I also agree with the above reply that a major weakness of the article is the list of suspects in the table. Although some of the groups included are rather unlikely as perpetrators, rather obvious ones are totally ignored, such as factions in the military. Here is a related link: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/18/asia/thailand-bangkok-bombing-analysis/
Watching the video of the suspected bomber dropping the backpack and walking away the similarities to the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing are striking. The bombers in that case turned out to be two brothers that were self-radicalized and unconnected to any outside terrorist groups. The design of the bombs came from an online Al-Qaeda magazine. I can’t help but wonder if this is not something along those same lines.
TH
Zach,
You are a poor detective. You left too many major suspects out of the equation.The one most capable of staging this is Thai armed force itself. What about Suthep and the Democrat? They collaborated with enormous violence to pave way for the junta to stage the 2014 coup.I suggested you read Dr.Nich article about this.
I agree with the argument of the article, but I’d love to know where Zachary gets the data for the statement that “between the 2006 and 2014 coups, military expenditures increased nearly fourfold.”
In the 2006 budget, the figures for defense and internal security were 85.1 and 77.9 billion baht respectively. In the 2015 budget, they are 191.6 and 157.4 billion. Inflation between the two years is about 25%. So the amount seems to have roughly doubled, which is a lot, but quadrupling seems overclaim — unless ZA has some better figures.
Rose has been absent from Thailand for more than a decade. She knows nothing about the 4100 royal projects that our King has initiated and is in charge. She is an ungrateful individual, even though she attended a royally patronized school. She should not call herself Thai as she won’t be welcome in Thailand.
I bet a lot of those “talented Myanmar students” at ANU would prefer to live and work in Australia or in some other Western country once they have their degrees.
China is a much richer country than Burma but I know tons of Chinese students who decided to live and work in the West instead of going back to participate in “China’s Rise”.
I just want to say that Erawan Shrine was *not* being targeted. If it was, it would have been destroyed. This is not a huge target, and the body count would have probably been as large.
What was targeted was a highly visible and heavily trafficked location that included a number of well-known destinations (mall, shrine), two skytrains, etc. Also, this appears to not have been a suicide bomber, so getting away seems to have been one concern.
Since we still don’t know who it is (at this point), I suggest that even trying to figure out the suspects is speculative. Yes, it could be the person in the photos/video in the yellow shirt. But it could be someone else as well. Or that person could be a decoy. Nobody knows.
What we do know is that there is a person or people who want to act violently, and presumably have reasons (are not simply irrational). Those reasons might have to do with “who would gain” from such an act, but could also be an act of frustration, revenge, perhaps someone in particular should have been at that location and was not, or perhaps someone was, and there was an attempt to kill and make it appear like a terror attack. It could be for power, money, or any number of personal motivations.
PDRC is not a military proxy. That seems clear from the essential takeover of the government by military and ex-military officers. Indeed there is a greater percentage of military/ex-military in the current NCPO government than there is in the Myanmar government, an obvious military-run government!
Due to the various proposals regarding future Senate constitution, it seems obvious that the NCPO intends to be the “good people” who will appoint a majority of government representatives, or a group that has a comprehensive veto on laws and lawmakers, or both. The increasing criticism from ex-Democrats should indicate something there, and not just a desire to be in the media.
PDRC was a useful tool for NCPO to perform the coup, but it is no longer needed to maintain rule.
The Ghost of Samai … the pipe-bombs of Samai …. Samai the Red bomber, or his student could be responsible for the latest carnage at Erawan Shrine bombing!
Let me bet. The “ousted” U Shwe Man will become President in 2016. Agreement between DASSK and U Shwe Mann is for all intents and purposes, reassured. U Thein Sein is sincere, but not decisive enough to make changes necessary for the country. U Shwe Mann will have to carefully balance DASSK’s push to change the constitution, with military’s opposition to preserve it. With new NLD’s economic policy, things will get better in the long term.
DASSK has been talking about forming NLD government. That may be probably headed by U Shwe Mann with NLD ministers. She has put in university professors as candidates and left out headstrong 8888 generations. Maybe she begins to realize that the best legacy for her is to leave a clean and efficient government rather than to change the constitution.
