Hi Keith, ouch! Am I bound by consultant solidarity to stand by the overall conclusion of the review? I hope not. There is a debate to be had about the costs and benefits of the project at a national level, but I don’t think the evidence in the report necessarily justified such a confident conclusion. I am sure you have some idea of how these things get written! My main aim was, and still is, to highlight the problems with a resettlement action plan that most people seemed to assess on volume rather than content.
There is a new theory. Sonti Limtongkul is a foreign agent–doesn’t he look like one?–intent on subverting Thailand, hence his persistent effort at bringing anarchy to the country. He will never stop until Thailand lies in shreds. Unfortunately, there are lots of fools in Thailand who listen to this crook instead of tearing him to pieces. He is truly a bad medicine for us Thais.
There was an article in the Bangkok Post early this week about the current huge backlog of police cases, many of which are lese majeste cases, so that might answer the question of why there was such a long delay in the Jakrapob case.
Some people may not know until long after the fact, that something they said was interpreted in a negative way by some third party they hardly know, and reported secretly to the police, for instance, even this sentence I write now, perhaps pointing out a major flaw in the LM law, which clearly needs to reformed so that it does not become an instrument of partisan politics adding fuel to the already raging flames.
That is, unless the generalised state of fear consistent with the uncertainty and delays described above is actually an intended part of the law’s effect, which I find that hard to believe, because Thailand is not Burma.
Don Jameson – claims to be a political officer in Burma (when?) and (on another blog) to have been a political officer in Cambodia during the Lon Nol period. He also apparently reads and comments on http://blog.beliefnet.com/godspolitics/2008/06/a-quiet-revolt-in-burma-by-eug.html#comments
But I can’t find anything under his name other than comments that almost all begin by claiming the residence halo. I’d like to see the sustained critical analysis he has completed. Where would I look? Recently declassified State Department documents perhaps?
Real change can only stem from inside, with a little help maybe. Ever thought of arming the next uprising to level the playing field a bit? The fire next time…. bound to come while we are busy pontificating given the junta’s intransigence and lust for power. Or would it be more ritual condemnation ad nauseum ad infinitum?
[…] finished reading Andrew Walker (of New Mandala blogospheric fame) and Tim Forsyth’s new book, Forest Guardians, Forest Destroyers. The politics of environmental knowledge in Northern Thailand, out from University of Washington Press. […]
NKPVET, the civil war is off topic although it’s important as the context when we are talking about war crimes and human rights violations. BTW what gave you the idea I’m a Ms ?! I’m just another old fogey leading a cosy life in the West and shouting from the sidelines. I am NOT a capitalist. Admittedly there are good capitalists but everyone gets sucked into a deadly vortex of capitalist competition and most lose their innate humanity in pursuit of profit.
True, totalitarian rule and capitalism is a deadly mix. Il Duce and the Fuhrer were the extreme examples, and the Burmese junta is just as detrimental to the nation it rules over though not a threat at least not directly to the region. Burma, let’s not forget, is historically a natural land empire similar to Russia and China, her expansionism at its height in the latter part of the 18th C and the earlier part of the 19th C before she came to grief when she took on the industrial might of the British Empire.
If you are so interested in the civil war in Burma I’d suggest you look up “Panglong Conference” and “Communist Party of Burma” in Wiki for some background. I have no idea how to get the links up here without crashing! Martin Smith’s “Burma – Insugency and the Politics of Ethnicity ” 1991 Zed Books, London, is a definitive reference on the subject. It is a three way struggle between the government and army dominated by Socialists from the early days of independence on one side and the CPB and the nationalities on the other. United fronts come and go among the rebels, the latest one pointedly excluding the CPB as just another bunch of Burman chauvinists like all other Burman groups.
There is no way genuine national reconciliation is going to be happen without the ultimate overthrow of the junta in its current or future incarnations since it is the embodiment of Burman militarism and chauvinism. Above all there is no way the nationalities can do it on their own without involving the majority Burmans both above and underground in an broad and effective united front. Neither side is blameless for the continuation of the conflict, although you have to lay the lion’s share of the blame squarely at the door of the military dictatorship, even if colonialists in their past and present incarnations too did and continue to have a hand in kindling and stoking the fires of communal strife. So “great white saviours” beware as you stand out like a sore thumb, not least compounded by the religious divide.
