I doubt if any polls at this stage tell us very much at all. But I think you are right that the concept of democratic government is not yet so deeply rooted in the Thai people that they are likely to react very quickly. After all they are inured to the military taking over. It took quite a long time for the reaction to come after the last coup. The acid test will come in the months ahead.
Meanwhile the Prayuth’s task is not helped by the Suthep’s latest outburst!
The positive response in the recent polls to the NCPO is not really surprising. There have certainly been some achievements like:
1. Re-establishing order in Bangkok after more than half a year of more or less chaos;
2. Tackling issues of mafia influences like the airport taxi and even more so the taxi mafia in Phuket;
3. Going after illegal activities like logging, gambling etc. and challenging those state officials from the police and even the military involved in it,
4. In general trying to implement law and order against dark influences and illegal powers.
In short, one might say that the military is finally doing what it is supposed to do. The question for me is, why have they not started to engage in such activities after 2006? Why did they not do what they are supposed to do before during the governments of Abhisit and Yingluck? Those who now respond so positive to the NCPO, why did they not demand that the military is doing its job earlier? A reason might be that then a coup could not be interpreted as necessary.
To carry on Vichai N’s comments regarding those two polls. It’s like this: when theeses two polls come out with their esults regarding yingluck ot thaksin in a positive light, i’ve not seen any complaints by NMites. But when they come out in support of Prayuth and the NCPO then shrill commnets and polls are not to be believed.
Well the result of one poll gave strong preference for Prayuth to be the interim PM at 41.3%; the closest to him was Anand at 8%. Another interesting result of the poll was that:
72.7% felt that “the country has a better atmosphere and is more peaceful.”
69.6% felt that, “Several core problems has been solved.”
65.4% “Want NCPO to continue governing the country until everythiing is properly in place.”
18.6% (the lowest score) wanted “Effective communication.”
NMites should try to understand that, yes, eventhough the majority of the populace are in the North and Northeast, it does not mean that a majority of them side with the red shirts nor that elections will bring them prosperity. They know full well that whoever gets into power will indulge in graft and corruption. All they want is some little something. And like a majority of Thais, the people in whatever area of the country, just want to get on with their lives. Thais aren’t like NMites who clammer for elections as though it were the right of all democratic loving people. Thais are more pragmatic and not given to shrill cries of elections, elections, elections!!!
Over worrying about Western opinions is an exercise of futility. The die has been cast and the Thaksin corruptive system had been disrupted at very significant costs to our freedoms. Let us cross our fingers that the interruptions to our basic freedoms will be impermanent and the changes/reforms that will be in place would strengthen Thailand ‘s democratic institutions to the extent that malevolent corruption will a never succeed amen
No matter what the NCPO does, it will be condemned by the West who has invested over the last decade in the now ousted regime of Thaksin Shinawatra. Therefore, the NCPO or a new Thai government should simply press on toward what is best for Thailand and its people, stability, peace and prosperity, with complete disregard for what the West “thinks.”
Regarding illegal labor – if the NCPO or a new government does nothing, it will be condemned. If it detains and deports illegal laborers, it will be condemned. If it does anything in between, it will be condemned for not doing enough in either or both directions. This is because the West doesn’t care about illegal labor or human exploitation – all they care about is undermining the NCPO or any new government and will look for any excuse to do so.
One could easily replace “the West” with NMites and not be wrong!
I didn’t find this debate boring. Sure, there wasn’t much substance (minus, Jokowi’s hiccup on the Indosat), but coming from an American perspective, to me, that’s typical. Domestic issues always trump international ones. And in the context of foreign affairs, voters are more likely to react to jingoistic railings than they are to the details of complex issues (like the ASEAN Community and SCS).
I thought that Prabowo came across as stronger in the debate because he was able to connect foreign issues to domestic ones. His point that Indonesia could have all the tanks, planes, and weapons it wanted, but that this wouldn’t mean anything without greater prosperity for the Indonesian people, resonated with me.
Also, since debates seem to be more about style than substance, Jokowi never seemed to hit his stride. He seemed hesitant in his answers and his speeches were peppered with too many starts and stops. I’m a Jokowi fan, so while I found this debate interesting, I found it also a bit discouraging. That’s just one person’s take away though.