This hypothesis is indeed included as Mr Blaxland mentions ‘a military proxy’. That is exactly what PDRC is. However, the scale of the bombing seems too big for such hypothesis. Maybe a mishandled operation.
Thanks Nicholas, that was interesting. I suppose the other side of the coin is whether the royal form is a bit like Latin, scheduled at some stage for extinction.
Blaxland’s three theories are not balanced or inclusive and as such, whilst they can’t be completely dismissed, just reflect the tiny bit of the picture he is seeing.
Anyone with more insight would understand from the outset that the military are not unified. So when Blaxland writes of the military which faction is he referring to?
There are even more extreme military factions lurking behind Prayuth and who are eager to establish their dominance. These factions have proven on a number of occasions that they are absolutely able to commit similar kinds of extreme violence with a similar complete disregard for the lives of Thais or anyone else. Think of Bangkok 2010, Tak Bai etc and that just in the last ten years or so.
In the background to the bombing are the military re-shuffles due for September. Very senior and powerful positions are up for grabs. The most extremist factions in the military look like that they could be squeezed out in these reshuffles.
Of course, the day before the bombing was the Crown Prince’s “Bike For Mom” PR event, when parts of central Bangkok were given over to the CP’s charge.
I’m not a fan of the “succession crisis theory” but do think the CP’s jaunt around Bangkok was an expression of power by a certain faction in the military.
This expression was possibly responded to by the bombing. An act of communication.
In summary, my view is that this appears to have been a sophisticated bombing device, in a very central and highly surveilled Bangkok location, at a site associated with certain forms of power. It has taken place within a certain context – Bike For Mom, military reshuffle – and appears to be wanting to leverage power.
Therefore, based on those assumptions (which may well be wrong – I am just positing a theory) it was a strategic and not a tactical bombing. Which in turn reflects and reinforces the view that it was likely an extremist military faction organised at a high level.
Both the Red Shirts and PAD/PDRC have only ever engaged in tactical & disruptive type bombings, grenade acts.
Yes, there could be a link between PDRC and extremist military factions – eg military faction provides planning, explosives, PDRC types carry out actual attack – but I can’t see the PAD/PDRC coming up with this on their own.
As for the Southern insurgents – would indicate a massive expansion of their activities in a way that would’ve been forewarned by intel. So unlikely.
“Prayuth has declared, from the outset that he is intent on reforming pivotal institutions of state and returning the country to the polls in 2015. His actions to date are consistent with his declared intentions”
Having just read a few pieces by this man, I can’t help but wonder just how often you have to be proved entirely wrong for people to stop re-publishing your articles; there can be few positions where you are less accountable for your failures.
The CCTV images posted on Thai Rath at noon Tuesday showed a man who looks of Middle Eastern origin putting down a backpack or the bomb itself at the bomb site. The comments say it was done as a revenge attack for the recent Uighur deportations.
Targeting a Hindu shrine popular with Chinese seems to be consistent with this hypothesis. It certainly was not an attack targeting Westerners. Remember that the Thai consulate in Istanbul was stormed by Uighur supporters right after the deportation. Yesterday, the very day of the attack, the Thai government was emphasizing its friendship with China in an official ceremony.
It makes no sense for the attack to be Red Shirts. Sunday’s Bike for Mom event would have presented a much richer target if you were aiming at embarassing and even killing the junta leaders.
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Politics and security in Thailand
I also agree with the above reply that a major weakness of the article is the list of suspects in the table. Although some of the groups included are rather unlikely as perpetrators, rather obvious ones are totally ignored, such as factions in the military. Here is a related link: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/18/asia/thailand-bangkok-bombing-analysis/
Uneasy alliance: Prabowo and the Islamic parties
[…] to Greg Fealy of ANU (link is external) Canberra, Prabowo seemed to strategically pander to Islamic sentiment, securing support for the […]
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Watching the video of the suspected bomber dropping the backpack and walking away the similarities to the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing are striking. The bombers in that case turned out to be two brothers that were self-radicalized and unconnected to any outside terrorist groups. The design of the bombs came from an online Al-Qaeda magazine. I can’t help but wonder if this is not something along those same lines.
