Comments

As I have mentioned before – and it will become increasingly apparent – PMSamak is his own man, always has been. Getting to the top job at the twilight of his career also proves that he is an opportunist par excellence. He played his role admirably (perfectly in fact) during the PMThaksin Vs PAD saga pre- and post- coup to enter PMThaksin’s innermost circle, as he did his royalist card…

No, I am not saying PMSamak fooled PMThaksin or vice versa, for this is an intriguing new political game amongst ‘equals’ – especially now that Samak holds the PM post while Thaksin financially commands loyalty of PPP MPs. According to Mr.Thaksin’s script, this government is supposed to be short-lived – around 6 months to a year at most (coinciding with the times rumoured for his return). This ‘interim’ government is suppose to overturn the ban on the 111 former TRT executives, manipulate the Shinawatra’s court cases, and changed the constitution and then make way for PMThaksin’s return to power. The cabinent lineup, clearly of PMThaksin’s picking that even PMSamak himself brand as “ugly”, reflects its intended very short term. PMThaksin will not leave this to chance.

PMSamak clearly has other ideas and wants to implement his 40 years old agenda of mega-projects, particularly the mass-transit system (which made me go soft on him) – and intends to stay the distance to see it through as much as he could. He knows whether he likes it or not, he is destined to be a one-term prime minister and will extend it as long as he could. All of a sudden, Mr.Thaksin’s priorities is not his and could wait a few years. Naturally he wants to leave his mark (as does Mr.Chalerm it seems – and they will make a strong alliance amidst their pro-Thaksin PPP colleagues) – but this is clearly an uphill battle considering the cards Mr.Thaksin played. PMSamak is also calling this bluff mentioning he might release some of the 111 banned politicians (not all it must be noted) to increase competence in his government (and thus extend its term).

In effect, I think PMSamak is saying that things will go according to Mr.Thaksin’s script, but on Samak’s terms and timeline. The question is does Mr.Thaksin have that patience?

His handpicked cabinet lineup clearly makes him much less popular in Bangkok – but he doesn’t care for them now as he did not care for the South since they voted for the Democrats. With an eventual extra unfrozen war chest of USD2billion, he is bound to win everytime anyway.

The Democrats? With no money they have no choice but to stay on the sidelines – as they had to be during the formation of the PPP government. The sad thing is if Mr.Thaksin’s gamble go awry, with an incompetent cabinet meeting with a global economic recession, they will assume power only to clean up the mess and make career-killing very unpopular decisions – with Mr.Thaksin then coming back to take all the credits for reviving the economy. History repeating itself all over again…

Thomas, thank you for your reply but I believe, and the General secretary of the Karen National Union has confirmed this, that Nerdah Mya is not able to make political appointments. there is no diplomatic section of the KNU rather a foreign affairs section the current head of which is Saw David Taw. Regardless of this I am sure everyone welcomes your contribution to the Karens’ cause.

I am replying to the Karen History and Culture Preservation Society and the questions that they have asked.
First of all I am not in dispute of what they have stated (ref.Naw Louisa Benson being the US representative of the KNU in the United States) on this issue.
I have been duly appointed by Colonel Nerdah Mya as the Consul General (diplomatic section), of the Karen National Union
in the United States and furthermore I am Colonel Nerdah’s personal representative in the United States.
May I suggest that those wanting a more clearer view of the Karen National Liberation Army as well as the Karen National Union, that they purchase my book as all that your readers want to know is within its pages (to include over 50 photos, maps, etc.), and furthermore with purchasing this book they will be giving back to the Karen National Liberation Army a donation of 90% of the royalities to assist them in taking care of their wounded soldiers and the families of these men and women who have been injured in fighting for Karen independence.
Within my book ( War in Karen Country) your readers will find the necessary links (through e-mail addresses), for Colonel Nerdah and the KNLA and I hope that my book will bring them the aid that they need to win over a ruthless enemy.

Sincerely,

Thomas James Bleming
Consul General
Republic of Kawthoolei
Karen National Union
Lusk,Wyoming 82225-0914 (USA)

Andrew – Congratulations. I look forward to reading it.

Speaking of the royal endorsement, here’s what His Majesty had to say about foreign politicians who – unlike Thai powerholders (?) – don’t work for the public good.