Civil war, renewed and reinvigorated, is by no means a foregone conclusion once the junta is out of the picture. There just is no political will on the part of the junta though everyone else is willing to find a political solution. The more durable the junta proves to be the more arduous the task. Refugee camps along the border have seen new generations grow up with bitterness and resentment just as in Palestine. Separatist goals are likely to regain currency. There’s a real risk of hard learned and costly lessons from the protracted civil war of six decades and lost generations now being lost to the young, only to repeat the same historical mistakes of fragmentation and disunity in the fight against the common enemy, the military dictatorship. This great nation deserves a real break long overdue. It’s a crime to allow the conflict to smoulder on and keep the country down in this interminable hell of repression and underdevelopment.
Grasshopper, you have a good liberal and legal mind. The sans frontiere idea however is a nice liberal pipe dream just like the world government they were going on about so much 30 years ago. There may be a pretty good viable EU now but it mainly works in favour of international capital, bankers and ruling elites. And it plays into the hands of those who wish to impose their own model of society on the rest of us. Remember TINA that Mrs Thatcher was so fond of?
This conversation is beginning to reflect the craziness that characteriszes most of the commentary on Burma. The county’s isolation apparently invites wild speculation on the assumption that none of this can actually be verified on the spot. Much of this comes out of Bangkok, where Thai cultural distain for Burma (“a poor country with a naked king” as portrayed in the King and I) combines with the search for sensational stories by journalists to create a heady brew of misinformation. When I was in Burma we spent much of our time knocking down erroneous or exaggerated reports out of Bangkok, supposedly based on informants in Burma, many of which could be verified as ridiculous simply by walking down the street. In many respects Burma is a fairly normal traditional Southeast Asian society, especially in rural areas. It is also extremely rich in natural resources as well as agricultural productivity. Traveleing through central Burma I was often amazed by the bounty of the land. The idea that a country like this can somehow be bludgeoned into submission through “isolation” is ludicrous on the face of it for anyone who takes the time to see what the place is really like. But if one is sitting in Bangkok apparently it is easy to conjure up the picture of a starving people wallowing in poverty or as in the book “Finding George Orwell in Burma” (written by a Bangkok based journalist) a living version of 1984. These portrayals are so far from the mark as to constitute fiction rather than journalism. I think jonfernquest has dealt pretty will with the question of internal vs external change and sanctions of any kind are mostly symbolic to make outsiders feel that they are doing something useful. The idea that the Burmese leaders have vast amounts of money stashed abroad is another myth. They have little or no interest in leaving their own country (they never travel outside Burma except on short official visits) and in general live a rather simple and austere lifestyle (as do most Burmese). Hard as it may be for many outsiders to believe they are not frivilous even though they may be ignorant and misguided. It is hard to understand how isolation and sanctions can be a remedy for this situation. What Burma needs is more exposure to the outside world so that some of these outmoded ideas can be challenged and shown to be out of date (by at least a century). This would also open opportunites for the Burmese people in general to benefit from new ideas and exposure to what is happening in the rest of the world. That is the way for outside influence to make itself felt. Isolation just retards the process and leaves no alternative to change through internal forces. In short, the outside world needs to completely rethink its attitude toward Burma and adopt policies that are baseed on a realistic assessment of the situation there rather than on hopes of forcing change flowing in large part from a farytale view of what Burma is all about.
Don Jameson: “To suggest that such carefully and painstakingly developed knowledge is less meaningful than wild opinions based on often sensationalized media reporting boggles the mind.”
Exactly. Living in Mae Sot in the early 1990s there was an endless stream of amateur photojournalists, journalists, and strange military types hoping to, apparently, make a name for themselves, get that 15 minute Andy Warhol sound bite of fame. And they all produced the same cookie cutter story and photos. Now it’s Rambo-craze time.
The tragedy is that the country has been isolated for so long (~46 years), that the vast majority of people know nothing else. I think it’s a mute point whether you freeze some nasty dictator’s assets or try an arms embargo, they’ll just find some way around it and adapt as they have for the last 20 years.
