This issue concerns ends or means. Is it and end for the elite to uphold the monarchy, or rather a means for the maintenance of their position? . In the first case, then there would be 1. no need for 112 as one can assume that hardly anybody in Thailand would really challenge the King. 2. no need to “rid Thailand from Thaksinism”, because if Thaksin would in fact challenge the King, he would rapidly loose his popular appeal. In the latter case one can understand why the elite regards Thaksin as danger, and sacralised the King (and associated 112) to enhance their own position as legitimate representatives/interpreters of the King and his wishes. Thaksin in contrast claims to be the representative of the people. What we have is a struggle over “representation”.
Closer ties between Malaysia and Australia will not lead to an improved human rights platform in Putrajaya. Until such time as the Malaysian Government learns to respect all its citizens, such ties should be not be used by a Malaysia as political cover to continue the persecution of opposition figures, intellectuals, lawyers, bloggers, religious moderates, and reformists. Unfortunately, that is exactly the reason that Putrajaya is seeking closer ties with Australia, and Prime Minister Abbott should not be hoodwinked by such disingenuous machinations by Prime Minster Najib and his obsequious cabinet.
Actually, Srithanochai, Dr Jones is almost certainly wrong on that point. And very wrong: even without Thaksin, many close to the palace who have done very well by this reign would have been very nervous about losing their influence and benefits with the onset of the next reign.
Isn’t there a problem if campaigns in favour of the poor lead to environmental destruction and loss of forest species? As a great celebrity once said 2000 years ago, “the poor will always be with us”. But those species are disappearing forever.
The military on Sunday detained four people, including Prapart Pintobtang, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, who organized a walking rally against the junta’s policy to reclaim protected areas, which has heavily affected the poor.
——–
“AHRC ‘gravely concerned’ about Intimidation and detention of land rights activists”
In your view, what should be done to ensure that this “petroleum revenue fund” is managed along the line of some of the similar well-managed funds such as the Norwegian ones?
Also, I hope that in the course of your work, you and your fellow economists can lobby those in power for this fund to be managed well for the sake of the future generations while there are still consideration oil resources on Malaysian territories.
That makes two of us. My father’s generation of Burma’s wild children fought for independence and their dream was destroyed by their peers. This class struggle carries on, though my generation was born free men and women thanks to them, now almost all dead and gone.
My generation getting on in years and still to see the new dawn of a fair and just society, now depending on the next generation of wild children to fight on till People Power sees victory. Military rule must go the way colonial rule went, not of their own accord nor in their own sweet time, and most certainly not a moment too soon.
There is indeed such a fund, though it is relatively small (about RM1 billion as I recall). I have no idea who manages it, or what the returns are like.
Most of the taxes/royalties/duties/dividends from oil & gas are directly paid to the federal government and used for operational expenses (which includes subsidies and transfers).
Do you know whether Petronas has a similar fund like what Norway has, in the form of a sovereign fund to invest the taxes it collects from its petroleum profits in Norway? If yes, what is the current amount and returns? Thanks.
The elephant in the room, of course, is the late Alfredo, a new gen leader with his own power base. Precisely because he did have an alternative power base, Gusmao and Canberra colluded to have him killed at Same. This though has been typical of Gusmao’s m.o – get your rivals before they get you. Survival. East Timorese have never been hesitant to talk of Gusmao’s sins, unlike the activist academic set who manufactured a propagandist narrative for the struggle and continue to promote it, well past its use-by date.
The late de Mello, too, saw Gusmao as East Timor’s only hope, and covered up sins that would have led to the end of most politicians’ careers and a reaquaintance with the slammer.
Nor were 75 generation leaders less ‘Indonesian’ than the younger guys. You’d be hard put to find one who doesn’t have a close family member married to an Indonesian and living there. Some even had an Indonesian parent. The history of the Alkatiri family’s migration from Sana’a to Indonesia is well known. Many Liurai families spoke Indonesian prior to 75. I remember an octogenarian Dona apologising for her daughter, who couldn’t participate in our conversation because she’d been sent to the Portuguese school in Dili. Grandparents and grandchildren spoke Indonesian, the middle generation, 75, missed out.
