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How about his for a scenario …
The heir to Thailand’s throne, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, summons Yingluck Shinawatra and Suthep Thaugsuban for a televised royal audience.
Given the gravity of the situation he adopts a stern and disapproving tone. With the two protagonists kneeling before him, he emphasises the dangers of national division and the importance of resolving differences through dialogue and democratic process rather than confrontation on the street.
He urges Suthep to end his protests and firmly demands that the king’s role not be invoked in campaigns against a democratically elected government.
To display his even-handedness he also reprimands Yingluck, encouraging her to deal respectfully with the constitution and avoid unnecessary provocation of opposition forces.
Possibly a defining moment?
Possibly a workable scenario if the Crown Prince had any shred of respect from the nations people. Given he spends very little time in Thailand as it is, this exact scenario may not have the desired impact.
Another possible option would be to have Queen Sirikit, or better still Princess Sirindhorn, fill the role. Given Queen Sirikit’s past comments maybe Princess Sirindhorn is the only person who could successfully facilitate such an event.
Thoughts?
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No way, Rob S. It would be the start of a Civil War.
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Groundhog day, May 1992
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Enough pipe dreams Andrew Walker!
Our Thai PM Yingluck has this pipe dream of getting her fugitive brother Thaksin ‘pardoned’ of all his crimes, even to the extent of tweaking, with the help of 310 Thaksin-servants posing as legislators, the constitution to get that vomit-inducing amnesty that had riled the whole Thai citizenry.
Jeeeeeeez!
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I imagine that if HRH were to arrange a royal pardon for Thaksin and allow his return he would be wildly popular in the countryside.
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HRH is already popular enough in countryside…
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Such an intervention would put Thailand’s “royalists” in a hot seat.
Their (alleged) allegiance is entirely personal and does not extend to the institution… in fact, many of the “royalist” leaders are actively working to undermine the heir presumptive.
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This is a sign that we are in a transition period like what Surachai Sae Dan says.
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To take this scenario further we’d have Suthep getting roundly chastised while Yingluck gets a gentle slap on the wrist? All hell would break loose. But could it be that Suthep’s group have actually figured this into their calculations, having already outmaneuvered Thaksin by counting on his vanity? Well, we’re still at the ‘protest’ stage, not the ‘confrontation’ stage.
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He already tried a gentler version of this… nobody listened to him:
http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/home/detail/politics/politics/20131124/545372/%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%A1%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%94%E0%B9%87%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%AF%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%B1%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%87%E0%B9%83%E0%B8%AB%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%94%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%B2.html
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Dr. H (comment 3)
Groundhog day? Unfortunately a lot of blood had been spilt by the time the ‘chastisement’ was broadcast. For people’s sake, I hope there will not a ‘groundhog day.
Also, if this was to happen, wouldn’t there have had to have been some kind of admission?
An admission that ‘your man’ will step up in the future. After reading Mr. A MacG-M’s recent article, I was under the impression that an audience, with the characters in the initial posting, would not be possible.
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An extraordinary side-effect of the establishment’s kamikaze tactics since 2006 is that the prince is now less hated in Thailand than at any time previously in his whole adult life.
My interpretation of the political crisis, based on hundreds of interviews with sources, is that at the elite level it is an old-style succession struggle, with the establishment desperate to stop Vajiralongkorn becoming Rama X at almost any cost. Anyone interested to know details of the analysis can read it here.
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One day, said King Farouk of Egypt, there will be five kings left in the world: the four kings in the deck of cards — and the king of England.
Long live the king!
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And because the King and Queen of England came to realize that they were not god.
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Who is this imaginary king of England?
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How the fact that Suthep’s son Ekanat Phrompan is also Niphon Phrompan’s nephew come into play with this?
Ekanat is one of the 9 Dem. MPs who resign to become mob leaders and he plays the spokeperson role especially to the foreign media (he has an Oxford pedigree)
Niphon is of course the strongest candidate for head of privy councillor for Rama X, replacing Prem, if Vajiralongkorn were to become one, that is.
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Not likely to happen. There are huge signals. A lot of Queen’s courtiers are publicly supporting the rally! The tone of the rally support is even shown in the Queen sponsored Khon performance. Dream on…
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Which Khon performance you mentioning?
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Plausible scenario. One of the ways for the institution to stays very much involved in Thai society. Let the Thais show the world how harmonious we are.
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Silly idea. The Crown Prince is thought to owe money to the Great Demon, who got him out of scraps. He’s not really respected. And your idea of what he’d say to each is so ‘falang’. Do you even live in T? Or are you totally in Aust….. Silly idea… Prathep perhaps … she would have immediate respect from many directions.. Parachinee will not do anything without HM The King.. You got to know T. They will work it out.
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It is as I thought. You guys are Aussies. You got to live in the country and be absorbed by it somehow to ever have any chance of catching the nuances of the culture. Not all cultures work like white anglo-saxon ones…. I cringe to think what you are teaching about the rest of SEA. Typical ‘falang-thinking’ I’ve got to say.
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Jim, I think the scenario was a joke! Geddit?
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Dear Mr Walker
I love the way you imagine about political scenario in Thailand now, of cause,if your assumtion based on evidence that you’ve been wathcing on Thai media , I completely agree with you that they’re going to do what you metioned earlier.
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Andrew’s idea is not as fanciful as Vichai N, and others here, are saying. HRH The Crown Prince has ALREADY acted as wise counsel, urging talks. Other highly respectable figures – eg. former PM Anand are urging the same. But such talks would need Bumiphol’s blessing to suceed. Who knows ? – HMK may yet say “well done son”. I hope so. Here’s Anand’s perspective : http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Anand-calls-for-mutual-retreat-peace-talks-30220849.html
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If the prince is smart he should has this move – summons Yingluck and Suthep for a televised royal audience like his father did 21 years ago, then he will gain a big benefit for his future, especially he will gain a lot of supports from the red shirts, Thaksin’s supporters (the group that supports Thaksin).
Hope things will not turn out to be another war – a war in the family one side is supported by yellow and the other is red.
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I think the military tried this idea last night, forcing two sides to meet and then let the military take credit for it . . . didn’t work out as planned . . .
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Suthep-says-he-met-Yingluck-chiefs-of-three-armed–30221120.html
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I wonder if this will have some bearing on the situation: http://notthenation.com/2013/12/thongdaeng-abdicates-to-foo-foo/
A homage to #thaistory?
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