Shwe Mann’s removal was orchestrated by the military and marks a worrying shift by the USDP away from the moderate centre-ground. This bodes badly for the deal-making that will have to take place after the elections if a viable government is to be formed.
She may be asking for votes from the flood victims but she certainly did not shove a devil of a Constitution down the throats of cyclone victims shortly after a murderous spree by the self styled defenders of the faith on the country’s Sangha.
Is it a case of the devil you know? Really?
If Thein Sein is such a safe pair of hands and has the support of the NDSC why resort to a putsch? Shwe Mann, regardless of the Lady’s designs on him, evidently posed a serious threat to their plans which obviously had not calculated one of the ruling troika (Tatmadaw, USDP and the President) going off the rail, like Yeltsin successfully challenged Gorbachev.
It’s the sanctions that brought these guys round to see sense in using the trump card they already got, the Kalama Than Shwe despised so much, so they could rejoin the global capitalist order and stop stubbornly going down a rut of their own to hit the buffers.
With all her faults ASSK has to be the lesser of two evils if she turns out as many feel almost nearly authoritarian, stubborn and arrogant. In fact she has already proved to be an easier nut to crack, easily duped and manipulated, should the need arise. She should’ve realised the same in U Nu, appreciated and collaborated with him in 1988. Now she’s paying the price for her folly and political naivete. There’s no excuse after a quarter century for such blinding hubris to persist never mind getting old.
As long as the military retains control over political processes in Thailand, there appears to be no hope.
But, wait. What if, what if in the royal succession process, a ruler is named who later decides to reject the notions of the past. Can he or she win out over far-right forces in Thailand? After all, HM the King has in the past made statements indicating a willingness to liberalize the position of the royal family in Thai society.
That’d be telling, wouldn’t it? Disappointing I’m sure for the Lady.
Who can she turn to next? No plan B should surprise no one. Cry foul and complain to her Western admirers now also being as pragmatic as she’s been, not to mention her appeal is wearing thin both inside and outside the country?
Their agenda of Burma joining the New World Order has taken off the ground albeit with a tonne of teething troubles for Master Shifu in ‘guiding’ the wayward generals. Have fun, Masters of the Universe.
Lèse-majesté is just a too convenient and potent political tool with which to prosecute opposition to the alliance of the Palace and the Military, and to assure their perpetual privileges to ever be rescinded or ameliorated. The present regime seems not to care two hoots about Western Government concerns. On the contrary, they are seeking new friends in China where the communist regime barely tolerates criticism of its human rights abuses.It would take a revolution in Thailand to get rid of this iniquitous law.
this article is disappointing! It outlines as if it will explain how the military generals have made ASSK into lame duck. But no such explanation is made!
And you don’t stage a coup anywhere in the world without keeping the army on your side. Talk about stating the obvious.
What we’ve just witnessed, the ouster of Shwe Mann, is a putsch with the army no longer on the side of a former chief of staff, on the contrary. A state appointed leader of a state owned party overthrown by the state.
The Burmese expression is: min-kha yauk-kyar kahnnar thippin (men in the royal service are like trees by the river).
Spot on, Derek. You know Shwe Mann had already been pipped at the post by Thein Sein when he was number three after Than Shwe and Maung Aye. He became a ‘disgruntled employee’ in that sense which pushed him closer to ASSK with his ‘civilian’ power base in parliament jockeying for the highest office like her in her own way, alas both chasing a mirage.
Than Shwe’s choice, through his instrument the NDSC, of his next natural heir to the throne Min Aung Hlaing certainly enjoys a power base with teeth. Wait until the rank and file too become a sea of disgruntled employees feeling betrayed by this democracy lark.
Let’s speculate. I doubt that there ever was a “pact” between Shwe Mann and Suu Kyi. Both want(ed) the top job. Shwe Mann has the ability, but not Suu Kyi. Now Shwe Mann has gone.
So who was behind all this? Probably Than Shwe, Thein Sein and Min Aung Hlaing. You don’t stage a coup in Myanmar without keeping the Tatmadaw on your side. Thein Sein wants to retire, but he wasn’t going to say so until his planned successor, Min Aung Hlaing, had a clear field. That meant that Shwe Mann simply had to go.
For Suu Kyi, the consequences are unwelcome. The NLD now has a more ruthless rival in the shape of a USDP purged of internal dissent. Who knows where it will all lead?
