[…] also how Bangkok has had more rain this year. On this latter topic, New Mandala has had three posts here, here, and here. BP has been looking to blog on this, but initially hand collating the data was […]
you have very interested Lao History. Lao them self are lack off about their Lao history. PLease send me more if you have any writing about the correct Lao history. Thank,
This is my last post directed at you, because I myself have committed the cardinal sin of straying this thread away from the real issue at hand and of the Vodcast – the King.
I never denounced you as a “sexpat”. Kowtower, yes, but I never mentioned any “sexpat” activity. Keep your boorish cliches to yourself.
I have no moral superiority and my abuse is neither “idle” nor unfitting. “point scoring”? We – as in the rest of the people posting after such a sharp vodcast – were attempting to have a serious discussion on the King/monarchy and its place in contemporary Thailand. You seem to miss that. Refer to my previous posts
You say middle age clouded your perspective, on – let’s say – issues regarding the King. How old am I? Seven?
I wish I had never engaged in this discussion with you, because I have clouded an issue/thread that needs serious debate/discussion.
Oh, and don’t hide behind your Billy Budd. There is no need. Hell, don’t you know when you tow the party line you are rewarded?
Whether we like it or not, Thailand will continue to suffer ‘yearly flooding’, and in some years ‘big’ or ‘biblical’ floods. Neither gods or politicians or Thaksin, despite Nganadeeleg’s “surprise”, will be able to prevent Thailand’s yearly deluge.
Yingluck, a political novice , is however trying her damnest, despite her obvious ineptitude, to prevent the deluge from touching ‘inner Bangkok’.
The Thai people will probably take note of the ‘ineptitude’ rather than the ‘sincerity’ of Yinluck’s bungling management of the ongoing deluge.
[…] again, Nick Nostitz’s masterclass images, published as usually in New Mandala leaves me in awe, both for their technical virtuosity and eerie calm that has followed the […]
Another very odd circumstance to me is that out of an Army of 300,000 plus, only 20 to 40,000 soldiers were mobilized to do flood work.
Reports seem to suggest 40,000 deployed in Bangkok. That said, the definition of what’s actually “Bangkok” seems to vary all according to the source and context. And, as usual, much of what the floods have done elsewhere in the country (e.g. the north-east) is absent from the BKK-centric reports – along with details of military involvement.
Where are the helicopters?
Well, The Nation reported on October 18 (prepare to control jaw-dropping):
The [Royal Thai] Air Force spokesman said the flooding had gone past the point of using helicopters in relief operations.
Remaining flood victims in remote areas did not want to be evacuated and relief supplies could be distributed by boats or vehicles, he said, noting that too many helicopters flying in a limited airspace over the flood waters could be a risk to air traffic.
The last thing anyone needs right now is another armchair (barstool?) hydrologist – particularly one commenting with agenda-driven 20/20 hindsight. There are plenty to be found commenting on flood-related articles at Bangkok Post and online elsewhere (ThaiVisa’s brigade of shoot-from-the-hip “experts” being a conspicuous example). However, there are some seriously puzzling points that do need to be explored – e.g. on 13 October, Bangkok Post carried a report which included the following:
“If the water keeps rising, I am not sure if it can prevent flooding. If not, we cannot save Don Muang,” MR Sukhumbhand said.
“All zones in Bangkok stand an equal chance of being flooded because we can’t predict the water flow.”
Yet, it’s clear from looking through various Thai water management websites that there is in fact a huge amount of water depth and flow-rate data available to the various authorities – particularly to the Royal Irrigation Dept and to the BMA. This comes from meters installed at key points around the country and the data are transmitted in real time. Added to that monitoring system are detailed localised rainfall data from the Meteorological Dept; in broad terms, X amount of rainfall over Y area for Z period allows fairly accurate prediction of changing water levels in the rivers and canals as they receive the runoff.
Of course, having a huge volume of data doesn’t in itself equip the relevant authorities to reach appropriate conclusions – it has to be analysed and modeled. Good then that this need was recognised and acted upon many years ago – as described here (my emphasis throughout):
Flood Forecasting on the Lower Chao Praya River
Bangkok, Thailand, April 28, 2004
There is an impression that the development of an operational Flood Forecasting System is a massive task, inevitably requiring extensive and expensive consultancy and a system based on bespoke software and international bank support. The rapid and inexpensive development of an operational Flood Forecasting System for Thailand’s Lower Chao Praya River, built around Wallingford Software’s InfoWorks and FloodWorks suites, shows that a scaled down approach can deliver excellent results within more practical timescales and budgets.
In the past Bangkok, a major city of 12 million population, has regularly experienced a flood season during the monsoon from mid-September to the end of October each year. The cause is the Chao Praya River, which flows for 370 miles (600km) from the north of Thailand to Bangkok, fed by the Nam and Ping rivers. Flowing through the center of Bangkok shortly before reaching the Gulf of Thailand, the lower reaches of the river provide an essential highway for the transport of people and cargo. The huge river basin takes more than a month to flow from source to the Gulf, has a catchment of 62,000 square miles (16 million hectares), and an average annual rainfall across the catchment of some 50 inches (1270 mm), with a high proportion falling in the monsoon season. The result is flow discharges than can exceed 6500 cubic yards (5,000 cubic meters) per second.
Flood forecasts had previously relied on engineers making hand calculations of the flood threat based on daily readings of river levels. In 1998 plans began to build a system to address this threat more formally, and the Hydrodynamic Flow Measurement Project was conceived.
The initiative came from the Thai Royal Irrigation Department, and the project was jointly funded by the RID, the Office of the Royal Development Projects Board and the National Research Fund. The project team comprised AMR Asia Co Ltd as main contractor and supplier of telemetry / SCADA equipment, Water Development Consultants Ltd (WDC), a local company providing consultants, modelers, and flood forecasting experts, and Wallingford Software. The selection of Wallingford in preference to the competitive offerings was based on its high functionality, powerful existing links between the river modeling and flood forecasting modules, affordable price, and the local language capability of the software.
The project began in 2001, with the resultant system to be built around two central off-the-shelf software packages. InfoWorks RS accurately simulates river flow and its behavior in its channel and flood plain under different weather assumptions. FloodWorks provides real-time operational support in the control room, running on dedicated hardware. It estimates detailed flood risks, forecasts flood levels, and the handles the administration details of flood warnings, with particular emphasis on urban flooding, all within the very tight timescales required of a flood control room in action.
