Amdrew,
It might not be a landslide, but when you consider that PT was playing with the ‘third string’ against the mightest the Democrats could muster, it was a pretty good shallacking.
Given New Mandala‘s long-term interest in sufficience economy, this is an interesting observation from the Wall Street Journal:
It’s notable that during the campaign the Democrats dropped references to a “sufficiency economy.” In the 1970s, King Bhumibol Adulyadej coined the term to discourage indebtedness caused by overinvestment and overconsumption in rural areas. Since then it has grown into a nationalist and sometimes autarkic philosophy. Following the 2006 coup, the military junta revived the idea and the Democrats continued to pay lip service to it after Prime Minister Abhisit took office in late 2008.
Most Thais realize that such romanticism is a relic of the past. Mr. Thaksin encouraged rural residents to start local industries and produce tradable goods. Rural incomes expanded, and many farmers have traveled abroad and understand that greater opportunities await if the government removes obstacles to growth.
This morning the count is Peua Thai Party 264, Democrat Party 160, and BJT far out in the cold with only 35 seats. Andrew Walker made the comment that Peua Thai didn’t receive over 50% of the popular vote, but I really wonder if you count the spoiled ballots (1.7 million) and check how many put an X over the party name rather than in the correct box, this might account for the difference between the election poll results and the exit poll data.
Also, I am suspicious about the results in Bangkok that showed the Democrats getting 22 seats when the polls only projected them to get 7. That said, I know from personal contacts that Peua Thai had a lock on Nakhon Pathom because few wanted to vote against the dictates of the local mafia leader, so I suppose the heavy handedness all balances out in Thailand’s version of Chicago-style politics.
In a way, PT voters have faithfully followed Prayuth’s advice to vote for a “good person” and that good person for them is Yingluck. Prayuth must be regretting his own advice by now and is trying very hard to find something nice to say to his boss as you can see in NM masthead for the past few days.
Let us wait and see what happens in the next few days because anti-Thaksin and anti-democratic forces will regroup and launch their next move.
Had Abhisit embraced the red shirt movement, today he would have been re-elected. This was either a strategic mistake by the Dems or else the Royalists pulled the strings of the PM. Either way it was a losing strategy. Thaksin will come back in due time and will pull the strings as he did now. For the sake of real change in the powerstructure of Thai politics this is a positive result. For too long the rural people didn’t have any representation and voice. Thaksinism will eventually go but democracy has a chance now that the poor people are more enlightened.
This is a great victory for Thailand. Who ever think they can play a dirty trick to bring down this government will have to face with 14 millions people who vote for Yingluck. This is a very strong victory for the Prue Thai Party since this election was under a great influence of the Democrat. The democrat used all kinds of dirty tricks in this election but they still lost, they never learnt from the past.
It isn’t over until they dealt with the red/yellow cards storm that is sure to come up next. Then maybe some court decision will try and dissolve the PT party again. Doubt the elite will ever go down quietly.
Note what I said in the interview: “The point I’m making here is Thailand is very different to what it was in 1992 and I’m not sure that the Democrats have been able to adapt to that very profound transformation in Thai society.” I am clearly not suggesting a direct correlation between internet use or mobile phone ownership and the Democrat vote. I am using these as indicators of the extent of change in Thailand that has taken place since the Democrats last won government as a result of an election. AW
Tony, I’d say that a statement based on a sample of “most of the PTP supporters [you] talk to” is a bit tenuous, wouldn’t you agree? You are the one drawing the conclusion that increasing Internet connectivity and cell phone access are correlated with the Democrats’ shrinking popularity. And remember, correlation does not equal causation.
In 1992 (the last time the Dems won a [legitimate] election) what did the (any) opposition have in terms of access to alternative information? Not the newspapers. Not the TV stations. Maybe some community radio stations? Increased access to the Internet and cell phones, for better or for worse, means increased and faster access to information and alternative points of view. Whether 5% or 50% or more of PTP supporters currently have such access is somewhat irrelevant – an increase from 0% in 1992 to 5% in 2011 is still significant statistics-wise… maybe it’s time you study up.
Fantastic and well researched book. Thank you for making it easier for me to learn more about Thai history. My Thai friends are surprised to find topics like this covered in english language.
One mistake to note on page 194. Deer Park was not the location of Buddha’s enlightenment. Deer Park was the location where he first shared the Dharma with his disciples after his enlightenment. The location of the Buddha’s enlightenment is called Bodh Gaya. Deer Park’s importance is no less important for Buddhists/ Buddhism. I would suggest it is more important. The enlightenment of the Buddha was of course the beginning but if he had not shared what he had learned with others there would be no Buddhism.
