Comments

Is that rather amateurishly drawn projection for 2009 and 2010 actually accurate?

The following source claims the 2011 military budget of 170 billion baht is just 1.5% of GDP:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/192037/military-spending-under-fire

WLH #10 :
“Missing diamond or not, the two governments ought to be good friends on principle alone.”
But the fact is they are NOT – in fact look like (bitter?) enemies.
Such divisions are the way ruling classes fall.

Tonkhao – 25

You should find out more about the role of Chamlong in relation to the massacre of students in 1976. Unfortunately, it’s not written in conventional history books or discussed on ASTV!

It may not be written but it is known or suspected, but it’s rewriting history to declare 1992 to be a clash of the elites. This was the first time that the Thai middle class really flexed their muscles, and from a more mature population rather than just being students. Did it have long term effects? I’m not sure, but what it did do was remove Suchinda from power in the short term. To me that was a great result. Suchinda wanted to take over the role that Prem had perfected so successfully a few years before, but in Bangkok many of those who had supported the removal of Chatchai by the army were not prepared to accept this.

I think both you and Tarrin are allowing your dislike of Chamlong to cloud your intelligence regarding 1992. Mind you, I guess you would say the same about my dislike of Thaksin.

Freedom from Fear

Within a system which denies the existence of basic human rights, fear tends to be the order of the day. Fear of imprisonment, fear of torture, fear of death, fear of losing friends, family, property or means of livelihood, fear of poverty, fear of isolation, fear of failure. A most insidious form of fear is that which masquerades as common sense or even wisdom, condemning as foolish, reckless, insignificant or futile the small, daily acts of courage which help to preserve man’s self-respect and inherent human dignity. It is not easy for a people conditioned by fear under the iron rule of the principle that might is right to free themselves from the enervating miasma of fear. Yet even under the most crushing state machinery courage rises up again and again, for fear is not the natural state of civilized man.

The wellspring of courage and endurance in the face of unbridled power is generally a firm belief in the sanctity of ethical principles combined with an historical sense that despite all setbacks the condition of man is set on an ultimate course for both spiritual and material advancement. It is his capacity for self-improvement and self-redemption which most distinguishes man from the mere brute. At the root of human responsibility is the concept of perfection, the urge to achieve it, the intelligence to find a path towards it, and the will to follow that path if not to the end at least the distance needed to rise above individual limitations and environmental impediments. It is man’s vision of a world fit for rational, civilized humanity which leads him to dare and to suffer to build societies free from want and fear. Concepts such as truth, justice and compassion cannot be dismissed as trite when these are often the only bulwarks which stand against ruthless power.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

I do like Shawn Crispin and am now starting to worry a bit about his future. It seems like roughly half his articles in recent years have consisted of twisting Sean Boonpracong’s words (with half of those related to a single comment about the reds and weapons that was made, I understand, a year ago, also in passing).

Now, if the palace whisperers go away, Shawn will have to go back to doing the hard work of being an actual journalist.

I think this would be good for both Shawn and Thailand in the end, as he is a decent journalist, when he doesn’t get tempted by the easy out provided by gossip or “misunderstanding” falling into his lap.

He should also be fined 1ooo Baht each time he cites “Diplomats”, but maybe George Kent would just cover that from US embassy PR funds. I’ve always suspected that he is the diplomat in question.

Agoda, you can also find Sean Boonpracong’s personal response on facebook page called “Friends of The Nation” in response to Bangkok Dave’s post on 23 September 2010. I hope this clarifies the issue.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Friends-of-The-Nation/147232991936?filter=3#!/pages/Friends-of-The-Nation/147232991936

Lily, # 58

It would be interesting to ask Sean himself directly about Crispin’s quotes. I have met Sean several times (the latest one being on the 19th) and will meet him again soon.

I echo the comments made by Leah Hoyt both on Crispin’s credibility as well as the previous feedback to Jonny. I would like to add a few more comments in response to Jonny.

Jonny, your analysis of Thailand based on the caste system and/or aristocrat versus proletariat struggle is fraud. It is completely out of context. Perhaps it is rather difficult to have a reasonable speculation of the future prospect of Thailand, especially the questions of elections when you do not even have a good grasp of the current situation. I find your analysis on the gross injustice between the rich and poor is very thin as it is a reflection of how little you know Thailand’s modern history and its complicated setting of the current political crisis. Furthermore, your preoccupation over Thaksin and his role is misleading because you have completely missed the complicated power structure and the entrenched elite coalitions in Thailand, which is much larger than Thaksin. These coalitions have proved to be very dynamic and flexible up until very recently. It is clear that you were unable to explain the nuances of this critical political juncture in Thailand by simplifying this as the class warfare. The conflicts cut across various dimensions. The portraying of Thaksin’s cronyism and personal interest is not entirely wrong but it does not provide any worthwhile contribution to the discussion on New Mandela because I believe most of us have followed the development of Thai politics very closely over the past several decades and have moved beyond the focus on one person or shallow battle among the elite.

I agree with Small Axe and some of the comments that have already been provided on the prospect of elections in Thailand. In short, the question of elections will largely depend on how succession will occur and what kind of implications it will have for the existing elite coalitions and political transition in Thailand. My major concern is that there is not a coherent plan or view in this regard at least among those in power. Furthermore, I find the political move of the establishment become increasingly irrational and fragmented over the recent years. In my view, that is probably one of the fundamental causes for the political instability in Thailand at least in the coming years before elections can actually take place.

LesAbbey – 23

I have no objection with you defending the 1992 movement or how yo u like to see it, I’m just telling you another version of the story that the Thai press never want to show since it might just inferred that those massacre in 1992 actually die for nothing. Whether you want to believe is up to you.
The coup of 2006 is the testament that the massacre of 1992 didn’t change anything but solidify the establishment power and weaken the military sec and the 1997 constitution was just a reform of the old system just because the economy was so madly damaged from the crisis. You have to understand that prior to 1992 the military and the establishment are not a unify force within the elite group. There were some officers that were not really found of the establishment but still be able to advance in career to have a say in the arm force’s affair. After the 1992, however, the arm force political position has been weaken dramatically, those officer who were not closely align with the establishment would not be able to advance in their career. That is why we see general today who are either impartial or clearly took side with the establishment.
If you really want to compare which evens are similar, I would say the 1992 and 1973 play out quite similarly while the 1976 was more similar to the 2010.