There’s a certain group of new gen leaders who stake their legitimate claim to power with reference to Santa Cruz, claiming they obeyed the orders of the Dili based leadership to stage the protest/uprising, although those leaders knew the kids would be shot if they did so. Youth sacrificed by 75 gen leaders for the struggle = legitimate next in line to power.
Anyway, the struggle of the new gen leaders to sideline gen 75 can’t be told without a full account of the 2006 events. Gusmao and gen 75 are dirty, when the truth of 2006 is written the new gen will be shown to be just as compromised.
Agreed, Mael. Political/voter apathy seems almost un-Burmese given our history. Don’t you think however you, not the radicals who have never had a real chance to change things so far, are expecting too much too soon, and not expecting those radicals to think outside the box either and that there’s a whole new alternative to be worked out on and arguably perfected, collaboration or compromise, and less of the competition once they come and stay on top?
It’s not the people who are afraid of their wild children, it’s the ruling elite. And if the people can’t rely on their children to rebuild their country they might as well ask the children of their colonial masters back, like some of us spineless and servile souls who have come up with this novel idea that we should never have driven the British out but instead accepted what they deemed was best for us all in good time. Winston Churchill would be smiling in his grave.
Yes, I have seen these pictures. This recent demonstration in front of Dagon Center is really interesting for its use of the red and black flag of European anarcho-syndicalism. These guys know their politics, and that’s a good thing. Unfortunately, the slogans were no further indication of the type of education system these demonstrators would want, beyond rejecting the education bill…
I have written an article called “Future Political Parties in Myanmar” on February 10, 2010. One paragraph was dedicated to movements like this one, which it is every right of yours to agree with. As an outsider, I can only observe, the choice is yours to make.
“On the far left, Myanmar has a history of harboring radical movements, especially among university students. Anti-establishment ideas with a Marxist flavor are arguably deeper rooted here than in any other Asian country. In many ways, one could go as far as saying that many in the opposition are inclined to call for a boycott of the elections not only because of the present context, but because their ideology would lead them to oppose or at least not participate to any elections at all. Such movements are a positive sign of a society where ideas matter and where debates are vibrant. The people of Myanmar should not be afraid of their wild children: they will ensure the country will not witness any sort of political apathy. But they should also know they will not be able to rely on them to turn any of their ideals into realities. This is one thing radicals are known for the world over: they might be asking the right questions, they might generate much needed debate, and they may even come up with some good ideas. But their very radical and ever-questioning nature prevents them from making political decisions, which are always based on compromise. So called “underground networks”, among students, monks and other parts of society, as well as, critically, the more radicals within the NLD, fall into this category.”
While in no way defending the illegal trials and tribulation of Anwar Ibrahim, I must point out that DSAI has used his ill-treatment for political purposes, which I believe is indefensible. DSAI has not supported any political successor in PKR and still believes has a viable political career, when he does not. DSAI has always been a political chameleon, that says different things to different people. What he tells a Malay ceramah is vastly different than what he tells the Asia Society in New York, or his friend, Paul Wolfowitz. DSAI’s record on political consistency, even by Malaysia’s poor standards, is abysmal. One can condemn the persecutor, without necessarily defending the persecuted. DSAI’s ego and greek-tragedy life has arguably not benefitted Malaysia all that much, and even less so, his family. Meanwhile, Kassim Ahmad,
who is not an enabler, is not disingenuous, does not have a large head, and is no chameleon, but a Malaysian original, gets hardly any press whatsoever. One should be careful about falling into the celebrity activist trap, very common in Malaysia and one that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi experienced in Myanmar. I would rather we focus not on DSAI’s imperial self-important, but on the venal and illegal persecution of an 81-year old Malaysian scholar and intellectual, who has contributed enormously to Malaysia’s history and scholarship, and in return, is being treated like an animal by his own government. Kassim Ahmad should be the focus of our primary attention, and not DSAI.