Well Suu Kyi still can’t forget the 1990 elections (like a little girl who lost her candy) and Shwe Mann is still peeved that in 2011 Than Shwe picked Thein Sein as President instead of him (he used to outrank Thein Sein, no?)
Some Burmese have egos bigger than their country and long memories like white elephants. Anyway, Than Shwe probably thinks Shwe Mann is becoming a “thissaphauk” (traitor) which is a bad thing if you ever were a member of the “Tatmadaw”.
That was a surprise, but not totally. The root cause: aggressive maneuvering from DASSK to change the constitution. She has been hinting Shwe Mann that his presidential ambitions can be best realized by supporting her cause. As Sean stated above, “[T]hey wasted two years fighting a constitutional battle that anyone with a shred of sense knew that they had no hope of winning”. There have been many one-on-one discussions between ASSK and Shwe Mann, the last of which was after rumors that Thein Sein had sent a “written confirmation” to Shwe Mann that he wouldn’t seek a second term. Perhaps, egged by her with “presidential nomination” as a reward, Shwe Mann got the idea to vote in the parliament, alienate the military, and many in his own party. He grew overconfident and underestimated U Thein Sein as a toothless tiger.
So what has led to recent developments? U Thein Sein wants to have a second term to finalize the process so that he doesn’t have to share credits for initiating reforms with either Suu Kyi or Shwe Mann, or in a better light, he believes only he himself can complete the process he has initiated. He wants to assure the top job for himself with 25% votes from military, 10% from USDP, 15% from allied ethnic parties. Unlike Shwe Mann and ASSK, U Thein Sein has kept a low profile, only hinting about his aim to serve a second term.
It’s hard to remove Shwe Mann from his Hluttaw Speaker position since he hasn’t passed the law necessary to remove an MP. It’s also hard to kill his ambitions. Meanwhile, U Thein Sein needs USDP under his firm control to stand against the tide of NLD. A split in USDP vote between Thein Sein and Shwe Mann would inevitably favor Shwe Mann for the job. Now, things get more interesting.
Will Suu Kyi finally realize that economic development and poverty alleviation are more urgently needed for her country than endless fights over the constitution? Judging from the way she is blatantly asking for votes from flood victims, I don’t think so.
I wonder how much this escalating oppression of the Thai people is originating at the top. The more the king’s cognitive powers degenerate, the more difficult he becomes to manage. There would be none less able to manage the king’s condition wisely and compassionately than the bunch of crawlers surrounding him. His frustrated aggression would sting them to the heart, and they would retreat in bitterness to take it out on the people beneath them.
If this is the case, it is not possible to blame the king as a human being, nor even the crawlers. It is the system’s inability to handle inevitable human frailty that is the cause of Thailand’s tragedy. The problem may not be relieved by the succession of Vajiralongkorn, who unlike the king has been has been surrounded by crawlers from infancy.
“This is their internal problem, not ours,” said NLD central committee member Win Htein, “Their change is not a concern for us. The government’s term is almost over, that’s why I don’t think it will have a big impact on the current political situation.”
Sai Nyunt Lwin, joint general secretary of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy party, said that while he was concerned by the involvement of security forces in the move against Shwe Mann, he was cautiously optimistic that the purge would affect the general election slated for Nov. 8.
And that when the leader of a political party got ousted by a putsch backed by the state security apparatus, and not defeated in a leadership challenge and contest. Strange days indeed. Discipline certainly flourishing, and whither democracy?
Only it’s not really the USDP, is it? It’s the NDSC behind the scenes. The ‘hidden hand’ showing?
Desperate times will call for more desperate measures. A foretaste of the shape of things to come. Ironically albeit unsurprisingly their own creation became the first political party that needed to be disciplined. Wait till the army starts to misbehave.
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Watch the enemies from your own side
Shwe Mann’s removal was orchestrated by the military and marks a worrying shift by the USDP away from the moderate centre-ground. This bodes badly for the deal-making that will have to take place after the elections if a viable government is to be formed.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
She may be asking for votes from the flood victims but she certainly did not shove a devil of a Constitution down the throats of cyclone victims shortly after a murderous spree by the self styled defenders of the faith on the country’s Sangha.
Is it a case of the devil you know? Really?
