But Red/Black Shirts were killing/bombing children, women and innocents … and Red Shirts rallies cheered and clapped when their leaders loudly announce those murderous attacks.
There is little doubt the deep south scenario will play out. Low level insurgency. This time however the 200 ruling families will be targeted to some extent, and they will be hit where it hurts most. The pocket. Internal conflict in the army is weeks not months away, and although I would love to see the Thais pull a solution out of the bag, from what I hear and read the chances of such have all but evaporated with the fascist coup. A 5 to 10 year dark period is likely. The end game is in play.
I see both side with weakness but only Thaksin was capable for the very reform that made many despise him. Look at what he tried reforming lost money making state enterprise and they are now up in arms against him. It is the people that needed reform and not the system that it being blame.
The “policy” corruption accusations that I think you are referring to were extremely dubious and based upon stock price increases that were only on par with ASX increases. I think the Ratchadaphisek land deal verdict was obviously also politically motivated, especially when you see the harshness of the sentence.
I guess the point is that the success of the establishment in demonising Thaksin makes it very difficult to grow middle class support in the UDD movement (that isn’t already there) outside of the North. I understand this may be difficult anyway, given middle class loyalties lie with the family, and hence, their alliances. But conditions will change and the reality is I think progressive
politics will be an easier sell without the shadow of Thaksin.
Thank you for your comment. As you work for the prestigious Bangkok Post, you might have read about what NCCC did in the past few years without me putting them in this entry.
My point is the difference in how NCCC handling two cases of two different parties. I said nothing about the merit of the scheme. Please read again. 😉
What Thailand desperately needs now is not unity but strong institutions that can peacefully manage disagreement. Thailand’s over-investment in the monarchy as a symbol of national unity means that institutions that can constructively manage conflict have never been able to flourish.
The second core institutional failure that Thailand now confronts is the weakness of its opposition. This may seem like a strange claim to make given that opposition forces have succeeded in precipitating the overthrow of the government. But this outcome is a result of opposition weakness, not strength.
The assumption seems to be that those who have seized power outside the law, again, have somehow made a mistake; have made a good faith design error in their structure of state.
They have not made a mistake. They think of themselves as essentially different from superior to the people of Thailand and have no intention of building a democracy. They never have and they never will.
The reason the Democrat Party is so weak is that it despises democracy and the people of Thailand. This is not a question of an honest mistake. This system was designed from the top down to get exactly the results it does get.
The people need to write-off the government of Thailand and exercise democracy directly : organize elections of their own and elect a parliament on their own. Then write a Constitution of their own. Or the other way ’round. Politics is not rocket science … unless you are trying to defend indefensible privilege, then the wicket gets sticky. The ‘elite’ … the ‘best and the brightest’ … in Thailand are hopeless.
Conversations with my wife:
Q-I don’t think a military coup helps the democratic -process..
A-Don’t want to talk about this…All politicians are corrupt, Thai army love and protect Thai people….
Q-But how do you reconcile that with the deaths of Thai people and extrajudicial executions over the last 50 years?
A-Don’t talk about this, it is dangerous and they might come for you too……
Q- OK then…next subject?
You are right, again I was not precise. It is true that there is a “red threat” and a “red mess” discourse, both have considerable convening and mobilising power – as could be witnessed over the last 7 months.
By their vary nature, discourses are constantly shifting in teir relevance in explaining the world for a certain group of people.In other words the discourse landscape looked different in 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2014.
In order to stabilise their rule and manufacture consent, the military cannot only rely on one discourse community, but would need to reach out to as many as possible.
And this is precisely what I doubt. By its very nature, a coercive and repressive approach (which is a “purge” by definition) resonates only with the “red threat” discourse community.
Obviously, there are no numbers to relate the strengths of these discourse communities to each other; moreover, discursive power is not only determined by numbers, as elite discourses show.
However, it is my perception from observing the various protest waves over the last years that the “red mess” discourse by far outweighs the “red threat”.
It appears because of a number of arms and deadly weapons found at the Red Shirts rally site at Aksa road/Uthayan area, the army had to drain the canals thereat; and even more deadly armory of guns, bombs et al were found, apparently dumped by many murderous elements freely mixing, as usual, with the Red Shirts.
Wherever Red Shirts gather. it is a given that people will be shot or maimed.
It is a running joke during past Red Shirts rallies that the safest place to be in Bangkok is where the Red Shirts leaders are: a guarantee that no M79 grenade will be launched or lobbed thereat.
Daniel S
Suggest that you ask your wife to provide a detailed account of how Thaksin was corrupt. She has been a victim of repeated propaganda that because Thaksin is filthy rich, he must have cheated. Sure, the guy is enviable rich, but he had become rags to rich before he entered politics. We should give a credential to investigators appointed by the previous junta to sniff through all evidences for years but eventually ended up with almost nothing to pin Thaksin.
