Comments

Why do you think that they can’t go for the shopping malls, if things are turning very ugly?

Why don’t they threaten to destroy Paragon? The Ammataya’s playground. The army would be called off I believe if they thought it was wired up with some home made fireworks etc explosives. The redshirts have been remarkably disciplined. There have been no reports of looting. This a fight for democracy but I agree should elections be called and the Pheu Thai won would General Prayuth guarantee the safety of the government against PAD etc? We can only hope that the thai public will gain and understanding of how Thai society really works. .

If the Phrai truly carries through with their saying, “The blood of the phrai is worth nothing” (a phrase which has multiple connotations, among which are: a Phrai is deemed ‘worthless’, and for a Phrai to shed his blood in the sacrifice of struggle is nothing) I should think that if the Thai Phrai, at this moment of time, has that mental resoluteness and fortitude to fight on irregardless, to carry matters through to the bitter end, I do not really see how the Bangkok elites, military and Ammataya could possibly prevail. Even if they could clear Bangkok, as they clearly could albeit with great bloodshed, it still remains available for the Phrai to carry out subsequent multiple hit and run attacks. Such attacks, classic asymmetric incidents, with the perpetrators ‘swimming’ in a sea of sympathetic populace would be very disruptive and economically very costly. And all that the Phrai is asking for is fair democratic elections as a circuit breaker to the present ruptures. The Ammataya on pure cost/benefit analysis alone should come to the conclusion that democratic elections, with the results respected, represents the only solution; the ‘costs’ of grievous turmoil continuing would be just too much. This would only be if the Phrai has that mental resoluteness and fortitude to fight on irregardless, to carry matters through to the bitter end. I am not sure of this though.

Kishen you’re writing great stuff – so good in fact, it requires lengthy analysis.
But I’d just like to make this short comment :
“CLASS struggle” ?
I remain unconvinced we’re seeing anything like a fully developed CLASS consciousness.
Eg. The Red Shirts don’t have much class support in the Democrat-dominated South.
I strongly suggest the class element is closely entwined with REGIONALISM – especially Lao / Isaarn and Lanna / Chiang Mai and Chieng Rai regionalism.

The video posted by StanG purporting to show red shirts using an M-79 grenade launcher shows no such thing. Do not expect any retraction from him.

I think this article need a lot (I means really a LOT) of further research. For example, the reason Abhisit boycotted Thaksin’s election call in March 2006 was because, during the first term, Thaksin keep taking over small political parties by buying the key MPs from them. The election would only to confirm his righteousness as a true leader. The Thaksin’s party would win over 70% of the seats. It would be a government without opposition. Abhisit who graduated from the country where there is no codified constitution (small c-constitution) thought that this was a dictatorship in making. British idea is that you can not codify everything only custom, tradition and ethics that keeps democracy works. Thaksin looked at Lee Guan Yeu & Maha Teh and thought may be dictatorship is what Thailand wants to become tiger number x. His business logic that high priced lawyer trumps ethics always crash with Abhisit’s British’s non codified constitution idea.

for example ………

Silom has been closed since Narathiwat with military checking who gets in and out. Surawong has been also closed but it is possible to pass through the block with a motorbike going in the direction of MBK. This whole section of Rama IV is completely empty, dotted with orange plastic barriers, razor wires, and small groups of soldiers sitting in the shadow. The place is surreal as compared with normal life but the atmosphere is relatively relaxed. I drove down the empty Rama IV, passed Wat Hualampong where monks walk pass three green chairs where military sit in full gear, guns sitting at the base of a tree and three motortaxi drivers on their bikes waiting for clients that I doubt will ever arrive. At the intersection with Ratchathewi orange barrier and razor wire block completely the street. I tried to go back and a soldier told me just to get on the foot path and drive back to Surawong. I am not sure if some teargas was used here before but the air hitches. I drive back return to Narathiwat. Sathorn also now is completely closed all the way, but here police patrol the area. Back into Soi 7 and Suan Phlu when now just a small group of tuk-tuk drivers are stopped at the intersection. I decide to go check the situation in Ngan-Dumphli. As I drive in that direction many people are getting out. I arrive to the end of Ngan-Dumpli. The narrow soi seems completely closed from what look like a localized storm cloud. The thick wall of smoke almost covers completely the small space between the buildings on Rama IV. The crowd is much bigger than in the morning and the tires have been piled up. Molotov as well went “pro”. Larger bottles and higher success rate. Tires are constantly made roll into Rama IV and light up with a small battery of Molotov, to cover the visibility to the army toward the other red barricade situated 300 meters down Rama IV in the direction of Klong Toei. Everybody is wearing a white mask covering their mouths that are distributed by a guy on a motorcycle down the soi and pushed toward the left wall of the soi, as they say two people have been shot dead and a paramedical injured there from the buildings overlooking the soi before I arrived. Three bullets holes in a window on the right side of the street seem to confirm gun shots coming from there. Down the soi three cars of fire fighters wait to see how the situation evolves. At the corner with Rama IV about 50 people squat behind a wall of tires, cover and dispensary for future burning. Some of them throw Molotov to keep the tires burning and stone with slingshot in the direction of the army. I have not seen any other weapon. The army is responding with whatever they can. The dry sounds of shotgun and the louder echoes of grenades fill the air, mixed with the smell of tires and petards thrown by the red. I stay there for about an hour and a half, watching the sun go down and the intensity of the shoots increase. Behind the line an older man, in dark gear and a helmet, as most of the people there, direct the movement of the people and the positioning of the tires. He is a motortaxi as well, he recognizes me (I am researching the multiples roles of motortaxis in the city) and greets me, tells me to be careful, and reports the dead of two people earlier on, shot in the head (I later got confirmation of this from a journalist who was there when it happened). Suddenly a wave shakes the crowd and everybody start running back into the soi, following the fire fighters cars. I decide to remain here so I do not know what exactly was going on or for what were they running. Rumors are there was a house on fire but I have no idea. The situation remains stable for a while with people on this side keeping the smoke as thick as possible and the military shooting in this direction and small explosions in the middle of Rama IV near the soi. On the opposite side of Rama IV in a small soi and in a building, constantly chipped by bullets another group of red shirts (none of them wears red at this point) are communicating with this side about their situation. The motortaxi driver who directs the operation shouts “speak in Khmer so they can’t understand”. Not sure if is effective with the military, it definitely is with me. As the lights goes down most of the journalists start going away, it is not the right day to be around once the night arrives. As the sounds of explosions and the flashes get closer to the beginning of the soi I decide to go back home. Enough for now.