The active forecast area of the system is from Ayutthaya, some 60 miles northeast of Bangkok, through Bangkok to the mouth of the Chao Praya River and the Gulf of Thailand. There was already a network of 25 telemetry sites monitoring water levels and rainfall, and the new project required only 8 further sites to give the coverage needed. In addition, new communications links were established to existing Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and Public Works Dept telemetry systems along the river.
The offices of the RID in Samsen, Bangkok were selected for the master station of the new flood control system. The central system was installed here – a dedicated server and the FloodWorks and InfoWorks RS software. The client interface – FloodWorks Event Manager – was installed in this control room (2 copies) and also the two additional offices of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and the Office of the Royal Development Projects Board (Kings Office).
The project went live in 2003 on time and on budget, and the first monsoon period past with no major flooding. Clearly this was not as a result of the system – the system is to manage floods, and cannot completely prevent them in a very wet year – but the RID is reassured that, when floods come, as they will, the very best flood management and flood warning system is in place to minimize the impact.
An earlier (February 2004) item emphasises the benefits described in that last paragraph:
“InfoWorks RS and FloodWorks have alleviated concerns about the risk of flooding by improving the accuracy of flood forecasting very considerably. Bangkok now benefits from 7-day predictions of water levels and flows in the lower Chao Praya River compared with or two days previously. It is a tremendous improvement that directly benefits the residents and businesses of Bangkok.”
Allowing that the above are from a commercial (but very experienced) company blowing its own trumpet, it still leaves the question of just how responsible authorities (the BMA in particular) can credibly claim “we don’t know”…..
…..
Note: too long to reproduce their content here but I recommend NM readers to also check out the following links:
I live in BKK, been to that mall.
As said, construction seems to be booming, most of it expensive condos.
Who can afford to live in them, I can’t.
Bubble waiting to burst?
Thanks Nick, you always have a way of capturing life with a camera, luckily, this time it is peaceful. That first photo kinda says it all, love the bike on the balcony, is that your place?
I can sympathize with those people. Here in Chiang Dao Chiang Mai we were hit by a flash flood on 29 Sep, but the floodwater here only took about 2 hours to drain out ,except for my below-ground level first floor, where the floor was pushed up and cracked, took a couple of weeks to get it pumped out as the water from groundwater saturation kept coming in, had to move my bedroom upstairs and the swamped A/C doesn’t work anymore
They don’t release significant water from dams and must maintain its level because there was flood since May(release water from dams will make situation worse) and nobody know 5 storms will come. I may decide to maintain water level too if I were them. Flood came too fast this year.
Even Sirikit dam was fulled before Yingluck had her authority.
Unfortunate for Yingluck and Thailand in my opinion.
Re: “If forest cover is about 60 %, it is thanks to the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) generous definition of a ‘forest’– land with at least 10 % of tree crown cover and which can include forestry-type plantations such as rubber wood.”
This is literally true; forests are cut down and replaced with rubber plantations, but accounted for as “forest”, with governments making proclamations of increasing “forest cover” when the reality is the obliteration of the last forests, the disappearance of the last wild tigers, elephants, and so on. Indeed, this is the ecological equivalent of accounting for a deficit as a surplus; even from a purely economic perspective, it is “creative accounting” that should be banned. This is a huge issue for the entire continent of Southeast Asia, and it is hard to blame local governments for participating in the practice when international agencies (U.N. and otherwise) regard it as “standard practice”, and actually bankroll projects accordingly.
I wrote about these issues in Laos (with comparative reference to Thailand) years ago:
Dundun, 3
The (Thai) is in (brackets) because I had never heard the expression in (English ) before (and no other (English) speaking person I know has either.)
Other (Thai) friends I have smile at my question but politely, with a self effacing smile, tactfully change the subject. Funny that!
As I have a (Thai) family to support and do not want (ISOC) knocking on my door, so I try (like most thais), (and not always successfully) to choose my comments wisely and keep my anonymity.
I also try to find the good in the dramatis personae whilst granting the evil that exists. (Hence the nom de plume).
All the players are human and ironically all believe they are doing their duty as they see it. This is the human condition. (I’ve been reading a lot of Richard Dawkins lately)
As a longtime expat (or kowtowing sexpat – as it seems you’d like to categorise me) my posted reflections are the result of reading, discussion and attempts to understand and respect the culture that surrounds me.
Anyhow I will take no offence from your point scoring/idle abuse. I do try to walk a mile in another mans shoes to try to understand him.
Yours however are too small even for me.
I will continue to post contrary comments as long as the “moderators” permit and rant along with the vox populi on other days.
I endorse your right to bang your drum as you see fit and envy your moral superiority and clarity of perspective. I lost mine with advancing middle age.
(Note to moderator: apologies for the long-winded reply but I saw no nothing in post number 33 other than a personal attack. Please feel free to delete if this post adds nothing to the debate!)
The Samut Prakan (immediately southeast of Bangkok) Governor says his local government is ready, able and willing to handle huge amounts of water from Bangkok onwards to the sea………but is surprised and puzzled that there is no water coming from the flood gates on the southern side of Bangkok…he says without allowing the water thru the Bangklok canals and floodgates, there is no solution to getting rid of the excess water backed up to the north of Bangkok…..
A committee tasked with diverting water to the sea has asked the government to open watergates to drain water from the upper area of Bangkok to the sea via Samut Prakan province’s canals.
“All canals in Samut Prakan have been ready to receive flood water drainage from Bangkok for almost three weeks – but now there is little volume of water being discharged from Bangkok’s watergates,” committee chairman Uthen Chartpinyo said during a tour with media to inspect the canal levels and pump stations in the province.
Samut Prakan, the last area before flood water flows to the sea, has nine pump stations and could drain about 40 million cubic metres per day of water into the Gulf of Thailand. There are 99 pump machines to drain the water but six do not function, as local authorities have not maintained them.
Flood water should be drained from Nong Chok, San Sab, Prawet, Lat Krabang, Jor Ra Keh Yai, Sam Rong Water, and Suvarnabhumi watergates. “We are waiting for Bangkok to open its gates,” he said.
“We need to drain water via Bangkok to help people living in upper areas such as Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani who have been living with floods for a month, but the most important thing is we have to control the level of water in the canals,” he added.