Some people believed Thaksin’s asset seizure is the hard evidence against the man. But fews know that the court simply use arithmatic of Thaksin’s networth ‘before and after’ public office tenure. Meaning he must do no other business during his time as Prime Minister, including his stock value must be frozen.
Sam
[…] groups such as Shia and Ahmadiyah (a frequent criticism of the Yudhoyono government relates to its failure to protect such groups from persecution). Coupled with Prabowo’s willingness to adopt a more ‘Islamic’ tone in his campaign […]
Democracy is a bitch, isn’t it? From Boston to Bangkok, when the swinish multitude keeps electing the other side and you for whatever reason but definitely unpopular can’t get back in.
Only the reaction to rejection by the electorate these days is no longer a shot from a grassy knoll in the West anymore. Let’s limit it to character assassination instead.
In the Third World however, unsurprisingly one might say, the opposition to such popular opposition in office can still take violent forms, be it directly or supported by the state security apparatus backing the conservative forces or civil war. And not just in the Third World one could say, in Europe itself as we have witnessed in the Ukraine.
So what next? At this rate, as constitutional means, dare I say democratic institutions have been manifestly found wanting, more than likely it will descend into the abyss of civil war.
Next door in Burma the only difference is the ancien regime clings on to power by a bogus constitution as it has by necessity for survival had to change tack, but it’s looking like heading towards renewed confrontation and perhaps violent conflict.
I guess we just have to let them fight it out the medieval way. But I doubt it if the West will wash its hands off whatever scenario being played out in any case, if not already involved from the start.
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Thailand, what next?
But Red/Black Shirts were killing/bombing children, women and innocents … and Red Shirts rallies cheered and clapped when their leaders loudly announce those murderous attacks.
Thailand’s information war
IMO being in the minority is preferable to being one of the NM herd taking cheap shots at those presenting facts which they find inconvenient.
Thailand’s invitation to violence
There is little doubt the deep south scenario will play out. Low level insurgency. This time however the 200 ruling families will be targeted to some extent, and they will be hit where it hurts most. The pocket. Internal conflict in the army is weeks not months away, and although I would love to see the Thais pull a solution out of the bag, from what I hear and read the chances of such have all but evaporated with the fascist coup. A 5 to 10 year dark period is likely. The end game is in play.
Thailand, what next?
Hi Khemthong, Can I translate your article for the Weekly Journal in Myanmar.
Thailand, what next?
I see both side with weakness but only Thaksin was capable for the very reform that made many despise him. Look at what he tried reforming lost money making state enterprise and they are now up in arms against him. It is the people that needed reform and not the system that it being blame.
Thailand’s invitation to violence
The “policy” corruption accusations that I think you are referring to were extremely dubious and based upon stock price increases that were only on par with ASX increases. I think the Ratchadaphisek land deal verdict was obviously also politically motivated, especially when you see the harshness of the sentence.
I guess the point is that the success of the establishment in demonising Thaksin makes it very difficult to grow middle class support in the UDD movement (that isn’t already there) outside of the North. I understand this may be difficult anyway, given middle class loyalties lie with the family, and hence, their alliances. But conditions will change and the reality is I think progressive
politics will be an easier sell without the shadow of Thaksin.
Thailand, what next?
Violent Red shirt???
ONLY after multiple illegal stealing of governance ( coup, 2 judicial coups, stealing MP allegiance by threats), did the Red shirt movement start.
The main cause of violence is the army support for the yellows. Otherwise, stability would be there like any normal place.
There might have been corruption. I do not know. Until a honest non corrupt (i.e. non yellow/army appointed) court gives a verdict, it is all hearsay
Thailand, what next?
Hi Barry…ditto:-)plus”you are looking for an argument”
Thailand, what next?
Thank you for your comment. As you work for the prestigious Bangkok Post, you might have read about what NCCC did in the past few years without me putting them in this entry.
My point is the difference in how NCCC handling two cases of two different parties. I said nothing about the merit of the scheme. Please read again. 😉
Thailand’s invitation to violence
The assumption seems to be that those who have seized power outside the law, again, have somehow made a mistake; have made a good faith design error in their structure of state.
They have not made a mistake. They think of themselves as essentially different from superior to the people of Thailand and have no intention of building a democracy. They never have and they never will.
The reason the Democrat Party is so weak is that it despises democracy and the people of Thailand. This is not a question of an honest mistake. This system was designed from the top down to get exactly the results it does get.
The people need to write-off the government of Thailand and exercise democracy directly : organize elections of their own and elect a parliament on their own. Then write a Constitution of their own. Or the other way ’round. Politics is not rocket science … unless you are trying to defend indefensible privilege, then the wicket gets sticky. The ‘elite’ … the ‘best and the brightest’ … in Thailand are hopeless.
