“This latest act of terror would seem to cement support for their ongoing rule and tight control of the state.”
“This incident could be seen as an attempt to undermine the military government’s sense of control or to add pressure to return to elections and civilian rule.”
What a pointless article, consisting as it does of self-contradictory and completely unfounded speculation.
IF you don’t like the theory present your own. But the Thai military officer has said the bomb used doesn’t fit the type of bombs used by the Southern insurgents. However, he could be lying
Sorry, but this is not an analyses, but pure speculation based on very superficial observations of the situation in Thailand. While at the present moment i do not want to further speculation, a few things i would like to comment on.
This bomb follows two previous bombs which even though clear surveillance footage have shown culprits, announcements by security forces that culprits were known, and soon arrests were to be made, nobody in the Red Shirt movement was arrested and/or charged. Also these bombs were initially alleged to be done by red Shirt armed militants. However, things are very quite now. Is this bomb connected to, and an escalation of, the still mysterious attacks at Siam Paragon and in Surat Thani?
The premise that things would be going so bad for the Red Shirt side right now is a premise i would contest. Things aren’t going that well for all sides, right now, and especially the military government has quite a few problems: the economy is not doing well, the large projects such as the railway contracts are in chaos, reconciliation is far away, and so far very few of the promises made by the military it could fulfill. The public opinion is increasingly unhappy with the military while the Red Shirts sit back and watch. Things for the Democrat Party are going even worse, a party lost, without any political direction, and very little hope to win any future elections outside their local power houses.
This so called analyses completely ignores the fact that two powerful groups in the military/elites have been infighting since soon after the coup.
There are many possibilities, which at the present moment cannot be ruled out. Without any supporting evidence it is very damaging to speculate and take part in a witch hunt.
When i was a child, we had in Munich the so called “Octoberfest Bomb”, which killed a dozen, and injured scores. The obvious enemy was then the left wing terrorist group RAF (Red Army Faction). Politicians straight pointed to them, ordered police to investigate only in this direction. Soon though it became clear that the man who did the bomb was a right wing terrorist who died in his own blast. Much valuable time was lost, and it could not be established anymore beyond doubt that he did not act alone. He had links to a right wing terrorist group, the “Wehrsportgruppe Hoffmann”, but much time has been wasted in the investigations based on similar politically motivated speculation as done in this so called analyses.
A security analyses should be based on evidence, and on inside information by known and proven sources of all sides. This here quite clearly isn’t. It is about the same what you can find posted on social media by anybody with a grudge.
John Blaxland has carefully omitted a far more likely culprit for the bombing – the recently re-constituted PDRC, the group that deliberately created mahem in the capital for six months including the occupation of government buildings in which some 22 people died, in order to persuade the army to make a coup.
The proposed constitution is getting considerable criticism for the sudden interjection of a clause that will guarantee the military overseeing of the conduct of an ‘elected’ parliament for at least 5 years. There is nothing like a little mahem to remind the Thai public about the ‘supposed’ evils of Thaksin to distract attention from an unpopular draft constitution.
Interestingly a Government minister last night accused the anti-coup factions as the culprits without one shred of evidence.
Another comment has been made in the media comparing the constitution of the bomb with the bombs used by the suicide bombs used in the Middle East i.e. TNT and ball bearings plus the sighting of a possible light skinned Indian looking man in the vicinity. But all this is supposition. There is much work for the authorities to do. John Blaxland should be a lot more careful before he zeros-in on one particular possibility.
Having said that, I hope that the authorities will find the true culprits, whoever they are.
Militant Islamists from wellknown groupings have also threatened Buddhist and Govt targets in Thailand and Indonesia in retaliation for the ongoing illtreatment of Rohingyas. The RI based groups have a history of conflating Buddhist and Hindu targets eg Borobudur.
HM the King’s knowledge in the field of agriculture and engineering is far beyond bachelor’s degree level. He does not need a piece of diploma to prove to you. Poor people in up-country are grateful to HM the king and queen for their sacrifice to improve the living standard of the poor.
Hearing Thai colleagues this morning already blaming it on the Reds and Thaksin. Seems like everyone has their own favorite culprit in mind already and doesn’t care much for actual investigation.
Only three possibilities? Remember ten years ago when a mentally-ill man attacked the Erawan shrine and bystanders beat him to death? There was speculation then that it was more than that. It wasn’t. While all of the scenarios above are plausible, and it’s natural to consider possible motives, there is always the possibility the bombing was a random, uncoordinated act by an individual or two. Perhaps the motive isn’t even something we’ve imagined yet.
