My experience of rural and remote Indonesia suggests is that it is not just frustration with SBY specifically, that is involved here, but rather a widespread lack of a sense of tangible dividend from the democratic era.
The ‘tegas’ association that Prabowo enjoys appeals to many rural folks who see a level of disorder and chaos in national politics. Hopes for a potentially moral political force in PKS were dashed; hope for a new start with a cleanskin party such as PD were also dashed not so much by SBY’s famed indecisiveness (in Western terms), but by party scandals. What hope remains? A tough guy who can sort out the mess, even if a bit heavy-handed.
Add in an elderly generation who retain a level of nostalgia for the predictability and stability of the New Order period, and a younger generation new to voting with no direct experience of authoritarian rule who are favoured in electoral terms by Indonesian demography.
The main frustration is with the failure of democracy to deliver, not with SBY (though clearly, he has contributed).
Most of Europe’s leaders are atheists, especially in Scandanavia. The US is atypical. Most of the Socialist nations are also run by atheists, so it is not rare in the World. Kemal Ataturk who secularised Turkey was a nominal Muslim, and was not observant. There are many examples. The point is NOT that Indonesia has to have an atheist in the Istana Merdeka, the point is that, some day, Indonesia’s leader shouldn’t HAVE TO BE a Muslim.
It’s a thought that has often occurred to me – along with those nagging doubts about whether one was reading reality or parody…..
C’mon, Andrew & Nich – time to come clean. Is this piece (since recycled as “Special to The Nation”) all that you’ve had submitted in the “Coup – no big deal/actually quite a good thing” vein? Are there really no cogent/coherent coup-apologetic arguments submitted – even in comment form – beyond those closed-loop hyperbolic diatribes we’re seeing from the likes of Vichai and notdisappointed?
No offence intended (I’ve also seen nothing elsewhere that even begins to make a coherent defence for the coup) – but, well, tongues will wag…..
I’m afraid that the reversal of the junta’s control over Thailand that so many of us hope for won’t come about until the inevitable struggle over royal family succession is resolved. And how long that will be is anyone’s guess.
Prof Edward, sekali lagi analisa anda dangkal dan partisan. Saya kecewa pernah mengundang anda disalah satu seminar tentang Indonesia sewaktu di Australia.
Kenapa sih kawan-kawan ku para Australian Scholar ini selalu negative thinking. Coba lah untuk meneliti lebih dalam. Jangan mencanangkan diri sebagai ahli Indonesia, kalau kacamata anda masih pakai kacamata Australia. Please be fair.
Saya kecewa ternyata analisa anda semua cukup dangkal dan bukan mencerminkan para akademisi yang bisa fair dan objective tanpa partisan dalam memberikan argumen.
Prabowo talks of an indigenous Indonesian democracy which seeks outcomes via consensus rather than conflict. So does Mega. Even Gunawan M likes Pancasila. It resonates with Indonesians. All nations have fault lines that can tear them apart and require Institutional responses to mitigate. Pancasila is one such rational response. The Islamists don’t like it, and a certain type of Australian academic doesn’t like it and would rather RI adopted a system which would maximise Papua’s chances of Independence, regardless of the wider humanitarian consequences. Be honest guys.
Why doubt Prabowo’s sincerity when he says he’d like a cheaper system? The present one must be bankrupting him. I had hoped to see Mr Mieztner warn readers that he has a conflict of interest on the issue, having promoted the public funding of candidates.
What rubbish. Name me one dictator who decided to not try to hold on to power because he felt that he’s too old for dictatorship? More to the point, your claim that people are being alarmists about Prabowo wanting to become the new dictator is a buck load of straw man rubbish. Name me one article on NM where the author claims that Prabowo wants to become the new Suharto. Reducing the complexity of Indonesian electoral politics to biology? Oh dear, people shouldn’t take you seriously
in my opinion … treck record prabowo so far has
been very obvious bad …. where there have been
irregularities in terms of human rights. Many of
kidnapping and killing in the ruling military prabowo.
if he could be president, I can not imagine how this country will be. Democracy will die and people will not be able to speak out freely
again … The military will return to power. It was
terrible. Since the destruction of a democratic
freedoms
Dr Deekana Tipchanta is a social science lecturer at Mahidol University International College. Tilmann Kaiser is majoring in social science at the university.