If Thein Sein is such a safe pair of hands and has the support of the NDSC why resort to a putsch? Shwe Mann, regardless of the Lady’s designs on him, evidently posed a serious threat to their plans which obviously had not calculated one of the ruling troika (Tatmadaw, USDP and the President) going off the rail, like Yeltsin successfully challenged Gorbachev.
It’s the sanctions that brought these guys round to see sense in using the trump card they already got, the Kalama Than Shwe despised so much, so they could rejoin the global capitalist order and stop stubbornly going down a rut of their own to hit the buffers.
With all her faults ASSK has to be the lesser of two evils if she turns out as many feel almost nearly authoritarian, stubborn and arrogant. In fact she has already proved to be an easier nut to crack, easily duped and manipulated, should the need arise. She should’ve realised the same in U Nu, appreciated and collaborated with him in 1988. Now she’s paying the price for her folly and political naivete. There’s no excuse after a quarter century for such blinding hubris to persist never mind getting old.
Lèse-majesté today
As long as the military retains control over political processes in Thailand, there appears to be no hope.
But, wait. What if, what if in the royal succession process, a ruler is named who later decides to reject the notions of the past. Can he or she win out over far-right forces in Thailand? After all, HM the King has in the past made statements indicating a willingness to liberalize the position of the royal family in Thai society.
Lèse-majesté today
You can’t reason with dictators. You must hit them with economic and military sanctions. It must be blanket coverage so it must come from the UN
Watch the enemies from your own side
In this case, we all are just discover that the authority of U Than Shwe is still active and he already against with the family of Thuya
U Shwe Munn.
Heard from some source.
Lèse-majesté today
Maybe the western world should cease to participate in trade and tourism. That might just concentrate their minds a little more.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
That’d be telling, wouldn’t it? Disappointing I’m sure for the Lady.
Who can she turn to next? No plan B should surprise no one. Cry foul and complain to her Western admirers now also being as pragmatic as she’s been, not to mention her appeal is wearing thin both inside and outside the country?
Their agenda of Burma joining the New World Order has taken off the ground albeit with a tonne of teething troubles for Master Shifu in ‘guiding’ the wayward generals. Have fun, Masters of the Universe.
Lèse-majesté today
Lèse-majesté is just a too convenient and potent political tool with which to prosecute opposition to the alliance of the Palace and the Military, and to assure their perpetual privileges to ever be rescinded or ameliorated. The present regime seems not to care two hoots about Western Government concerns. On the contrary, they are seeking new friends in China where the communist regime barely tolerates criticism of its human rights abuses.It would take a revolution in Thailand to get rid of this iniquitous law.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
this article is disappointing! It outlines as if it will explain how the military generals have made ASSK into lame duck. But no such explanation is made!
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Could someone possibly say what is this “parliament” and why is it people talk about it as if it us something?
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
And you don’t stage a coup anywhere in the world without keeping the army on your side. Talk about stating the obvious.
What we’ve just witnessed, the ouster of Shwe Mann, is a putsch with the army no longer on the side of a former chief of staff, on the contrary. A state appointed leader of a state owned party overthrown by the state.
The Burmese expression is: min-kha yauk-kyar kahnnar thippin (men in the royal service are like trees by the river).
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Spot on, Derek. You know Shwe Mann had already been pipped at the post by Thein Sein when he was number three after Than Shwe and Maung Aye. He became a ‘disgruntled employee’ in that sense which pushed him closer to ASSK with his ‘civilian’ power base in parliament jockeying for the highest office like her in her own way, alas both chasing a mirage.
Than Shwe’s choice, through his instrument the NDSC, of his next natural heir to the throne Min Aung Hlaing certainly enjoys a power base with teeth. Wait until the rank and file too become a sea of disgruntled employees feeling betrayed by this democracy lark.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Let’s speculate. I doubt that there ever was a “pact” between Shwe Mann and Suu Kyi. Both want(ed) the top job. Shwe Mann has the ability, but not Suu Kyi. Now Shwe Mann has gone.
So who was behind all this? Probably Than Shwe, Thein Sein and Min Aung Hlaing. You don’t stage a coup in Myanmar without keeping the Tatmadaw on your side. Thein Sein wants to retire, but he wasn’t going to say so until his planned successor, Min Aung Hlaing, had a clear field. That meant that Shwe Mann simply had to go.
For Suu Kyi, the consequences are unwelcome. The NLD now has a more ruthless rival in the shape of a USDP purged of internal dissent. Who knows where it will all lead?