We need to be careful pointing to groups and their supposed motives until some actual evidence surfaces. Real harm is done even in the accusation. There are important fourth and fifth possibilities to leave open as well. I’m waiting for some more evidence to surface until I’m comfortable identifying a “likely” perpetrator. Let’s hope that evidence arrives sooner than later so the speculation does less harm than more to those uninvolved.
Absolutely no evidence to blame the red shirts.The gangsters behind Suthep and the no vote before reform mob should also be on the list if one is to follow this type of reasoning. The truth is only the perpetrators know who did this. The Author of this rather shallow piece has no idea nor do the rest of us.
Only a diehard Islamophilic apologist (I am not referring to any specific individual) would entirely rule out Pattani Malays in the South. It is as absurd to label every hypothesis that the blast was caused by Muslim extremists as biased, as it is to insist that this was the only possible cause (as there are other reasonable causes that need not involve Muslims). The difference is that in academia, the clear bias is to excuse Southeast Asian Muslims of any possible guilt (hilarious, given that Malaysia is disintegrating now). Thus, bombs in Bangkok can “only” be caused by Abhisit supporters, Right Wing military officers trying to, ostensibly, instigate anarchy, or Buddhist fanatics. Thaksin and Thai or Malay Muslims are innocent by definition alone, as Bamar Buddhists are guilty of a non-existent genocide of a non-existent “Rohingya”,
because tenured faculty say it must be so. Therefore it is so. Only, none of it is so.
Unless these Asia experts are also Forensic Scientists, they have no evidence to blame only one side, and have tin ears to any other
theory. That is very different from being unbiased to start with.
We can be sure that this tragic event will be an excuse to blame Thaksin Southern Muslims and elements of Thai security forces, the usual suspects but let us not forget Thailand is a violent society of serial massacres of its own people justified a profound anti democratic and perverse Buddhism….
Tony Cartaloopy has already cast aspersions on Thaksin supporters. No doubt Michael Yon will follow suit.
stupid statements by police officers don’t help and they should ALL shut up and leave all news to public statements to press conferences. Politiciansfrom the illegal military junta make crass statements about Thai happiness.
Until their is total freedom of speech in Thailand everything will be just rumour.
Repression will get worse as the illegal military junta know nothing else.
A very sad day for Thailand that a few terrorists can cause such havoc and probably because their voices are suppressed.
Violence is never the answer to any problem by individuals and governments.
Sadness in Thailand is all to common. HAPPYLAND only resides in the minds of the mindless.
My sympathies go out to all those affected by this mindless act of terror.
As the founding fathers of the United States realised, democracy and monarchy of any kind, constitutional or absolute, are fundamentally incompatible. They are opposites. Constitutional monarchy is a fraud. In a place like Australia it is a fraud designed to keep the crawlers happy. In Thailand it is a fraud designed to give the people the false impression that they have some say in the way they are governed. The term is an oxymoron. A monarch who acts only on the “advice” of the elected government is taking orders from the elected government, and is no monarch at all. A monarch who rides rough-shod over constitution after constitution is an absolute monarch no different from a mafia boss.
When I talk about education, I’m normally thinking about real stuff, things like Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM), the kind of stuff that engineers and scientists at NASA, Google, biotech companies etc. have to know, not some soft poli-sci lingo (buzz words like capacity building, stakeholder, …). I might be biased, but one has to admit that scientific and technoligical know-how is what gives the West huge advantages over “cultures” in countries like Burma. Chinese know that and Deng Xiaoping told them to steal as much technology and science from the West as they can and they are still furiously pursuing that srategy. Massive technology transfer was the main reason behind “China’s Rise”. You can blame Nixon, Kissinger, Bill Clinton and greedy Wall Street for that. The West was also stupid enough to give away all the jobs and even a lot of money to China. Donald Trump knows that better than Mr. Diamond!
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Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
For once, the Thai military has an ally at the ANU.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
“This latest act of terror would seem to cement support for their ongoing rule and tight control of the state.”
“This incident could be seen as an attempt to undermine the military government’s sense of control or to add pressure to return to elections and civilian rule.”
What a pointless article, consisting as it does of self-contradictory and completely unfounded speculation.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Yes, but if they want to launch an attack, they could target temples in Indonesia, why go all the way to Bangkok?