[…] Prabowo appears to some Westerners as ‘someone who “thinks like us” and talks like a Westerner’, it is because they mistakenly conflate Prabowo’s fluency in […]
55, maybe Bill recent open letter or opinion is to ramp up his royal servitude. As everyone in his circle know he is a closet penny pincher. Royalist Thai elite are more accustom to generous businessman, most them are Chinese/Thai, khun Chareon being perhaps the most generous of the them all. Could this be the reason the lease of the land in which Bill hotel is located in hua hin was not renew? could Bill possibly be feeling the heat, got panic to his standing in this circle, hereby written this ridiculous open letter supporting the military coup. He is making a fool of himself and he know it. but similar to the culture of gang initiation, he feel the need to prove his loyalty, in order to be welcome back with open arm.
Prabowo is still better than jokowi. Jokowi was made by generals who are responsible in so many cases against humanity. Letting jokowi leads will be worst than megawati’s era. Now people just need prosperity, law that is functioning, good country reputation. Prabowo never makes scenes using violents just like generals in jokowi’s team. Creating fake terrorists, making people fight between religions, etc. Plus when wiranto made FPI.
Jokowi is clearly as puppet from bosses. At least SBY is doing better than megawati. No human is perfect. Politicians????. So, there are plus & minus, and we just want to elect real leader, not fake one.
Dont pretend to be modest, when you rent house in menteng area (so expensive, I bet), yr wife is member of rotary club, etc. No need camera to show yr modesty. We need a proof from yr work. Prabowo has done better in kopassus, and his efforts to open up truth after being slandered, treated unfairly by those coward, jealous generals.
SBY is not doing good as he should, but his cchascter n prabowo’s character are different. Prabowo isnt afraid to make sensational decision. SBY tends to please everybody. Prabowo is type of leader who can unite all indonesians. That is crucial. Jokowi is manager type. And too bad, he even look bad wearing suit. Really embarrassing for international event.
I don’t doubt for a moment that behind the scenes deals have been struck to silence Thaksin. Nonetheless, I think it’s important to keep in mind that not only do the dictators stand ready to confiscate the bulk of his families fortune at the first sign of open defiance, they also effectively have their hands around the throats of Thaksins, son, sisters and most of his immediate family members and fiends who are now totally at the mercy of the dictators.
Im certainly no fan of Thaksin or the games he has played over the years, but I’m quite sure that as long as the lives of Thaksin’s immediate family members continue to dangle under the dark cloud of armed to the teeth, repressive, self appointed military dictators, we’ll find that Mr Thaksin keeps his normally loose lips well and truly sealed.
Think about it, how many of us would fore sake our own immediate family members in order to gain the satisfaction of shooting our mouths off in defiance of the generals? Or would we instead be compelled to bite our tongue and bide some time in an attempt to ensure their safety and wait for a more appropriate time to speak up?
Again, I’m certainly no fan of Thaksin, but I find the tactics and methods employed by the possey of well armed, self appointed dictators deeply disturbing and I feel that the same threat of violence that is effectively silencing dissenters within Thailand works equally well when you possess the power of life and death over someone’s family.
I stand to be corrected (& can’t find an English text of the Organic Act on Referendum 2009 to verify), but I believe the stipulation is still that at least 50% of the eligible electorate must take part in the referendum for it to be valid – the outcome then being decided by a majority of those voting.
That explains Abhisit’s 2012 attempt to persuade potential voters to simply stay away from a mooted referendum – calling for “no show” rather than “vote no”.
Jokowi is in the pockets of the multinationals, much like Yudhoyono. Should he get in, he will smile and wave and talk of democracy while the forests are felled and the material heritage and wealth of the Indonesian people are plundered by foreigners.
People who benefit from the proceeds of this criminal system like some of those who have posted comments above (whether directly or indirectly) will always speak out about Prabowo.
Young graduate students have been trained to make “human rights” an issue in the history of East Timor but not a issue in the global supply chains they continue to unthinkingly support.
The best thing Indonesia could do is to nationalize its resources. But that’s the real issue here, isn’t it? That’s the reason for the real powerful opposition to Prabowo.
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Jokowi and Prabowo reflect a decade of frustrations with SBY
My experience of rural and remote Indonesia suggests is that it is not just frustration with SBY specifically, that is involved here, but rather a widespread lack of a sense of tangible dividend from the democratic era.
The ‘tegas’ association that Prabowo enjoys appeals to many rural folks who see a level of disorder and chaos in national politics. Hopes for a potentially moral political force in PKS were dashed; hope for a new start with a cleanskin party such as PD were also dashed not so much by SBY’s famed indecisiveness (in Western terms), but by party scandals. What hope remains? A tough guy who can sort out the mess, even if a bit heavy-handed.