I am considering doing graduate writing on the role of aviation in maintaining Siamese/ Thai national independance and its role in political power both domestic and international. Upon finalizing and starting the project I would appreciate any imput and advice you could give me with sources of research and help with interpreters in Thailand.
Again, many thanks for writing this book and I hope to see more like it in the future.
[…] Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, writing for the New Mandala, hopes that Thailand will rebuild its confidence in the electoral and democratic processes Tonight’s result is a remarkable return […]
Tarrin presented himself as one counterexample of your assertion.
Now how about you trying to proof your own assertion at all? Have you perhaps conducted a massive amount of research to prove that ‘most’ red shirts have no internet connection then? Judging from your seeming confidence I assume you have, yes?
@ Interested Party #18:
Thanks. That one was already included.
The lower Isan shows more reports of vote-buying than other parts of the country. Does this signify the fierce competition between PT and BJT in that area? In constituencies with close races, vote-buying would make more of a difference than in the clear-cut constituencies of Upper Isan or the South for example.
Tarrin, I’d say a statement based on a sample of one, yourself, is a bit tenuous wouldn’t you agree? But are you trying to suggest that the majority, or even HALF of the UDD/PTP supporters have computers and actually use them for news and research? Please give me a break, I’ve lived here far to long to suffer such an insult to my intelligence. Walker has no way to prove what he is trying to insinuate without doing a massive amount of research and interviewing to see if his hypothesis is correct.
But this is what Walker does often, takes irrelevant, inappropriate samples, statistics, and correlations, and uses them to shoehorn his ideology into something resembling academia. Quite sad really – especially since he holds a Ph.D. and a position where he could do great good if he applied himself.
Now come on Andrew, you’ve got this website, you’ve got this “fellowship,” you work at a university, I am politely asking you to either be an open demagogue, or to stop disgracing science, reason, and all those that sacrificed throughout history to expand our collective body of knowledge and methodologies, and BE A REAL ACADEMIC.
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Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
Amdrew,
It might not be a landslide, but when you consider that PT was playing with the ‘third string’ against the mightest the Democrats could muster, it was a pretty good shallacking.
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
Given New Mandala‘s long-term interest in sufficience economy, this is an interesting observation from the Wall Street Journal:
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
This morning the count is Peua Thai Party 264, Democrat Party 160, and BJT far out in the cold with only 35 seats. Andrew Walker made the comment that Peua Thai didn’t receive over 50% of the popular vote, but I really wonder if you count the spoiled ballots (1.7 million) and check how many put an X over the party name rather than in the correct box, this might account for the difference between the election poll results and the exit poll data.
Also, I am suspicious about the results in Bangkok that showed the Democrats getting 22 seats when the polls only projected them to get 7. That said, I know from personal contacts that Peua Thai had a lock on Nakhon Pathom because few wanted to vote against the dictates of the local mafia leader, so I suppose the heavy handedness all balances out in Thailand’s version of Chicago-style politics.
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
In a way, PT voters have faithfully followed Prayuth’s advice to vote for a “good person” and that good person for them is Yingluck. Prayuth must be regretting his own advice by now and is trying very hard to find something nice to say to his boss as you can see in NM masthead for the past few days.
Let us wait and see what happens in the next few days because anti-Thaksin and anti-democratic forces will regroup and launch their next move.
Can the Democrats make it six in a row?
Poll results can be found here:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
It’s time for idiots to bow out.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
Had Abhisit embraced the red shirt movement, today he would have been re-elected. This was either a strategic mistake by the Dems or else the Royalists pulled the strings of the PM. Either way it was a losing strategy. Thaksin will come back in due time and will pull the strings as he did now. For the sake of real change in the powerstructure of Thai politics this is a positive result. For too long the rural people didn’t have any representation and voice. Thaksinism will eventually go but democracy has a chance now that the poor people are more enlightened.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
This is a great victory for Thailand. Who ever think they can play a dirty trick to bring down this government will have to face with 14 millions people who vote for Yingluck. This is a very strong victory for the Prue Thai Party since this election was under a great influence of the Democrat. The democrat used all kinds of dirty tricks in this election but they still lost, they never learnt from the past.
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
Now tell me if this doesn,t look like Thailands version of Bonnie and Clyde? For this beautiful country,i hope not.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
It isn’t over until they dealt with the red/yellow cards storm that is sure to come up next. Then maybe some court decision will try and dissolve the PT party again. Doubt the elite will ever go down quietly.
