If you are going to wear Niqab, you really should cover the rest of the body, as well. I know they do things differently down in Oz, but rules are rules (and the pissing scene is really Haram). I knew Shari’a Law would make it to ANU sooner or later. And so fashionable too.
It will be like it was 8yr ago. Appointed PM who will have difficulty in economy due to political unrest by Suthep and co. Then, they will find the way to help Democrat to form government after election. They could not allow straight forward election because PT will win again.
Looks like the usual rag-tag bunch of intellectual apologist hypocrites are hard at work on this site – trying their damnedest to coerce the silenced majority into foolishly funding yet again the local political dog’s breakfast to no good end.
QUOTE: We can kiss goodbye to democracy for a long time while they go about their “reforms” and do everything in their power to get rid of the Thaksin “regime.”UNQUOTE
It’s not as if we ever really said hallo. What democracy? When?
The crazy thing about this site is that its hard-core pundits constantly trot out the deliberately deceitful propaganda of ….. the various power struggle factions. In other words, most opinion expressed hereabouts is completely useless to anyone who truly wishes to step outside the usual endless vicious circle of fraudulent coup – fraudulent politics – fraudulent election – fraudulent democracy – fraudulent government – fraudulent reform – fraudulent constitution – fraudulent development – fat profit – fraudulent coup.
It is vital that the international community voice it’s opposition to this illegal coup. Some brave Thais have protested tonight in BKK. All of us must support them.
It’s quiet here now. A lull before the opposition mounts especially in the North.
I fear that this is going to turn out very badly with violence and oppression the order of the day.
Sanctions against the generals including a travel ban are needed.
Mariner#14. Prayuth has already announced that they will set up a reform council and a national legislature. So one can assume they will go ahead and legislate the reforms before an election. I guess they didn’t think much of Jatuporn’s proposal. Anyway Prayuth’s behavior implied that the PT/red side gave up the chance of that type of input in the process when the caretaker cabinet refused to resign to allow the process to begin under martial law without a coup.
Civil War is inevitable – maybe not right away but eventually. It will begin with an insurgency, much like in the South, but it will originate in the north and northeast, the heartland of the Red Shirt movement. Unlike in the South, the numbers do not favor the Thai Army at 250,000 to millions of Reds. The issue is much larger than Thaksin, Suthep, the UDD or the PDRC. Let’s admit it… the huge elephant in the room is the fervent desire to bring down the monarchy – “lom jao” – and rid Siam of the decrepit, feudal aristocracy that has subjugated the people for centuries. They cannot stop it – it will be bloody, very bloody – but it will happen.
Your first critique is the most interesting for me. That you cite Lipset’s ’59 “social requisites” is also telling for many reasons. You’ve stressed the economic aspect, but as I know you know, those requisites of Lipset for democracy–or what he calls a “stable democracy” through the lenses of Schumpter and Weber–are at least two fold: “economic development and legitimacy” (pg.71). How he goes about measuring those elements can be broken down further.
I am guessing for most of the authors of this text, Lipset’s variant of modernization is not what they would expect a reviewer to cite. This is because most contemporary researchers might think that Lipset’s analysis is overly “behavioralist” or too Western.
However, as a national of Cambodia, you already lend some additional credibility to an analysis that wishes to revitalize some aspects of Lipset’s framework. Of course, it would have to be further developed beyond what is here, but I would enjoy reading it.
Modernization, if done smartly, is very much worth a second look, and Cambodia since the end of the Khmer Rouge would make as good of a case study as any.
Ok so they’ve torn up the constitution (again, but human rights under the UN declaration on human rights are presumably still enjoyed by all, in theory. I think we have seen several violations of these by the junta already. I wonder how this will go down in the international community.
Bangkok would be bracing for the assault of Thaksin’s vicious black shirts now that he could NOT get the ‘amnesty’ he has begging and killing for for so many years and now that his sycophantic Peau Thai party had been eased from power disgracefully. Another arson attack at Rachaprasong perhaps … just like old times.
I’m curious to know what is the official position of the Suthep/phrayuth alliance on Jatuporn’s proposal of a referendum on whether to have a) reform before elections, of b) go ahead with elections as planned.
