The government’s defaults on payments to farmers amount to 10% of the entire agricultural production for 2013. Farmers in Isaan are worst hit because they only have one crop per year, so for many of them the government has defaulted on their entire annual production. It seems that this default was already well advanced before the protests started.
Are Isaan farmers now regarded expendable collateral damage in Thaksinomics?
The ammart is hydra-headed. And this administration is just the latest manifestation. No loss, Jim. Just a slightly uncomfortable transformation, with a few unfortunately lost lives of lost souls along the way. Tomorrow, the current government will (of course) completely slime its way out of any responsibility for its term of criminality and incompetence. They always do. (Yet more proof that academe and analysis just doesn’t cut it in in the big bad real world.)Suthep will of course have worked OT for no good reason. Wrong man for the job. He really should have known better. Well, what do you really expect of the party that burdened Thailand with a populist despot through its own flat-out complacent politics?
Chan’s response is not that impressive really. Just another attempt by an obvious insider to fool the public into accepting far less than a properly-functioning system by piling on the “impossible to ever shift” stuff. Chan has identified some hometruths. But nothing that is really much more honest & incisive than the Vanina letter. Both have a fairly obvious insider agenda. Both seem content to act as apologists for the delusional(but conflicting)aspirations of the various local establishment factions – none of which are ever likely to free any of their cheap labor slaves. Life is far too cushy at the lazy-arse top in this country.
Business will always worry about its long-term prospects in such a sour environment. But business has done a fine job of just sweeping the problem under the carpet for decades. Chan’s response is not going to have any appreciable impact on the various shady dealings of the local succession-hungry factions. His claim, that this is a semi-democracy, rings particularly hollow.
How does the LSE & Chicago man propose to make this (or the next) election work any better than all the other ‘pretend democracy’ elections here since the end of absolute monarchy? Indeed, why isn’t he running for parliament? At a rough guess, it’s because he knows all too well that politics here is so inextricably linked with kleptocracy, nepotism, cross-border illegal trade and a whole host of other criminal stuff. So much so, that he and other like-minded reformers stand zero chance of ever being elected.
[…] by the highly respected historian and political commentator on Thai issues, Chris Baker, and republished recently in New Mandala, makes this point. While the map shows solid support for the Democrats (the political party linked […]
Thank you very much, Chan, for this concise expose.
I have argued many times, the very same points, but with much less finesse.
Shinawatr has many faults, but the above stated misdeeds, I agree, are misused, and an abuse of institutional powers that would only lead to the erosion of trust that could only be bad for Thailand’s democratic progress in the longer run.
Thaksin’s strategy for Yingluck to call an election (‘Thaksin thinks, Yingluck speaks’) so that a fresh mandate could whitewash his government’s serious failings (and few successes) may well backfire, because his characteristic hubris and greed will blind him to the increasing number of voters intending to abstain or voting ‘No’ tomorrow.
Having said that, Thaksin’s ridiculous and widely disparaged explanation, after promising he would not accept the Prime Ministership if the primary vote for his party DECREASED (in a previous election also boycotted on principle by the Democrat Party) leaves little hope that any ‘wake-up call’ will register with the ‘big boss’.
To explain, Thaksin went on TV nationwide post-election to try and sell the story that, because his party had INCREASED its share of the primary vote (bound to happen because of the boycott) he could remain PM without breaking his pre-election promise.
Of course, in 2010 he went on to surpass that by his one-man veto of an agreement between the Red Shirts and the Democrat Party for elections in six months, which was mainly responsible for the deaths on both sides during the eventual crackdown as well as the delaying of elections for 18 months, not six.
The current caretaker government of Yingluck Shinawatra has already declared that it will consider every vote cast to be a vote of confidence in the government itself. Notwithstanding Thaksin’s track record in co-opting smaller parties to share in the spoils (and avoid punitive measures) it seems unlikely that he will be much bothered however low voter turn-out may be or however high the ‘No’ vote.
Thus it seems likely that it will be up to the judiciary (not the army) to make sense of the election result, which will likely take several months to finalize, leaving Thailand in political limbo for some time to come.
At long last, a well argued and truthful expose of Thai contemporary socio-political reality.
If the “ammart” do not understand, then blood will flow. This is not about the Shinawatra family. This is about righting the wrongs of several hundred years of elitist domination.