The level in Samut Prakan province’s canals is 2043 centimetres below normal as the local administration has drained a lot of water to the sea already.
However, Samut Prakan Governor Cherdsak Choosri accepted that some areas in the province such as Bang Bo could still be at risk from flooding should the canals overflow.
“We are preparing to evacuate 2,000 people from this area,” he said.
some thoughts and links on the politics swirling around the Thailand flooding situation as well as the huge economic impact which will also be a large political factor over the coming months…………
================
It seems to me that the vast amount of water coming from the north got partially blocked by the Bangkok Governor (an actual royal family member) refusing to allow 4 or 5 Bangkok canals to be used to drain water to the south. Bangkok became a kind of dam making it impossible for the water to get to the sea as fast as it needed to.
More water was coming than was going and it just rose higher and higher at all those industrial estates on the northern side of BKK. Apparently they account for 1/3 of the entire world’s hard drive capacity as well as a lot of very modern Japanese electronics and vehicle factories, all of which undoubtedly have a huge amount of electrical and computer equipment which will now be totally ruined by the water.
Almost 2 million jobs are on those industrial estates….that’s a lot of payroll and jobs…if each job represents the livelihood of a family of 4, it means 8 million people live off those factories. And either the Japanese or someone else will have to invest the billions necessary to replace all the ruined assembly line equipment and also the ruined partially completed inventory.
Apparently the BKK governor refused to follow the direct orders of the Yingluck government to open the gates to the canals, telling her he answered to the residents of BKK, not to her…..obviously he will be re-elected if BKK is spared as the voters to the north don’t vote in BKK and the BKK voters will be very grateful.
Once Yingluck declared the “State of Emergency” (some other phrasing/title I believe), it gave her the authority to order the Governor of BKK to open the gates. If he were to refuse, she could remove him from his position. So last night they started to open the BKK canal gates on the northern side of the city and they have to now be sure to exactly balance the water coming in to the water going out, otherwise there will be flooding in Central BKK.
Another very odd circumstance to me is that out of an Army of 300,000 plus, only 20 to 40,000 soldiers were mobilized to do flood work. What are all the other soldiers doing? There’s no imminent danger from Burma, Laos or Cambodia. Are they all providing security for BKK condos and shopping centers and military owned niteclubs? Where are all the motorized watercraft the military has? Why aren’t they out in the flooded areas? Where are the helicopters? Why aren’t there 200,000 soldiers helping? Where is the Thai Navy and their small boats?
I think the answer has to be that the military does not see itself as taking orders from the Yingluck government. The voters who work on the industrial estates are all Pheu Thai voters and if the Yingluck government is falling behind and failing, it is all good for General Payruth and the royalist crew.
I know for a fact that the U.S. has offered to deploy a lot of helicopters on 24 hour notice to help in the flooded areas. The largest aircraft carrier in the world has been brought up near Thailand for this sole purpose. These are the same crews that saved Aceh in Indonesia after the tsunami and they know how to do it. But they are being delayed by some opaque behaviour by the Thai military.
Why? What possible reason can they have to not inject 50 to 100 state of the art, well-maintained and expertly piloted helicopters into the flood areas? In the Katerina aftermath, the hundreds of helicopters were the only thing that finally turned the tide.
In theory, under the “State of Emergency” Yingluck can give orders to the Army at this point….but I doubt if the Army will actually follow her orders despite the State of Emergency….
Below are several articles covering various economic and political aspects of the flooding situation…..
=================
1. Detailed article about the 9 large industrial estates north of Bangkok that have been flooded and detail about economic impact….
Industrial sentiment plunges in September
Published BKK Post: 22/10/2011 at 12:00 AM
Industrial sentiment hit a 26-month low in September as businesses are concerned the government’s perceived slow response to the flood crisis will affect the country’s GDP.
Payungsak Chartsutthipol, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), yesterday warned sentiment would drop further this month given the extensive damage suffered by the sector.
“If the situation lingers, then GDP will be hit even harder, as the industrial sector directly correlates with employment,” he said, adding that damage to the sector was estimated at 100 billion baht so far.
The FTI said each month the crisis lasts will cost the sector another 100 billion baht, and if it lingers to year-end, then GDP growth would miss the target of 3.5% to 4.5%.
The Thai Industries Sentiment Index fell to 90.7 points in September from 102.5 in August due to the flooding in the North that resulted in reduced sales and production.
Mr Payungsak urged the government to loosen regulations for businesses after the floodwater recedes so procedures that usually take two or three months can be done immediately.
Meanwhile, Tiziana Bonapace, head of ICT and disaster risk reduction at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, urged the Thai government to protect inner Bangkok.
“If inner Bangkok is inundated, Thailand might take longer to recover,” he said.
Mr Bonapace also said social media and mobile devices were important channels for rapid dissemination of information.
“It is crucial for the central authorities to set up a team to communicate with online channels and learn from actual experience,” he said. “The Japanese government used social media to communicate with the public and respond quickly to online rumours in the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami.”
Mr Bonapace said that apart from upgrading water management and control systems, Thailand needs a disaster management plan in the long term that includes national security and evacuation measures.
High-risk areas are especially in need of an all-inclusive safety plan for schools, hospitals, offices and homes, he said.
Seven industrial estates in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani including Bang Kadi, the latest to be hit, have been damaged, with five areas on red alert – Bang Chan and Lat Krabang in Bangkok, Bang Phli and Bangpoo in Samut Prakan and Kaeng Khoi in Saraburi.
Industry Minister Wannarat Channukul urged the Lat Krabang Industrial Estate to be prepared for flooding in the next couple of days, as water will arrive early next week.
“We need to protect our last bastion as best we can,” he said, adding the estate was increasing its earthen dykes to 3.5 metres above sea level, up from 2.1 metres.
====================
2. Article about only 1 of the 9 or 10 large industrial parks that got flooded north of BKK…………
The flood that has ravaged Bangkadi industrial park in Pathum Thani’s Muang district is estimated to have caused at least 30 billion baht in damage.
Sony under water – Much of the Sony facility in Bangkadi Industrial Estate in Pathum Thani’s Muang district lies submerged. The flood waters are about 3 metres high. PATTARACHAI PREECHAPANICH
Bangkadi, home to mostly electronics and electrical appliance manufacturers, is the seventh industrial site to have succumbed to the surging waters.