It’s the official position I’m curious about of course(After all, they can hardly admit publicly that such a referendum would fail to return the correct result).
Iya Thomas! Now that the only non-Muslim VP candidate has ‘loncat’ from Hanura to support Prahara, that cleavage, is sadly, getting even harder to see. 🙁
But presumably Prayuth and his cronies are themselves going to ask for amnesty, are they not? After all they know they have broken the law – their own law as it happens. That is what Sonthi and the 2006 mob, including Prayuth, did. That would appear to be a necessary part of the deal.
The Army General Prayuth Chan-ocha is going to be kicked out in September. So, he thought of not only staying on, but become Thai ruler.
BLOODY Thailand I said above.
Now Bloodiest! blood is going to be everywhere. Why can’t USA/UK/Europe step in, the way they saved other countries?
Thank you very much for your feedback, Ririn. You make two very important points which are worth discussing.
(1) You’re probably right on the minimal difference between Golkar, PD and Hanura/Nasdem. It seems that Nasdem (though it’s still early days) is a pretty cosmopolitan party, despite a reasonable number of ‘santri’ in its ranks. Neither party has offered what is ostensibly a concession to Islamic political interests (ala Gerindra’s manifesto). However, your point about the future direction of their alignments stands. The simplistic typology I’ve employed here allows for some broad analytical commentary, but isn’t designed to accommodate nuance. The most comprehensive schema I’ve seen comes from a 2008 paper by Muhadi Sugiono & Wawan Mas’udi (“Peta Ideologi Partai Politik Peserta Pemilu 2009”): for what it’s worth, they placed Hanura at ‘secular’ extreme of their typology.
(2) Golkar is definitely the shining example of a party willing to engage in ‘promiscuous power sharing’. As I mentioned in this article, the party probably won’t mind the decision of a number of its cadre to join Jokowi-JK, because it gives Golkar a ‘foot in both camps’. Tantowi’s comments are in line with his party’s typical power-seeking posture. Not sure that this sort of behaviour can necessarily be considered a *systemic* trait, though.
Burmese domestic and foreign policy or more accurately posturing seems to have two independent and different streams. One is the one everyone is looking, analyzing and talking about, the one figure-headed by the likes of that Thamada-gyi-the most gracious dinner host, along with his wife, of the lady on the 18th August 2011- and his “think -tank of Soe Thein, Hyaena Aung Min, BS Ye Htut, etc. For them, it is true. their main aim seems to be to match and “better” than the lowly neighbors i terms of iPAD usage and coverage, number of cars around, airport size, winning beauty pageant, so on and so forth, for vanity. As being vane is so popular, the audience is huge.
And another one which ever one wants to know but no one seems to be sure even where it is or who they are. A real think tank directly controlled by and answerable only to Than Shwe, where real decisions come out of. that is the one which keeps the punters in disarray all the time. Like to double-crossing the Chinks about the Dam, or decision to give Qatar and Norway the licence for communication lines. In today’s age and tech, he/ ok,ok she whoever controls the communication lines control the country, region, town, world, anything. Money is keyboard taps, rocket is keyboard tap or iPAD scratch, love is a scratch, etc.
Accordingly, whether Burma will relinquish her sovereignty over to the IMF, WB on behalf of soulless, ruthless global scavenging syndicate, as other countries have gone before or Aung San Suu Kyi would have rushed the country into, is at best still unknown.
In one memorable scene, Don Corleone said, “Our true enemy has not shown his hand yet”. Poor west!
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ANU No Coup
If you are going to wear Niqab, you really should cover the rest of the body, as well. I know they do things differently down in Oz, but rules are rules (and the pissing scene is really Haram). I knew Shari’a Law would make it to ANU sooner or later. And so fashionable too.
Coup? What coup?
It will be like it was 8yr ago. Appointed PM who will have difficulty in economy due to political unrest by Suthep and co. Then, they will find the way to help Democrat to form government after election. They could not allow straight forward election because PT will win again.
A coup by any other name…
Looks like the usual rag-tag bunch of intellectual apologist hypocrites are hard at work on this site – trying their damnedest to coerce the silenced majority into foolishly funding yet again the local political dog’s breakfast to no good end.