Beware “ammart”, you are in grave danger of losing everything!
About 1.4 million farmers (and their families) have been distressed, driven to despair, by Thailand’s showpiece Rice Pledge Scheme which had turned into a monumental failure. Three rice farmers were driven to suicide already. The gloom and desperation by the rice farming community must be at near panic … hence the near daily rice farmers block-the-roads protests at several provinces all over Thailand.
This monumental problem is the brain child of Thaksin and gladly embraced by puppet Yingluck. Thaksinomics at its worst: Yingluck gambling with the rice farmers livelihood that by ‘market cornering’ tactic of buying (at ridiculous 25%-30% above market) rice paddy and keeping it in storage, Yingluck/Thaksin could move world rice prices much much higher … and failing and failing monumentally.
“BOT chief urges sale of rice from govt stockpiles to fund payment to farmers” (Bangkok Post today) and take the loss.
But the people had been asking ‘where and how much is the rice” in storage? We are getting very very suspicious that the 20 millions tons of rice may have been pilfered considering the many crooks and rats that Yingluck’s Rice Pledge and stockpile scheme have/had attracted.
The fetor of Yingluck’s Rice Pledge and Stockpile scheme very strongly suffocates not only the rice farmers, but us all.
Well, Vichai, they should get over their search for a hero and realize that ending corruption and getting democracy are hard work and take time and patience. Perhaps it’s because they’ve been fed the fantasy of an all-good hero – you know what I mean – from the day they were born.
So many good points to it but I’ll just comment on one.
Whenever the opponents of the Constitutional amendment which would make it fully elected defend their ideas, they never mention that the idea was to make the senate fully elected. Of course not, that would be embarrassing.They hide this fact by saying vaguely it will erode checks and balances. Some of those evil BBC/CNN reporters should ask Abhisit if he prefers an elected senate or an appointed senate. Great article, Chan.
Let us get a simple perspective of this latest Bangkok ‘fever’.
One time the Bangkok fever was for Mr. Clean, Chamlong Srimuang (the General with the broom, remember?). Another time it was Mr. Can-Do, Thaksin Shinawatra (surprised? from hero to villain eh?)
And Thailand’s latest hero, Bangkok’s current heart-throb iiiis The Kamnan, Suthep Thaugsuban! Thailand’s David against the Goliath-Thaksin Machine.
You get this sense that Thailand’s middle class is hungry for a Hero. And Suthep Thaugsuban is currently their hero.
” … It (the recent amnesty debacle that lit the raging fires of the ‘Uproot’ protests) was not in Thaksin’s interests at all and there was no way he was coming back – as he said many times …” Jim T.
Really Mr. Jim? And have you read the book “Conversations with Thaksin” by Tom Plate? I must assume Jim T. did, because Jim T sounds like another very rabid Thaksin fan. Because in that book, without even reading between the lines, a reader could only get that impression that Thaksin does indeed wants to come home.
But even in the book Thaksin’s “I will return” sizzles with megalomania. Because Thaksin wants to come back, maybe not necessarily as a reborn/redeemed politico, but more like a ‘statesman’ ala Prem. Yes indeed, Thaksin deep in his delusional heart, should be able to come as a member of The Privy Council, directly overseeing The Crown Property assets!
Thus those ‘Uproot’ protesters and many millions of other Thais carry a very deep and certainly well justified distrust of the self-seeking Shinawatras and their 300 or so servants at that Peau Thai Party.
It is NOT cynicism Jim T. but total rejection of the Thaksin/Yingluck brand of very corruptive politics.
Thanks for reminding me, of course you are right.
…and you forgot:
-populist – any government that at least tries to spend a fair share of the national budget on the people who really need it
-vote-buying – every baht of the national budget that is not spend on the middle class in the capital or the military
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Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
http://uglytruththailand.wordpress.com/2014/02/01/suteps-mob-deploy-gunmen-against-people-who-want-to-vote/
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
In reading the excellent post by “Jim,” I believe he predates me here. In the future I’ll ID myself as Jim #2.
Thaksinomics, poverty and inequality
The government’s defaults on payments to farmers amount to 10% of the entire agricultural production for 2013. Farmers in Isaan are worst hit because they only have one crop per year, so for many of them the government has defaulted on their entire annual production. It seems that this default was already well advanced before the protests started.