It houses 47 factories including those of Toshiba and Sony.
“The initial damage is estimated at 30 billion baht. It will take about a month for the floodwaters to recede and then at least three months to rehabilitate the park,” said Thawatchai Ung-ampornpilai, the mayor of Bangkadi municipality.
Mr Thawatchai said the floodwaters are almost 4 metres deep in certain parts of the site, making it impassible to all vehicles.
The industrial park had tried to hold back the water for days but the efforts failed on Thursday night when a floodwall was breached after a massive volume of water overflowed from the Prapa canal.
“The water level in the Prapa canal rose very high and it overflowed the dyke. After that the dyke broke.
“We tried to fix it but it was just impossible,” said the mayor, who was about to leave the site when the breach occurred.
“As I sped off I saw the flood bring down pylons. Luckily no one was injured,” he said. It was reported that a large number of staff were trapped inside when the flood gushed in.
About 500 personnel from the army, navy and border patrol police as well as local authorities were yesterday mobilised to evacuate the remaining people from the industrial park.
The evacuation was completed yesterday evening.
“The floodwater came in so fast that we didn’t have time to run and it was incredibly high,” said a worker who was with the last batch of people to be evacuated.
After the evacuation, soldiers will set up a make-shift unit there to guard the premises.
Mr Thawatchai said authorities were drafting a plan for how to salvage the industrial park.
Under the initial plan, the floodwater would be diverted to Khlong Bang Ngiew, to Khlong Chiang Rak and then to the Chao Phraya River.
In Pathum Thani’s Thanyaburi district, chaos descended on a community at Rangsit market which was under water one metre deep.
While people were evacuating, a group of people with spades tried to break the earthen dyke in the hope that it would reduce the water level in the community.
On the outbound lane of Phahon Yothin road heading to the North, police set up roadblocks to prevent small vehicles from passing through due to the high level of the floodwaters.
Many motorists decided to park their vehicles on the flyover across the Rangsit canal and on the elevated tollway.
=============
3. Article about Burmese factory workers:
PM: Floods arriving to Bangkok, to divert water into sea
р╕зр╕▒р╕Щр╣Ар╕кр╕▓р╕гр╣М р╕Чр╕╡р╣И 22 р╕Х.р╕Д. 2554
BANGKOK, Oct 22 — Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Saturday said more floodwater from the northern region was arriving to Bangkok and that the water management plan was important to address the flow of floodwater to minimize impact on public.
Hosting her weekly TV programme “Yingluck Government Meets the People” on National Broadcasting Television (NBT) or Channel 11 and simulcast on Radio Thailand, the premier said extra protection would be given to historical sites, palaces, hospitals, business areas, main transportation routes, airports, MRT stations, and public utilities services.
She said the nature of water was to flow from higher to lower ground, but containing water would make the water uncontrollable, as dykes could be destroyed by the force of water.
The flood prevention wall could only slow the water, she said, but could not permanently stop the flow.
Ms Yingluck said that the government was forced to implement Article 31 of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act B.E. 2550 because there was a need to jointly manage water effectively at the national and local levels in order to drain floodwater to the sea as quickly as possible and ease difficulties.
The government and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) would have to cooperate in opening the water sluice gates, she said.
As precautionary measures, Ms Yingluck said she recommended the public monitor information, move their valuable items and belongings to higher ground at least one metre high, and separate electricity system in their homes between the ground floor and the second floor.
During the next round of high tide during Oct 28-30, she said, the Royal Irrigation Department would be responsible for adjusting the drainage and controlling the water sluice gates.
She said the government has prepared 1,743 shelters for flood victims at provinces affected by the flood which could serve some 800,000 people.
There were now 113,369 people staying at the shelters, she said.
As for the rehabilitation plan, she said the government has prepared measures to help flood victims, including workers and business operators both major and minor.
The Prime Minister urged the public not to be panic and asked for cooperation from all relevant agencies to fight the problem and to have patience in overcoming the problems together. (MCOT online news)
Surely it would be possible to set up a model based on (1) actual rainfall statistics throughout the country, (2) river and reservoir water levels and (3) weather forecasts, which could reasonably determine and predict the likelihood of serious flooding and so enable appropriate action to be taken well in advance? Maybe such a model already exists, but if so nobody seems to have paid any heed to it. What seems clear now is that the potential determinants were all in place well before anybody began to raise any serious alarms (and, incidentally, well before the present government came into office)
Jit, thanks. Can you provide some links to the predictions of (extra-)heavy rainfall from the beginning of the year. They would be useful for an understanding of how this has been managed. AW
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Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
[…] also how Bangkok has had more rain this year. On this latter topic, New Mandala has had three posts here, here, and here. BP has been looking to blog on this, but initially hand collating the data was […]
Flood images from Nick Nostitz
Good job Nick
Starting points: Laos in 1975
you have very interested Lao History. Lao them self are lack off about their Lao history. PLease send me more if you have any writing about the correct Lao history. Thank,
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Billy Budd:
This is my last post directed at you, because I myself have committed the cardinal sin of straying this thread away from the real issue at hand and of the Vodcast – the King.
I never denounced you as a “sexpat”. Kowtower, yes, but I never mentioned any “sexpat” activity. Keep your boorish cliches to yourself.
I have no moral superiority and my abuse is neither “idle” nor unfitting. “point scoring”? We – as in the rest of the people posting after such a sharp vodcast – were attempting to have a serious discussion on the King/monarchy and its place in contemporary Thailand. You seem to miss that. Refer to my previous posts
You say middle age clouded your perspective, on – let’s say – issues regarding the King. How old am I? Seven?
I wish I had never engaged in this discussion with you, because I have clouded an issue/thread that needs serious debate/discussion.
Oh, and don’t hide behind your Billy Budd. There is no need. Hell, don’t you know when you tow the party line you are rewarded?
Moderators, delete me at will.
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
Whether we like it or not, Thailand will continue to suffer ‘yearly flooding’, and in some years ‘big’ or ‘biblical’ floods. Neither gods or politicians or Thaksin, despite Nganadeeleg’s “surprise”, will be able to prevent Thailand’s yearly deluge.
Yingluck, a political novice , is however trying her damnest, despite her obvious ineptitude, to prevent the deluge from touching ‘inner Bangkok’.