Add in an elderly generation who retain a level of nostalgia for the predictability and stability of the New Order period, and a younger generation new to voting with no direct experience of authoritarian rule who are favoured in electoral terms by Indonesian demography.
The main frustration is with the failure of democracy to deliver, not with SBY (though clearly, he has contributed).
Indonesians are not idiots
Most of Europe’s leaders are atheists, especially in Scandanavia. The US is atypical. Most of the Socialist nations are also run by atheists, so it is not rare in the World. Kemal Ataturk who secularised Turkey was a nominal Muslim, and was not observant. There are many examples. The point is NOT that Indonesia has to have an atheist in the Istana Merdeka, the point is that, some day, Indonesia’s leader shouldn’t HAVE TO BE a Muslim.
Foreign affairs a stranger to Indonesia’s presidential hopefuls
[…] article first appeared here in the New […]
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
It’s a thought that has often occurred to me – along with those nagging doubts about whether one was reading reality or parody…..
C’mon, Andrew & Nich – time to come clean. Is this piece (since recycled as “Special to The Nation”) all that you’ve had submitted in the “Coup – no big deal/actually quite a good thing” vein? Are there really no cogent/coherent coup-apologetic arguments submitted – even in comment form – beyond those closed-loop hyperbolic diatribes we’re seeing from the likes of Vichai and notdisappointed?
No offence intended (I’ve also seen nothing elsewhere that even begins to make a coherent defence for the coup) – but, well, tongues will wag…..
Thai coup: The debate continues
I’m afraid that the reversal of the junta’s control over Thailand that so many of us hope for won’t come about until the inevitable struggle over royal family succession is resolved. And how long that will be is anyone’s guess.
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
Setuju bangeet….
Prabowo Subianto: pilihlah aku, tetapi sekali saja
Prof Edward, sekali lagi analisa anda dangkal dan partisan. Saya kecewa pernah mengundang anda disalah satu seminar tentang Indonesia sewaktu di Australia.
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
Kenapa sih kawan-kawan ku para Australian Scholar ini selalu negative thinking. Coba lah untuk meneliti lebih dalam. Jangan mencanangkan diri sebagai ahli Indonesia, kalau kacamata anda masih pakai kacamata Australia. Please be fair.
Saya kecewa ternyata analisa anda semua cukup dangkal dan bukan mencerminkan para akademisi yang bisa fair dan objective tanpa partisan dalam memberikan argumen.
Malu euy!
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
Would you mind giving us your real name?
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
Prabowo talks of an indigenous Indonesian democracy which seeks outcomes via consensus rather than conflict. So does Mega. Even Gunawan M likes Pancasila. It resonates with Indonesians. All nations have fault lines that can tear them apart and require Institutional responses to mitigate. Pancasila is one such rational response. The Islamists don’t like it, and a certain type of Australian academic doesn’t like it and would rather RI adopted a system which would maximise Papua’s chances of Independence, regardless of the wider humanitarian consequences. Be honest guys.
Why doubt Prabowo’s sincerity when he says he’d like a cheaper system? The present one must be bankrupting him. I had hoped to see Mr Mieztner warn readers that he has a conflict of interest on the issue, having promoted the public funding of candidates.
Anti-democratic? Prabowo’s response
So your solution to this is to abolish direct election and have a ratu adil (Prabowo & his thoroughbred?) lead Indonesia instead?
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
What rubbish. Name me one dictator who decided to not try to hold on to power because he felt that he’s too old for dictatorship? More to the point, your claim that people are being alarmists about Prabowo wanting to become the new dictator is a buck load of straw man rubbish. Name me one article on NM where the author claims that Prabowo wants to become the new Suharto. Reducing the complexity of Indonesian electoral politics to biology? Oh dear, people shouldn’t take you seriously
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
in my opinion … treck record prabowo so far has
been very obvious bad …. where there have been
irregularities in terms of human rights. Many of
kidnapping and killing in the ruling military prabowo.
if he could be president, I can not imagine how this country will be. Democracy will die and people will not be able to speak out freely
again … The military will return to power. It was
terrible. Since the destruction of a democratic
freedoms
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
This article was also published in The Nation, July 2:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/This-coup-Same-same-but-different-30237500.html
The authors are described as:
Dr Deekana Tipchanta is a social science lecturer at Mahidol University International College. Tilmann Kaiser is majoring in social science at the university.