It may be a harsh reality, but after 20 years, the generals have won and are still firmly in power. In order that the people can quickly carry on normal trade, educational, and other relations with the outside world, and end their isolation, and not all die in the next major natural disaster, IMHO the ending of sanctions and normalisation of relations is necessary, but that will never happen, so I predict that China will continue to become more important in Burma via Yunnan.
Steinberg suggesting that political change must be internally driven begs the question of why there has been so little change since 1962. It also ignores that most political change (generally) is not entirely internally driven.
To get externally driven change first a country needs relations with outside world. 46+ years of isolation.
Wouldn’t a well planned and thought out agricultural policy be better than an ad hoc policy that only reacts, essentially giving in to (in an ad hoc fashion) every demonstration that arises?
Are they just going to keep giving in until the government budget runs out and inflation eventually spirals out of control? (See Krugman’s article on wage price spiral and inflation. There is a recently resurrected government organic farming promotion programme.)
It’s not just the BBC that had its eye off the ball when it came to the cyclone. My husband is a meteorologist, and as such belongs to an internet user group whose members exchange data about impending weather events. Before Cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh in 2007, meteorologists from around the world were warning that Bangladesh could have a catastrophe on its hands, and were hoping that the Bangladesh government was aware of the approaching calamity. When it came to Nargis, the international community of meteorologists was, apparently, strangely silent. I’m not sure whether they didn’t have the data, whether the data was unclear or whether they simply regarded Burma as an unknown place and therefore unimportant – whatever, it is interesting to note the different responses to the two situations.
I saw this guy talking about Jakrapob on the PAD stage and he is exposing a Lese Majeste conspiracy involving corrupt media – simple. Jonathan Head had a obsession with the monarchy, he dare not attack his own queen and as a foreigner should know better; I guess he must be a newbie!
Garlic is considered as vulnerable crop when we take into account strong competition of large and firm garlic bulbs from China. With a surge of fertilizer price, chemically based garlic farmers will face financial loss again. The “subsidy economy” will not be the answer. Currently in Mae Hong Sorn, small groups of farmers across districts, assisted by local NGO, have formed themselves Mae Hong Son Sustainable Agriculture Network. They have successfully produced organic garlic, and delivered the product at Baht 25/kg. The group has been working towards alternative agriculture for almost 10 years before any governmental grand intervention. It is a slow process but it does make a difference.
Ralph, I think you’ve raised some important points.
“Most informed observers, including academics, agree that sanctions have failed and have been poorly targeted so that the impact has not been on the junta’s members”
It does seem as though in the Burma sanctions debate people generally get caught up in thinking of economic sanctions relating to trade to and from Burma, but there are of course many other forms of sanctions which are being applied and are being debated about being applied. Some argue that these are more relevant and more able to avoid the negative impact on the wider population. I am interested to hear Jon Ferquest and Don Jameson’s views on other forms of sanctions, like the freezing of miltiary officers’ financial assets held abroad, visa bans on junta officials and a (potentially universal) arms embargo. (I also haven’t been able to access Steinburg’s sanctions article yet).
Steinberg suggesting that political change must be internally driven begs the question of why there has been so little change since 1962. It also ignores that most political change (generally) is not entirely internally driven.
Interestingly, Maitrii Aung-Thwin in her article “Structuring revolt: Communities of interpretation in the historiography of the Saya San rebellion” in the latest issue of the Journal of Southeast Asian Studies challenges previous theories of single issue causation in the Saya San rebellion and supports the argument that multiple (including external) factors such as the the influence of western notions of social organisation played a part.
“Apparently Robert Horn has never been to Burma, as jonfernquest and I have (I lived there for three years) and thus has no appreciation for the actual situation on the ground. He also has been brainwashed by the media on Burma it appears.”
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Nam Theun resettlement – an entirely predictable stuff-up
Hi Keith, ouch! Am I bound by consultant solidarity to stand by the overall conclusion of the review? I hope not. There is a debate to be had about the costs and benefits of the project at a national level, but I don’t think the evidence in the report necessarily justified such a confident conclusion. I am sure you have some idea of how these things get written! My main aim was, and still is, to highlight the problems with a resettlement action plan that most people seemed to assess on volume rather than content.