The Thai people will probably take note of the ‘ineptitude’ rather than the ‘sincerity’ of Yinluck’s bungling management of the ongoing deluge.
Starting points: Laos in 1975
1975 seems rather too obvious. Why not 1962?
Flood images from Nick Nostitz
[…] again, Nick Nostitz’s masterclass images, published as usually in New Mandala leaves me in awe, both for their technical virtuosity and eerie calm that has followed the […]
More on Thailand’s rainfall
Arthur (c5):
Another very odd circumstance to me is that out of an Army of 300,000 plus, only 20 to 40,000 soldiers were mobilized to do flood work.
Reports seem to suggest 40,000 deployed in Bangkok. That said, the definition of what’s actually “Bangkok” seems to vary all according to the source and context. And, as usual, much of what the floods have done elsewhere in the country (e.g. the north-east) is absent from the BKK-centric reports – along with details of military involvement.
Where are the helicopters?
Well, The Nation reported on October 18 (prepare to control jaw-dropping):
The [Royal Thai] Air Force spokesman said the flooding had gone past the point of using helicopters in relief operations.
Remaining flood victims in remote areas did not want to be evacuated and relief supplies could be distributed by boats or vehicles, he said, noting that too many helicopters flying in a limited airspace over the flood waters could be a risk to air traffic.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Air-Force-ready-to-move-planes-from-Don-Mueang-30167896.html
More on Thailand’s rainfall
The last thing anyone needs right now is another armchair (barstool?) hydrologist – particularly one commenting with agenda-driven 20/20 hindsight. There are plenty to be found commenting on flood-related articles at Bangkok Post and online elsewhere (ThaiVisa’s brigade of shoot-from-the-hip “experts” being a conspicuous example). However, there are some seriously puzzling points that do need to be explored – e.g. on 13 October, Bangkok Post carried a report which included the following:
“If the water keeps rising, I am not sure if it can prevent flooding. If not, we cannot save Don Muang,” MR Sukhumbhand said.
“All zones in Bangkok stand an equal chance of being flooded because we can’t predict the water flow.”
[ http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/261044/evacuation-plan-readied ]
Yet, it’s clear from looking through various Thai water management websites that there is in fact a huge amount of water depth and flow-rate data available to the various authorities – particularly to the Royal Irrigation Dept and to the BMA. This comes from meters installed at key points around the country and the data are transmitted in real time. Added to that monitoring system are detailed localised rainfall data from the Meteorological Dept; in broad terms, X amount of rainfall over Y area for Z period allows fairly accurate prediction of changing water levels in the rivers and canals as they receive the runoff.
Of course, having a huge volume of data doesn’t in itself equip the relevant authorities to reach appropriate conclusions – it has to be analysed and modeled. Good then that this need was recognised and acted upon many years ago – as described here (my emphasis throughout):
Flood Forecasting on the Lower Chao Praya River
Bangkok, Thailand, April 28, 2004
There is an impression that the development of an operational Flood Forecasting System is a massive task, inevitably requiring extensive and expensive consultancy and a system based on bespoke software and international bank support. The rapid and inexpensive development of an operational Flood Forecasting System for Thailand’s Lower Chao Praya River, built around Wallingford Software’s InfoWorks and FloodWorks suites, shows that a scaled down approach can deliver excellent results within more practical timescales and budgets.
In the past Bangkok, a major city of 12 million population, has regularly experienced a flood season during the monsoon from mid-September to the end of October each year. The cause is the Chao Praya River, which flows for 370 miles (600km) from the north of Thailand to Bangkok, fed by the Nam and Ping rivers. Flowing through the center of Bangkok shortly before reaching the Gulf of Thailand, the lower reaches of the river provide an essential highway for the transport of people and cargo. The huge river basin takes more than a month to flow from source to the Gulf, has a catchment of 62,000 square miles (16 million hectares), and an average annual rainfall across the catchment of some 50 inches (1270 mm), with a high proportion falling in the monsoon season. The result is flow discharges than can exceed 6500 cubic yards (5,000 cubic meters) per second.
Flood forecasts had previously relied on engineers making hand calculations of the flood threat based on daily readings of river levels. In 1998 plans began to build a system to address this threat more formally, and the Hydrodynamic Flow Measurement Project was conceived.
The initiative came from the Thai Royal Irrigation Department, and the project was jointly funded by the RID, the Office of the Royal Development Projects Board and the National Research Fund. The project team comprised AMR Asia Co Ltd as main contractor and supplier of telemetry / SCADA equipment, Water Development Consultants Ltd (WDC), a local company providing consultants, modelers, and flood forecasting experts, and Wallingford Software. The selection of Wallingford in preference to the competitive offerings was based on its high functionality, powerful existing links between the river modeling and flood forecasting modules, affordable price, and the local language capability of the software.
The project began in 2001, with the resultant system to be built around two central off-the-shelf software packages. InfoWorks RS accurately simulates river flow and its behavior in its channel and flood plain under different weather assumptions. FloodWorks provides real-time operational support in the control room, running on dedicated hardware. It estimates detailed flood risks, forecasts flood levels, and the handles the administration details of flood warnings, with particular emphasis on urban flooding, all within the very tight timescales required of a flood control room in action.
The active forecast area of the system is from Ayutthaya, some 60 miles northeast of Bangkok, through Bangkok to the mouth of the Chao Praya River and the Gulf of Thailand. There was already a network of 25 telemetry sites monitoring water levels and rainfall, and the new project required only 8 further sites to give the coverage needed. In addition, new communications links were established to existing Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and Public Works Dept telemetry systems along the river.
The offices of the RID in Samsen, Bangkok were selected for the master station of the new flood control system. The central system was installed here – a dedicated server and the FloodWorks and InfoWorks RS software. The client interface – FloodWorks Event Manager – was installed in this control room (2 copies) and also the two additional offices of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and the Office of the Royal Development Projects Board (Kings Office).
The project went live in 2003 on time and on budget, and the first monsoon period past with no major flooding. Clearly this was not as a result of the system – the system is to manage floods, and cannot completely prevent them in a very wet year – but the RID is reassured that, when floods come, as they will, the very best flood management and flood warning system is in place to minimize the impact.