These are all good points about the lack of Western-style democracy in Malaysia. But the REAL question, frequnetly ignored by Western critics is : what is the alternative ? There is NO WAY Anwar Ibrahim’s “rainbow coalition” can give Malaysia the economic growth, prosperity, political stability, and relative racial harmony which UMNO has provided, over decades. This so-called “rainbow coaltion” is in fact a dark, sinister, potentially very unstable and nationally de-stabilising coalition – eg. one of its’ MAJOR partner’s is Nik Azziz’s hard-core Islamic fundamentalist party already ruler in Malaysia’s two northern-most states, where it has brought in sharia law at TOTAL odds to everything Ibrahim’s liberalism claims to stand for.
Thanks Ed for sparking such an interesting debate.
Ryacudu was the guy who lined up his tanks outside Monas and the Presidential Palace as President Gus Dur was being impeached. The beneficiary of that impeachment was Megawati, who became President without being elected. She’s now rewarding Ryacudu’s loyalty.
‘Oh Really’, your analysis was informative, except the bit about Acehnese and Papuans ‘moving on’.
Overall, Jokowi has been politically smart with his Cabinet selections. The appointment of Ryacudu means he’s gonna give a long leash to the military (like the Megawati presidency did) but clamp down on Muslim extremists (who nearly won Prabowo the presidency)!
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The Lost Leadership of Timor Leste
East Timor should have been given a ‘one country, two systems’ form of government way back in 1975_6′, instead of this ever dubiously untenable mess.
Review of Kingdom in Crisis
This issue concerns ends or means. Is it and end for the elite to uphold the monarchy, or rather a means for the maintenance of their position? . In the first case, then there would be 1. no need for 112 as one can assume that hardly anybody in Thailand would really challenge the King. 2. no need to “rid Thailand from Thaksinism”, because if Thaksin would in fact challenge the King, he would rapidly loose his popular appeal. In the latter case one can understand why the elite regards Thaksin as danger, and sacralised the King (and associated 112) to enhance their own position as legitimate representatives/interpreters of the King and his wishes. Thaksin in contrast claims to be the representative of the people. What we have is a struggle over “representation”.
Closer ties: Australia and Malaysia
Closer ties between Malaysia and Australia will not lead to an improved human rights platform in Putrajaya. Until such time as the Malaysian Government learns to respect all its citizens, such ties should be not be used by a Malaysia as political cover to continue the persecution of opposition figures, intellectuals, lawyers, bloggers, religious moderates, and reformists. Unfortunately, that is exactly the reason that Putrajaya is seeking closer ties with Australia, and Prime Minister Abbott should not be hoodwinked by such disingenuous machinations by Prime Minster Najib and his obsequious cabinet.
Review of Kingdom in Crisis
Actually, Srithanochai, Dr Jones is almost certainly wrong on that point. And very wrong: even without Thaksin, many close to the palace who have done very well by this reign would have been very nervous about losing their influence and benefits with the onset of the next reign.
Review of Kingdom in Crisis
“Crucially, this concern would have been minimal in the absence of the political movement headed by Thaksin.”
Indeed.
Forest evictions under Prayuth?
Isn’t there a problem if campaigns in favour of the poor lead to environmental destruction and loss of forest species? As a great celebrity once said 2000 years ago, “the poor will always be with us”. But those species are disappearing forever.
Forest evictions under Prayuth?
“Military detains Chula academic, land rights activists in Chiang Mai after attempted rally”
http://prachatai.org/english/node/4471
The military on Sunday detained four people, including Prapart Pintobtang, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, who organized a walking rally against the junta’s policy to reclaim protected areas, which has heavily affected the poor.
——–
“AHRC ‘gravely concerned’ about Intimidation and detention of land rights activists”
http://prachatai.org/english/node/4475?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+prachataienglish+(Prachatai+in+English)
How did Laos come to be Laos?
Looks like an interesting book, where can i buy that? please advise! Many thanks!
Malaysia’s long term fiscal challenges
Hisham,
Thanks for the answer.
In your view, what should be done to ensure that this “petroleum revenue fund” is managed along the line of some of the similar well-managed funds such as the Norwegian ones?