Perhaps the real story is HOW important these debates are. Have political debates ever played as big a role as they do now in Indonesian politics? Although the lack of substance is regrettable (albeit expected), the very fact that they can shape the outcome of this close race makes them undoubtedly exciting.
Klo menurut gue yg salah dalam pelanggaran HAM itu ya jelas2 mahasiswanya lah, kyk kurang kerjaan dikit2 demo, rusuh, teriak2 kyk di hutan di zaman akhir orba (boleh di cek si mahasiswa yg hoby demo itu nilai ipk nya baik dan masuk ga dalam prestasi olimpiade ga sih internasional science kyk yg sudah di peroleh adik kita yg di SD skrg jgn2, cuma kuat bacot tp kemampuan di knowledge rendah. Klo si prabowo sih jalanin tugas aja, sebagai prajurit klo ada ancaman lgsg sikat maaf zaman dlu blm ada UU HAM. Itu kan jelas utk pengamanan dan stabilitas negara ya menurut ku sih masih dalam koridor wajar karna si mahasiswa yg anarkis dahulu . Lg pula pengaruh nya apa klo mahasiswa demo dg ga demo pjabat jg dengar ngga, kalian capek iya. Positif thinking.jgn paksakan org utk berubah tp paksakan diri anda utk memulai perubahan. Note: saya juga alumnimahasiswa tp ga sjka demo
What do you mean by “to make matter worse”? So you would much prefer seeing Jokowi & Prabowo stoking nationalism and Sukarno-style anti-West sentiment, instead of emphasising the importance of diplomacy and Australia-Indonesia relation?
“To make matters worse Australia escaped the debate unscathed. …Tony Abbot should rest easy knowing that both candidates actually agree on the importance of improving the relationship”
And also why they didn’t mention G20, Syria, the ASEAN community, the soft power instead of hard power ?? The issue of Palestine state is overrated as for maintaining territorial sovereignty. The world is turning to the 21Ist century mindset right now. Indonesia should keep up with the global competition with innovative diplomacies not just traditional diplomatics methods.
Indonesian Foreign Policy ? Simple: Act more Javanese when the Westerners are in town, for trade talks and summits, and act more Muslim, once they leave. When the Arab diplomats are in town, act more Muslim, and once when they leave, go back to being Javanese.
Its common knowledge that the PDRC and military conspired and orchestrated recent events with the goal of overthrowing the democratically elected government. Nonetheless it’s refreshing to hear the admission direct from the horses mouth.
The next admission required for Suthep and co to come clean with the public is to acknowledge that their so called ‘checks and balances judiciary’ (all good people hand picked by the 2006/7 dictators in preparation for recent events) are, like the military and the PDRC, merely another executive arm of the network monarchy.
This is of course also common knowledge, but it helps to break the monotony when the coup makers give up on the charade for a few moments from time to time.
Agreed. SBY was such a good friend of Australia’s that he recalled his Ambassador not once but twice, a feat not achieved by his predecessors.
Looking forward now to Jokowi or Prabowo going a step further and recalling the Ambassador three times so Canberra can declare one of them to be our new best friend ever the likes of whom we shall not see again, until someone else recalls the Ambassador four times.
Both Dusit and NIDA polls have been proven to be less reliable in reflecting public opinion since their sample sizes are relative small (2,000-4,000) and their results were often pre-determined by their questions. For example, Dusit poll reported that people were most please about paying the farmers but their samples were mostly city residents. On contrary, several reports from the country-side found most rice farmers to be rather indifference about being paid since they believe it’s the money the state has to pay them eventually.
As I previously wrote, the junta has yet to make any major policy decision, fearing the eventual and unavoidable repercussion from such decisions. The first test the junta will soon face is the fuel-price issues where taking any kind of action or not taking any action would cause adverse effect on the people at large, particularly city dwellers.
Yes Vichai I also feel Prayuth and his fellow dictators should start wearing business suits, after all, the coup is clearly a professional business affair instigated to benefit an exclusive group of traditional stakeholders who have been operating this same business model for decades now.
As with any successful mega business, great care has been taken to appoint capable front men to lead the key departments that make the business strategy viable.