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
IF you don’t like the theory present your own. But the Thai military officer has said the bomb used doesn’t fit the type of bombs used by the Southern insurgents. However, he could be lying
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Blaxland’s profound insight into the RTA and its coupist elements makes me think that he and Porthip must have studied together somewhere, some time…
This article, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/26/reconsidering-the-role-of-the-military-in-thailand/ , gives the measure of the man just about perfectly.
See No, Hear No, Speak No Evil of the RTA!
Thai elitism and hierarchy
I cannot hold my tears, let me share this.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Sorry, but this is not an analyses, but pure speculation based on very superficial observations of the situation in Thailand. While at the present moment i do not want to further speculation, a few things i would like to comment on.
This bomb follows two previous bombs which even though clear surveillance footage have shown culprits, announcements by security forces that culprits were known, and soon arrests were to be made, nobody in the Red Shirt movement was arrested and/or charged. Also these bombs were initially alleged to be done by red Shirt armed militants. However, things are very quite now. Is this bomb connected to, and an escalation of, the still mysterious attacks at Siam Paragon and in Surat Thani?
The premise that things would be going so bad for the Red Shirt side right now is a premise i would contest. Things aren’t going that well for all sides, right now, and especially the military government has quite a few problems: the economy is not doing well, the large projects such as the railway contracts are in chaos, reconciliation is far away, and so far very few of the promises made by the military it could fulfill. The public opinion is increasingly unhappy with the military while the Red Shirts sit back and watch. Things for the Democrat Party are going even worse, a party lost, without any political direction, and very little hope to win any future elections outside their local power houses.
This so called analyses completely ignores the fact that two powerful groups in the military/elites have been infighting since soon after the coup.
There are many possibilities, which at the present moment cannot be ruled out. Without any supporting evidence it is very damaging to speculate and take part in a witch hunt.
When i was a child, we had in Munich the so called “Octoberfest Bomb”, which killed a dozen, and injured scores. The obvious enemy was then the left wing terrorist group RAF (Red Army Faction). Politicians straight pointed to them, ordered police to investigate only in this direction. Soon though it became clear that the man who did the bomb was a right wing terrorist who died in his own blast. Much valuable time was lost, and it could not be established anymore beyond doubt that he did not act alone. He had links to a right wing terrorist group, the “Wehrsportgruppe Hoffmann”, but much time has been wasted in the investigations based on similar politically motivated speculation as done in this so called analyses.
A security analyses should be based on evidence, and on inside information by known and proven sources of all sides. This here quite clearly isn’t. It is about the same what you can find posted on social media by anybody with a grudge.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
John Blaxland has carefully omitted a far more likely culprit for the bombing – the recently re-constituted PDRC, the group that deliberately created mahem in the capital for six months including the occupation of government buildings in which some 22 people died, in order to persuade the army to make a coup.
The proposed constitution is getting considerable criticism for the sudden interjection of a clause that will guarantee the military overseeing of the conduct of an ‘elected’ parliament for at least 5 years. There is nothing like a little mahem to remind the Thai public about the ‘supposed’ evils of Thaksin to distract attention from an unpopular draft constitution.
Interestingly a Government minister last night accused the anti-coup factions as the culprits without one shred of evidence.
Another comment has been made in the media comparing the constitution of the bomb with the bombs used by the suicide bombs used in the Middle East i.e. TNT and ball bearings plus the sighting of a possible light skinned Indian looking man in the vicinity. But all this is supposition. There is much work for the authorities to do. John Blaxland should be a lot more careful before he zeros-in on one particular possibility.
Having said that, I hope that the authorities will find the true culprits, whoever they are.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Yes, Pearshaped and good luck convincing our NM colleagues of that validated fact.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Militant Islamists from wellknown groupings have also threatened Buddhist and Govt targets in Thailand and Indonesia in retaliation for the ongoing illtreatment of Rohingyas. The RI based groups have a history of conflating Buddhist and Hindu targets eg Borobudur.
Thailand’s Prayuth: Not just another coup-maker
Seriously? That’s your argument? Michael Yon?