Are Isaan farmers now regarded expendable collateral damage in Thaksinomics?
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
The ammart is hydra-headed. And this administration is just the latest manifestation. No loss, Jim. Just a slightly uncomfortable transformation, with a few unfortunately lost lives of lost souls along the way. Tomorrow, the current government will (of course) completely slime its way out of any responsibility for its term of criminality and incompetence. They always do. (Yet more proof that academe and analysis just doesn’t cut it in in the big bad real world.)Suthep will of course have worked OT for no good reason. Wrong man for the job. He really should have known better. Well, what do you really expect of the party that burdened Thailand with a populist despot through its own flat-out complacent politics?
Chan’s response is not that impressive really. Just another attempt by an obvious insider to fool the public into accepting far less than a properly-functioning system by piling on the “impossible to ever shift” stuff. Chan has identified some hometruths. But nothing that is really much more honest & incisive than the Vanina letter. Both have a fairly obvious insider agenda. Both seem content to act as apologists for the delusional(but conflicting)aspirations of the various local establishment factions – none of which are ever likely to free any of their cheap labor slaves. Life is far too cushy at the lazy-arse top in this country.
Business will always worry about its long-term prospects in such a sour environment. But business has done a fine job of just sweeping the problem under the carpet for decades. Chan’s response is not going to have any appreciable impact on the various shady dealings of the local succession-hungry factions. His claim, that this is a semi-democracy, rings particularly hollow.
How does the LSE & Chicago man propose to make this (or the next) election work any better than all the other ‘pretend democracy’ elections here since the end of absolute monarchy? Indeed, why isn’t he running for parliament? At a rough guess, it’s because he knows all too well that politics here is so inextricably linked with kleptocracy, nepotism, cross-border illegal trade and a whole host of other criminal stuff. So much so, that he and other like-minded reformers stand zero chance of ever being elected.
Enjoy your vacuous victory, while it lasts!
Thaksinomics, poverty and inequality
And yet, the democrats are too chicken to go to election… someone is lying.. I wonder who?
Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
They sound like a bunch of ‘nervous Nellies’ to me.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Pravit is one of the very few writers from The Nation worth reading.
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
Interesting and incredible smart or stupid “Ammart” – they are fighting for living or dead, but what they are doing seems make themselves sinking
Mapping the result
[…] by the highly respected historian and political commentator on Thai issues, Chris Baker, and republished recently in New Mandala, makes this point. While the map shows solid support for the Democrats (the political party linked […]
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
Thank you very much, Chan, for this concise expose.
I have argued many times, the very same points, but with much less finesse.
Shinawatr has many faults, but the above stated misdeeds, I agree, are misused, and an abuse of institutional powers that would only lead to the erosion of trust that could only be bad for Thailand’s democratic progress in the longer run.
Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
Thaksin’s strategy for Yingluck to call an election (‘Thaksin thinks, Yingluck speaks’) so that a fresh mandate could whitewash his government’s serious failings (and few successes) may well backfire, because his characteristic hubris and greed will blind him to the increasing number of voters intending to abstain or voting ‘No’ tomorrow.
Having said that, Thaksin’s ridiculous and widely disparaged explanation, after promising he would not accept the Prime Ministership if the primary vote for his party DECREASED (in a previous election also boycotted on principle by the Democrat Party) leaves little hope that any ‘wake-up call’ will register with the ‘big boss’.
To explain, Thaksin went on TV nationwide post-election to try and sell the story that, because his party had INCREASED its share of the primary vote (bound to happen because of the boycott) he could remain PM without breaking his pre-election promise.
Of course, in 2010 he went on to surpass that by his one-man veto of an agreement between the Red Shirts and the Democrat Party for elections in six months, which was mainly responsible for the deaths on both sides during the eventual crackdown as well as the delaying of elections for 18 months, not six.
The current caretaker government of Yingluck Shinawatra has already declared that it will consider every vote cast to be a vote of confidence in the government itself. Notwithstanding Thaksin’s track record in co-opting smaller parties to share in the spoils (and avoid punitive measures) it seems unlikely that he will be much bothered however low voter turn-out may be or however high the ‘No’ vote.
Thus it seems likely that it will be up to the judiciary (not the army) to make sense of the election result, which will likely take several months to finalize, leaving Thailand in political limbo for some time to come.
Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
‘Democracy is a device that ensures
we shall be governed no better than
we deserve.’
GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
At long last, a well argued and truthful expose of Thai contemporary socio-political reality.
If the “ammart” do not understand, then blood will flow. This is not about the Shinawatra family. This is about righting the wrongs of several hundred years of elitist domination.
Beware “ammart”, you are in grave danger of losing everything!
Thaksinomics, poverty and inequality
About 1.4 million farmers (and their families) have been distressed, driven to despair, by Thailand’s showpiece Rice Pledge Scheme which had turned into a monumental failure. Three rice farmers were driven to suicide already. The gloom and desperation by the rice farming community must be at near panic … hence the near daily rice farmers block-the-roads protests at several provinces all over Thailand.
This monumental problem is the brain child of Thaksin and gladly embraced by puppet Yingluck. Thaksinomics at its worst: Yingluck gambling with the rice farmers livelihood that by ‘market cornering’ tactic of buying (at ridiculous 25%-30% above market) rice paddy and keeping it in storage, Yingluck/Thaksin could move world rice prices much much higher … and failing and failing monumentally.
“BOT chief urges sale of rice from govt stockpiles to fund payment to farmers” (Bangkok Post today) and take the loss.
But the people had been asking ‘where and how much is the rice” in storage? We are getting very very suspicious that the 20 millions tons of rice may have been pilfered considering the many crooks and rats that Yingluck’s Rice Pledge and stockpile scheme have/had attracted.
The fetor of Yingluck’s Rice Pledge and Stockpile scheme very strongly suffocates not only the rice farmers, but us all.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Well, Vichai, they should get over their search for a hero and realize that ending corruption and getting democracy are hard work and take time and patience. Perhaps it’s because they’ve been fed the fantasy of an all-good hero – you know what I mean – from the day they were born.
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfDtbidjYlM
In the first 10 seconds.. lol
A response to Vanina Sucharitkul
Great dissection of that letter.
So many good points to it but I’ll just comment on one.
Whenever the opponents of the Constitutional amendment which would make it fully elected defend their ideas, they never mention that the idea was to make the senate fully elected. Of course not, that would be embarrassing.They hide this fact by saying vaguely it will erode checks and balances. Some of those evil BBC/CNN reporters should ask Abhisit if he prefers an elected senate or an appointed senate. Great article, Chan.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Let us get a simple perspective of this latest Bangkok ‘fever’.
One time the Bangkok fever was for Mr. Clean, Chamlong Srimuang (the General with the broom, remember?). Another time it was Mr. Can-Do, Thaksin Shinawatra (surprised? from hero to villain eh?)
And Thailand’s latest hero, Bangkok’s current heart-throb iiiis The Kamnan, Suthep Thaugsuban! Thailand’s David against the Goliath-Thaksin Machine.
You get this sense that Thailand’s middle class is hungry for a Hero. And Suthep Thaugsuban is currently their hero.
Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
” … It (the recent amnesty debacle that lit the raging fires of the ‘Uproot’ protests) was not in Thaksin’s interests at all and there was no way he was coming back – as he said many times …” Jim T.
Really Mr. Jim? And have you read the book “Conversations with Thaksin” by Tom Plate? I must assume Jim T. did, because Jim T sounds like another very rabid Thaksin fan. Because in that book, without even reading between the lines, a reader could only get that impression that Thaksin does indeed wants to come home.
But even in the book Thaksin’s “I will return” sizzles with megalomania. Because Thaksin wants to come back, maybe not necessarily as a reborn/redeemed politico, but more like a ‘statesman’ ala Prem. Yes indeed, Thaksin deep in his delusional heart, should be able to come as a member of The Privy Council, directly overseeing The Crown Property assets!
Thus those ‘Uproot’ protesters and many millions of other Thais carry a very deep and certainly well justified distrust of the self-seeking Shinawatras and their 300 or so servants at that Peau Thai Party.
It is NOT cynicism Jim T. but total rejection of the Thaksin/Yingluck brand of very corruptive politics.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Thanks for reminding me, of course you are right.
…and you forgot:
-populist – any government that at least tries to spend a fair share of the national budget on the people who really need it
-vote-buying – every baht of the national budget that is not spend on the middle class in the capital or the military