Nam Theun resettlement – an entirely predictable stuff-up
Greetings Andrew:
Nevertheless, the Executive Summary of the NT2 AusAID report you co-authored states on page v that:
“Overall, the project benefits appear to outweigh costs,…”
Are you now considering a retraction of that position?
cheers,
Keith
Leave the PA(S)D alone!
There is a new theory. Sonti Limtongkul is a foreign agent–doesn’t he look like one?–intent on subverting Thailand, hence his persistent effort at bringing anarchy to the country. He will never stop until Thailand lies in shreds. Unfortunately, there are lots of fools in Thailand who listen to this crook instead of tearing him to pieces. He is truly a bad medicine for us Thais.
The lèse majesté plot thickens
There was an article in the Bangkok Post early this week about the current huge backlog of police cases, many of which are lese majeste cases, so that might answer the question of why there was such a long delay in the Jakrapob case.
Some people may not know until long after the fact, that something they said was interpreted in a negative way by some third party they hardly know, and reported secretly to the police, for instance, even this sentence I write now, perhaps pointing out a major flaw in the LM law, which clearly needs to reformed so that it does not become an instrument of partisan politics adding fuel to the already raging flames.
That is, unless the generalised state of fear consistent with the uncertainty and delays described above is actually an intended part of the law’s effect, which I find that hard to believe, because Thailand is not Burma.
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
Don Jameson – claims to be a political officer in Burma (when?) and (on another blog) to have been a political officer in Cambodia during the Lon Nol period. He also apparently reads and comments on http://blog.beliefnet.com/godspolitics/2008/06/a-quiet-revolt-in-burma-by-eug.html#comments
But I can’t find anything under his name other than comments that almost all begin by claiming the residence halo. I’d like to see the sustained critical analysis he has completed. Where would I look? Recently declassified State Department documents perhaps?
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
Moe Aung: Your comments are somewhat cryptic. Can you clarify what you mean? Thanks
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
Real change can only stem from inside, with a little help maybe. Ever thought of arming the next uprising to level the playing field a bit? The fire next time…. bound to come while we are busy pontificating given the junta’s intransigence and lust for power. Or would it be more ritual condemnation ad nauseum ad infinitum?
Forest guardians, forest destroyers
[…] finished reading Andrew Walker (of New Mandala blogospheric fame) and Tim Forsyth’s new book, Forest Guardians, Forest Destroyers. The politics of environmental knowledge in Northern Thailand, out from University of Washington Press. […]
A Japanese tale
Thanks Trevor. Much appreciated.
Does Than Shwe have anything to fear from international law?
NKPVET, the civil war is off topic although it’s important as the context when we are talking about war crimes and human rights violations. BTW what gave you the idea I’m a Ms ?! I’m just another old fogey leading a cosy life in the West and shouting from the sidelines. I am NOT a capitalist. Admittedly there are good capitalists but everyone gets sucked into a deadly vortex of capitalist competition and most lose their innate humanity in pursuit of profit.
True, totalitarian rule and capitalism is a deadly mix. Il Duce and the Fuhrer were the extreme examples, and the Burmese junta is just as detrimental to the nation it rules over though not a threat at least not directly to the region. Burma, let’s not forget, is historically a natural land empire similar to Russia and China, her expansionism at its height in the latter part of the 18th C and the earlier part of the 19th C before she came to grief when she took on the industrial might of the British Empire.
If you are so interested in the civil war in Burma I’d suggest you look up “Panglong Conference” and “Communist Party of Burma” in Wiki for some background. I have no idea how to get the links up here without crashing! Martin Smith’s “Burma – Insugency and the Politics of Ethnicity ” 1991 Zed Books, London, is a definitive reference on the subject. It is a three way struggle between the government and army dominated by Socialists from the early days of independence on one side and the CPB and the nationalities on the other. United fronts come and go among the rebels, the latest one pointedly excluding the CPB as just another bunch of Burman chauvinists like all other Burman groups.
There is no way genuine national reconciliation is going to be happen without the ultimate overthrow of the junta in its current or future incarnations since it is the embodiment of Burman militarism and chauvinism. Above all there is no way the nationalities can do it on their own without involving the majority Burmans both above and underground in an broad and effective united front. Neither side is blameless for the continuation of the conflict, although you have to lay the lion’s share of the blame squarely at the door of the military dictatorship, even if colonialists in their past and present incarnations too did and continue to have a hand in kindling and stoking the fires of communal strife. So “great white saviours” beware as you stand out like a sore thumb, not least compounded by the religious divide.