Between the efforts of the appointed Prayuth, the appointed Suthep and the appointed one eyed judiciary, all key strategic bases were well covered and indeed the current outcome was effectively orchestrated and stage managed to achieve the desired and highly predictable outcome.
To keep this enterprise relevant, and to justify the significant social and economic impacts that are inherent to this particular business model, a lot of time and money is continually invested in propagating ever more creative justifications and sets of circumstances to enable the business to be progressed.
Nonetheless, the core business, remains unchanged.
Business success or failure in this case still hinges, as it has for decades on the ability to ride into town on tanks and seize the keys to the state coffers and the reigns of power.
The corporate repositioning by the coup makers to maintain relevance and acceptance in the eye of the public is called ‘rebranding’ amongst the international business community, in yellow talk and for the purposes of this latest business campaign it’s been called ‘saving the nation from Thaksin’.
Indeed Vichai, businessmen should wear business suits, there’s no need to vainly try to obscure it all behind army greens, Mickey Mouse selective polling or silly branding slogans like saving the nation from Thaksin.
I am questioning PS motive. I think he just want to be the president, period. He wants to rule Indonesia, period. Beside, I dont trust his sidekick nor his coalition parties. I think if he win then he will rule Indonesia like Suharto and with HR to rule the business world. Indonesia need someone like Jokowi who thinks global, who wants to work with the world, not againts the world.
Jokowi, klo menghargai demokraasi baiknya tuntaskan jabatannya aja deh di Jakarta…dia sdh diberi mandat oleh rakyat Jakarta dan tinggalkan krn sibuk mengejar ambisinya dan juga ambisi org2 disekitarnya. Bagaimana mungkin Anda menganggap klo Prabowo mencederai demokrasi kalau dia sendiri didukung oleh Ratusan kelompok Elemen MAsyarakat Indoensesia, Mayoritas Parlemen…. terlohat dari kampanye2 Beliau di bbbrp kota besar di Indoensia… kelhatan sekali klo penulis ini parno alias phobia dgn Prabowo… hehehe. lagian kok mesti takut sih?…kepentingannya apa???…Org Indoensia itu ga suka cari musuh, tapi klo diganggu yaa bisa kayak TAWON… jadi mari Kita hdup damai saling menghargai sesama tetangga…kami juga pernah tidak mau recokin pemilu di negara lain, jadi tidak usah repot repot menggiring opini yg bisa menyesatkan…Kami sgt menghargai itu, tapi klo terus2an Kami di “gigit’ jgn salahkan klo nasionalisme Kami mendidih… kami merdeka bukan krn hadiah, tapi karena perjuangan mengusir imperialisme di bumi pertiwi…jadi kami tidak takut apapun dgn ancaman mereka yg punya niat mencabik2 kedaulatan kami… Kami ingin hidup damai sejahtra dengan saudara2 negara tetangga…tolong juga mengerti Kami… Indoensia dipimpin org tak berkarakter kuat akan mudah ditunggangi Kapitalis…dan KAMI tdk akan membiarkan itu…
Maaf, menurut saya, artikel yang anda tulis tidak seimbang. Dan saya ingin meluruskan yang anda katakan bahwa ‘Pak Prabowo diberhentikan oleh Habibie karena adanya laporan Prabowo membawa pasukannya ke Istana’
FAKTANYA : Pada saat itu prabowo difitnah oleh seorang jendral. Dan lama-kelamaan akhirnya terungkap bahwa hal itu hanya sebuah fitnah. Habibie pun sudah meminta maaf ke Prabowo dan bahkan mengundang Prabowo ke kediaman beliau di Jerman sebagai rasa permintaan maaf.
Dan jika anda mengatakan Wiranto punya peranan penting pada saat itu, menurut saya, anda keliru. Justru pada saat itu Wiranto telah pergi kemana, hilang. Dan Prabowo yang mempunyai peranan penting.
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Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Fear breeds lies.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Not all “NMites” are particularly pro-Western. You for one!
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
I doubt if any polls at this stage tell us very much at all. But I think you are right that the concept of democratic government is not yet so deeply rooted in the Thai people that they are likely to react very quickly. After all they are inured to the military taking over. It took quite a long time for the reaction to come after the last coup. The acid test will come in the months ahead.