Persona non grata no more?
[…] Prabowo appears to some Westerners as ‘someone who “thinks like us” and talks like a Westerner’, it is because they mistakenly conflate Prabowo’s fluency in […]
Mr. Heinecke cannot have his coup and eat it too
55, maybe Bill recent open letter or opinion is to ramp up his royal servitude. As everyone in his circle know he is a closet penny pincher. Royalist Thai elite are more accustom to generous businessman, most them are Chinese/Thai, khun Chareon being perhaps the most generous of the them all. Could this be the reason the lease of the land in which Bill hotel is located in hua hin was not renew? could Bill possibly be feeling the heat, got panic to his standing in this circle, hereby written this ridiculous open letter supporting the military coup. He is making a fool of himself and he know it. but similar to the culture of gang initiation, he feel the need to prove his loyalty, in order to be welcome back with open arm.
Jokowi and Prabowo reflect a decade of frustrations with SBY
Prabowo is still better than jokowi. Jokowi was made by generals who are responsible in so many cases against humanity. Letting jokowi leads will be worst than megawati’s era. Now people just need prosperity, law that is functioning, good country reputation. Prabowo never makes scenes using violents just like generals in jokowi’s team. Creating fake terrorists, making people fight between religions, etc. Plus when wiranto made FPI.
Jokowi is clearly as puppet from bosses. At least SBY is doing better than megawati. No human is perfect. Politicians????. So, there are plus & minus, and we just want to elect real leader, not fake one.
Dont pretend to be modest, when you rent house in menteng area (so expensive, I bet), yr wife is member of rotary club, etc. No need camera to show yr modesty. We need a proof from yr work. Prabowo has done better in kopassus, and his efforts to open up truth after being slandered, treated unfairly by those coward, jealous generals.
SBY is not doing good as he should, but his cchascter n prabowo’s character are different. Prabowo isnt afraid to make sensational decision. SBY tends to please everybody. Prabowo is type of leader who can unite all indonesians. That is crucial. Jokowi is manager type. And too bad, he even look bad wearing suit. Really embarrassing for international event.
Thai coup: The debate continues
I don’t doubt for a moment that behind the scenes deals have been struck to silence Thaksin. Nonetheless, I think it’s important to keep in mind that not only do the dictators stand ready to confiscate the bulk of his families fortune at the first sign of open defiance, they also effectively have their hands around the throats of Thaksins, son, sisters and most of his immediate family members and fiends who are now totally at the mercy of the dictators.
Im certainly no fan of Thaksin or the games he has played over the years, but I’m quite sure that as long as the lives of Thaksin’s immediate family members continue to dangle under the dark cloud of armed to the teeth, repressive, self appointed military dictators, we’ll find that Mr Thaksin keeps his normally loose lips well and truly sealed.
Think about it, how many of us would fore sake our own immediate family members in order to gain the satisfaction of shooting our mouths off in defiance of the generals? Or would we instead be compelled to bite our tongue and bide some time in an attempt to ensure their safety and wait for a more appropriate time to speak up?
Again, I’m certainly no fan of Thaksin, but I find the tactics and methods employed by the possey of well armed, self appointed dictators deeply disturbing and I feel that the same threat of violence that is effectively silencing dissenters within Thailand works equally well when you possess the power of life and death over someone’s family.
Thai coup: The debate continues
I stand to be corrected (& can’t find an English text of the Organic Act on Referendum 2009 to verify), but I believe the stipulation is still that at least 50% of the eligible electorate must take part in the referendum for it to be valid – the outcome then being decided by a majority of those voting.
That explains Abhisit’s 2012 attempt to persuade potential voters to simply stay away from a mooted referendum – calling for “no show” rather than “vote no”.
Anti-democratic? Prabowo’s response
Jokowi is in the pockets of the multinationals, much like Yudhoyono. Should he get in, he will smile and wave and talk of democracy while the forests are felled and the material heritage and wealth of the Indonesian people are plundered by foreigners.
People who benefit from the proceeds of this criminal system like some of those who have posted comments above (whether directly or indirectly) will always speak out about Prabowo.
Young graduate students have been trained to make “human rights” an issue in the history of East Timor but not a issue in the global supply chains they continue to unthinkingly support.
The best thing Indonesia could do is to nationalize its resources. But that’s the real issue here, isn’t it? That’s the reason for the real powerful opposition to Prabowo.