“In other countries, we hardly see people who work for public interest but you have to do it.”
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=125766

Just another example for the king’s distaste for international forms of politics (or his imprudent style of speech).

Since the late 1980s and particularly since 2004, there has been in northern Phetchabun and eastern Phitsanulok an increasing number of land transactions (mostly for rubber and teak plantations, but also for resorts, secondary residences, etc.). Large-scale transactions have become actually quite common and the largest I’ve seen represent about 10 square kilometers. These large-scale land transactions have occurred only in the rainfed uplands, which used to be dominated by maize cultivation. Some of the previous owners are then hired to plant the rubber or for other tasks.

I don’t want to go into the details of such land transactions. So I’ll stick to the following two points:

1) Based on my rather imperfect data, I’d say the 1997 crisis didn’t have a clear impact on the number of land transactions, or the capacity of capitalist owners to use their lands. If it had an impact, I believe it was mostly temporary and the interests of local and non-local elite to buy lands from villagers quickly resumed. However, I do have indications that in a few cases, the new absenteist owner was unable to use the land for a long period of time due to economic crisis (this might have led to secondary forest re-growth on their lands).

2) In the case of these large-scale land transactions, the farmers’ motivation to sell their land is ultimately the result of their incapacity to secure a relatively “safe” income from these upland rainfed lands. Basically, they begun to loose money increasingly frequenly out of maize cultivation, these debts became increasingly larger as maize cultivation became capital intensive (and the state didn’t provide help), and the farmers were in general unable to find alternative crops that local middlemen were willing to buy.

In any case, large tracks of land have been laying fallow since the early 1990s and most of it has reverted to secondary mixed deciduous forest. What the local and non-local elite have been buying en masse since 2004 is usually these secondary forests, which they clear to make way rubber plantations, teak plantations, resorts, etc.

There have been reports of other big holdings. I seem to recall that Sudarat and her spouse declared large landholdings in their last asset declaration. Was it mainly urban? How did it compare to Charoen’s holdings? There was data much earlier (70s?) regarding large royal landholdings in the countryside. When the big floods hit Ayudyha a couple of years ago, there were some notes in the press about the king’s landholdings in the area being flooded: “His Majesty has 2,000 rai of land in Thung Makham Yong, Thung Phu Khao Thong and Muang district’s Tambon Ban Mai” (Nation, 11 Oct 2006). 2000 rai is not huge, but maybe there is more reporting of this elsewhere?

Thomas I was under the impression that the current head of the Karen National Union is Saw Ba Thin Sein and he has been since 2000. The current US Representative for the KNU is Naw Louisa Benson and that Colonel Nerdah Mya is 201 and Headquarters’ Battalion commander and as such as no political office within the organisation – anything you could do to further clarify your position would be welcome.

Polo: The depreciation gain for rice farmers lasted only one season because all the input prices (fertiliser, pesticide, etc) then went up. I agree totally that Charoen is likely to have accumulated his land by buying from other entrepreneurs who had been accumulating land banks. Charoen’s two banks were not the mechanism. He lost control of both of them right at the onset of the crisis. I don’t think he had much (if any) agricultural land before 1997. He started buying into sugar mills as part of his defence of the liquor monopoly in 1999, and may have acquired some sugarcane plantations at the same time.

DF: I agree, the amount is not excessive for Charoen. He could buy a lot more, and the BP article hints that he will. The interesting point is that Thailand has really has been a smallholder society, and this could now be changing. The only large plantations were rubber holdings in the south. Even many of the big estates grabbed by old aristocrats a century ago subsequently got broken up. The (few) studies of landholding have shown a fairly stable pattern, dominated by small holdings.

But several people have been wondering what will happen as labour gets transferred away from agriculture. Many migrants are now selling their family land because there is not enough labour (family or hired) left in the village to keep it going. I’m just wondering how far this has gone, and how much quicker it might soon become. The recent price shift, which increases the attractiveness of crops which lend themselves to plantation-style farming, could have a big impact.

BTW, 1 acre = approx 2.5 rai; 1 hectare = 6.25 rai, so 100,000 rai is about 40,000 acres, or 16,000 hectares. (The esoteric may disregard this post. It’s for people like me, who still think in feet, inches, yards, etc., centuries after Oz got rid of imperial measurements. ‘Multiple intelligences’ is my excuse…)