Meanwhile the Prayuth’s task is not helped by the Suthep’s latest outburst!
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
The positive response in the recent polls to the NCPO is not really surprising. There have certainly been some achievements like:
1. Re-establishing order in Bangkok after more than half a year of more or less chaos;
2. Tackling issues of mafia influences like the airport taxi and even more so the taxi mafia in Phuket;
3. Going after illegal activities like logging, gambling etc. and challenging those state officials from the police and even the military involved in it,
4. In general trying to implement law and order against dark influences and illegal powers.
In short, one might say that the military is finally doing what it is supposed to do. The question for me is, why have they not started to engage in such activities after 2006? Why did they not do what they are supposed to do before during the governments of Abhisit and Yingluck? Those who now respond so positive to the NCPO, why did they not demand that the military is doing its job earlier? A reason might be that then a coup could not be interpreted as necessary.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
To carry on Vichai N’s comments regarding those two polls. It’s like this: when theeses two polls come out with their esults regarding yingluck ot thaksin in a positive light, i’ve not seen any complaints by NMites. But when they come out in support of Prayuth and the NCPO then shrill commnets and polls are not to be believed.
Well the result of one poll gave strong preference for Prayuth to be the interim PM at 41.3%; the closest to him was Anand at 8%. Another interesting result of the poll was that:
72.7% felt that “the country has a better atmosphere and is more peaceful.”
69.6% felt that, “Several core problems has been solved.”
65.4% “Want NCPO to continue governing the country until everythiing is properly in place.”
18.6% (the lowest score) wanted “Effective communication.”
NMites should try to understand that, yes, eventhough the majority of the populace are in the North and Northeast, it does not mean that a majority of them side with the red shirts nor that elections will bring them prosperity. They know full well that whoever gets into power will indulge in graft and corruption. All they want is some little something. And like a majority of Thais, the people in whatever area of the country, just want to get on with their lives. Thais aren’t like NMites who clammer for elections as though it were the right of all democratic loving people. Thais are more pragmatic and not given to shrill cries of elections, elections, elections!!!
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Over worrying about Western opinions is an exercise of futility. The die has been cast and the Thaksin corruptive system had been disrupted at very significant costs to our freedoms. Let us cross our fingers that the interruptions to our basic freedoms will be impermanent and the changes/reforms that will be in place would strengthen Thailand ‘s democratic institutions to the extent that malevolent corruption will a never succeed amen
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
No matter what the NCPO does, it will be condemned by the West who has invested over the last decade in the now ousted regime of Thaksin Shinawatra. Therefore, the NCPO or a new Thai government should simply press on toward what is best for Thailand and its people, stability, peace and prosperity, with complete disregard for what the West “thinks.”
Regarding illegal labor – if the NCPO or a new government does nothing, it will be condemned. If it detains and deports illegal laborers, it will be condemned. If it does anything in between, it will be condemned for not doing enough in either or both directions. This is because the West doesn’t care about illegal labor or human exploitation – all they care about is undermining the NCPO or any new government and will look for any excuse to do so.
One could easily replace “the West” with NMites and not be wrong!
Foreign affairs a stranger to Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls
I didn’t find this debate boring. Sure, there wasn’t much substance (minus, Jokowi’s hiccup on the Indosat), but coming from an American perspective, to me, that’s typical. Domestic issues always trump international ones. And in the context of foreign affairs, voters are more likely to react to jingoistic railings than they are to the details of complex issues (like the ASEAN Community and SCS).
I thought that Prabowo came across as stronger in the debate because he was able to connect foreign issues to domestic ones. His point that Indonesia could have all the tanks, planes, and weapons it wanted, but that this wouldn’t mean anything without greater prosperity for the Indonesian people, resonated with me.
Also, since debates seem to be more about style than substance, Jokowi never seemed to hit his stride. He seemed hesitant in his answers and his speeches were peppered with too many starts and stops. I’m a Jokowi fan, so while I found this debate interesting, I found it also a bit discouraging. That’s just one person’s take away though.
Perhaps the real story is HOW important these debates are. Have political debates ever played as big a role as they do now in Indonesian politics? Although the lack of substance is regrettable (albeit expected), the very fact that they can shape the outcome of this close race makes them undoubtedly exciting.