“Also with comment rating, commentator shouldn’t take it personal.”

People are naturally wired to look for positive feedback.

At this point I have no idea how the rating system intends to affect the commentators, even in theory. I don’t see how it would weed out “repetitive ranting, unimaginative point-scoring and idle abuse”, for example.

I myself find being more attracted to checking “hidden” comments more than “quality” ones but maybe that’s just the novelty factor.

I know many here disagree but I very much regret the red shirts’ didn’t accpt the roadmap, whatever concerns there may have been about the sincerity of the government. On the face of it, it seemed a good offer – a chance to have within a few short months elections that Pheua Thai would have had a good chance of winning. The conditions added later for Suthep’s surrender to the DSI and CSD were the stuff of farce that only sounded good on the red shirt stage and made the red shirt leadership appear ridiculous. By accepting the roadmap, the leaders could have saved a lot of lives and still retained the option to protest again later, if they felt cheated in the implementation of the roadmap. By attributing the volte face on the roadmap to Thailand’s loss of faith in electoral democracy, you seem to be suggesting that the red shirt leaders are not interested in elections because all out revolution is the aim, resulting in some sort of red shirt totalitarian state. In any event the case against the Democrat Party seems to be getting fast track treatment, despite the infamous double standards we hear so much of, and the yellow shirts will probably never recover their credibility lost after the airport seizure. Both factors could severely limit potential parliamentary and street opposition to a future Pheua Thai government.

I think the red shirt leaders and Thaksin will need to take joint responsibility for the lives lost through not giving the roadmap a chance. They knew they had a lot of hot headed young men whipped up to a frenzy after weeks of aggressive demoguogery who would certainly end up dead or maimed as a result of their decision but they seemed not to have cared. This could indeed be interpreted as giving up interest in parliamentary democracy, despite the advantages building up in favour of Pheua Thai, and wanting some form of more instant political gratification in its place.

@ Shit Stirrer #17

More like a flare or bottle rocket. M79s are a just a tad bigger, take just a tad longer to aim.

Have you ever done anything in your life other than hunt for snipe?

Paul Moribito # 20 :

Re :
1)”They’re also highlighting the weakness of their movement and its inevitable defeat.”
There’s nothing “inevitable” about any of this.
2)” We haven’t seen any mass uprising, especially in the north and north-east so we aren’t approaching an all out civil war (as some claim).”.
Remember things happen slowly in Thailand.
There have certainly been “incidents”, and signs soldiers in Isaarn and Lanna support the Red Shirts (eg. seizure by 1,000 local troops in Khon Kaen of a train Red Shirts suspected of being part of the crackdown).
Bangkok Bank in Ubon Ratchathani was sprayed with bullets yesterday.
The momentum to rebellion in the North and North-east will build as casualties flow back to town and villages there.
During 2006’s anti-Thaksin coup, the Isaarn-based Third Army was marching on Bangkok to restore him as PM, but was disuaded by superior anti-Thaksin forces.
Since then there has been an intense struggle to ensure anti-Thaksin command of the Third Army.

3) “thai people ……. aren’t about to throw themselves in front of the military.” You must be blind, because this is exactly what they ARE DOING right now. Including some police, who have fired back at the military.