Civil war, renewed and reinvigorated, is by no means a foregone conclusion once the junta is out of the picture. There just is no political will on the part of the junta though everyone else is willing to find a political solution. The more durable the junta proves to be the more arduous the task. Refugee camps along the border have seen new generations grow up with bitterness and resentment just as in Palestine. Separatist goals are likely to regain currency. There’s a real risk of hard learned and costly lessons from the protracted civil war of six decades and lost generations now being lost to the young, only to repeat the same historical mistakes of fragmentation and disunity in the fight against the common enemy, the military dictatorship. This great nation deserves a real break long overdue. It’s a crime to allow the conflict to smoulder on and keep the country down in this interminable hell of repression and underdevelopment.
Grasshopper, you have a good liberal and legal mind. The sans frontiere idea however is a nice liberal pipe dream just like the world government they were going on about so much 30 years ago. There may be a pretty good viable EU now but it mainly works in favour of international capital, bankers and ruling elites. And it plays into the hands of those who wish to impose their own model of society on the rest of us. Remember TINA that Mrs Thatcher was so fond of?
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
This conversation is beginning to reflect the craziness that characteriszes most of the commentary on Burma. The county’s isolation apparently invites wild speculation on the assumption that none of this can actually be verified on the spot. Much of this comes out of Bangkok, where Thai cultural distain for Burma (“a poor country with a naked king” as portrayed in the King and I) combines with the search for sensational stories by journalists to create a heady brew of misinformation. When I was in Burma we spent much of our time knocking down erroneous or exaggerated reports out of Bangkok, supposedly based on informants in Burma, many of which could be verified as ridiculous simply by walking down the street. In many respects Burma is a fairly normal traditional Southeast Asian society, especially in rural areas. It is also extremely rich in natural resources as well as agricultural productivity. Traveleing through central Burma I was often amazed by the bounty of the land. The idea that a country like this can somehow be bludgeoned into submission through “isolation” is ludicrous on the face of it for anyone who takes the time to see what the place is really like. But if one is sitting in Bangkok apparently it is easy to conjure up the picture of a starving people wallowing in poverty or as in the book “Finding George Orwell in Burma” (written by a Bangkok based journalist) a living version of 1984. These portrayals are so far from the mark as to constitute fiction rather than journalism. I think jonfernquest has dealt pretty will with the question of internal vs external change and sanctions of any kind are mostly symbolic to make outsiders feel that they are doing something useful. The idea that the Burmese leaders have vast amounts of money stashed abroad is another myth. They have little or no interest in leaving their own country (they never travel outside Burma except on short official visits) and in general live a rather simple and austere lifestyle (as do most Burmese). Hard as it may be for many outsiders to believe they are not frivilous even though they may be ignorant and misguided. It is hard to understand how isolation and sanctions can be a remedy for this situation. What Burma needs is more exposure to the outside world so that some of these outmoded ideas can be challenged and shown to be out of date (by at least a century). This would also open opportunites for the Burmese people in general to benefit from new ideas and exposure to what is happening in the rest of the world. That is the way for outside influence to make itself felt. Isolation just retards the process and leaves no alternative to change through internal forces. In short, the outside world needs to completely rethink its attitude toward Burma and adopt policies that are baseed on a realistic assessment of the situation there rather than on hopes of forcing change flowing in large part from a farytale view of what Burma is all about.
The Devil’s Discus – in Thai
19 June 2008
Thank you.
My address is:
Frank G Anderson
745/1 Seubsiri Soi 3/13 (Taptim)
Meung, Nakonratchasima 30000
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
Don Jameson: “To suggest that such carefully and painstakingly developed knowledge is less meaningful than wild opinions based on often sensationalized media reporting boggles the mind.”
Exactly. Living in Mae Sot in the early 1990s there was an endless stream of amateur photojournalists, journalists, and strange military types hoping to, apparently, make a name for themselves, get that 15 minute Andy Warhol sound bite of fame. And they all produced the same cookie cutter story and photos. Now it’s Rambo-craze time.