[ http://www.innovyze.com/news/fullarticle.aspx?id=231 ]
An earlier (February 2004) item emphasises the benefits described in that last paragraph:
“InfoWorks RS and FloodWorks have alleviated concerns about the risk of flooding by improving the accuracy of flood forecasting very considerably. Bangkok now benefits from 7-day predictions of water levels and flows in the lower Chao Praya River compared with or two days previously. It is a tremendous improvement that directly benefits the residents and businesses of Bangkok.”
[ http://www.innovyze.com/news/fullarticle.aspx?id=212 ]
Allowing that the above are from a commercial (but very experienced) company blowing its own trumpet, it still leaves the question of just how responsible authorities (the BMA in particular) can credibly claim “we don’t know”…..
…..
Note: too long to reproduce their content here but I recommend NM readers to also check out the following links:
1. http://www.iranrivers.ir/Upload/PaperFile/RiverManage/p1084.pdf
2. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=70&ved=0CEsQFjAJODw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unescap.org%2Fidd%2Fevents%2F2011-Pakistan-Flood-Islamabad%2F11-Chaowalit-Silapathong-EO-Satellite-Data.pdf&ei=2FOeTrfUJYGLiALX1NyiAQ&usg=AFQjCNGtpazel4AuspCxALIeIJGEo0UeTw
3. http://web.rid.go.th/ffd/papers/Paper-Session%201/p1-04%20Flood%20Mitigation%20Master%20Plan.pdf
Glittering amidst the crisis
I live in BKK, been to that mall.
As said, construction seems to be booming, most of it expensive condos.
Who can afford to live in them, I can’t.
Bubble waiting to burst?
Flood images from Nick Nostitz
Thanks Nick, you always have a way of capturing life with a camera, luckily, this time it is peaceful. That first photo kinda says it all, love the bike on the balcony, is that your place?
I can sympathize with those people. Here in Chiang Dao Chiang Mai we were hit by a flash flood on 29 Sep, but the floodwater here only took about 2 hours to drain out ,except for my below-ground level first floor, where the floor was pushed up and cracked, took a couple of weeks to get it pumped out as the water from groundwater saturation kept coming in, had to move my bedroom upstairs and the swamped A/C doesn’t work anymore
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
Incredible footage. Thanks for sharing!
More on Thailand’s rainfall
They don’t release significant water from dams and must maintain its level because there was flood since May(release water from dams will make situation worse) and nobody know 5 storms will come. I may decide to maintain water level too if I were them. Flood came too fast this year.
Even Sirikit dam was fulled before Yingluck had her authority.
Unfortunate for Yingluck and Thailand in my opinion.
Malaysia’s environment needs help
Re: “If forest cover is about 60 %, it is thanks to the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) generous definition of a ‘forest’– land with at least 10 % of tree crown cover and which can include forestry-type plantations such as rubber wood.”
This is literally true; forests are cut down and replaced with rubber plantations, but accounted for as “forest”, with governments making proclamations of increasing “forest cover” when the reality is the obliteration of the last forests, the disappearance of the last wild tigers, elephants, and so on. Indeed, this is the ecological equivalent of accounting for a deficit as a surplus; even from a purely economic perspective, it is “creative accounting” that should be banned. This is a huge issue for the entire continent of Southeast Asia, and it is hard to blame local governments for participating in the practice when international agencies (U.N. and otherwise) regard it as “standard practice”, and actually bankroll projects accordingly.
I wrote about these issues in Laos (with comparative reference to Thailand) years ago:
р╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╕Хр╕▒р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Йр╣Гр╕Щр╕ер╕▓р╕зр╣Ар╕Юр╕╖р╣Ир╕н “р╕Вр╕Ир╕▒р╕Фр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕бр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╕Ир╕Щ” ?
http://www.prachatai.com/05web/th/home/page2.php?mod=mod_ptcms&ContentID=9887&SystemModuleKey=HilightNews&System_Session_Language=Thai
The English version of the same article is here:
http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/222
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Dundun, 3
The (Thai) is in (brackets) because I had never heard the expression in (English ) before (and no other (English) speaking person I know has either.)
Other (Thai) friends I have smile at my question but politely, with a self effacing smile, tactfully change the subject. Funny that!
As I have a (Thai) family to support and do not want (ISOC) knocking on my door, so I try (like most thais), (and not always successfully) to choose my comments wisely and keep my anonymity.
I also try to find the good in the dramatis personae whilst granting the evil that exists. (Hence the nom de plume).
All the players are human and ironically all believe they are doing their duty as they see it. This is the human condition. (I’ve been reading a lot of Richard Dawkins lately)
As a longtime expat (or kowtowing sexpat – as it seems you’d like to categorise me) my posted reflections are the result of reading, discussion and attempts to understand and respect the culture that surrounds me.
Anyhow I will take no offence from your point scoring/idle abuse. I do try to walk a mile in another mans shoes to try to understand him.
Yours however are too small even for me.
I will continue to post contrary comments as long as the “moderators” permit and rant along with the vox populi on other days.
I endorse your right to bang your drum as you see fit and envy your moral superiority and clarity of perspective. I lost mine with advancing middle age.
(Note to moderator: apologies for the long-winded reply but I saw no nothing in post number 33 other than a personal attack. Please feel free to delete if this post adds nothing to the debate!)
More on Thailand’s rainfall
The Samut Prakan (immediately southeast of Bangkok) Governor says his local government is ready, able and willing to handle huge amounts of water from Bangkok onwards to the sea………but is surprised and puzzled that there is no water coming from the flood gates on the southern side of Bangkok…he says without allowing the water thru the Bangklok canals and floodgates, there is no solution to getting rid of the excess water backed up to the north of Bangkok…..
http://nationmultimedia.com/national/Samut-Prakan-ready-to-take-Bangkok-overflow-expert-30168283.html
The Nation October 22, 2011 2:03 am
Samut Prakan ready to take Bangkok overflow
A committee tasked with diverting water to the sea has asked the government to open watergates to drain water from the upper area of Bangkok to the sea via Samut Prakan province’s canals.
“All canals in Samut Prakan have been ready to receive flood water drainage from Bangkok for almost three weeks – but now there is little volume of water being discharged from Bangkok’s watergates,” committee chairman Uthen Chartpinyo said during a tour with media to inspect the canal levels and pump stations in the province.