Thai elitism and hierarchy
HM the King’s knowledge in the field of agriculture and engineering is far beyond bachelor’s degree level. He does not need a piece of diploma to prove to you. Poor people in up-country are grateful to HM the king and queen for their sacrifice to improve the living standard of the poor.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Hearing Thai colleagues this morning already blaming it on the Reds and Thaksin. Seems like everyone has their own favorite culprit in mind already and doesn’t care much for actual investigation.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Only three possibilities? Remember ten years ago when a mentally-ill man attacked the Erawan shrine and bystanders beat him to death? There was speculation then that it was more than that. It wasn’t. While all of the scenarios above are plausible, and it’s natural to consider possible motives, there is always the possibility the bombing was a random, uncoordinated act by an individual or two. Perhaps the motive isn’t even something we’ve imagined yet.
We need to be careful pointing to groups and their supposed motives until some actual evidence surfaces. Real harm is done even in the accusation. There are important fourth and fifth possibilities to leave open as well. I’m waiting for some more evidence to surface until I’m comfortable identifying a “likely” perpetrator. Let’s hope that evidence arrives sooner than later so the speculation does less harm than more to those uninvolved.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Absolutely no evidence to blame the red shirts.The gangsters behind Suthep and the no vote before reform mob should also be on the list if one is to follow this type of reasoning. The truth is only the perpetrators know who did this. The Author of this rather shallow piece has no idea nor do the rest of us.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Only a diehard Islamophilic apologist (I am not referring to any specific individual) would entirely rule out Pattani Malays in the South. It is as absurd to label every hypothesis that the blast was caused by Muslim extremists as biased, as it is to insist that this was the only possible cause (as there are other reasonable causes that need not involve Muslims). The difference is that in academia, the clear bias is to excuse Southeast Asian Muslims of any possible guilt (hilarious, given that Malaysia is disintegrating now). Thus, bombs in Bangkok can “only” be caused by Abhisit supporters, Right Wing military officers trying to, ostensibly, instigate anarchy, or Buddhist fanatics. Thaksin and Thai or Malay Muslims are innocent by definition alone, as Bamar Buddhists are guilty of a non-existent genocide of a non-existent “Rohingya”,
because tenured faculty say it must be so. Therefore it is so. Only, none of it is so.
Unless these Asia experts are also Forensic Scientists, they have no evidence to blame only one side, and have tin ears to any other
theory. That is very different from being unbiased to start with.
Initial thoughts on Bangkok bombing
We can be sure that this tragic event will be an excuse to blame Thaksin Southern Muslims and elements of Thai security forces, the usual suspects but let us not forget Thailand is a violent society of serial massacres of its own people justified a profound anti democratic and perverse Buddhism….
Initial thoughts on Bangkok bombing
Tony Cartaloopy has already cast aspersions on Thaksin supporters. No doubt Michael Yon will follow suit.
stupid statements by police officers don’t help and they should ALL shut up and leave all news to public statements to press conferences. Politiciansfrom the illegal military junta make crass statements about Thai happiness.
Until their is total freedom of speech in Thailand everything will be just rumour.
Repression will get worse as the illegal military junta know nothing else.
A very sad day for Thailand that a few terrorists can cause such havoc and probably because their voices are suppressed.
Violence is never the answer to any problem by individuals and governments.
Sadness in Thailand is all to common. HAPPYLAND only resides in the minds of the mindless.
My sympathies go out to all those affected by this mindless act of terror.
Lèse-majesté today
As the founding fathers of the United States realised, democracy and monarchy of any kind, constitutional or absolute, are fundamentally incompatible. They are opposites. Constitutional monarchy is a fraud. In a place like Australia it is a fraud designed to keep the crawlers happy. In Thailand it is a fraud designed to give the people the false impression that they have some say in the way they are governed. The term is an oxymoron. A monarch who acts only on the “advice” of the elected government is taking orders from the elected government, and is no monarch at all. A monarch who rides rough-shod over constitution after constitution is an absolute monarch no different from a mafia boss.
The ‘political science experiment’
When I talk about education, I’m normally thinking about real stuff, things like Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM), the kind of stuff that engineers and scientists at NASA, Google, biotech companies etc. have to know, not some soft poli-sci lingo (buzz words like capacity building, stakeholder, …). I might be biased, but one has to admit that scientific and technoligical know-how is what gives the West huge advantages over “cultures” in countries like Burma. Chinese know that and Deng Xiaoping told them to steal as much technology and science from the West as they can and they are still furiously pursuing that srategy. Massive technology transfer was the main reason behind “China’s Rise”. You can blame Nixon, Kissinger, Bill Clinton and greedy Wall Street for that. The West was also stupid enough to give away all the jobs and even a lot of money to China. Donald Trump knows that better than Mr. Diamond!