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Well Suu Kyi still can’t forget the 1990 elections (like a little girl who lost her candy) and Shwe Mann is still peeved that in 2011 Than Shwe picked Thein Sein as President instead of him (he used to outrank Thein Sein, no?)
Some Burmese have egos bigger than their country and long memories like white elephants. Anyway, Than Shwe probably thinks Shwe Mann is becoming a “thissaphauk” (traitor) which is a bad thing if you ever were a member of the “Tatmadaw”.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Depends how important you think Shwe Mann was to the NLD’s plans, which is anyone’s guess.
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
That was a surprise, but not totally. The root cause: aggressive maneuvering from DASSK to change the constitution. She has been hinting Shwe Mann that his presidential ambitions can be best realized by supporting her cause. As Sean stated above, “[T]hey wasted two years fighting a constitutional battle that anyone with a shred of sense knew that they had no hope of winning”. There have been many one-on-one discussions between ASSK and Shwe Mann, the last of which was after rumors that Thein Sein had sent a “written confirmation” to Shwe Mann that he wouldn’t seek a second term. Perhaps, egged by her with “presidential nomination” as a reward, Shwe Mann got the idea to vote in the parliament, alienate the military, and many in his own party. He grew overconfident and underestimated U Thein Sein as a toothless tiger.
So what has led to recent developments? U Thein Sein wants to have a second term to finalize the process so that he doesn’t have to share credits for initiating reforms with either Suu Kyi or Shwe Mann, or in a better light, he believes only he himself can complete the process he has initiated. He wants to assure the top job for himself with 25% votes from military, 10% from USDP, 15% from allied ethnic parties. Unlike Shwe Mann and ASSK, U Thein Sein has kept a low profile, only hinting about his aim to serve a second term.
It’s hard to remove Shwe Mann from his Hluttaw Speaker position since he hasn’t passed the law necessary to remove an MP. It’s also hard to kill his ambitions. Meanwhile, U Thein Sein needs USDP under his firm control to stand against the tide of NLD. A split in USDP vote between Thein Sein and Shwe Mann would inevitably favor Shwe Mann for the job. Now, things get more interesting.
Will Suu Kyi finally realize that economic development and poverty alleviation are more urgently needed for her country than endless fights over the constitution? Judging from the way she is blatantly asking for votes from flood victims, I don’t think so.
Crime and punishment under the Thai junta
I wonder how much this escalating oppression of the Thai people is originating at the top. The more the king’s cognitive powers degenerate, the more difficult he becomes to manage. There would be none less able to manage the king’s condition wisely and compassionately than the bunch of crawlers surrounding him. His frustrated aggression would sting them to the heart, and they would retreat in bitterness to take it out on the people beneath them.
If this is the case, it is not possible to blame the king as a human being, nor even the crawlers. It is the system’s inability to handle inevitable human frailty that is the cause of Thailand’s tragedy. The problem may not be relieved by the succession of Vajiralongkorn, who unlike the king has been has been surrounded by crawlers from infancy.
May 13, 1969
I tried to find more information regarding this tragedy using the link provided but unfortunately some of the info have been deleted.
Lèse-majesté today
Consider: Military might and rule means that acting as a sovereign above the law and in the place of HM the king means the king is weak and impotent
The taming of the NLD… by the NLD
Looks like Tim’s been proven right about the passive, internalisation of the USDP-led agenda as evidenced by the reaction from the “loyal opposition”:
“This is their internal problem, not ours,” said NLD central committee member Win Htein, “Their change is not a concern for us. The government’s term is almost over, that’s why I don’t think it will have a big impact on the current political situation.”
Sai Nyunt Lwin, joint general secretary of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy party, said that while he was concerned by the involvement of security forces in the move against Shwe Mann, he was cautiously optimistic that the purge would affect the general election slated for Nov. 8.
And that when the leader of a political party got ousted by a putsch backed by the state security apparatus, and not defeated in a leadership challenge and contest. Strange days indeed. Discipline certainly flourishing, and whither democracy?
Only it’s not really the USDP, is it? It’s the NDSC behind the scenes. The ‘hidden hand’ showing?
Desperate times will call for more desperate measures. A foretaste of the shape of things to come. Ironically albeit unsurprisingly their own creation became the first political party that needed to be disciplined. Wait till the army starts to misbehave.