TH
Politics and security in Thailand
Zach,
You are a poor detective. You left too many major suspects out of the equation.The one most capable of staging this is Thai armed force itself. What about Suthep and the Democrat? They collaborated with enormous violence to pave way for the junta to stage the 2014 coup.I suggested you read Dr.Nich article about this.
Politics and security in Thailand
I agree with the argument of the article, but I’d love to know where Zachary gets the data for the statement that “between the 2006 and 2014 coups, military expenditures increased nearly fourfold.”
In the 2006 budget, the figures for defense and internal security were 85.1 and 77.9 billion baht respectively. In the 2015 budget, they are 191.6 and 157.4 billion. Inflation between the two years is about 25%. So the amount seems to have roughly doubled, which is a lot, but quadrupling seems overclaim — unless ZA has some better figures.
Thai elitism and hierarchy
Rose has been absent from Thailand for more than a decade. She knows nothing about the 4100 royal projects that our King has initiated and is in charge. She is an ungrateful individual, even though she attended a royally patronized school. She should not call herself Thai as she won’t be welcome in Thailand.
Making knowledge count
I bet a lot of those “talented Myanmar students” at ANU would prefer to live and work in Australia or in some other Western country once they have their degrees.
China is a much richer country than Burma but I know tons of Chinese students who decided to live and work in the West instead of going back to participate in “China’s Rise”.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
From what I understand of the Erawan shrine is that it is a relatively new shrine – created in 1956 – and was founded by a general close to Phibun.
I’m not sure that has any significance but claims Erawan is “historic” or the “spiritual centre” of Bangkok seem very wide of the mark.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
OMG are you saying that Peter Cohen and Pearshaped aren’t one and the same. That means…there are two of them out there!
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
I just want to say that Erawan Shrine was *not* being targeted. If it was, it would have been destroyed. This is not a huge target, and the body count would have probably been as large.
What was targeted was a highly visible and heavily trafficked location that included a number of well-known destinations (mall, shrine), two skytrains, etc. Also, this appears to not have been a suicide bomber, so getting away seems to have been one concern.
Since we still don’t know who it is (at this point), I suggest that even trying to figure out the suspects is speculative. Yes, it could be the person in the photos/video in the yellow shirt. But it could be someone else as well. Or that person could be a decoy. Nobody knows.
What we do know is that there is a person or people who want to act violently, and presumably have reasons (are not simply irrational). Those reasons might have to do with “who would gain” from such an act, but could also be an act of frustration, revenge, perhaps someone in particular should have been at that location and was not, or perhaps someone was, and there was an attempt to kill and make it appear like a terror attack. It could be for power, money, or any number of personal motivations.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
PDRC is not a military proxy. That seems clear from the essential takeover of the government by military and ex-military officers. Indeed there is a greater percentage of military/ex-military in the current NCPO government than there is in the Myanmar government, an obvious military-run government!
Due to the various proposals regarding future Senate constitution, it seems obvious that the NCPO intends to be the “good people” who will appoint a majority of government representatives, or a group that has a comprehensive veto on laws and lawmakers, or both. The increasing criticism from ex-Democrats should indicate something there, and not just a desire to be in the media.
PDRC was a useful tool for NCPO to perform the coup, but it is no longer needed to maintain rule.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Yes, that’s why there are now several CCTV footage videos of the possible bomber and the explosion doing the rounds.
The ghosts of September 2006
The Ghost of Samai … the pipe-bombs of Samai …. Samai the Red bomber, or his student could be responsible for the latest carnage at Erawan Shrine bombing!
Watch the enemies from your own side
Let me bet. The “ousted” U Shwe Man will become President in 2016. Agreement between DASSK and U Shwe Mann is for all intents and purposes, reassured. U Thein Sein is sincere, but not decisive enough to make changes necessary for the country. U Shwe Mann will have to carefully balance DASSK’s push to change the constitution, with military’s opposition to preserve it. With new NLD’s economic policy, things will get better in the long term.