QUOTE: We can kiss goodbye to democracy for a long time while they go about their “reforms” and do everything in their power to get rid of the Thaksin “regime.”UNQUOTE
It’s not as if we ever really said hallo. What democracy? When?
The crazy thing about this site is that its hard-core pundits constantly trot out the deliberately deceitful propaganda of ….. the various power struggle factions. In other words, most opinion expressed hereabouts is completely useless to anyone who truly wishes to step outside the usual endless vicious circle of fraudulent coup – fraudulent politics – fraudulent election – fraudulent democracy – fraudulent government – fraudulent reform – fraudulent constitution – fraudulent development – fat profit – fraudulent coup.
ANU No Coup
It is vital that the international community voice it’s opposition to this illegal coup. Some brave Thais have protested tonight in BKK. All of us must support them.
It’s quiet here now. A lull before the opposition mounts especially in the North.
I fear that this is going to turn out very badly with violence and oppression the order of the day.
Sanctions against the generals including a travel ban are needed.
Coup? What coup?
Mariner#14. Prayuth has already announced that they will set up a reform council and a national legislature. So one can assume they will go ahead and legislate the reforms before an election. I guess they didn’t think much of Jatuporn’s proposal. Anyway Prayuth’s behavior implied that the PT/red side gave up the chance of that type of input in the process when the caretaker cabinet refused to resign to allow the process to begin under martial law without a coup.
A coup by any other name…
Civil War is inevitable – maybe not right away but eventually. It will begin with an insurgency, much like in the South, but it will originate in the north and northeast, the heartland of the Red Shirt movement. Unlike in the South, the numbers do not favor the Thai Army at 250,000 to millions of Reds. The issue is much larger than Thaksin, Suthep, the UDD or the PDRC. Let’s admit it… the huge elephant in the room is the fervent desire to bring down the monarchy – “lom jao” – and rid Siam of the decrepit, feudal aristocracy that has subjugated the people for centuries. They cannot stop it – it will be bloody, very bloody – but it will happen.
Review of Beyond Democracy in Cambodia
Thank you for the review!
Your first critique is the most interesting for me. That you cite Lipset’s ’59 “social requisites” is also telling for many reasons. You’ve stressed the economic aspect, but as I know you know, those requisites of Lipset for democracy–or what he calls a “stable democracy” through the lenses of Schumpter and Weber–are at least two fold: “economic development and legitimacy” (pg.71). How he goes about measuring those elements can be broken down further.
Here is that famous article: http://eppam.weebly.com/uploads/5/5/6/2/5562069/lipset1959_apsr.pdf
I am guessing for most of the authors of this text, Lipset’s variant of modernization is not what they would expect a reviewer to cite. This is because most contemporary researchers might think that Lipset’s analysis is overly “behavioralist” or too Western.
However, as a national of Cambodia, you already lend some additional credibility to an analysis that wishes to revitalize some aspects of Lipset’s framework. Of course, it would have to be further developed beyond what is here, but I would enjoy reading it.
Modernization, if done smartly, is very much worth a second look, and Cambodia since the end of the Khmer Rouge would make as good of a case study as any.
good review. Cheers, -thomas
A coup by any other name…
The question in every Thai’s mind: What is Thaksin going to do?
Will Thaksin:
(1) Strike back lethally with venom, violence and destruction via his vicious black shirts M79-grenade launching mercenaries?
(2) Or stick to merely peaceful propaganda attacks until the ‘coupists’ eventually wear themselves out … until the next elections.
Counting Thailand’s coups
[…] Nicholas Farrelly, a Southeast Asia scholar and a professor at Australian National University, wrote on the website New Mandala this […]
A coup by any other name…
Ok so they’ve torn up the constitution (again, but human rights under the UN declaration on human rights are presumably still enjoyed by all, in theory. I think we have seen several violations of these by the junta already. I wonder how this will go down in the international community.
Coup? What coup?
Bangkok would be bracing for the assault of Thaksin’s vicious black shirts now that he could NOT get the ‘amnesty’ he has begging and killing for for so many years and now that his sycophantic Peau Thai party had been eased from power disgracefully. Another arson attack at Rachaprasong perhaps … just like old times.
Coup? What coup?