Also, I hope that in the course of your work, you and your fellow economists can lobby those in power for this fund to be managed well for the sake of the future generations while there are still consideration oil resources on Malaysian territories.
Will Myanmar’s reforms continue after 2015?
That makes two of us. My father’s generation of Burma’s wild children fought for independence and their dream was destroyed by their peers. This class struggle carries on, though my generation was born free men and women thanks to them, now almost all dead and gone.
My generation getting on in years and still to see the new dawn of a fair and just society, now depending on the next generation of wild children to fight on till People Power sees victory. Military rule must go the way colonial rule went, not of their own accord nor in their own sweet time, and most certainly not a moment too soon.
Will Myanmar’s reforms continue after 2015?
Agreed. Fair points. You won’t blame me for expecting too much of a people I have come to respect very much, now, will you ? 🙂
Malaysia’s long term fiscal challenges
@Concerned Malaysian
There is indeed such a fund, though it is relatively small (about RM1 billion as I recall). I have no idea who manages it, or what the returns are like.
Most of the taxes/royalties/duties/dividends from oil & gas are directly paid to the federal government and used for operational expenses (which includes subsidies and transfers).
Malaysia’s long term fiscal challenges
Hisham,
Do you know whether Petronas has a similar fund like what Norway has, in the form of a sovereign fund to invest the taxes it collects from its petroleum profits in Norway? If yes, what is the current amount and returns? Thanks.
Myanmar Special Economic Zones, Part II
Land problem has begun recently.the local will lose a lot of land.
The Lost Leadership of Timor Leste
The elephant in the room, of course, is the late Alfredo, a new gen leader with his own power base. Precisely because he did have an alternative power base, Gusmao and Canberra colluded to have him killed at Same. This though has been typical of Gusmao’s m.o – get your rivals before they get you. Survival. East Timorese have never been hesitant to talk of Gusmao’s sins, unlike the activist academic set who manufactured a propagandist narrative for the struggle and continue to promote it, well past its use-by date.
The late de Mello, too, saw Gusmao as East Timor’s only hope, and covered up sins that would have led to the end of most politicians’ careers and a reaquaintance with the slammer.
Nor were 75 generation leaders less ‘Indonesian’ than the younger guys. You’d be hard put to find one who doesn’t have a close family member married to an Indonesian and living there. Some even had an Indonesian parent. The history of the Alkatiri family’s migration from Sana’a to Indonesia is well known. Many Liurai families spoke Indonesian prior to 75. I remember an octogenarian Dona apologising for her daughter, who couldn’t participate in our conversation because she’d been sent to the Portuguese school in Dili. Grandparents and grandchildren spoke Indonesian, the middle generation, 75, missed out.
There’s a certain group of new gen leaders who stake their legitimate claim to power with reference to Santa Cruz, claiming they obeyed the orders of the Dili based leadership to stage the protest/uprising, although those leaders knew the kids would be shot if they did so. Youth sacrificed by 75 gen leaders for the struggle = legitimate next in line to power.
Anyway, the struggle of the new gen leaders to sideline gen 75 can’t be told without a full account of the 2006 events. Gusmao and gen 75 are dirty, when the truth of 2006 is written the new gen will be shown to be just as compromised.
Will Myanmar’s reforms continue after 2015?
Agreed, Mael. Political/voter apathy seems almost un-Burmese given our history. Don’t you think however you, not the radicals who have never had a real chance to change things so far, are expecting too much too soon, and not expecting those radicals to think outside the box either and that there’s a whole new alternative to be worked out on and arguably perfected, collaboration or compromise, and less of the competition once they come and stay on top?
It’s not the people who are afraid of their wild children, it’s the ruling elite. And if the people can’t rely on their children to rebuild their country they might as well ask the children of their colonial masters back, like some of us spineless and servile souls who have come up with this novel idea that we should never have driven the British out but instead accepted what they deemed was best for us all in good time. Winston Churchill would be smiling in his grave.
Will Myanmar’s reforms continue after 2015?