The tragedy is that the country has been isolated for so long (~46 years), that the vast majority of people know nothing else. I think it’s a mute point whether you freeze some nasty dictator’s assets or try an arms embargo, they’ll just find some way around it and adapt as they have for the last 20 years.
It may be a harsh reality, but after 20 years, the generals have won and are still firmly in power. In order that the people can quickly carry on normal trade, educational, and other relations with the outside world, and end their isolation, and not all die in the next major natural disaster, IMHO the ending of sanctions and normalisation of relations is necessary, but that will never happen, so I predict that China will continue to become more important in Burma via Yunnan.
Steinberg suggesting that political change must be internally driven begs the question of why there has been so little change since 1962. It also ignores that most political change (generally) is not entirely internally driven.
To get externally driven change first a country needs relations with outside world. 46+ years of isolation.
Privatise the profits. Socialise the losses.
Wouldn’t a well planned and thought out agricultural policy be better than an ad hoc policy that only reacts, essentially giving in to (in an ad hoc fashion) every demonstration that arises?
Are they just going to keep giving in until the government budget runs out and inflation eventually spirals out of control? (See Krugman’s article on wage price spiral and inflation. There is a recently resurrected government organic farming promotion programme.)
Storm warnings, Cyclone Nargis and the media
It’s not just the BBC that had its eye off the ball when it came to the cyclone. My husband is a meteorologist, and as such belongs to an internet user group whose members exchange data about impending weather events. Before Cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh in 2007, meteorologists from around the world were warning that Bangladesh could have a catastrophe on its hands, and were hoping that the Bangladesh government was aware of the approaching calamity. When it came to Nargis, the international community of meteorologists was, apparently, strangely silent. I’m not sure whether they didn’t have the data, whether the data was unclear or whether they simply regarded Burma as an unknown place and therefore unimportant – whatever, it is interesting to note the different responses to the two situations.
The lèse majesté plot thickens
I saw this guy talking about Jakrapob on the PAD stage and he is exposing a Lese Majeste conspiracy involving corrupt media – simple. Jonathan Head had a obsession with the monarchy, he dare not attack his own queen and as a foreigner should know better; I guess he must be a newbie!
Privatise the profits. Socialise the losses.
Garlic is considered as vulnerable crop when we take into account strong competition of large and firm garlic bulbs from China. With a surge of fertilizer price, chemically based garlic farmers will face financial loss again. The “subsidy economy” will not be the answer. Currently in Mae Hong Sorn, small groups of farmers across districts, assisted by local NGO, have formed themselves Mae Hong Son Sustainable Agriculture Network. They have successfully produced organic garlic, and delivered the product at Baht 25/kg. The group has been working towards alternative agriculture for almost 10 years before any governmental grand intervention. It is a slow process but it does make a difference.
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
Ralph, I think you’ve raised some important points.
It does seem as though in the Burma sanctions debate people generally get caught up in thinking of economic sanctions relating to trade to and from Burma, but there are of course many other forms of sanctions which are being applied and are being debated about being applied. Some argue that these are more relevant and more able to avoid the negative impact on the wider population. I am interested to hear Jon Ferquest and Don Jameson’s views on other forms of sanctions, like the freezing of miltiary officers’ financial assets held abroad, visa bans on junta officials and a (potentially universal) arms embargo. (I also haven’t been able to access Steinburg’s sanctions article yet).
Interestingly, Maitrii Aung-Thwin in her article “Structuring revolt: Communities of interpretation in the historiography of the Saya San rebellion” in the latest issue of the Journal of Southeast Asian Studies challenges previous theories of single issue causation in the Saya San rebellion and supports the argument that multiple (including external) factors such as the the influence of western notions of social organisation played a part.
JSEAS special issue on Burma is out now
“Apparently Robert Horn has never been to Burma, as jonfernquest and I have (I lived there for three years) and thus has no appreciation for the actual situation on the ground. He also has been brainwashed by the media on Burma it appears.”
That’s pretty funny, Don Jameson.
The Devil’s Discus – in Thai
Frank, please see my comment above. I would be happy to post the disks to you!
facthaiATgmailDOTcom