Samut Prakan, the last area before flood water flows to the sea, has nine pump stations and could drain about 40 million cubic metres per day of water into the Gulf of Thailand. There are 99 pump machines to drain the water but six do not function, as local authorities have not maintained them.
Flood water should be drained from Nong Chok, San Sab, Prawet, Lat Krabang, Jor Ra Keh Yai, Sam Rong Water, and Suvarnabhumi watergates. “We are waiting for Bangkok to open its gates,” he said.
“We need to drain water via Bangkok to help people living in upper areas such as Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani who have been living with floods for a month, but the most important thing is we have to control the level of water in the canals,” he added.
The level in Samut Prakan province’s canals is 2043 centimetres below normal as the local administration has drained a lot of water to the sea already.
However, Samut Prakan Governor Cherdsak Choosri accepted that some areas in the province such as Bang Bo could still be at risk from flooding should the canals overflow.
“We are preparing to evacuate 2,000 people from this area,” he said.
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
Pino Stricccoli 4
“My idea is that disasters are never natural”
Try telling that to the dinosaurs…
More on Thailand’s rainfall
some thoughts and links on the politics swirling around the Thailand flooding situation as well as the huge economic impact which will also be a large political factor over the coming months…………
================
It seems to me that the vast amount of water coming from the north got partially blocked by the Bangkok Governor (an actual royal family member) refusing to allow 4 or 5 Bangkok canals to be used to drain water to the south. Bangkok became a kind of dam making it impossible for the water to get to the sea as fast as it needed to.
More water was coming than was going and it just rose higher and higher at all those industrial estates on the northern side of BKK. Apparently they account for 1/3 of the entire world’s hard drive capacity as well as a lot of very modern Japanese electronics and vehicle factories, all of which undoubtedly have a huge amount of electrical and computer equipment which will now be totally ruined by the water.
Almost 2 million jobs are on those industrial estates….that’s a lot of payroll and jobs…if each job represents the livelihood of a family of 4, it means 8 million people live off those factories. And either the Japanese or someone else will have to invest the billions necessary to replace all the ruined assembly line equipment and also the ruined partially completed inventory.
Apparently the BKK governor refused to follow the direct orders of the Yingluck government to open the gates to the canals, telling her he answered to the residents of BKK, not to her…..obviously he will be re-elected if BKK is spared as the voters to the north don’t vote in BKK and the BKK voters will be very grateful.
Once Yingluck declared the “State of Emergency” (some other phrasing/title I believe), it gave her the authority to order the Governor of BKK to open the gates. If he were to refuse, she could remove him from his position. So last night they started to open the BKK canal gates on the northern side of the city and they have to now be sure to exactly balance the water coming in to the water going out, otherwise there will be flooding in Central BKK.
Another very odd circumstance to me is that out of an Army of 300,000 plus, only 20 to 40,000 soldiers were mobilized to do flood work. What are all the other soldiers doing? There’s no imminent danger from Burma, Laos or Cambodia. Are they all providing security for BKK condos and shopping centers and military owned niteclubs? Where are all the motorized watercraft the military has? Why aren’t they out in the flooded areas? Where are the helicopters? Why aren’t there 200,000 soldiers helping? Where is the Thai Navy and their small boats?
I think the answer has to be that the military does not see itself as taking orders from the Yingluck government. The voters who work on the industrial estates are all Pheu Thai voters and if the Yingluck government is falling behind and failing, it is all good for General Payruth and the royalist crew.
I know for a fact that the U.S. has offered to deploy a lot of helicopters on 24 hour notice to help in the flooded areas. The largest aircraft carrier in the world has been brought up near Thailand for this sole purpose. These are the same crews that saved Aceh in Indonesia after the tsunami and they know how to do it. But they are being delayed by some opaque behaviour by the Thai military.
Why? What possible reason can they have to not inject 50 to 100 state of the art, well-maintained and expertly piloted helicopters into the flood areas? In the Katerina aftermath, the hundreds of helicopters were the only thing that finally turned the tide.
In theory, under the “State of Emergency” Yingluck can give orders to the Army at this point….but I doubt if the Army will actually follow her orders despite the State of Emergency….
Below are several articles covering various economic and political aspects of the flooding situation…..
=================
1. Detailed article about the 9 large industrial estates north of Bangkok that have been flooded and detail about economic impact….
flooded industrial estates north of BKK.jpg
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/262602/industrial-sentiment-plunges-in-september
Industrial sentiment plunges in September
Published BKK Post: 22/10/2011 at 12:00 AM
Industrial sentiment hit a 26-month low in September as businesses are concerned the government’s perceived slow response to the flood crisis will affect the country’s GDP.
Payungsak Chartsutthipol, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), yesterday warned sentiment would drop further this month given the extensive damage suffered by the sector.
“If the situation lingers, then GDP will be hit even harder, as the industrial sector directly correlates with employment,” he said, adding that damage to the sector was estimated at 100 billion baht so far.
The FTI said each month the crisis lasts will cost the sector another 100 billion baht, and if it lingers to year-end, then GDP growth would miss the target of 3.5% to 4.5%.
The Thai Industries Sentiment Index fell to 90.7 points in September from 102.5 in August due to the flooding in the North that resulted in reduced sales and production.
Mr Payungsak urged the government to loosen regulations for businesses after the floodwater recedes so procedures that usually take two or three months can be done immediately.
Meanwhile, Tiziana Bonapace, head of ICT and disaster risk reduction at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, urged the Thai government to protect inner Bangkok.
“If inner Bangkok is inundated, Thailand might take longer to recover,” he said.
Mr Bonapace also said social media and mobile devices were important channels for rapid dissemination of information.
“It is crucial for the central authorities to set up a team to communicate with online channels and learn from actual experience,” he said. “The Japanese government used social media to communicate with the public and respond quickly to online rumours in the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami.”
Mr Bonapace said that apart from upgrading water management and control systems, Thailand needs a disaster management plan in the long term that includes national security and evacuation measures.
High-risk areas are especially in need of an all-inclusive safety plan for schools, hospitals, offices and homes, he said.
Seven industrial estates in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani including Bang Kadi, the latest to be hit, have been damaged, with five areas on red alert – Bang Chan and Lat Krabang in Bangkok, Bang Phli and Bangpoo in Samut Prakan and Kaeng Khoi in Saraburi.
Industry Minister Wannarat Channukul urged the Lat Krabang Industrial Estate to be prepared for flooding in the next couple of days, as water will arrive early next week.