Yes, I have seen these pictures. This recent demonstration in front of Dagon Center is really interesting for its use of the red and black flag of European anarcho-syndicalism. These guys know their politics, and that’s a good thing. Unfortunately, the slogans were no further indication of the type of education system these demonstrators would want, beyond rejecting the education bill…
I have written an article called “Future Political Parties in Myanmar” on February 10, 2010. One paragraph was dedicated to movements like this one, which it is every right of yours to agree with. As an outsider, I can only observe, the choice is yours to make.
“On the far left, Myanmar has a history of harboring radical movements, especially among university students. Anti-establishment ideas with a Marxist flavor are arguably deeper rooted here than in any other Asian country. In many ways, one could go as far as saying that many in the opposition are inclined to call for a boycott of the elections not only because of the present context, but because their ideology would lead them to oppose or at least not participate to any elections at all. Such movements are a positive sign of a society where ideas matter and where debates are vibrant. The people of Myanmar should not be afraid of their wild children: they will ensure the country will not witness any sort of political apathy. But they should also know they will not be able to rely on them to turn any of their ideals into realities. This is one thing radicals are known for the world over: they might be asking the right questions, they might generate much needed debate, and they may even come up with some good ideas. But their very radical and ever-questioning nature prevents them from making political decisions, which are always based on compromise. So called “underground networks”, among students, monks and other parts of society, as well as, critically, the more radicals within the NLD, fall into this category.”
Desperate times for democracy in Malaysia
While in no way defending the illegal trials and tribulation of Anwar Ibrahim, I must point out that DSAI has used his ill-treatment for political purposes, which I believe is indefensible. DSAI has not supported any political successor in PKR and still believes has a viable political career, when he does not. DSAI has always been a political chameleon, that says different things to different people. What he tells a Malay ceramah is vastly different than what he tells the Asia Society in New York, or his friend, Paul Wolfowitz. DSAI’s record on political consistency, even by Malaysia’s poor standards, is abysmal. One can condemn the persecutor, without necessarily defending the persecuted. DSAI’s ego and greek-tragedy life has arguably not benefitted Malaysia all that much, and even less so, his family. Meanwhile, Kassim Ahmad,
who is not an enabler, is not disingenuous, does not have a large head, and is no chameleon, but a Malaysian original, gets hardly any press whatsoever. One should be careful about falling into the celebrity activist trap, very common in Malaysia and one that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi experienced in Myanmar. I would rather we focus not on DSAI’s imperial self-important, but on the venal and illegal persecution of an 81-year old Malaysian scholar and intellectual, who has contributed enormously to Malaysia’s history and scholarship, and in return, is being treated like an animal by his own government. Kassim Ahmad should be the focus of our primary attention, and not DSAI.
Desperate times for democracy in Malaysia
These are all good points about the lack of Western-style democracy in Malaysia. But the REAL question, frequnetly ignored by Western critics is : what is the alternative ? There is NO WAY Anwar Ibrahim’s “rainbow coalition” can give Malaysia the economic growth, prosperity, political stability, and relative racial harmony which UMNO has provided, over decades. This so-called “rainbow coaltion” is in fact a dark, sinister, potentially very unstable and nationally de-stabilising coalition – eg. one of its’ MAJOR partner’s is Nik Azziz’s hard-core Islamic fundamentalist party already ruler in Malaysia’s two northern-most states, where it has brought in sharia law at TOTAL odds to everything Ibrahim’s liberalism claims to stand for.
Jokowi fails his first test
Thanks Ed for sparking such an interesting debate.
Ryacudu was the guy who lined up his tanks outside Monas and the Presidential Palace as President Gus Dur was being impeached. The beneficiary of that impeachment was Megawati, who became President without being elected. She’s now rewarding Ryacudu’s loyalty.
‘Oh Really’, your analysis was informative, except the bit about Acehnese and Papuans ‘moving on’.
Overall, Jokowi has been politically smart with his Cabinet selections. The appointment of Ryacudu means he’s gonna give a long leash to the military (like the Megawati presidency did) but clamp down on Muslim extremists (who nearly won Prabowo the presidency)!