Thailand, what next?
Conversations with my wife:
Q-I don’t think a military coup helps the democratic -process..
A-Don’t want to talk about this…All politicians are corrupt, Thai army love and protect Thai people….
Q-But how do you reconcile that with the deaths of Thai people and extrajudicial executions over the last 50 years?
A-Don’t talk about this, it is dangerous and they might come for you too……
Q- OK then…next subject?
A democratic anti-corruption discourse for Thailand
You are right, again I was not precise. It is true that there is a “red threat” and a “red mess” discourse, both have considerable convening and mobilising power – as could be witnessed over the last 7 months.
By their vary nature, discourses are constantly shifting in teir relevance in explaining the world for a certain group of people.In other words the discourse landscape looked different in 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2014.
In order to stabilise their rule and manufacture consent, the military cannot only rely on one discourse community, but would need to reach out to as many as possible.
And this is precisely what I doubt. By its very nature, a coercive and repressive approach (which is a “purge” by definition) resonates only with the “red threat” discourse community.
Obviously, there are no numbers to relate the strengths of these discourse communities to each other; moreover, discursive power is not only determined by numbers, as elite discourses show.
However, it is my perception from observing the various protest waves over the last years that the “red mess” discourse by far outweighs the “red threat”.
ANU No Coup
The army is not dying for the Nation, my poor misguided friend. Shooting your own citizens is not usually called “heroism”
Free “head exam” available, if anyone is interested.
Ramkhamhaeng: A view from inside the stadium
It appears because of a number of arms and deadly weapons found at the Red Shirts rally site at Aksa road/Uthayan area, the army had to drain the canals thereat; and even more deadly armory of guns, bombs et al were found, apparently dumped by many murderous elements freely mixing, as usual, with the Red Shirts.
Wherever Red Shirts gather. it is a given that people will be shot or maimed.
It is a running joke during past Red Shirts rallies that the safest place to be in Bangkok is where the Red Shirts leaders are: a guarantee that no M79 grenade will be launched or lobbed thereat.
A democratic anti-corruption discourse for Thailand
Vichai got he and his Demo friends wanted. Now we wait and see if they can get to pick the fruits.
(btw, you should know by now, what Vichai and the Demos supporters mean by “peaceful” or “legit”!)
Thailand’s invitation to violence
Daniel S
Suggest that you ask your wife to provide a detailed account of how Thaksin was corrupt. She has been a victim of repeated propaganda that because Thaksin is filthy rich, he must have cheated. Sure, the guy is enviable rich, but he had become rags to rich before he entered politics. We should give a credential to investigators appointed by the previous junta to sniff through all evidences for years but eventually ended up with almost nothing to pin Thaksin.
Some people believed Thaksin’s asset seizure is the hard evidence against the man. But fews know that the court simply use arithmatic of Thaksin’s networth ‘before and after’ public office tenure. Meaning he must do no other business during his time as Prime Minister, including his stock value must be frozen.
Sam
Is there an ideological cleavage in 2014?
[…] Read original article here: http://www.newmandala.org/2014/05/22/is-there-an-ideological-cleavage-in-2014/ […]
Undoing Yudhoyono’s Sectarian Legacy
[…] groups such as Shia and Ahmadiyah (a frequent criticism of the Yudhoyono government relates to its failure to protect such groups from persecution). Coupled with Prabowo’s willingness to adopt a more ‘Islamic’ tone in his campaign […]
Thailand’s invitation to violence
Democracy is a bitch, isn’t it? From Boston to Bangkok, when the swinish multitude keeps electing the other side and you for whatever reason but definitely unpopular can’t get back in.
Only the reaction to rejection by the electorate these days is no longer a shot from a grassy knoll in the West anymore. Let’s limit it to character assassination instead.
In the Third World however, unsurprisingly one might say, the opposition to such popular opposition in office can still take violent forms, be it directly or supported by the state security apparatus backing the conservative forces or civil war. And not just in the Third World one could say, in Europe itself as we have witnessed in the Ukraine.
So what next? At this rate, as constitutional means, dare I say democratic institutions have been manifestly found wanting, more than likely it will descend into the abyss of civil war.
Next door in Burma the only difference is the ancien regime clings on to power by a bogus constitution as it has by necessity for survival had to change tack, but it’s looking like heading towards renewed confrontation and perhaps violent conflict.
I guess we just have to let them fight it out the medieval way. But I doubt it if the West will wash its hands off whatever scenario being played out in any case, if not already involved from the start.
Some things never change, do they?
Thailand’s invitation to violence
[…] Thailand’s invitation to violence/ Anti-coup in Khon Kaen/ Anti-coup actions continue in Bangkok (see pic, left)/ Angry anti-coup protests despite junta warnings/ […]