Demokrasi Indonesia Dalam Bahaya
Klo menurut gue yg salah dalam pelanggaran HAM itu ya jelas2 mahasiswanya lah, kyk kurang kerjaan dikit2 demo, rusuh, teriak2 kyk di hutan di zaman akhir orba (boleh di cek si mahasiswa yg hoby demo itu nilai ipk nya baik dan masuk ga dalam prestasi olimpiade ga sih internasional science kyk yg sudah di peroleh adik kita yg di SD skrg jgn2, cuma kuat bacot tp kemampuan di knowledge rendah. Klo si prabowo sih jalanin tugas aja, sebagai prajurit klo ada ancaman lgsg sikat maaf zaman dlu blm ada UU HAM. Itu kan jelas utk pengamanan dan stabilitas negara ya menurut ku sih masih dalam koridor wajar karna si mahasiswa yg anarkis dahulu . Lg pula pengaruh nya apa klo mahasiswa demo dg ga demo pjabat jg dengar ngga, kalian capek iya. Positif thinking.jgn paksakan org utk berubah tp paksakan diri anda utk memulai perubahan. Note: saya juga alumnimahasiswa tp ga sjka demo
Foreign affairs a stranger to Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls
What do you mean by “to make matter worse”? So you would much prefer seeing Jokowi & Prabowo stoking nationalism and Sukarno-style anti-West sentiment, instead of emphasising the importance of diplomacy and Australia-Indonesia relation?
“To make matters worse Australia escaped the debate unscathed. …Tony Abbot should rest easy knowing that both candidates actually agree on the importance of improving the relationship”
Foreign affairs a stranger to Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls
And also why they didn’t mention G20, Syria, the ASEAN community, the soft power instead of hard power ?? The issue of Palestine state is overrated as for maintaining territorial sovereignty. The world is turning to the 21Ist century mindset right now. Indonesia should keep up with the global competition with innovative diplomacies not just traditional diplomatics methods.
Foreign affairs a stranger to Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls
Indonesian Foreign Policy ? Simple: Act more Javanese when the Westerners are in town, for trade talks and summits, and act more Muslim, once they leave. When the Arab diplomats are in town, act more Muslim, and once when they leave, go back to being Javanese.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Its common knowledge that the PDRC and military conspired and orchestrated recent events with the goal of overthrowing the democratically elected government. Nonetheless it’s refreshing to hear the admission direct from the horses mouth.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/416810/suthep-in-talks-with-prayuth-since-2010
The next admission required for Suthep and co to come clean with the public is to acknowledge that their so called ‘checks and balances judiciary’ (all good people hand picked by the 2006/7 dictators in preparation for recent events) are, like the military and the PDRC, merely another executive arm of the network monarchy.
This is of course also common knowledge, but it helps to break the monotony when the coup makers give up on the charade for a few moments from time to time.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Vichy, you should be more angry at Prayuth for not wacking Suthep at the onset of the coup. He has been making some very bad statements for your side.
Indonesia’s promoter-in-chief
Agreed. SBY was such a good friend of Australia’s that he recalled his Ambassador not once but twice, a feat not achieved by his predecessors.
Looking forward now to Jokowi or Prabowo going a step further and recalling the Ambassador three times so Canberra can declare one of them to be our new best friend ever the likes of whom we shall not see again, until someone else recalls the Ambassador four times.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Both Dusit and NIDA polls have been proven to be less reliable in reflecting public opinion since their sample sizes are relative small (2,000-4,000) and their results were often pre-determined by their questions. For example, Dusit poll reported that people were most please about paying the farmers but their samples were mostly city residents. On contrary, several reports from the country-side found most rice farmers to be rather indifference about being paid since they believe it’s the money the state has to pay them eventually.
As I previously wrote, the junta has yet to make any major policy decision, fearing the eventual and unavoidable repercussion from such decisions. The first test the junta will soon face is the fuel-price issues where taking any kind of action or not taking any action would cause adverse effect on the people at large, particularly city dwellers.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Yes Vichai I also feel Prayuth and his fellow dictators should start wearing business suits, after all, the coup is clearly a professional business affair instigated to benefit an exclusive group of traditional stakeholders who have been operating this same business model for decades now.