I’m curious to know what is the official position of the Suthep/phrayuth alliance on Jatuporn’s proposal of a referendum on whether to have a) reform before elections, of b) go ahead with elections as planned.
It’s the official position I’m curious about of course(After all, they can hardly admit publicly that such a referendum would fail to return the correct result).
Is there an ideological cleavage in 2014?
Iya Thomas! Now that the only non-Muslim VP candidate has ‘loncat’ from Hanura to support Prahara, that cleavage, is sadly, getting even harder to see. 🙁
Coup? What coup?
But presumably Prayuth and his cronies are themselves going to ask for amnesty, are they not? After all they know they have broken the law – their own law as it happens. That is what Sonthi and the 2006 mob, including Prayuth, did. That would appear to be a necessary part of the deal.
Coup? What coup?
Right, you forgot to add that Prawit demanded amnesty, which was unacceptable to Prayuth, so the coup was on.
Thailand’s election: 2 February 2014
The Army General Prayuth Chan-ocha is going to be kicked out in September. So, he thought of not only staying on, but become Thai ruler.
BLOODY Thailand I said above.
Now Bloodiest! blood is going to be everywhere. Why can’t USA/UK/Europe step in, the way they saved other countries?
Coup? What coup?
You mean it will be a case of history repeating itself? The first occasion was certainly a tragedy; the second looks like turning into a farce
Is there an ideological cleavage in 2014?
Thank you very much for your feedback, Ririn. You make two very important points which are worth discussing.
(1) You’re probably right on the minimal difference between Golkar, PD and Hanura/Nasdem. It seems that Nasdem (though it’s still early days) is a pretty cosmopolitan party, despite a reasonable number of ‘santri’ in its ranks. Neither party has offered what is ostensibly a concession to Islamic political interests (ala Gerindra’s manifesto). However, your point about the future direction of their alignments stands. The simplistic typology I’ve employed here allows for some broad analytical commentary, but isn’t designed to accommodate nuance. The most comprehensive schema I’ve seen comes from a 2008 paper by Muhadi Sugiono & Wawan Mas’udi (“Peta Ideologi Partai Politik Peserta Pemilu 2009”): for what it’s worth, they placed Hanura at ‘secular’ extreme of their typology.
(2) Golkar is definitely the shining example of a party willing to engage in ‘promiscuous power sharing’. As I mentioned in this article, the party probably won’t mind the decision of a number of its cadre to join Jokowi-JK, because it gives Golkar a ‘foot in both camps’. Tantowi’s comments are in line with his party’s typical power-seeking posture. Not sure that this sort of behaviour can necessarily be considered a *systemic* trait, though.
Thank you again for your insightful comments.
Coup? What coup?
And what Happens in the north is Lanna.
Myanmar as middle power
Burmese domestic and foreign policy or more accurately posturing seems to have two independent and different streams. One is the one everyone is looking, analyzing and talking about, the one figure-headed by the likes of that Thamada-gyi-the most gracious dinner host, along with his wife, of the lady on the 18th August 2011- and his “think -tank of Soe Thein, Hyaena Aung Min, BS Ye Htut, etc. For them, it is true. their main aim seems to be to match and “better” than the lowly neighbors i terms of iPAD usage and coverage, number of cars around, airport size, winning beauty pageant, so on and so forth, for vanity. As being vane is so popular, the audience is huge.
And another one which ever one wants to know but no one seems to be sure even where it is or who they are. A real think tank directly controlled by and answerable only to Than Shwe, where real decisions come out of. that is the one which keeps the punters in disarray all the time. Like to double-crossing the Chinks about the Dam, or decision to give Qatar and Norway the licence for communication lines. In today’s age and tech, he/ ok,ok she whoever controls the communication lines control the country, region, town, world, anything. Money is keyboard taps, rocket is keyboard tap or iPAD scratch, love is a scratch, etc.
Accordingly, whether Burma will relinquish her sovereignty over to the IMF, WB on behalf of soulless, ruthless global scavenging syndicate, as other countries have gone before or Aung San Suu Kyi would have rushed the country into, is at best still unknown.
In one memorable scene, Don Corleone said, “Our true enemy has not shown his hand yet”. Poor west!