabes. You wouldn’t believe the number of guys I’ve met in bars who tell me that they are CIA. So, over the years I have become rather suspicious and cynical.
That obviously contributed to me jumping the gun about you. Once again my apologies.
I have not been on any quests for years and even if I wanted to partake of one (and I’ve been offered the opportunity from time to time), I’m too old.
In the service, unlike you, I was a REMF. Military intelligence and SAR. Even though you were a SAS fighter and I was an analyst, we do have a bond as being ex military.
Dave, maybe we could link up in person some time when you’re in Thailand. In your tunnel story on the website you wrote about the Madrid. As I mentioned in the post, that brought back a lot of memories. I’ll write to you on your website.
The document:
I have a Thai friend from years ago that I worked with. The guy is still working and has risen in rank. He, his boss and others argue that the USA will help Burma. I argue that it will not. The USA is going broke and the military is too strung out.
A friend flashed the document briefly maybe to make his point. It is not a secret or even confidential document. They do not show it to the ethnic leaders because (my speculation) they do not want to get their hopes up.
Mr. Slade, sorry for the confusion. Last night I got American Dave’s phone number from a friend. I want to call him to see if he has a spot for a mother and daughter who want to help the refugees. This will only be for a month or two.
The real benefit comes from the fact that the mom is a multi-millionaire and the daughter is finishing her 1st year of medical school. These could be very good sources of publicity and funds for Mr. David, or perhaps the lady who operates the clinic in Mae Sot.
Mr. Slade, let’s keep in touch. I run a volunteer foundation for the hill tribes. No one takes a salary or even expenses. Since it is registered in Thailand, it cannot help refugees. I help the refugees out of my own pocket and with actions.
Most people I meet and speak with want to help the refugees rather than the hill tribes. The way I see it, I might as well pass them on to you people. Help is help.
I would also like to meet the fellow you linked up with, Pastor Melton. Also Mr. Bleming.
When we get to know more about each other, I would like to have all you people come visit me and meet the people I know. I believe it would be beneficial for all. Networking never hurts as long as it involves the right people.
Good luck, thanks for the constructive criticism, and for pointing out the errors in my post.