As with any successful mega business, great care has been taken to appoint capable front men to lead the key departments that make the business strategy viable.
Between the efforts of the appointed Prayuth, the appointed Suthep and the appointed one eyed judiciary, all key strategic bases were well covered and indeed the current outcome was effectively orchestrated and stage managed to achieve the desired and highly predictable outcome.
To keep this enterprise relevant, and to justify the significant social and economic impacts that are inherent to this particular business model, a lot of time and money is continually invested in propagating ever more creative justifications and sets of circumstances to enable the business to be progressed.
Nonetheless, the core business, remains unchanged.
Business success or failure in this case still hinges, as it has for decades on the ability to ride into town on tanks and seize the keys to the state coffers and the reigns of power.
The corporate repositioning by the coup makers to maintain relevance and acceptance in the eye of the public is called ‘rebranding’ amongst the international business community, in yellow talk and for the purposes of this latest business campaign it’s been called ‘saving the nation from Thaksin’.
Indeed Vichai, businessmen should wear business suits, there’s no need to vainly try to obscure it all behind army greens, Mickey Mouse selective polling or silly branding slogans like saving the nation from Thaksin.
Let’s just call a spade a spade.
Demokrasi Indonesia Dalam Bahaya
I am questioning PS motive. I think he just want to be the president, period. He wants to rule Indonesia, period. Beside, I dont trust his sidekick nor his coalition parties. I think if he win then he will rule Indonesia like Suharto and with HR to rule the business world. Indonesia need someone like Jokowi who thinks global, who wants to work with the world, not againts the world.
Demokrasi Indonesia Dalam Bahaya
Jokowi, klo menghargai demokraasi baiknya tuntaskan jabatannya aja deh di Jakarta…dia sdh diberi mandat oleh rakyat Jakarta dan tinggalkan krn sibuk mengejar ambisinya dan juga ambisi org2 disekitarnya. Bagaimana mungkin Anda menganggap klo Prabowo mencederai demokrasi kalau dia sendiri didukung oleh Ratusan kelompok Elemen MAsyarakat Indoensesia, Mayoritas Parlemen…. terlohat dari kampanye2 Beliau di bbbrp kota besar di Indoensia… kelhatan sekali klo penulis ini parno alias phobia dgn Prabowo… hehehe. lagian kok mesti takut sih?…kepentingannya apa???…Org Indoensia itu ga suka cari musuh, tapi klo diganggu yaa bisa kayak TAWON… jadi mari Kita hdup damai saling menghargai sesama tetangga…kami juga pernah tidak mau recokin pemilu di negara lain, jadi tidak usah repot repot menggiring opini yg bisa menyesatkan…Kami sgt menghargai itu, tapi klo terus2an Kami di “gigit’ jgn salahkan klo nasionalisme Kami mendidih… kami merdeka bukan krn hadiah, tapi karena perjuangan mengusir imperialisme di bumi pertiwi…jadi kami tidak takut apapun dgn ancaman mereka yg punya niat mencabik2 kedaulatan kami… Kami ingin hidup damai sejahtra dengan saudara2 negara tetangga…tolong juga mengerti Kami… Indoensia dipimpin org tak berkarakter kuat akan mudah ditunggangi Kapitalis…dan KAMI tdk akan membiarkan itu…
Demokrasi Indonesia Dalam Bahaya
Maaf, menurut saya, artikel yang anda tulis tidak seimbang. Dan saya ingin meluruskan yang anda katakan bahwa ‘Pak Prabowo diberhentikan oleh Habibie karena adanya laporan Prabowo membawa pasukannya ke Istana’
FAKTANYA : Pada saat itu prabowo difitnah oleh seorang jendral. Dan lama-kelamaan akhirnya terungkap bahwa hal itu hanya sebuah fitnah. Habibie pun sudah meminta maaf ke Prabowo dan bahkan mengundang Prabowo ke kediaman beliau di Jerman sebagai rasa permintaan maaf.
Dan jika anda mengatakan Wiranto punya peranan penting pada saat itu, menurut saya, anda keliru. Justru pada saat itu Wiranto telah pergi kemana, hilang. Dan Prabowo yang mempunyai peranan penting.