DASSK has been talking about forming NLD government. That may be probably headed by U Shwe Mann with NLD ministers. She has put in university professors as candidates and left out headstrong 8888 generations. Maybe she begins to realize that the best legacy for her is to leave a clean and efficient government rather than to change the constitution.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
A ‘highly surveilled Bangkok location’ Hmmmm…. surveilled Thai way indeed. Rather lax.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
This hypothesis is indeed included as Mr Blaxland mentions ‘a military proxy’. That is exactly what PDRC is. However, the scale of the bombing seems too big for such hypothesis. Maybe a mishandled operation.
Thai elitism and hierarchy
Thanks Nicholas, that was interesting. I suppose the other side of the coin is whether the royal form is a bit like Latin, scheduled at some stage for extinction.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
Blaxland’s three theories are not balanced or inclusive and as such, whilst they can’t be completely dismissed, just reflect the tiny bit of the picture he is seeing.
Anyone with more insight would understand from the outset that the military are not unified. So when Blaxland writes of the military which faction is he referring to?
There are even more extreme military factions lurking behind Prayuth and who are eager to establish their dominance. These factions have proven on a number of occasions that they are absolutely able to commit similar kinds of extreme violence with a similar complete disregard for the lives of Thais or anyone else. Think of Bangkok 2010, Tak Bai etc and that just in the last ten years or so.
In the background to the bombing are the military re-shuffles due for September. Very senior and powerful positions are up for grabs. The most extremist factions in the military look like that they could be squeezed out in these reshuffles.
Of course, the day before the bombing was the Crown Prince’s “Bike For Mom” PR event, when parts of central Bangkok were given over to the CP’s charge.
I’m not a fan of the “succession crisis theory” but do think the CP’s jaunt around Bangkok was an expression of power by a certain faction in the military.
This expression was possibly responded to by the bombing. An act of communication.
In summary, my view is that this appears to have been a sophisticated bombing device, in a very central and highly surveilled Bangkok location, at a site associated with certain forms of power. It has taken place within a certain context – Bike For Mom, military reshuffle – and appears to be wanting to leverage power.
Therefore, based on those assumptions (which may well be wrong – I am just positing a theory) it was a strategic and not a tactical bombing. Which in turn reflects and reinforces the view that it was likely an extremist military faction organised at a high level.
Both the Red Shirts and PAD/PDRC have only ever engaged in tactical & disruptive type bombings, grenade acts.
Yes, there could be a link between PDRC and extremist military factions – eg military faction provides planning, explosives, PDRC types carry out actual attack – but I can’t see the PAD/PDRC coming up with this on their own.
As for the Southern insurgents – would indicate a massive expansion of their activities in a way that would’ve been forewarned by intel. So unlikely.
Thailand’s Prayuth: Not just another coup-maker
“Prayuth has declared, from the outset that he is intent on reforming pivotal institutions of state and returning the country to the polls in 2015. His actions to date are consistent with his declared intentions”
Having just read a few pieces by this man, I can’t help but wonder just how often you have to be proved entirely wrong for people to stop re-publishing your articles; there can be few positions where you are less accountable for your failures.
Who is behind the Bangkok blast?
The CCTV images posted on Thai Rath at noon Tuesday showed a man who looks of Middle Eastern origin putting down a backpack or the bomb itself at the bomb site. The comments say it was done as a revenge attack for the recent Uighur deportations.
Targeting a Hindu shrine popular with Chinese seems to be consistent with this hypothesis. It certainly was not an attack targeting Westerners. Remember that the Thai consulate in Istanbul was stormed by Uighur supporters right after the deportation. Yesterday, the very day of the attack, the Thai government was emphasizing its friendship with China in an official ceremony.
It makes no sense for the attack to be Red Shirts. Sunday’s Bike for Mom event would have presented a much richer target if you were aiming at embarassing and even killing the junta leaders.