“We need to protect our last bastion as best we can,” he said, adding the estate was increasing its earthen dykes to 3.5 metres above sea level, up from 2.1 metres.
====================
2. Article about only 1 of the 9 or 10 large industrial parks that got flooded north of BKK…………
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262583/damage-to-bangkadi-park-put-at-b30bn
Damage to Bangkadi park put at B30bn
Published BKK Post: 22/10/2011 at 12:00 AM
The flood that has ravaged Bangkadi industrial park in Pathum Thani’s Muang district is estimated to have caused at least 30 billion baht in damage.
Sony under water – Much of the Sony facility in Bangkadi Industrial Estate in Pathum Thani’s Muang district lies submerged. The flood waters are about 3 metres high. PATTARACHAI PREECHAPANICH
Bangkadi, home to mostly electronics and electrical appliance manufacturers, is the seventh industrial site to have succumbed to the surging waters.
It houses 47 factories including those of Toshiba and Sony.
“The initial damage is estimated at 30 billion baht. It will take about a month for the floodwaters to recede and then at least three months to rehabilitate the park,” said Thawatchai Ung-ampornpilai, the mayor of Bangkadi municipality.
Mr Thawatchai said the floodwaters are almost 4 metres deep in certain parts of the site, making it impassible to all vehicles.
The industrial park had tried to hold back the water for days but the efforts failed on Thursday night when a floodwall was breached after a massive volume of water overflowed from the Prapa canal.
“The water level in the Prapa canal rose very high and it overflowed the dyke. After that the dyke broke.
“We tried to fix it but it was just impossible,” said the mayor, who was about to leave the site when the breach occurred.
“As I sped off I saw the flood bring down pylons. Luckily no one was injured,” he said. It was reported that a large number of staff were trapped inside when the flood gushed in.
About 500 personnel from the army, navy and border patrol police as well as local authorities were yesterday mobilised to evacuate the remaining people from the industrial park.
The evacuation was completed yesterday evening.
“The floodwater came in so fast that we didn’t have time to run and it was incredibly high,” said a worker who was with the last batch of people to be evacuated.
After the evacuation, soldiers will set up a make-shift unit there to guard the premises.
Mr Thawatchai said authorities were drafting a plan for how to salvage the industrial park.
Under the initial plan, the floodwater would be diverted to Khlong Bang Ngiew, to Khlong Chiang Rak and then to the Chao Phraya River.
In Pathum Thani’s Thanyaburi district, chaos descended on a community at Rangsit market which was under water one metre deep.
While people were evacuating, a group of people with spades tried to break the earthen dyke in the hope that it would reduce the water level in the community.
On the outbound lane of Phahon Yothin road heading to the North, police set up roadblocks to prevent small vehicles from passing through due to the high level of the floodwaters.
Many motorists decided to park their vehicles on the flyover across the Rangsit canal and on the elevated tollway.
=============
3. Article about Burmese factory workers:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262581/help-on-the-way-for-burmese-trapped-at-industrial-estate
===========
4. Article which touches on Yingluck/BKK Governor conflict…..
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262580/pm-takes-charge-of-flood-crisis
============
5. Article about the shortage of motorized rescue boats….
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262582/relief-effort-falters-in-bang-bua-thong
=============
6. Article about BKK problems that are building up…..
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262592/biggest-challenge-yet-to-come
=============
7. Article about how Thai exports and the global supply chain will be affected….
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/262603/focus-on-recovery-say-execs
===============
and finally, this just in, Yingluck on tv Saturday morning, very somber, telling BKK residents the entire city might be flooded with up to 3 feet of water and the water might stick around a while……..
http://www.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/284168.html#.TqJTHLHzZuw.twitter
PM: Floods arriving to Bangkok, to divert water into sea
р╕зр╕▒р╕Щр╣Ар╕кр╕▓р╕гр╣М р╕Чр╕╡р╣И 22 р╕Х.р╕Д. 2554
BANGKOK, Oct 22 — Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Saturday said more floodwater from the northern region was arriving to Bangkok and that the water management plan was important to address the flow of floodwater to minimize impact on public.
Hosting her weekly TV programme “Yingluck Government Meets the People” on National Broadcasting Television (NBT) or Channel 11 and simulcast on Radio Thailand, the premier said extra protection would be given to historical sites, palaces, hospitals, business areas, main transportation routes, airports, MRT stations, and public utilities services.
She said the nature of water was to flow from higher to lower ground, but containing water would make the water uncontrollable, as dykes could be destroyed by the force of water.
The flood prevention wall could only slow the water, she said, but could not permanently stop the flow.
Ms Yingluck said that the government was forced to implement Article 31 of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act B.E. 2550 because there was a need to jointly manage water effectively at the national and local levels in order to drain floodwater to the sea as quickly as possible and ease difficulties.
The government and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) would have to cooperate in opening the water sluice gates, she said.
As precautionary measures, Ms Yingluck said she recommended the public monitor information, move their valuable items and belongings to higher ground at least one metre high, and separate electricity system in their homes between the ground floor and the second floor.
During the next round of high tide during Oct 28-30, she said, the Royal Irrigation Department would be responsible for adjusting the drainage and controlling the water sluice gates.
She said the government has prepared 1,743 shelters for flood victims at provinces affected by the flood which could serve some 800,000 people.
There were now 113,369 people staying at the shelters, she said.
As for the rehabilitation plan, she said the government has prepared measures to help flood victims, including workers and business operators both major and minor.
The Prime Minister urged the public not to be panic and asked for cooperation from all relevant agencies to fight the problem and to have patience in overcoming the problems together. (MCOT online news)
More on Thailand’s rainfall
Surely it would be possible to set up a model based on (1) actual rainfall statistics throughout the country, (2) river and reservoir water levels and (3) weather forecasts, which could reasonably determine and predict the likelihood of serious flooding and so enable appropriate action to be taken well in advance? Maybe such a model already exists, but if so nobody seems to have paid any heed to it. What seems clear now is that the potential determinants were all in place well before anybody began to raise any serious alarms (and, incidentally, well before the present government came into office)
More on Thailand’s rainfall
Jit, thanks. Can you provide some links to the predictions of (extra-)heavy rainfall from the beginning of the year. They would be useful for an understanding of how this has been managed. AW