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
Congratulations !
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
Note what I said in the interview: “The point I’m making here is Thailand is very different to what it was in 1992 and I’m not sure that the Democrats have been able to adapt to that very profound transformation in Thai society.” I am clearly not suggesting a direct correlation between internet use or mobile phone ownership and the Democrat vote. I am using these as indicators of the extent of change in Thailand that has taken place since the Democrats last won government as a result of an election. AW
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
Tony, I’d say that a statement based on a sample of “most of the PTP supporters [you] talk to” is a bit tenuous, wouldn’t you agree? You are the one drawing the conclusion that increasing Internet connectivity and cell phone access are correlated with the Democrats’ shrinking popularity. And remember, correlation does not equal causation.
In 1992 (the last time the Dems won a [legitimate] election) what did the (any) opposition have in terms of access to alternative information? Not the newspapers. Not the TV stations. Maybe some community radio stations? Increased access to the Internet and cell phones, for better or for worse, means increased and faster access to information and alternative points of view. Whether 5% or 50% or more of PTP supporters currently have such access is somewhat irrelevant – an increase from 0% in 1992 to 5% in 2011 is still significant statistics-wise… maybe it’s time you study up.
Review of Ruth
Dr. Ruth,
Fantastic and well researched book. Thank you for making it easier for me to learn more about Thai history. My Thai friends are surprised to find topics like this covered in english language.
One mistake to note on page 194. Deer Park was not the location of Buddha’s enlightenment. Deer Park was the location where he first shared the Dharma with his disciples after his enlightenment. The location of the Buddha’s enlightenment is called Bodh Gaya. Deer Park’s importance is no less important for Buddhists/ Buddhism. I would suggest it is more important. The enlightenment of the Buddha was of course the beginning but if he had not shared what he had learned with others there would be no Buddhism.
I am considering doing graduate writing on the role of aviation in maintaining Siamese/ Thai national independance and its role in political power both domestic and international. Upon finalizing and starting the project I would appreciate any imput and advice you could give me with sources of research and help with interpreters in Thailand.
Again, many thanks for writing this book and I hope to see more like it in the future.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
[…] Walker and Nicholas Farrelly, writing for the New Mandala, hopes that Thailand will rebuild its confidence in the electoral and democratic processes Tonight’s result is a remarkable return […]
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
A great analysis. Thank you.
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
Tony –
Tarrin presented himself as one counterexample of your assertion.
Now how about you trying to proof your own assertion at all? Have you perhaps conducted a massive amount of research to prove that ‘most’ red shirts have no internet connection then? Judging from your seeming confidence I assume you have, yes?
Thai Election: Updates
@ Interested Party #18:
Thanks. That one was already included.
The lower Isan shows more reports of vote-buying than other parts of the country. Does this signify the fierce competition between PT and BJT in that area? In constituencies with close races, vote-buying would make more of a difference than in the clear-cut constituencies of Upper Isan or the South for example.
Reports of vote-buying from the (non-representative) crowd-sourced sample (see http://www.thaielectionwatch.net) :
Total: 35
North: 7
Upper Isan: 3
Lower Isan: 12
Central: 4
BKK: 3
East: 2
Upper South: 2
Deep South: 2
Debunking Democrat dominance in the South
Aren’t there 14 provinces in the South? 9+3=12. 2 missing?
Chumphon
Krabi
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Narathiwat
Pattani
Phang Nga
Phatthalung
Phuket
Ranong
Satun
Songkhla
Surat Thani
Trang
Yala
Thai Election 2011: Early predictions
Tarrin, I’d say a statement based on a sample of one, yourself, is a bit tenuous wouldn’t you agree? But are you trying to suggest that the majority, or even HALF of the UDD/PTP supporters have computers and actually use them for news and research? Please give me a break, I’ve lived here far to long to suffer such an insult to my intelligence. Walker has no way to prove what he is trying to insinuate without doing a massive amount of research and interviewing to see if his hypothesis is correct.
But this is what Walker does often, takes irrelevant, inappropriate samples, statistics, and correlations, and uses them to shoehorn his ideology into something resembling academia. Quite sad really – especially since he holds a Ph.D. and a position where he could do great good if he applied himself.
Now come on Andrew, you’ve got this website, you’ve got this “fellowship,” you work at a university, I am politely asking you to either be an open demagogue, or to stop disgracing science, reason, and all those that sacrificed throughout history to expand our collective body of knowledge and methodologies, and BE A REAL ACADEMIC.